Jenkins' future

[MoneyballMan]

I agree on the Jenks vs Klesko, but if it's $9 mil option for Jenks (and $4m+ for Mench in order to keep the Menchkins platoon going) vs. $2 mil for Klesko???? Just another idea. Like I said, I'm not suggesting that is our best option. Just an option.

[TooLiveBrew]

Even with all the time, effort & research put into this thread thus far, I really think our 'veteran LF for one year' is Jenkins. I think the team will decline his option, then negotiate a one to two year deal at less $. If that can't get done, then he'll be gone. I've loved Jenks from day one, and want him back. Aside from going out & signing or trading for a big star, I just don't know how many better options there are out there (given that it's to hold LF until LaPorta is ready).

[bsglorydays]

I really thought he would excel at a straight platoon, something like .290, 25 homers, and 80RBIs.

 

How do we know he won't? That's why you can't judge a player based on 2/3 of a season. They can only be judged on a full season. Throughout a long season, most players hit slumps along the way.

 

I remember when Carlos Zambrano was having a "bad year". Does anybody still think he is?

 

Jenkins has some years left in him yet. Probably not with the Brewers and probably not in a full time role. If he does leave the Brewers for whatever reason after this season, I will be one of the fans standing and cheering when he returns to Miller Park in a different uniform. He has been nothing but loyal, nothing but fan-friendly, and nothing but a hard working team player for the time he has been here.

 

Unfortunately, some of the people that bash Jenkins now are the same people that wanted him to stay when he signed his contract and the same people that would have been mad at the Brewers management if they had allowed him to leave (not pointing fingers at anybody here - just stating a fact from the conversations that I have had over the years).

[BrewCrewForever]

I dunno about Jenks hitting .290, but those 25 HR's are still a possibility. And maybe not quite 80 RBI but maybe 60 or 70.

[monty57]

Jenks and Mench should be higher than a lot of LFers as they are being batting against pitchers they should hit. Does not suprise me one bit he is at 13 in rankings. Now let him play against lefties and that number will start to drop

 

That's exactly what I was alluding to when I mentioned OPS is a skewed stat, but I didn't want to upset anyone and cause the thread to go into a discussion about the validity of OPS. Geno's had some great posts about this in other threads.

 

I'm not interested in anyone being paid more than $5 million to be average. We can find average with someone still in arby years via trade or try Gross, Gwynn or Nix for a year.

 

But it's really not that easy. The only above average players on the list that are pre-arby are Chris Duncan and Josh Willingham, and neither of those two are going anywhere. The rest of the above average list consists of Manny Ramirez ($17MM), Barry Bonds ($15.5MM), Holliday ($4.4MM final arby year), Soriano ($10MM first year of riduculous deal), Lee ($11.5MM first year of riduculous deal), Dunn ($10.5MM free agent or $13MM option), Matsui ($13MM), Gonzalez ($7.2MM), Burrell ($13.25MM) and Byrnes ($4.575MM free agent after season).

 

The below average list goes down pretty quickly, with Ryan Church (#15) at .761, Reggie Willits (#16) at .754, Jason Bay (#17) at .735, Raul Ibanez (#18) at .701 and Craig Monroe (#19) at .667. This really makes me believe that a season of Mench / Gross could land us square in the middle of mediocrity.

 

Lee and Soriano proved last season that to get an even slightly above average left fielder (#'s 8 & 9 OPS LF respectively), you're going to have to mortgage your future. I mentioned earlier that Gross would be an option as part of a platoon, but I think he'll be a step down from Jenkins both offensively and defensively. If that means we use the money to upgrade elsewhere, that may be a good option, but downgrading talent simply to cut costs is hopefully what we got out of when the Seligs sold the team.

 

As I said earlier, I would love to ditch both Jenkins and Mench after the season if it meant getting Holliday or Dunn on the free agent market, and $13-14MM is probably around what they're going to cost. However, they will need to be singed to a multi-year deal, which may mean not signing other members of the team long term. Seeing Jenkins and a righty platoon next season until LaPorte is ready, hopefully by 2009 could be a good way to go. If LaPorte isn't ready by 2009, then we'd be stuck, but he will be 24, and his hitting doesn't seem to be a problem. I'd think he'd be able to learn how to play LF in a season and a half. He'd have to be able to beat Craig Monroe's .667 wouldn't hehttp://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

[MoneyballMan]

That's exactly what I was alluding to when I mentioned OPS is a skewed stat, but I didn't want to upset anyone and cause the thread to go into a discussion about the validity of OPS. Geno's had some great posts about this in other threads.

 

Oh, come on, I love it when the threads veer out of control! Seriously, I'm glad you didn't as well. Everyone assumes because of my "moneyballman" that I'm a huge OPS guy, but I agree that it's just one stat among many that needs consideration. But it always seems like a logical, easy stat to handle many discussions/comparisons. I just happened to have read that book before registering on BF.net and can never think of snappy screen names!

 

But come on, let's head this thread off into a statistical discussion vortex!!

[monty57]

I really think our 'veteran LF for one year' is Jenkins. I think the team will decline his option, then negotiate a one to two year deal at less $. If that can't get done, then he'll be gone.

 

I agree he's one of our best options next season, and I think it's likely he'll be in Milwaukee, barring a catastrophic meltdown for the remainder of the season. I think he'll have at least one more hot month and end up somewhere around an .800 OPS as long as he doesn't face many lefties. The question was raised earlier and I'm not sure of the answer. If they decline the option, can they negotiate with him as a free agent, or is there a period where they are "out of the running?"

 

Moneyballman, I like the Klesko idea if he can still play LF. He's got a .368 OBP / .438 Slg in San Fran (not really a hitter's paradise). He's got an .802 OPS vs. righties (191 AB) and an .832 OPS vs. lefties (only 35 ABs). Three year splits, he's got .815 overall OPS, .846 vs. righties, .721 vs. lefties.

 

We'd probably still want to platoon him, but if he can play a reasonable defense in LF, he'd cost about $7MM less than Jenkins ($6.5MM after Jankins' buyout), and being 36 he may sign a one or two year deal. If they could work out a two-year / $3.5MM deal (assuming he can still play LF), I'd do that, forego the option on Jenkins and see if there was any way we could then afford Coco.

 

I guess first I'd see if anyone would trade for Jenkins. When do the Brewers have to decide on the option, and is it "legal" to pick up the option and then immediately trade the player?

[MoneyballMan]

I believe it's fine to pick up the option and then trade him. When you pick up the option, he's under contract like any other player and tradeable.

 

What I'm not sure about (with the new CBA) is what we can or can't do with him if we decline his option. It's different than declining arbitration, so I think we could negotiate to bring him back at a lower salary. But someone is going to need to confirm or correct that.

 

Re: Klesko, also remember that he missed almost a whole year, so this is his first full year again. Assuming his age doesn't catch up to him, he should be serviceable for next year and possibly 09. And you and I agree - it's the $$ that makes him at all attractive. I like the idea of using the savings to retain Cordero!

[joepepsi]

Another possible replacement is Melvin Mora. He's overpaid and on the DL right now. He'll make about $8.5 million in each of 2008 and 2009.

 

He skills have eroded a bit but is still pulling in a .453 slugging, gets on base, can run pretty well, should still be able to play LF. If the Orioles paid a few million of next year's salary, the Brewers could always try and trade him off before 2009. Both those things would ease that contract a bit.

[DrWood]

after reading the posts, I still don't see a **likely to happen** better option than bringing Jenkins back.

The team is mediocre vs. RH hitting (look up the splits), and I don't want to see one of the few guys over .800 OPS vs RH leave the team.

[BrewCrewRising]

Question: If we decline the option on Jenkins next year and then offer arby, do we get the draft picks? And all this talk of average/below average, where does he fall in terms of type of FA?

[lukevan]

Question: If we decline the option on Jenkins next year and then offer arby, do we get the draft picks? And all this talk of average/below average, where does he fall in terms of type of FA?

 

I don't think we get any picks if we decline the option.

[hauser42]

I can come up with two better options that we can have in the OF off the top of my head.

 

#1 would be Raul Ibanez of the Mariners. Brewers would have to go out and trade for him, but he would be well worth it for the year if this team wants to contend. Guy gets very little love but is a upgrade over what we have in LF right now.

 

#2 Sign Mike Cameron he could play LF and play some CF when Hall needs a rest. He would be a better option even in center but I only see him a one or two year option and then you have to move Hall back.

[endaround]

1) Ibanez? How is a guy who'll be 36 next year whose hitting .269 .327 .435 and who can't play defense any type of upgrade?

 

2). Cameron is going to be 35 next year and is not the same player he was in Seattle. He's currently hitting .251 .323 .435.

 

Just because you heard of the guy doesn't make him anything like an upgrade.

[RockCoCougars]

I would rather have Jenkins than Ibanez for sure. He is garbage.

 

Cameron may interest me in a Reggie Sanders type way - if he would play for the same type contract (1-2 years @3-4 million a year).