Jenkins' future

[DuWayne Steurer]

Jenks' OPS by month this year.

 

April -- .943

May -- .852

June --.735

July -- .586

 

 

That's not exactly a trend that shows a rosy outlook.

 

As far as finding a replacement for Jenks for next year and beyond, it can't be all that hard to find a guy to put up a .800 OPS when he only has to face opposite hand pitching. And I'll bet such a player comes a lot cheaper than 9 million dollars.

 

When Jenks started hot, I was a proponent of re-upping him for next year, but that was with the caveat that he stay productive and finish the year with something approaching an .850 or better OPS, considering he's been shielded by and large from left handed pitching.

 

Yes, he does have an .833 OPS vs righties this year, but just like his overall numbers, I'm sure most of that was built up in that hot streak in April.

[monty57]

If Jenkins is gone after this season, who will be our LF next year? Right now, the Jenkins/Mench platoon has put up passable numbers. If Jenkins plays out this season and the Brewers don't pick up his option, we will have a Gross/Mench platoon next season. I've never been nearly as down on Gross as some on this board, but it appears likely that Jenkins could outperform Gross next season.

 

The way I see it, LaPorta is our LF of the future, starting in 2009. It's possible, but I doubt they bring him up as a starter out of Spring Training next season. Therefore, we'll have a one-season gap where we need a LF, and I would think it'd be hard to find a free agent to sign for one year.

 

The big problem is that we should be going into next year with visions of the World Series on our minds. LF is an offensive position, and Gross/Mench could very easily bomb.

 

To me, it comes down to these options for LF:

 

1) Jenkins / Mench

2) Gross / Mench

3) LaPorta a year earlier than expected

4) Veteran FA who will either sign a one-year deal or agree to start one year and then sit behind LaPorta for the rest of the contract

5) Gwynn in center, Hall in left

6) Make a trade now or in the offseason that brings in a LF that will be here next year

 

If we can pull off a trade, I'm all for it. If not, I think that we'll see a Jenkins / Mench platoon for one more year.

[DuWayne Steurer]

f not, I think that we'll see a Jenkins / Mench platoon for one more year.

 

I can't realistically see them paying a Jenks/Mench platoon upwards and over 13 million dollars to be average at best.

 

Mench has been passable, only because, like Jenkins, he's been shielded from facing same-side pitching for the most part.

[MoneyballMan]

Not from lack of effort, MoneyBall!

 

I knew it would eventually, but it was fun while it lasted!

 

Although it still hasn't gotten quite to the point of past threads on the topic.

 

I guess we'll see where he ends the year (i.e. does he still get that hot 2nd half going). It may be easier said than done finding a replacement LF for less $ in the .850-.900 OPS range (even just against righties). For any kind of guaranteed production, you'll probably have to significantly overpay in FA given the limited options (which is what I understand to be the case this offseason without researching it on my own).

 

That doesn't mean I'm all for picking up his option, but just stating that it's a closer call than some have stated. And a lot still depends on how he finishes out the season. If he hits a bomb to win the NL championship in game 7, he'll be a beloved hero even if he batted .220 with .650 OPS in the regular season!

[GenoSeligPrieb]

Ooh, Monty, I'll go with what's behind Curtain # 4!

 

As RoCo just typed, I seriously doubt the Brewers will spend around $13,000,000 on Menchkins next year. For less money, I'll bet you can get a LF who's younger, and can play against both lefties and righties.

 

Do we bring in a stopgap, in the hope that LaPorta becomes closer to the bigs from college, a la Ryan Braun? Or do we just buy free agent Eric Byrnes for, say $10,000,000 (IF that will be enough to land him) to play LF or RF? Aaron Rowand? Andruw Jones? Torii Hunter? Adam Dunn?

 

That $13,000,000 freed up won;t necessarily go directly toward replacing Menchkins, I understand. But I'm excited about what Doug can do with that kind of money available to him!

[MoneyballMan]

Good point and Byrnes would be a great option (as I know others have mentioned as well).

 

Unless Jenkins hits that game-winning game 7 home run to get us into the world series...... Tough to let him go after the ticket tape parade.

[hauser42]

Brewers will be able to find a LFer in the offseason, either FA or trade.

 

Free agents will come here with the team being in the mix for a title the next couple of years. Have people forgotten that Sal Bando has left the building years ago?

[Tbadder]

I must say that I'm surprised and disappointed. I really thought he would excel at a straight platoon, something like .290, 25 homers, and 80RBIs. But right now he looks awful and his plate discpline has been downright poor. I think we're seeing the slow degradation of his career. I was hoping the Brewers would pick up his contract next year, but right now I'd say release him at the end of the year.

[FVBrewerFan]

Quote:

---

Therefore, we'll have a one-season gap where we need a LF, and I would think it'd be hard to find a free agent to sign for one year.

---

 

I don't think an OF acquired via FA or trade would necessarily be only a one year stop-gap. LaPorta is an unknown, and in my opinion Hall hasn't proven he can (or should) be a full tme starter in the OF LONG TERM.

 

It wasn't very long ago that the Brewers were over-stocked in the OF from AA up. Look at how things transpired. If we took a poll, I bet Hart was near the bottom of the list in who we thought would be an every day starter in 2007.

 

Frankly, I wouldn't even wait until next year. They need a bat today. And I think acquiring an OF is manageable salary wise.

[Fatter than Joey]

Can anyone suggest an alternative for Jenkins that will perform as well, and not cost $9mill next year?

 

It's really not fair to say this -- really its not Jenks for $9mill its Jenks+Mench for $13 -- we can do better than this.

 

I am not ready to gamble on LaPorta either -- at least as soon as 2009. It would be great if it happened, but I would really like to see the Brewers get an established OFer that could play for 3-4 seasons. -- If LaPorta kicks ass, then all the better.

[kmcasper23]

Will not be playing for Crew next year for $9 mil a season to be part time player. Team will not pick up option and will only be back at discounted rate. I am sure someone will pay for his services though.

[joepepsi]

Gary Sheffield~!

 

or Matt Stairs!!

[Loopee]

I'd be concerned that if Jenkins goes (which as some pointed out is likely) we only have one real lefty batting threat in the lineup. Really makes me think about trying to overpay Griffey to play here for a couple of years until we move to Hart Hall LaPorta.

[BrewCrewForever]

I have loved Jenks since day one. He never turned into a superstar. But he has been a solid player his entire career. Made an all-star team and had some other all-star type seasons. Hes always had great defense and if it were not for a couple of injuries would have even better career numbers. He is older now and will never get you 30+ HR's again but he is still a very solid platoon player. I still think this season he will get at least 20 or 25 HR's. I will always look at Jenks like I look at Cirillo. Good players who I loved watching when we had some just horrific teams playing here. As for next year, whatever happens, well it happens. If Jenks is elsewhere I will cheer for him there.

[JohnBriggs12]

I think a trade is the most likely way they will fill that spot and Jenkins could go in a package deal with a starting pitcher for an OF.

 

I don't see them throwing a long deal at a guy like Byrnes who wants 5 years.

 

If they went the FA route, I'd look for them to pursue guys like Dye or perhaps a Shannon Stewart who's been having a bit of comeback year. Neither of those guys can command anything long term.

[GAME05]

pretty much anyone of the age or declining ability that would accept a two-year contract would work for me. we'd have our stopgap for the meantime, and then 09 would be the year when we could gradually break in a guy like LaPorta.

[BrewCrewForever]

Yeah LaPorta should be good to go by 2009. So if we can keep Jenks for two more years to play LF and hit RHP Im all for that.

[monty57]

It may be easier said than done finding a replacement LF for less $ in the .850-.900 OPS range (even just against righties).

 

Of all Major League OF (not just LF) that qualify with enough ABs (ESPN didn't give a number that qualifies), there are currently 20 with an .850+ OPS, including 13 at .900+. There are only 9 LF at .850+ OPS (4 of them .900+).

 

Griffey, Byrnes, Dunn, Holliday and Rowand all fall into the .850+ category this season, and are, to one degree or other, on the market. Griffey, Holliday and Dunn are elite players, and I'd love to have any of them (although Griffey's injury history necessitates a strong back-up plan). Byrnes is a career .784 OPS player having a great year. Rowand is a career .800 OPS guy (.005 points higher than Jenkins' current OPS and .050 lower than Jenkins' career). There are 32 OF with .800+ OPS, or basically one per team.

 

Jenkins just misses the "qualifying" cut, as Hall has enough ABs at 288, but Jenkins doesn't at 254. If he qualified, he would be #33 in OPS amongst all OFs (#13 amongst LF) with an OPS of .795, falling between Nick Markakis and Carl Crawford. Jenkins has always been extremely streaky, so it doesn't surprise me at all that he looks bad right now. Sometimes (like now), he's very frustrating to watch. Sometimes, he's phenominal. Put the highs and the lows together, and you get an average. Now, I understand that OPS is a skewed stat that makes platoon players look better than they actually are, but since OPS is seen by many posters here as a good way to judge a player's offensive ability, I'll use it.

 

There are 30 teams in the majors, and based on OPS, Jenkins is the 13th best offensive LF in the Majors, making him above average offensively for his position. If we're going to complain, we should be dogging Mench and his .757 OPS against mainly left-handed pitching. A combo of Jenkins platooned with a minimum wage righty who can put up decent numbers vs. lefties equates to someone making $9.4MM with, say a combined .785 OPS, which puts that platoon at roughly the quivalent of a Carl Crawford or Bill Hall.

 

I would love to see them drop Jenkins and Mench if it means picking up Dunn of Holliday. Of course that would also assume that this move wouldn't keep them from re-signing everyone else on the team in years down the road. However, if that's not possible, I have no problem with keeping Jenkins one more season and then letting his salary drop off the books in time for us to re-sign Sheets or offer a long-term deal to Fielder.

 

Finally, I suggested LaPorta in 2009 because that is what the Brewers brass were hinting at when he was drafted. He's almost as old as Fielder and Braun, so it sounded like they want to fast track him. Plans sometimes play out the way you'd like and sometimes don't. I'd gladly change the plans for a Holliday or Dunn. I'd be less willing to make a move for someone like Byrnes who will probably cost as much or more than Jenkins next year, with similar numbers (albeit someone who can play everyday), and will potentially keep us from re-signing some players that are much more valuable to the continued success of the team.

[hauser42]

Monty wonderful post with great information and things to think about.

 

Jenks and Mench should be higher than a lot of LFers as they are being batting against pitchers they should hit. Does not suprise me one bit he is at 13 in rankings. Now let him play against lefties and that number will start to drop.

 

I'm all for Holliday just think Bush or Cappy are going to have to be part of the deal and some younger talent.

[BrewCrewForever]

Holliday would be a great replacement for Jenks, but I have a felling the asking price would be rather high.

[backup catchers]

While I respect Jenkin's time here and what he did for the organization I'm not interested in anyone being paid more than $5 million to be average. We can find average with someone still in arby years via trade or try Gross, Gwynn or Nix for a year. Somewhere along the line we should find out if those guys are good enough to play regularly. With the rest of the team locked up for a while it makes sense to take a small gamble on younger guys who, even if they aren't as good, could be cheap enough to pay others like Sheets or Coco their due.

[GAME05]

nice post, Monty. what i think about with players reaching career contract time is that they're going to demand a 5- or 6-year contract. so we'd have to hold LaPorta from a starting OF spot for an awful long time, to the point that he would age and lose a lot of prospect status.

 

in all this, I struggle to think of how to treat LaPorta in all this. is he the sure-fire player Melvin should be assuming will start sometime in 09 (and therefore change his FA/trade strategy right now); if he shouldn't be thought of much at all, since he's still a big project and because minor-leaguers don't pan out; or if there's some sort of middle-ground.

[MoneyballMan]

Excellent post - thank you for doing the research that I didn't!

 

I'm guessing that Dunn and Holliday may be more difficult to obtain than many may assume. Dunn is a huge fan favorite in Cinci (obviously that may not matter if they really want to move him) and if Colorado has any hope of improving they really need to hold on to Holliday and continue building.

 

I think the LaPorta plan (fast tracking) is accurate, but it's already being delayed by his injury. IF he finally gets to West Virginia this year, there's no way they jump him all the way to the bigs next year (unless he has such a spring that you'd be foolish not to bring him up). Even with a reasonable number of games at WV this year and a big spring, the highest I could see them starting him next year is AA with the potential of moving up. Even with fast-tracking, I can't see him arriving in Milwaukee until at least 2009. But obviously I'm not DM!

 

A previous poster mentioned Griffey again and I've kind of ignored all mention of him recently (maybe just my own bias from assuming he'd never find his way to Milwaukee). But maybe there is some logic there for 08 and possibly his option in 09 if LaPorta's not ready. However, I wouldn't do it if it costs us an arm and a leg in prospects.

[MoneyballMan]

How about someone like Klesko for a year or two? Could play LF regularly (hits LH and RH about the same) and could also spell Fielder at 1B (which we really didn't have other than Graff this year). And he shouldn't cost much more than the $1.75 he's making this year.

 

Just thought I'd toss his name out there as I haven't seen anyone mention him. I'm kind of neutral on him myself, but could be a veteran stop-gap until LaPorta arrives.

[BrewCrewForever]

Klesko wouldnt be bad, but he really is at about the same talent level as Jenkins. Actually because of defense Jenks is above him. Both are vets, but Id stick with Jenks over Klesko.