what can we expect from Dave Bush in 2009 and beyond?

[BREWCREW5]

Bush really looked like he turned the corner in 2008 after a tough time starting the year.

 

Discuss.

[BrewCrewForever]

I really like Dave Bush. I think he can be a solid #3. His biggest downfall is giving up the HR ball. He had an awesome WHIP this past season. I believe one of the best in the NL.

[brewjihad]

I think we can expect about a 4.5 ERA and durability to go about 200 innings. I wouldn't expect him to keep the really low WHIP and a better than career ERA like he did last year because of this:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs/4635_P_season_full_7_20080930.png

Considering that his k:bb and k/9 rates are going down a little bit, about a 4.5 ERA sounds right.

[Ennder]

His career ERA is 4.45 so at age 28 he'll probably be around there again.

[rluzinski]

His K rate has decreased the last 2 years; his BB rate has increased in the last 2 years. Not sure it's a fluke but it's concerning. I think he had a pretty lucky 2008.

 

I'll say 4.7 ERA, which still makes him fine for a #4.

[ILuvDaBush]

Can I still predict a Carpenter-like ascension to greatness? I want to believe.

[Ennder]

I definitely agree 2008 was fluky for him, he was a better pitcher in 2007 than 2008 but our terrible defense and random variation made the ERA look much worse.

[bjkrautk]

2 starts of 5 innings (or less) for every start of 8 innings (or more), and a guy that you feel comfortable with in your rotation....but less comfortable while actually watching him pitch.

[MillerParkSouth]

Can I still predict a Carpenter-like ascension to greatness? I want to believe.

 

I've been believing since 2006 my man. I have big expectations for him next year. I feel like he was our 2nd best pitcher behind CC down the stretch last year so I hope he can carry that over to '09. If we're going to be competitive, we're going to need the good Dave Bush to show up consistently.

[pitchleague]

I think we can expect about a 4.5 ERA and durability to go about 200 innings. I wouldn't expect him to keep the really low WHIP and a better than career ERA like he did last year because of this:

I don't understand this statement. Based on your graph, he had a better than league average BABIP in four of the last five seasons, with 2007 being the lone year above the average. Looks like a fine #3 man in a rotation. I would expect him to have a decent WHIP and ERA. Maybe not Carpenter-good, but decent enough for our rotation.

[brewjihad]

I don't understand this statement. Based on your graph, he had a better than league average BABIP in four of the last five seasons, with 2007 being the lone year above the average. Looks like a fine #3 man in a rotation. I would expect him to have a decent WHIP and ERA. Maybe not Carpenter-good, but decent enough for our rotation.

 

Bush's career ERA is 4.45

 

2007 was 5.12

2008 was 4.18

 

Naturally, I think around 4.5 is a good projection considering he was pretty lucky last year, and pretty unlucky in '07.

 

I think he's a fine 3 or 4. 200 innings of 4.4-4.5 ERA has a lot of value in the MLB. But I don't think it's reasonable to project him for another 4.18 because of the BABIP that was well below his norm and the fact that his K/9 have decreased, BB/9 have increased in the past few years.

[Thurston Fluff]

He's an average pitcher who is having an average career so far. Next year I expect him to be average.

[TooLiveBrew]

The interesting part of the lead post's question is that imo we got roughly what should have been expected from Dave Bush in 2008. About the same goes for 2007, but as has been mentioned, our IF defense muddies the waters. For people that are looking at ERA &/or W-L record, 2007 doesn't look like the good year that it actually was. Bush in 2009 will be about the same pitcher. If we somehow add an excellent 3B defender, he might be made to look a bit better. I honestly can't complain with him being our #3 or 4 starter.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

It looks like we control Dave Bush for 2 more years. He will get a Jeff Suppan like contract after that on the open market. Anyone have an idea of how much we're going to have to pay him this year in arbitration?

[reillymcshane]

It looks like we control Dave Bush for 2 more years. He will get a Jeff Suppan like contract after that on the open market. Anyone have an idea of how much we're going to have to pay him this year in arbitration?

I believe Vargas got $3.6 million in a similar situation and he was worse in most areas than Bush. I'd say around $4.5 million. $5 million tops, $4 million the low end.

[adambr2]

He has our only playoff win in the last 26 years.....so, he is a gamer. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

[PepsiFanClubAlum]

If he could figure out how to get that lights out action on his fastball and curve more consistantly he could become a top of the rotation starter. He pitches with the presence of one, just needs to figure out how to keep it low and moving. I'd say he has the best shot of pitching the Brewers 2nd no hitter.

[silversurferr]

I wonder if losing Maddux will have a negative effect?

[Ennder]

Bush has gotten slightly worse every year as a Brewer so maybe losing Maddux will help. The only improvement he's had at all is in his LOB%. His K/9 has gone down each year, BB/9 up and GB% down, all negative trends.

[joepepsi]

I believe Vargas got $3.6 million in a similar situation and he was worse in most areas than Bush. I'd say around $4.5 million. $5 million tops, $4 million the low end.

This is why I'd offer him to a 3 year/$15-16 million deal this winter. Or some such figure, maybe with a 4th year option for another $8-9 million.

[Postseason2006]

Count me in for one of the Dave Bush defenders even though I did not like the trade at the time. The guy has brought no hit stuff to the game at times. If he could avoid that "big inning" and the long ball, the guy would be more than a solid #3.

[clancyphile]

How hard would it be to offer Bush a 5-year deal for $34 million ($2 million bonus, $6 million/year for 2009, 2010, 2011, $7 million for 2012, 2013)?

[fleehaw]

This is why I'd offer him to a 3 year/$15-16 million deal this winter. Or some such figure, maybe with a 4th year option for another $8-9 million.

IMO, that offer is too low. I think 4.5-5M is about right for '09 with any sort of success meaning conservatively 6-7M in '10. So, he'd give up a year of FA for about 4M? Taking into account contracts like Suppans and Silvas, I'd think 3yrs/$20M, perhaps with an option year at around 8M is probably more on target. Is he worth it?

[Blindcheck]

Prior to the 2007 season, there were some Fantasy Magazines that listed Dave Bush as a top 20 starter in the Major leagues...for fantasy purposes...Now you cannot find him rated in the top 75-100.

During the 2006 season, he must have showed some things to get him rated that high.....interesting, I like Bush and it seems you can see early in the game if he has it or not...

[Ennder]

Bush is a high variance pitcher and probably always will be so the real answer is who knows. He doesn't strike out a ton of guys, he doesn't walk a ton of guys which means he has a lot of balls put in play. He gives up a lot of extra base hits and is a flyball pitcher so he has a lot of variation in his HR/LOB%. He is also prone to the big 1st inning while he gets control of his curve.

 

His skill is probably something like a 4.50 ERA but he is the type of guy that easily can swing from a 4 ERA to a 5 ERA year to year. That is part of why you like the high K, GB type of pitchers, if you aren't letting balls in play and you are giving up extra base hits you tend to have more control over your ERA for good or for bad. The one good skill Bush does have is just not giving away free bases as much as an average pitcher.