Cameron to Yankees yet? Latest: Brewers apparently talking to free-agent CF's (in case); post 147-ish

[Postseason2006]

So you're just ignoring his proof that strikeouts are largely irrelevant?

I take it you just completely ignored my post?

 

ennder, LA and Philly prove otherwise of what you just stated. Again ERA and pitching are highly more relevant than hitting. And again, Cameron's defense wasn't that great. He's got an average arm.

 

I am glad you mentioned Toronto because if you didn't notice, there win total was 86 which is very good considering they finished 4th in their division which had the wildcard team.

[Ennder]

ennder, LA and Philly prove otherwise of what you just stated. Again ERA and pitching are highly more relevant than hitting. And again, Cameron's defense wasn't that great. He's got an average arm.

 

You really need to look at run differentially not just RS or RA, I think I missed your point if these teams somehow prove anything. The teams that scored more than they allowed had winning records, the teams that didn't had losing records.. They all went about it in different ways, some had good pitching, mediocre hitting, some had mediocre pitching, good hitting. There is nothing in any of that which suggests that good pitching is somehow more important than good hitting.

[mothershipconnection]

W-L should never be used to judge hitting, because offense is only half of the game. The best offensive team in the league could still be under .500 if they're the worst pitching and fielding team in the league. To judge offense, you can only look at offensive outcomes, just like you can only judge pitching by pitching outcomes.

[Patrick425]

I'd say that it almost is exactly worth $9 mil. The price of a win on the free agent market is about $4.5 million.

Sorry I'm late in responding to this. I know there has been some discussion regarding it and I even believe someone stated a win is worth more like $4.8 million. Huh? I'm not quite getting the math.

 

Is this just per win period or per win over the "average" player at that position and is this true for all positions? What about pitchers? If it's true for pitchers than a 20 game winner should get about $90mil/yr or maybe $40 mil per year if your talking about wins over the "average" pitcher. I guess I'd like more insight into how this $4.5mil or $4.8mil per win number was calculated. Seems a bit high to me.

 

I'm guessing part of the argument would be that a positions player's calculated "wins" is not the same as a pitcher's actual wins. At any rate the process seems somewhat arbitrary.

[kramnoj]

If it's true for pitchers than a 20 game winner should get about $90mil/yr or maybe $40 mil per year if your talking about wins over the "average" pitcher

 

If you could find a pitcher who consistently won 20 games a year, he would probably be worth $40m/year. I'm sure someone can point to a specific explanation, but I believe it is based on runs above average (or maybe runs above replacement, not sure). Anyway, 10 runs is the equivalent of 1 win, so if CC is 5 wins above x, he would be worth close to $25M/year, depending on the value that you use.

 

I believe it is based on looking at how much FA players get, and how many wins above x those players were. I do think that people are using this number incorrectly. I think it is best used to determine how much value teams got retroactively. I don't think it's all that useful in determining what players will (or should) get.

 

Players will get what they get based on supply and demand, not some formula that looks at how players have been paid in the past. Teams aren't going to base their offers on making sure they aren't paying more than $4.5m/win. They are going to look at where they want to upgrade, who is available, how much money they can spend, project their roster forward a few years (don't sign a big FA to a long term deal at a position that you expect to be playing a rookie at next year), and then determine where they can spend their money most efficiently. If a team is getting under market value at key positions because of young players or undermarket contracts, they can afford to pay overmarket deals at holes elsewhere in the system if needed.

[Ennder]

I'm guessing part of the argument would be that a positions player's calculated "wins" is not the same as a pitcher's actual wins. At any rate the process seems somewhat arbitrary.

 

Yes that is exactly the point, pitchers wins are like 75% out of their own control so are not a valuable metric. If you are really interested on how values are derived you would probably be best served by googling it and doing the research. Looking at http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/ is a good start as well. They are just advanced metrics meant to give a number to a players value compared to a replacement level player making the league minimum.

[Invader3K]

So, is it likely we won't hear anything about Cameron staying or going until after CC signs somewhere (Brewers or not)?

[monty57]

Again, as I pointed out, just look at pitching vs hitting. That is the true measure of successful teams and winning has to do with ERA. The Brewers are so focused on CF when pitching is the true measure of success.

 

I think they're focused on both, as they have just offered $100MM+ to Sabathia, and mention pitching and 3B as the two most important areas of concern this offseason. In fact, Attanasio mentioned that he would be willing to go above the projected budget if it meant signing Sabathia. The simple truth is that they had an option on a very good CF for below-market price, so they took it. The fact that they cashed in on the option doesn't mean that it was their primary focus, it just means that they had to decide by a certain date, so they did.

 

If we could somehow trade Cameron for a #2 starter, I'm sure Melvin would jump at the chance. However, that chance isn't likely to occur, and even if it did, it would still leave a big hole to fill in CF. Even if pitching is "the true measure of successful teams," we still need to have major league caliber players at every position on offense/defense. If we traded Cameron straight up for a pitcher, our current option for a starting CF would be Gwynn.

[GAME05]

So, is it likely we won't hear anything about Cameron staying or going until after CC signs somewhere (Brewers or not)?

i read somewhere Melvin was going to talk to CC's agents the middle of the week to basically see if he was just wasting his time or not. Melvin said if it wasn't going to work out, then his next priority would be to upgrade the pitching staff and whatever else his plans are.

[paul253]

I'd have a hard time seeing Sabathia take 2 years and $40 million less. Unless Melvin is going to offer more he should be able to figure the CC isnt going to resign. If I were Melvin, I'd increase it to 5 years at $125 million and hope for the best. Really whats extra year? This isnt Suppan we're talking about.

 

In those 5 years, though, you can theoretically develop a lot of your own pitching. The only problem, of course, if that we havent developed anything. Sheets, Parra, and Gallardo were really the only good starters we've developed in the last 6 or 7 years, meaning we've had to spend big on average pitchers (Suppan) and go in with guys pitching higher in the rotation than they should be (Bush, Capuano, Doug Davis). Its a big risk, but I think you go for it. Offer more money and fewer years than the Yanks. If they counter to 6 years at $150 million, oh well, you did all you can.

[Team Canada]

Keep CC discussion to the CC thread.

[Invader3K]

Haudricourt has a new blog entry up, talking about how the Yankees still have interest in Mike Cameron. He mentions that if the Brewers would not receive Melky Cabrera in a potential trade, that Melvin might then try to trade for David Dejesus.

 

Sounds like we could quite possibly see a deal go down.

[yoshii8]

I just mentioned in another thread that I would like to trade a Cam package for Cano, and then turn around and trade Weeks for Dejesus.

 

 

I think it would be great to add 2 contact hitters to the lineup.

[Hammer]

Would have to be Cam for Cano+ right? Cam for Cano does nothing for me as is...

[yoshii8]

Would have to be Cam for Cano+ right? Cam for Cano does nothing for me as is...

I guess I thought that we would be getting the better end of a one for one deal, but you could be right.

[jjfanec]

So if we did the trades mentioned it would be Cameron and Weeks for DeJesus and Cano. I like parts of that but really don't like the decrease in defense. From all I have read Cano is actually worse that Weeks and DeJesus is not as good as Cameron for sure. Cano is coming off a down year but his OPS has consistently been better than Weeks outside of this past year. DeJesus and Cameron have had a very similar career OPS. This definitely would give us a more balanced lefty/righty lineup, but I am not sure it would give us a better lineup. I would be surprised if the Yankees would trade Cano for one year of Cameron but maybe they would

 

DeJesus

? Cano/3B

Braun

Fielder

Hardy

Hart

? Cano/3B

Kendell

[yoshii8]

So if we did the trades mentioned it would be Cameron and Weeks for DeJesus and Cano. I like parts of that but really don't like the decrease in defense. From all I have read Cano is actually worse that Weeks and DeJesus is not as good as Cameron for sure.

I took these stats from the Hardball times. I don't think we would be worse defensively at 2nd w/ Cano. Cano seems to be more consistent w/ balls in his range, but Rickie seems to have more range.

Cano:

Year	Tm	Pos	Inn	PO	A	TE	FE	FPct	DPS	DPT	BIZ	Plays	RZR	OOZ
2005	NYA	2B	1142	258	391	8	9	.974	39	38	410	313	.763	19
2006	NYA	2B	1009	230	333	3	6	.984	34	39	331	267	.807	25
2007	NYA	2B	1408	320	497	3	10	.984	60	78	420	350	.833	53
2008	NYA	2B	1376	305	482	4	9	.984	57	52	472	382	.809	30

 

Weeks:

Year	Tm	Pos	Inn	PO	A	TE	FE	FPct	DPS	DPT	BIZ	Plays	RZR	OOZ
2005	MIL	2B	837	178	233	10	11	.951	23	33	229	165	.721	35
2006	MIL	2B	794	177	261	12	10	.952	22	45	251	192	.765	23
2007	MIL	2B	984	232	286	6	7	.976	25	45	246	193	.785	35
2008	MIL	2B	1056	256	333	7	8	.975	26	47	295	238	.807	41

[PilprinBuddha]

I want Melky and Hughes for Cameron if he is going there. We still need to address a LH 3b IMHO.

[yoshii8]

They wouldn't trade Hughes for Santana, why would they give him and another player up for Cameron?

[Crewin06]

I don't know how quickly New York can turn around and trade Swisher but what do you guys think about Swisher and Cabrera for Cameron and Billy Hall?

 

Our outfield needs are met. We have another LH power bat in the lineup and if Swisher and Weeks revert to career norms they would be a nice patient group in front of a fearsome middle of the order. If Swisher fails at CF then you still have Cabrera and a $6M bench player.

 

Weeks

Swisher

Braun

Fielder

Hardy

Hart

3B

Kendall

 

Any deal with Cameron I would try to shed Hall and his $6 million salary or Suppan I think they would be more receptive to Hall.

[fondybrewfan]

They wouldn't trade Hughes for Santana, why would they give him and another player up for Cameron?

I think the shine has worn off on Hughes a bit. I think he had much more value last offseason than he does this year. He was pretty awful in 8 starts with NY this year. His last 2 starts were quite a bit better though. That being said I would still want him. If the Yanks are indeed going after CC, Burnett, and Lowe, Hughes is expendable at the right price.

[BrewCrewForever]

Trade Cameron for pitching from NY and then make a trade to KC for DeJesus. I would love that.

[Mass Haas]

From this Star-Ledger article:

 

According to a person familiar with the Milwaukee Brewers' plans who asked not to be named since he is not authorized to speak for the team, the Brewers have been talking to free-agent center fielders in case they trade Cameron. The Yankees have an interest and are not on Cameron's limited no-trade list.

 

Not a known issue, if there is a limited no-trade list. The bigger note (I hesitate to say "news") is the on-going CF discussions, which means a trade of Cameron would not make Corey Hart the defacto center fielder, for those thinking in that regard.

 

Also, that would seem to indicate that Melky Cabrera would not necessarily be part of any Cameron-to-NY trade.

 

But who jumps out at you among the free agent outfielders that could play CF, particularly left-handed ones? Seems like this report could be a bunch of nothing...

[Never Outhustled]

But who jumps out at you among the free agent outfielders that could play CF, particularly left-handed ones?

The only other CF available with any production is Jim Edmonds, who would fit the profile of what we would be looking for, but his durability is such a major question mark.

[JohnBriggs12]

Well he's not lefthanded, but Rocco Baldelli certainly falls into the category of guys who COULD play CF. So does Kapler. I think the Brewers would take Cabrera but they're not sold on him as an everyday guy so they'd cover themselves with a guy who hits from the other side.