Cameron to Yankees yet? Latest: Brewers apparently talking to free-agent CF's (in case); post 147-ish

[fallingleaves]

I think this is a golden opportunityto get rid of Soup!

 

Cameron

Soup

 

for

 

Cabrera, 20 mill off the payrole.

[Weirdos19]

I'm in for Cameron and Suppan for Cabrera and Kennedy

 

I really think that this trade isn't going to happen, now that they declined Marte's option.

 

Any deal they had for Cameron should have us getting Marte back.

[Ennder]

Probably around 2, maybe 2.5 if Cabrera is more like 2008 than his previous years. That is not worth $9M

 

I'd say that it almost is exactly worth $9 mil. The price of a win on the free agent market is about $4.5 million.

 

A win is worth about 4.8M after inflation for 2009. So if it is 2 wins we just barely lose the deal, if it is 2.5 wins we lose by a pretty significant amount. The other players are going to matter quite a bit.

[JimH5]

Melky is nothing more than a 4th OF.

 

Kennedy is nothing more than a 6th SP.

 

Pass.

This just based on personal opinion or is there something else backing it up? I fail to see how Melky's career does not make him a starting CF on some team and the majority of teams probably think of Kennedy as at least a 4th/5th starter. A 6th SP is a 5.50+ ERA type of guy.

 

Melky's .341 SLG pct. last year, and .374 career mark are troubling. I don't think he can hit enough to contribute every day. He' probably a good enough CF to start on some teams, but I can't see him starting on a NL playoff team.

 

Kennedy was supposedly close to being ready last year, with limited expectation (think Kyle Peterson). He bombed badly in the majors. . .made it through 6 IP just twice enroute to an 8.17 ERA. The Yanks were giving starts to Sidney Ponson and Carl Pavano instead of giving Kennedy a chance to showcase himself.

[danzig6767]

Probably around 2, maybe 2.5 if Cabrera is more like 2008 than his previous years. That is not worth $9M

 

I'd say that it almost is exactly worth $9 mil. The price of a win on the free agent market is about $4.5 million.

 

A win is worth about 4.8M after inflation for 2009. So if it is 2 wins we just barely lose the deal, if it is 2.5 wins we lose by a pretty significant amount. The other players are going to matter quite a bit.

Hypothetically given you can only guess and project the win difference between if we had Cameron or Cabrera. Besides that, a big reason i wouldn't want Cabrera as the Brewers starting CF next year is Cameron has been amazingly consistent through his career. A team with Cameron as their starting CF has been able to count on good defense and roughly a .800 OPS at the plate. Cabrera has a pretty good season in 2006, was worse in 2007, and was terrible last year at the plate. A .642 OPS is around Tony Gwynn territory.

 

I'm confident if Cameron is our CF next season, he'll post an OPS somewhere in the .775 to .825 range. With Cabrera, a sub-.700 OPS wouldn't surprise me at all. Maybe if Cabrera was platooned with Kapler, i'd find the situation a little less distasteful. Then again, who knows if Kapler can repeat his fine year and also stay healthy with fairly regular playing time.

[StearnsFTW]

I think this is a golden opportunityto get rid of Soup!

 

Cameron

Soup

 

for

 

Cabrera, 20 mill off the payrole.

It's frightening how bad Soup's contract is. 2/25+.............yikes.

 

Soup/Cameron for Melky gets turned down by the Yankees.............scary.

[PilprinBuddha]

How much better would Melky be than Gwynn? Defensively and offensively? If its a wash...then is it worth the move?

[endaround]

Cabrera is a major league player, Gwynn isn't. Even if you think Cabrera is more a back up type, he's the kind where him filling in for 20 games or so isn't the end of the world, Gwynn is the end of the world.

[Ennder]

Their defense is about the same probably, Melky is a better hitter.

 

At age 25 Gwynn has a .248/.300/298 line in the majors and a .273/.345/.342 in the minors including 3 years in AAA where he has gotten worse each year.

At age 23 Cabrera has a .268/.329/.374 line in the majors and a .296/.347/.420 in the minors where he was young at every stop. He also has overa .400 OBP in his time spent in AAA.

 

Gwynn is probably a AA player, Melky is at least a AAAA.

[hauser42]

I would not deal Cameron for Melky and Kennedy. Cameron is one of the best overall CFers in the game and it is a huge dropoff when he is replaced by Melky. Kennedy is no better than a 5th starter, he has become bigger and better than he is because of the Yankee publicitty machine.

 

If without bringing back CC would like the Brewers to keep Cameron as there is no one that can replace him unless Melvin goes out and makes a big trade for one.

 

Comments that Gwynn is same as Melky are just some homers thar are over valueing Brewer prospects. Melky is a better all around OFer since he has a better arm than Gwynn. When the slap hitting Gwynn leaves the system it will be a good day for him and the fan base.

[Postseason2006]

I guess I am missing why everyone is gaga over Cameron calling him one of the best CF's in the game. The guy had an inflated August with the rest of the season being below average. He couldn't hit .200 in September or the postseason and his defense late killed the Brewers. I would make a deal with the Yankees in a heartbeat.

[giffted1]

I guess I am missing why everyone is gaga over Cameron calling him one of the best CF's in the game.

 

I'm guessing that most people that like Cameron are looking at the numbers rather than being guided by personal biases.

 

I would make a deal with the Yankees in a heartbeat.

And you probably feel that Derek Jeter's jock strap would be sufficient compensation.

[fondybrewfan]

I guess I am missing why everyone is gaga over Cameron calling him one of the best CF's in the game. The guy had an inflated August with the rest of the season being below average. He couldn't hit .200 in September or the postseason and his defense late killed the Brewers. I would make a deal with the Yankees in a heartbeat.

So two plays, which 90% of CF don't even get to, all of a sudden made Cameron a defensive liability? And how about his .821 OPS in July or even his .799 in June? The guy had one terrible month, so did virtually every other Brewer in September.

[Postseason2006]

I guess I am missing why everyone is gaga over Cameron calling him one of the best CF's in the game.

 

I'm guessing that most people that like Cameron are looking at the numbers rather than being guided by personal biases.

 

I would make a deal with the Yankees in a heartbeat.

And you probably feel that Derek Jeter's jock strap would be sufficient compensation.

What numbers are you looking at? The mere fact that he's a career .250 hitter who K'ed a career high per at bat last year which was about 1 for every 3 at bats and misplayed more balls in his career than any other year. Can't people see the mere fact is that he's going to be 36 and faded down the stretch last year when he missed the first month of the season?

[Oldcity]

What numbers are you looking at?

Certainly not batting average and strikeout numbers, which don't correlate to winning or losing? More like on-base percentage and slugging percentage, which do.

[Postseason2006]

What numbers are you looking at?

Certainly not batting average and strikeout numbers, which don't correlate to winning or losing? More like on-base percentage and slugging percentage, which do.

Do you have numbers that back this? Compare Shane Victorino's numbers and play to Cameron's and who would you take?

[Oldcity]

There's a good discussion in the Major League Thread for Cameron's option being picked up. Here are some things posted there by logan.

The 5 teams best at not striking out were ranked(in order) 26, 21, 4, 12, and 15 in runs scored.

 

http://spreadsheets.googl...y=pKN8HdBGjC9KXhXzXw1moIA

[Ennder]

Do you have numbers that back this? Compare Shane Victorino's numbers and play to Cameron's and who would you take?

 

Victorino hit .293/.352/.447/.799 last year in a hitters park and was +10 plays in CF according to the fielding bible numbers

Cameron hit .243/.331/.477/.808 last year in a neutral park and was +8 plays in CF which would be roughly +10 prorated for playtime.

 

The extra OBP of Victorino and his age of course would make me rather have Victorino but the two were pretty darn close to each other. Victorino is a well above average CF as well though so not sure he is exactly the guy you want to compare to. Only a handful of CF hit better than Cameron last year and a couple of those were worse than him defensively so he does shake out in the top end at his position.

[Postseason2006]

For all the Cameronatics, his OBP was middle of the pack for this past year sitting at .331 which was 1/100th's of a point higher than Lastings Milledge who was at .330. This put Cameron at 15th overall for CF's.

 

http://sports.espn.go.com...null&endDate=null&minpa=0

 

His OPS was 7th overall which was .809. He tied for 4th overall in K's with 142 but his plate appearances total was 444 which gave him a SO once every 3 at bats.

 

Shane Victorino was the 3rd leading hitter among CF's with only 69 K's in 570 at bats meaning his ability to put the ball in play and use his speed was much greater than Cameron. Plus, his OBP was .352. I only used Victorino since a previous poster related OBP plus OPS equaled winning.

 

For those of those claiming that Cameron is a top 10 CF, I would take BJ Upton, Nate McClouth, Curtis Granderson, Josh Hamilton, Shane Victorino, Carlos Beltran, Jacoby Ellsbury, Torii Hunter, Grady Sizemore, Matt Kemp, and Ichiro Suzuki before Cameron.

[Ennder]

Well the first thing I'd say is if you already looked at OBP/OPS the number of Ks is 99% meaningless so I'm not sure why you keep bringing it up. Strike outs help drive a players OBP/SLG/OPS but by themselves they don't have any negative or positive value. A few less 'productive' outs and a few less double plays is what they tend to lead to outside of the rate stats and that mostly evens out. We've had dozens of posts showing proof of this in the past month already so not going into it again but the argument that Cameron is somehow worse because of his K rate is absurd.

 

None of those guys you listed are FAs so I guess I fail to see the point. If we were talking about taking those guys just for next year, paying them $10M and letting them walk I would take Cameron over Ellsbury for sure, that one isn't even close. Sizemore, Hamilton, Granderson and Beltran are easy picks over Cameron.

 

Suzuki fits our needs better but Cameron is a better player most likely. McLouth is a poor defensive CF regardless of the fact he won a GG and too much of his stats were a hot start, I think I'd rather have Cameron.

 

When you get into the Upton, Victorino, Kemp group I don't think any of them are clearly better than Cameron but I'd probably go with them because of the youth and chance of improvement. Hunter and Cameron are pretty close to the same guy so dunno which one I'd rather have though my gut instinct would be to take Hunter.

[Postseason2006]

What numbers are you looking at?

Certainly not batting average and strikeout numbers, which don't correlate to winning or losing? More like on-base percentage and slugging percentage, which do.

So according to what you just posted, the Top teams in OBP were Boston Chicago, StL, Texas, and Atlanta. Only 3 of those 5 were over .500. In OPS, Boston, Chicago, Detroit, StL, and Texas were the top 5. Only 3 of those 5 were over .500. In SLG the Top 5 were the two Chicago teams, Texas, Detroit, and Boston. Again, 3 teams were over .500.

 

 

The LA Angels clearly blow your theory out of the water with a SLG and OBP ranked 18^th. Philly was 16^th in OBP.

 

 

http://sports.espn.go.com...Type=batting&type=reg

 

 

In fact, you stated BA has nothing to do with wins, the mere matter of fact is that 5 of the Top 6 teams were over .500 in overall average. Coincidence?

 

 

While SLG the ball is important it is not why a team wins. While Tampa Bay relied on the long ball along with Philly, both teams were able to score runs at times because they could run. I remember seeing a stat where Philly was one of the best teams at stealing bases and they gave Davey Lopes that credit.

I feel the Brewers are better off spending money for pitching. While we are caught up with the longball it's clear to see why teams are successful.

 

http://sports.espn.go.com...p;split=0&season=2008

 

My biggest point overall is that instead of spending 10 million on a CF, pitching is what wins. If the Brewers lose out on CC, trading Cameron to free up money to spend on pitching would be more ideal right now.

 

The Top 9 ERA's all finished over .500. 10th was Oakland but they were a bottom feeder in every offensive category.

[Ennder]

Top 10 teams in OPS were as follows with R/G rank in their league in parenthesis

 

Rangers (1)

Red Sox (2)

Cubs (1)

Tigers (4)

Cardinals (4)

White Sox (5)

Phillies (2)

Yankees (7)

Indians (6)

Rays (9)

 

It is a pretty clear cut correlation with only the Twins really bucking the trend at #3 in the AL because they hit insanely well with RISP (expect the twins to regress next year btw, sorry Twin fans but that was not a playoff level team). The Mets were #3 in the NL and Orioles #8 in the AL to finish out the missing R/G ranks.

 

Now lets look at the top 10 teams in not striking out.

 

Mariners

Blue Jays

Twins

Cardinals

Angels

Orioles

Royals

Yankees

White Sox

Braves

 

Notice how very few of those teams were in the top run scored list up there?

 

How about AVG

 

Yankees

Tigers

Mariners

Angels

Rockies

Red Sox

Mets

Dodgers

Braves

Phillies

 

Again half the teams weren't in the top 10 in runs scored and the White Sox who had the lowest AVG in baseball were in the top 10!

 

Strike outs have absolutely no correlation with runs scored, AVG has a slight correlation, SLG a bit more, OBP a bit more than SLG and OPS and stats like it have a strong correlation.

[Postseason2006]

Again, as I pointed out, just look at pitching vs hitting. That is the true measure of successful teams and winning has to do with ERA. The Brewers are so focused on CF when pitching is the true measure of success.

[Oldcity]

So you're just ignoring his proof that strikeouts are largely irrelevant?

[Ennder]

Again, as I pointed out, just look at pitching vs hitting. That is the true measure of successful teams and winning has to do with ERA. The Brewers are so focused on CF when pitching is the true measure of success.

 

Well if you are looking at ERA you are talking pitching and defense as defense is a huge part of ERA. Cameron brings above average defense at a premium position. Runs allowed is probably pretty even with runs scored when it comes to deciding wins and losses though. I'd have to look at a lot more than 1 years worth of data to see just how much more important one is than another.

 

Texas as an example allowed the most runs in the AL and still almost went .500. The Blue Jays had the least runs allowed of any AL team by a very large margin and finished only 7th in wins. The White sox were middle of the road in RA but were the 4th best wins. The Dodgers allowed the least runs of any team in the NL and only won 84 games. Florida allowed 119 more runs than the Dodgers and also had 84 wins.

 

ERA is all around a bad stat though, it doesn't tell you anything. It doesn't tell you how good a pitcher is because it can take defense out of the equation and it assumes an error is worse than a ball you just didn't get to. If I really wanted to start to look at pitching I'd just use RA, ERA is just some silly stat that has less meaning. RA at least tells how the defense+pitching did combined.