Cameron to Yankees yet? Latest: Brewers apparently talking to free-agent CF's (in case); post 147-ish

[fondybrewfan]

If the Yanks would take Suppan & Cameron I would accept only Cabrera in return. We would have some major $ to fill some areas of need via FA or Trade and offer contract extensions to our young guys.

[brewjihad]

You aren't really comparing Mike Cameron to Vlad Guerrero are you?

 

Not the point at all. Your generalization that adding a righty 'free swinger' was bad isn't true, and that's what I was trying to point.

 

You stated that Cameron was a reason that the Brewers scored 50 less runs this year than last year. I disagree, and apparently you aren't willing to consider my point of view.

 

(BTW, Cameron and Vlad were similar in value last year. Cam's .800 OPS and stellar CF is close to Vlad's .860 and below-average RF).

[Ennder]

I find it very hard to believe that allt he Brewer players got worse because we didn't have Jenkins in the lineup... which is pretty much the only change from 2007 to 2008. Cameron had pretty much nothing to do with the offense struggling last year.

[JohnBriggs12]

This deal could also open up another deal depending on the pitching prospect. How about Pitcher prospect + Weeks + mid level prospect for Brian Roberts with the savings in money. The lineup becomes

 

Roberts

Hardy

Braun

Fielder

Hart

Hall/Betemit

Cabrera/Kapler

Kendall

Pitcher

 

I could get behind something like that. Obviously it needs to be a real prospect for something like that to work though.

Ennder,

 

You and I clash often and we did on whether to pick up Cameron's option, but if the Yankees are serious about this offer, then I will concede Melvin made the right move. It's hard for me to believe the Yankees will include a real high ceiling pitcher in a deal for a guy on the last year of his contract who'll be 36 but Melvin's philosophy of always getting one young arm in deals might come into play here.

 

I totally agree with you it's not just who you get for Cameron so much as what it allows you to do elsewhere but Cabrera and Betemit are legit players that have some value, and if it allows them to go out and get Roberts like you suggest, you've upgraded the team without adding to the payroll.

[monty57]

Using Brewerfan's salary page and making some arby guesses, I'd say the Brewers' are at around $62-65MM in salary for the 21 players under contract. That would leave somewhere around $15-20MM to fill two pitching positions, 3B (I put Hall on the bench) and a bench spot. That leads me to believe that while I am not opposed to trading Cameron, I don't think it's necessary to dump his salary. Therefore, I'd assume it would have to be a "fair" trade talent-wise for Melvin to go along with it.

I would see some sense in trading for a slightly lesser CF if it also added a SP that would allow both Villy and McClung to remain in the bullpen where they've shown success and/or if it added someone to fill the 3B hole. The above stated "proposal" from the Yankees seems to fit that bill in theory, but are the players good enough to constitute a "fair" trade. In other words, if money were no object, would Cameron for Cabrera/Betimet be a good deal? I'm not very good at determining talent-for-talent trades, but I'd think Cameron would merit a little more than that. The trade could very well put us in a situation where we'd have a .650 OPS CF that plays worse defense than Cameron, (with our only backup option being Gwynn), and a utility infielder that forces us to play Hall as a near-everyday 3B.

I agree with JohnBriggs' in that Cameron's skill set is somewhat of a redundancy on the Brewers, but his skills are worth a lot to most teams. Plus, Cameron's a steady guy... you're pretty certain what you'll get from him next season. If Melvin is going to trade him, I'd like to see more certainty coming back. If Melky Cabrera is part of the trade (A) there had better be another solid player in the deal, and (B) we need have a better backup plan than Gwynn in case Cabrera fails.

[Ennder]

Well the first thing you have to do is assign a value to Cabrera.

 

He is considered an above average defensive CF so I don't think we are losing a ton of value defensively from Cameron to Cabrera. Maybe half a win tops.

 

He hit .268/.329/.374/.698 in 1438 major league ABs through his age 23 season.

He hit .296/.347/.420/.767 in 1489 minor league ABs and was young for his level at each stop.

 

If I had to project his future I'd think he is going to be a .700-.750 OPS above average defensive CF which to me is roughly league average production. Last year the average CF hit .268/.334/.420/.753 last year.

 

Going from Cameron to a league average CF is losing around 2.5 wins so we need to gain back 2.5 wins somewhere else in the deal to stay even in 2009. So what that says to me is the pitcher needs to be an important part of the deal and not just a throw in. Betemit probably doesnt' really have any value, he is just a guy. He plays below average defense and only gives average production. He does fit a need on our team but that isn't enough to give him much value.

[Hate those Rodents]

Endder, assuming Mark A spends every dollar he budgets us for for this coming season, don't we have to consider the eight million or so dollar savings as part of this trade? It certainly is not as black and white as Cabrera is a downgrade on the field in 09 from Cameron, is it?

[Ennder]

A win is worth roughly $4.8M in FA dollars so that doesnt' make up the 2.5 wins. It is certainly part of the equation though as that money will likely go towards another pitcher. Cameron is worth somewhere around $9.5M-$14M dollars in the open market depending on how much you want to regress him for age and what you think of his defense. That is between 2 and 3 wins.

[jjfanec]

Jon Heyman is reporting that Brewers and the Yankees have been talking but the Brewers are hesitant to deal Cameron because they think he could help lure CC back to Milwaukee because they are good friends. He says the main pieces are either Cabrera or Kennedy which is not a surprise. Kennedy intrigues because even though he struggles with the Yankees his AAA numbers were very good. The Brewers could ease him into the rotation, but I do not know a lot about his stuff.

[Hate those Rodents]

I guess I am thinking that Cabrera and say Fuentes (I am not advocating signing him but just throwing his name out as someone that maybe would accept a 4 year deal at 8-10 per) would be better than Cameron. Again, just throwing in Fuentes the dollars essentially the same for this year. I also realize that Cameron is a guy we are on the hook for for only one year while John Doe (Fuentes in this case) would be likely for multi-years.

 

Still, I think if we can get someone like Cabrera and use the savings on a pitcher, I would think we'd be better off.

[Brawndo the Thirst Mutilat]

If you can only have one of Kennedy or Cabrera, count me as overwhelmingly pro-Kennedy. His MLE FIP from his past two seasons of minor league work is 3.55. That is based on over 200 IP.

 

He's been bad in the big leagues, with a FIP of 4.91 and an actual ERA of 6.14, but that's over just 59 IP, and a lot of young pitchers that turn out to be really good have some initial struggles in the big leagues.

 

Split the difference and call him a likely 4.00 to 4.50 ERA guy right now with the possiblity of much better numbers now or soon-ish.

 

As for what to do about CF if Cameron is gone and Cabrera isn't acquired to replace him, I'd try to see if I could get Nick Swisher from the White Sox for speedy junk like TGJ and Hurricane and an actual prospect if they require one, and if they won't go for that, I'd trade Hart for Swisher and let Gamel have RF in '09.

[monty57]

Thanks Ennder, that helped clear the valuations up for me. So if the deal were to include a young, major league ready SP that could keep Villy and McClung in the bullpen, where they're probably better than league average, it could work out to be a decent deal for both teams. The Yankees get the better player, while the Brewers fill a hole (pitching), shed a decent amount of salary, get some players they can keep long term, and add a switch-hitter to a righty dominated lineup.

 

As to why the Yankees might do it, they could feasibly extend Cameron out a year or two, making it more than a one year rental. Money is not really an issue for them. Plus, they're going to sign 1-2 of the premiere pitching FAs this year, possibly making a young arm expendable. I'd also guess that not making the playoffs this year didn't sit well with them. They may be a little more willing to do what it takes to make sure they're in the playoffs this season. Adding Cameron for a couple of players that weren't going to play a big role for them this season could definitely fit in their plans.

 

I'd still like to make sure the Brewers have a "Plan B" for center field just in case the Cabrera's 2008 numbers turn out not to be a fluke. Re-signing Kapler Could help in that regard, and I'm sure there are other options out there that wouldn't cost too much. I really, really don't want to see Hall or Gwynn playing everyday CF. That in itself would assure us of missing the playoffs.

[jjfanec]

I would actually like the trade for Kennedy and then for the Brewers to try to go after Coco Crisp as out CF. Crisp has nowhere near the power but he is a leadoff guy who can hit LH. I do not know what the asking price for Crisp would be so I guess that could keep this from being a good idea but I think it work because you are essentially Cameron and player for Crisp, Kennedy, and also around 4.25 million dollars in salary.

[Never Outhustled]

Kennedy and Cabera don't do anything to help the Brewers, They would fit perfectly for a team like KC. Throw in a Brewer prospect, and get Zak Greinke.

 

As for the Brewers CF whole created by the loss of Cameron, Tampa's Fernando Perez is the guy I target. Theres no starting spot available for him there, and I think he'd be a quality starter immediately. Got quality big league experience this year, was an On-base machine in the minors, very good defensively, with blazing speed, terrific intelligence and work ethic.

 

I would actually like the trade for Kennedy and then for the Brewers to try to go after Coco Crisp as out CF. Crisp has nowhere near the power but he is a leadoff guy who can hit LH.

Crisp has a 331 career OBA, thats 21 points lower than Weeks. I don't see how he's a leadoff type, and leadoff types don't improve a teams runs scored, increasing a teams OBA and slugging % does.

 

Crisp is a switch hitter who can bat lefthanded, but he doesn't hit well from that side, with an OPS of just 706 from that side over the last 3 years.

 

Cameron's OPS versus RHP over the last 3 years was 770. Thats hardly a big weakness.

[Turnbowsaves24]

I really would like to see Perez on the Brewers. Would be very interesting and probably pretty cheap to get as well. Then can trade away Cam, if we don't re-sign CC (guess they are like a package deal, which is just a rumor) Maybe trade Cam to White Sox for Vazquez and either a prospect or reliever.

[nate82]

Am I the only one who has no interest in Kennedy either? I don't see him as anything more than a 4/5 starter. Yeah, he's cheap, but we have plenty of 4/5 starters on the team.

Ian Kennedy = Dave Bush. I have said this a couple of times when discussing trades with the Yankees. Dave Bush is probably better than Kennedy though.

[StearnsFTW]

I wouldn't mind Kennedy for Cameron if we had anyone remotely palatable to play CF.

 

Since we don't, and there doesn't seem to be a good answer out there, I'd just keep Cameron and hope Cain is ready for 2010.

[DHonks]

X ellence, to support Perez, as he was on the last Fall League squad I worked with. He's the best CF I've ever seen in person. I think he compares with what Cameron was in his prime. Plus, he's extremely smart for a ballplayer. While many went to college or JuCo just to play ball, he went to Columbia University. Hard worker, too

[Ennder]

Another name I wouldn't mind seeing is Willits. I don't know how he is in the field but I find it hard to believe a player with a .390 career minor league OBP and .379 major league OBP hasn't had more of a chance to play. Even if we kept Cameron he'd be a nice 4th OF.

[RockCoCougars]

Pass. Why would you trade one of CC's good friends to the team that is the top threat to sign him away? Sounds like shooting yourself in the foot to me...Kind of like when Sal Bando took Grissom off the Indians hands to free up cash on their part to sign Lofton.

 

Not to mention the fact that Cabrera is probably a backup OF at best on a good team. If they wanted to involve Hughes in a deal for Cameron/prospect and/or take Suppan off our hands I may listen, but not for guys like Cabrera or Betemit.

[DHonks]

...Kind of like when Sal Bando took Grissom off the Indians hands to free up cash on their part to sign Lofton.

 

Except the Indians signed Kenny Lofton before the Brewers traded for Marquis Grissom. Ironic since the Brewers offered more money to Lofton than the Indians.

[BrewerBrent]

MLB Trade Rumors is reporting melky and kennedy has been discussed

[colbyjack]

I like the idea of Ian Kennedy, who I have been a huge fan of dating back to his time at USC. His minor league numbers are incredibly solid, even if he has struggled in the big-leagues. I saw one person compare him to Dave Bush, who I would love to get another one of.

 

I'm not high on Melky Cabrera, at least not as a starter, but he would be a fine 4th or 5th OF, especially if it's he and Kapler coming off the bench. To the Cabrera supporters still pointing to his success a couple of years ago, even during his best season, he hasn't had a year in which his OPS+ was at or above 100 (which in my understanding, is the break-point for average players). Yes, he hits RHPs better, but it's not like he does that incredibly well, and even his minor league prospect reports suggest that he could be a 4th OF as a 'tweener, in that his defense isn't ideal for CF and his power isn't ideal for a corner spot.

 

There is something to be said for getting a potential 4th or 5th starter and a 4th OF for Cameron while saving $9 million. I'm not saying that is why Melvin picked up Cameron's option, as I would be happy to see Cameron back in CF with the Brewers next year, but this could be a situation that really benefits the Brewers, although they would need to find a better everyday option for CF than Melky Cabrera. Counting on him for '09 is not very wise for a playoff team.

[sbrylski]

I have to think Cameron for Kennedy is easily a good trade for the Brewers. Looks like Kennedy would be under control for 6 seasons to Cameron's one at market value.

 

And I would say Kennedy should be at least a Dave Bush, good chance he's better.

[sbrylski]

And I'd be down for Fernando Perez too: