BA: Team-by-Team Top Prospects

[nate82]

Keith Law put up his top 5 prospects by teams today.

 

Milwaukee Brewers

1. Alcides Escobar, SS

2. Jeremy Jeffress, RHP

3. Angel Salome, C

4. Mat Gamel, 3B

5. Brett Lawrie, C/2B

[colbyjack]

A few Q&As from an ESPN chat with Jim Callis that pertain to a few of the discussions above:

 

Deywane Memphis: How would you rank the farm systems in the National League Central?

 

Jim Callis: (2:27 PM ET ) My ranking (not necessarily the BA consensus) put the Cardinals at No. 8, the Brewers at No. 11, the Pirates at No. 15, the Reds at No. 17, the Cubs at No. 27 and the Astros at No. 30.

 

Keep in mind, that's just Jim Callis' ranking, but that give you a pretty good idea of where the teams should fall into place. I think a few people around here guessed that the Brewers would be around 10.

 

Ryan (Milwaukee): Just wanted to check on something with you. When you publish those future lineup projections, you don't take contract status into account at all, do you? You had Prince Fielder as the 2012 first basemen for the Brewers when it seems extremely unlikely he'll sign an extension to stay past 2011. Is that something you do just to keep things simple?

 

Jim Callis: (2:33 PM ET ) Glad you asked this question, because I think there are a lot of different interpretations as to what we're trying to do with those future lineups. We don't know who's going to re-sign or depart as a free agent, and we don't know what trades will be made. They're simply a way to stack up a team's current major league talent vs. its minor league talent. I wouldn't read much more than that into them.

[filthyfrog]

Keith Law has Salome ahead of Gamel? That's something I simply can't phathom. They've both shown they can hit and have major question marks on defense. But where Salome can only play one position, Gamel can fall back to the OF or 1B. Even offensively, Gamel has a natural, classic-type swing, whereas Salome is highly unorthodox, which could mean that Major League pitchers with Major League scouting reports will figure him out quickly. I can't imagine how someone would argue that Salome is a better prospect than Gamel. Was there even one person who voted that way in the fan poll?

[Mass Haas]

While I disagree with Law (I have Escobar-Gamel-Jeffress-Salome top four), I can understand his thinking in that given the bleak state of catching these days major league-wide, a stud catcher can be worth exponentially more in the big picture within an organization.

[endaround]

Salome is also a year younger than Gamel

[sveumrules]

at the same time it seems almost cyclical in that cathcing is so bleak at the mlb level which leads to catching prospects getting rated a little higher than they probably should. it seems like after high school pitchers that catchers probably are the most likely to flame out rather than live up to their potential.

 

looking at law's list though i definitely saw a few head scratchers. so escobar has already had comparable success to triunfel at a higher level but gets rated lower? i know upside plays into it as well but it sounds like triunfel is almost as old as escobar anyway. not to mention he has triunfel listed as 2b/ss so i'd imagine scouts aren't quite as high on his defense as they are with escobar's.

[ILuvDaBush]

A lot of times, prognosticators put the young guys on the list just so they can always say, "....but they're still young enough to turn it around." That's why Jason Bay wasn't given his full credit. He put up great numbers...but he wasn't dominating a league where he was the youngest player, or "holding his own in the deep end" as my cronies and I call it.

 

Also, John Sickels recently did a three-part writeup on the flameout rate of TOP prospect catching.

[colbyjack]

The Reds list came out Friday. They too have some nice talent, but you don't look up and down their list and think that the Brewers have to worry about them competing due to internal talent anytime soon.

 

http://www.baseballameric...rospects/2009/267416.html

[colbyjack]

Cruising right along, BA turns to the NL West this week, with the Rockies up today. The Rockies have one of the better presences in Latin America, and their everyday CF of the future, Dexter Fowler, should be with the big-league club at some point this season, possibly on opening day.

 

http://www.baseballameric...rospects/2009/267482.html

[clancyphile]

John Sickels discusses Cole Gillespie in this link -- the Gillespie text is pasted below:

 

Cole Gillespie, OF, Milwaukee Brewers

Bats: R Throws: R HT: 6-1 WT: 205 DOB: June 20, 1984

Gillespie was a third round pick in 2006, out of Oregon State. He's been quietly solid as a pro, producing moderate power with a high walk rate and double-digit steals, despite tools that scouts rate as just average. He posted a +14 percent OPS in the Southern League last year, good but not excellent. More impressive was his .418 Secondary Average, showing a broad range of production beyond his batting average. He lacks the speed for center and the arm for right, but he's acceptable in left field. Scouts like his leadership skills and work ethic. I think he's a Jason Bay type; a guy who scouts often overlook, but who always performs to the best of his ability and will sneak up on us someday. His main limiting feature is age: at 25 he doesn't have a lot of room to grow, but his skills are strong and he should not be underestimated. Grade C+ but a guy I like a lot.

OK, what exactly is "Secondary Average"?

 

The write-up mentions the parts about Gillespie that led me to rate him over Lorenzo Cain as the top OF prospect for the Crew: walk rate, the steals, and the solid production. The good news about his work ethic and leadership skills is a plus - I might have undersold Cole a little bit on my ballot.

[TooLiveBrew]

"He lacks the speed for center and the arm for right, but he's acceptable in left field."

 

This, to me, is what sorta damns Gillespie in terms of being much more than a reserve OF in MLB. That's a nice way of saying that he only profiles in LF, and even then doesn't sound like he profiles well. Don't get me wrong, his offense sounds nice to me... but not sure how nicely it would fit in LF once his peers aren't minor leaguers. I should be clear that I don't mean to knock Gillespie, as he obviously has a future as a PH & reserve OF with a NL organization.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

I think Gillespie is going to be one of those players that the scouts just don't like, but will keep producing and be an everyday player for a long time in the bigs. He just has to keep doing what he's doing and somebody will give him a shot. I bet Billy Beane would love a guy like Cole Gillespie in his system. As a matter of fact I know he would.

[JoeHova]

OK, what exactly is "Secondary Average"?

 

(TB - H + BB + SB - CS) / AB

[colbyjack]

The Diamondbacks don't look to have the best top 10 list on paper, but the top few prospects would seem to have a fairly high chances of having some big-league success. Jarrod Parker figures to follow Clayton Kershaw as the game's best prep pitching prospect, and Wisconsinites have to root for Mark Hallberg's ascent to Arizona.

 

http://www.baseballameric...rospects/2009/267467.html

[brewerguy71]

Parker is a stud. I saw him pitch in HS and he was pretty advanced already. He probably has a couple more years before he is MLB ready. Going into last year I thought that Meyer would be the next "Parker" but that didnt happen. Shocked he didnt sign. No way in the world I thought that kid wasnt going first round. Telling teams he wanted to go to college and pass up a $1mm+ signing bonus is perhaps the biggest mistake a kid can make.

 

I am all for going to college, but as one scout once said, even if you do go to college, no job in the world is going to pay you $800,000 as a 21 year old, much less a 17 year old, to go to work every day and do your job.

[ILuvDaBush]

I thought Meyer passed up well over a million dollars to go to college in hopes of extracting a David Price-type bounty. Price, himself, was a Dodger draft pick, IIRC.

[colbyjack]

Ben Badler of BA gives Alcides Escobar some more love today after speaking with scouts who had the chance to see him play in Venezuela:

 

http://www.baseballameric...om/blog/prospects/?p=2114

[colbyjack]

The Giants are covered today, whose system has gotten significantly better the past two years. Given how much better they have been in recent years developing arms, it also looks like they may just have an impact bat or two on the horizon, at premium positions to boot.

 

http://www.baseballameric...rospects/2009/267493.html

[brewerguy71]

Got my print edition today of the NL West prospects....of no surprise to me Will Inman is not in the Padres top 10. Probably would not have made the Brewer list if he were still here. That Scott Linebrink trade looks to be pretty benign after all.

[jjfanec]

Got my print edition today of the NL West prospects....of no surprise to me Will Inman is not in the Padres top 10. Probably would not have made the Brewer list if he were still here. That Scott Linebrink trade looks to be pretty benign after all.

Baseball Prospectus had him out of the top 11 maybe a 2 star prospect. Sickels had at 8 and graded him at a B- thinking about downgrading him to a C+. Garrison is not ranked in the top 20 by Sickels.

 

The two guys we drafted with the Linebrink picks were Dykstra (8 and C+ in Sickels, 7th in BA, 9th and 3 star by BP) and Fredrickson (18 and C in Sickels and just missed and probably 2 star in BP). These two guys will determine the trade just as much as Inman and Garrison but Inman's falling stock and Garrison's injuries do make this trade look better than it was originally received.

[ILuvDaBush]

Would anyone trade Dykstra for Inman? Maybe I'm overvaluing the young runt but he looks like he's going to be a quality major-leaguer, Scott Hairston/Jerry Jr. at the very least. Inman?? The walks just scare me.

[colbyjack]

I missed the Dodgers on Friday, and the Padres are up today. The Padres really need to inject some talent into their system (despite having a ton of picks a couple of years ago), while the Dodgers' system doesn't look as strong as it has in past years:

 

Dodgers:

http://www.baseballameric...rospects/2009/267509.html

 

Padres:

http://www.baseballameric...rospects/2009/267514.html

 

And that wraps up the team-by-team top prospects. Here's a link to access all of their lists and chats:

 

http://www.baseballameric...on-top-10-prospects/2009/

 

Anyone want to take a shot at ranking them? The Rays and Rangers are likely the favorites for the top two spots.

[Patrick425]

OK, what exactly is "Secondary Average"?

 

(TB - H + BB + SB - CS) / AB

 

Not that I'm up on every baseball stat, but I never heard of it. I like it thought. It appears that it's trying to measure the players ability to get into scoring position. I'm not sure why it adds walks though.

[nate82]

Anyone want to take a shot at ranking them? The Rays and Rangers are likely the favorites for the top two spots.

Top 10

 

1. Texas Rangers

2. Tampa Bay Rays

3. Atlanta Braves

4. Oakland A's

5. Florida Marlins

6. Cleveland Indians

7. Baltimore Orioles

8. Angels

9. St. Louis Cardinals

10. San Francisco Giants

 

The Brewers would be 12th the lack of pitching prospects is concerning.

[endaround]

OK, what exactly is "Secondary Average"?

 

(TB - H + BB + SB - CS) / AB

 

Not that I'm up on every baseball stat, but I never heard of it. I like it thought. It appears that it's trying to measure the players ability to get into scoring position. I'm not sure why it adds walks though.

 

Its really just a quick number to address all the skills a player has not covered by BA. So TB-H gives you power, BB gives you on base ability and SB-CS givers you speed/baserunning.