Javier Vazquez CWS

[fleehaw]

God thats a bad return on Fielder. Swisher likely isn't as bad as he was but he isn't Fielder offensively and right now he's dead weight. Buerhle isn't worth that contract.

 

I don't necessarily disagree with you; I was just throwing something alternative out there. Endaround, I would like to hear what you think is a good return on Fielder with a specific proposal or two. I usually agree with your posts or at least understand where you're coming from, so I'm interested to hear your thoughts.

 

It seems that people are in agreement, that if Hardy or Fielder is traded, it should be for a young, top of the rotation starter. Who is this mythical player? Proposals have been made for a good, young pitcher and the response often is, 'No way he's traded.' or 'You don't trade good, young starting pitching.' I realize how unlikely all of the prosposals are. It would probably make for an entertaining read for Melvin. I guess I'm just looking for fair value in any proposal. Most likely guys like Cain or Kazmir won't get traded, but I certainly feel like they'd be fair value in a potential Fielder deal.

[MillerParkSouth]

I would absolutely love to go after Vazquez if we lose Sheets/CC. He strikes out a fair amount of batters and will always give you innings. Like someone mentioned, the fact that he has 2 years left is ideal because that's at least 2 years less than anyone we'd sign would be locked into. I just think Ozzie doesn't like Vazquez, as evidenced by calling him out about not being a 'big game' pitcher. Even if we can't get rid of Suppan, i'd see if they'd take Bill Hall for him.

[lukevan]

My thought on Vasquez is if you're the Brewers and you're going to go after a SP in trade, you try to do better. Vasquez is probably better than those other than Bush in that list, but how much better? I guess if you don't have to give up much it's not a bad deal, but will it make the Brewers that much better than having one (or more in a platoon) of those guys in the rotation? I guess I'd just like to do better since we're probably looking at picking up just one SP for 2009. Vasquez would be low on my list of guys to target.

[endaround]

I don't necessarily disagree with you; I was just throwing something alternative out there. Endaround, I would like to hear what you think is a good return on Fielder with a specific proposal or two. I usually agree with your posts or at least understand where you're coming from, so I'm interested to hear your thoughts.

 

It seems that people are in agreement, that if Hardy or Fielder is traded, it should be for a young, top of the rotation starter. Who is this mythical player? Proposals have been made for a good, young pitcher and the response often is, 'No way he's traded.' or 'You don't trade good, young starting pitching.' I realize how unlikely all of the prosposals are. It would probably make for an entertaining read for Melvin. I guess I'm just looking for fair value in any proposal. Most likely guys like Cain or Kazmir won't get traded, but I certainly feel like they'd be fair value in a potential Fielder deal.

I think trading Fielder for young established pitching just isn't realistic so I agree with you there. Anybody trading for Fielder expects him to be gone in three years time so their horizon is short and during that same horizon then they'll need 6 quality pitchers. Given its much easier to find a cheap 1B than a cheap starter I just find it difficult to see a match most places. Now Fielder for a 3B could work, say to Boston for Lowell+ but given the glut of sluggers on the market I just think Fielder's trade value won't be that high.

 

Which pitchers then would I try to go after? This is going to be based off of the Brewers being able to add one low 8 figures salary if they can't move Hall or Suppan. The first is Erik Bedard. Now the management change in Seattle might mean they no longer blame him for Jose Vidro not being able to hit but he's likely available. When he moves depends upon how much injury risk Seattle wants to take with waiting until the season to move him. Yes you really can't expect more than 150 innings form him, but they'll be very good innings and hell like come in at around $8 m in arby making him easily affordable. As to what it would take to get him? Maybe something like Cain, Nelson and Irribarren/Crabbe (the Mariners infielders could be traded but they stink anyway)

 

Next Kevin Millwood. The Rangers still seem to like him but usually 5 ERA pitchers owed $11m and $12m can be had. Of course the reason to target Millwood is that his peripherals say that he is not a #5 starter, but a #2/#3 starter. His FIP that past two seasons have been 4.55 and 4.02. No reason to expect him to revert to his late 20s form so I doubt his career FIP of 3.82 is realisitic but around 4 wouldn't be a bad guess. He does have no trade clause, but that could be circumvented by moving up his deferred payments. Now what Texas would want is harder to fathom but I think Melvin can get something going there.

 

After that there is the Pirate duo of Duke and Snell. Snell is more likely the more available since Pitt might be scared off by his 5 ERA and owing him $7.25m over the next two seasons given the {Pirates are always trying to cut salary. While Snell's ERA was 5.42 his FIP last year was 4.57. Unlike Bedard or Millwood, Snell is a back end guy but he would still be cheap for the next 3-4 years. Add int eh Pirates have loads of pitching coming up and this makes sense for them to move Snell. Something like the toolsy Brewer would seem to fit here.

 

After those you end up with guys you'd take for the salary relief of the other team and to have a live arm. Vasquez is close here but a step above. You can put here Washburn for example.

[Crewin06]

I wonder how much the Sox have soured on Nick Swisher and if Swisher can actually play CF decently.

 

A deal of Bill Hall, Jeff Suppan plus a little extra for Swisher and Vazquez would be really nice.

 

Swisher and Hall have basically the same contract only Swisher has an extra year and 10+ million and Vazquez and Suppan have basically the same contract.

 

If Swisher could play CF decently and return to his 2007 form this deal would be awesome. It would also be nice to have another left-handed bat in the lineup.

[Brawndo the Thirst Mutilat]

Swisher is stretched as a CF, but he's not a total disaster. Chone Smith's 2009 defensive projections have him at +5 runs in LF/RF and -3 runs in CF. Cameron projects as a +3 CF -- call it a dropoff of between half a win and a win or so.

 

If the White Sox really want him gone, he'd absolutely be at the top of my priority list were I any MLB GM. His .219 AVG last year was a total abberration -- his 20.9 LD% should have resulted in a BABIP around .330 instead of the absurdly unlucky .251 it actually was. Even if his BABIP just rebounds to his career rate he should hit around .250 - .260 next year, if it actually gets up to where you'd statistically expect it to be he'll hit .280 - .290 with an OBP over .400 and an SLG over .500 (i.e. better than Ryan Braun was this year). I would prefer him to Corey Hart by a very sizable margin if it comes to making a spot for him, and it sounds like Hart is exactly the sort of player Williams and Guillen think will make the White Sox better.

 

Vazquez is another ideal target. His previous big game failures matter not a whit to me, since I do not think they are of any more predictive value than it turned out Suppan's previous big game successes were. He puts up a FIP around 3.80 every year, and while he's been in the league long enough (several thousand IP) that you can start to trust his actual ERA as a better predictor of his future ERA than his FIP, the fact that his FIP so far outstrips his actual prior performance leads me to have a lot more optimism that he could actually pitch really well than someone like Suppan. I think he's a decent bet to put up an ERA slightly on the happy side of league average and an amazingly excellent bet to throw 200+ IP. And the wildcard is that he's got a small but noteworthy chance of a lucky BABIP year vaulting him into the Cy Young race if he pitches on a team with a good offense. And it sounds like the White Sox are basically giving him away.

 

If all it would take for Vazquez + Swisher is something like Hart + Hall, or if the White Sox could be snowed into taking some of our speedy no-upside minor leaguers (TGJ, Hurricane) as part of the package for one or both...that screams "no-brainer" to me.

[MillerParkSouth]

I couldn't agree more! Has there been any indication that Melvin and Williams have talked at all or is this pure speculation? They've worked together in the past, so I would hope someone would at least make a phone call.

[StearnsFTW]

If all it would take for Vazquez + Swisher is something like Hart + Hall

 

This was pretty much the exact deal I was thinking of. Swisher is a pretty big upgrade to Corey (unless you think last year wasn't an abberation), and I'd gladly take on a little salary to get rid of Hall.

 

Swisher will cost more than Corey over the next three years, but not by a huge margin, probably about $6m over the three years, plus there's an option for 10M if he does pan out.

 

You shore up the SP with Vazquez and improve your offense while adding approximately $7M this year depending on Corey's salary.

 

Weeks

Hardy

Fielder

Braun

Swisher

3b

Cameron

Kendall

 

is a much more attractive lineup balance-wise and obp-wise than last year.

 

Plus it precludes another stupid 4/40 type contract for an average starter.

[Hate those Rodents]

Thought this thread would be nice to bring back up. I get tired of reading about every single pitcher being "another Suppan". Here's a guy we could have gotten last season that, as you can tell by most comments on the first page, nobody wanted too badly and some wanted nothing to do with. Point is, guys like Washburn/Vazquez/Davis etc. have been good in the past and have been at least #2's before. It certainly could happen again for any one of them, just like it did for Vazquez and Randy Wolf out of nowhere this past year.

[nate82]

Point is, guys like Washburn/Vazquez/Davis etc. have been good in the past and have been at least #2's before.

I'm sorry but Vazquez is nothing like Davis or Washburn. Davis and Washburn are at best right now #4 pitchers and are more along the lines of a #5 pitcher Washburn at best would be a very small upgrade over Suppan I would rather give Narveson a shot over Washburn. Vazquez is completely different from Washburn and Davis it is laughable to put those three in the same group.

 

Vazquez is a strike out pitcher who still can throw his fastball by hitters yet unlike Davis and Washburn who really can't. Both Washburn and Davis would be no better than Suppan and Looper. I don't see why you are even comparing Washburn and Davis to Vazquez it is ludicrous to do so.

[Bnowell4evr]

I think Carl Pavano would be a better comparison.

 

He still can hit 90 on his fastball, has the ability to strike some people out and was the victim of some bad luck that skewed his ERA.

[Hate those Rodents]

Nate - you can read comments as well as me. Before this past season, Vazquez was perceived as being a guy in the mold of a Bill Hall and Jeff Suppan value wise. Slightly better, but by and large he had close to neutral value, regardless of how his "stuff" might be better than the lefties I mention. The funny thing to me is knowing how much differently you'd be talking about Washburn had he pitched for Detroit how he was pitching for Seattle. You'd probably be calling for him as a 2/3 as opposed to a 5.

 

The point, again, is that a lot can change in a year, that we're going to have to gamble somewhat, and there is certainly a similar chance that Washburn can fill the #2 spot in the rotation just like Vazquez came out of nowhere to be able to fill it for the Braves this past season (even if he regresses his final year of his contract).

[JohnBriggs12]

I think Carl Pavano would be a better comparison.

 

He still can hit 90 on his fastball, has the ability to strike some people out and was the victim of some bad luck that skewed his ERA.

When you allow 235 hits in 199 innings, that's not bad luck, it's that hitters are finding it easy to get good wood on your pitches.

 

If the FIP stat were around back in the day, Tommy John would have been labeled a number 5 starter who was extremely lucky his entire career. Never mind that he could get hitter after hitter to ground out to 3B. Apparently that was all luck.

[endaround]

Actually no, everyone basically realized that Vasquez was good and that the White Sox were looking to dump him because they set him up as a scape goat. Vasquez did not come out of nowhere. Very little changes in a year.

[nate82]

The point, again, is that a lot can change in a year, that we're going to have to gamble somewhat, and there is certainly a similar chance that Washburn can fill the #2 spot in the rotation just like Vazquez came out of nowhere to be able to fill it for the Braves this past season (even if he regresses his final year of his contract).

No. Washburn is not a #2 right now. He allows way to many fly balls again look at Washburn's stats and tell me he won't be another Looper or a Suppan. Just look at Washburn's fly ball rate and tell me what you will think will happen in the NL central that only has two parks that are pitching friendly and one neutral park.

 

Season	Team	GB	FB	LD	IFFB	IFH	BU	BUH	RS	Balls	Strikes	Pitches
2007	Mariners	232	288	115	41	10	15	4	100	1253	2018	3271
2008	Mariners	187	213	119	27	14	12	3	70	1026	1610	2636
2009	Mariners/Tigers	209	238	109	19	9	14	5	77	1050	1677	2727

The last three years for Washburn. Now compare that to Suppan and Looper.

 

Suppan

Season	Team	GB	FB	LD	IFFB	IFH	BU	BUH	RS	Balls	Strikes	Pitches
2007	Brewers	319	245	139	17	15	23	6	116	1257	2071	3328
2008	Brewers	264	191	139	14	14	25	7	98	1119	1708	2827
2009	Brewers	277	186	103	19	15	17	3	75	1112	1628	2740

Looper

Season	Team	GB	FB	LD	IFFB	IFH	BU	BUH	RS	Balls	Strikes	Pitches
2007	Cardinals	250	216	127	19	6	10	0	99	1095	1712	2807
2008	Cardinals	323	214	131	14	21	10	1	108	1191	2040	3231
2009	Brewers	314	247	116	23	22	20	4	155	1242	2033	3275

We all know what happened to Suppan and Looper with the HR balls. Now what is going to happen with Washburn if he puts up a FB rate like he did last year in the NL Central? I believe Washburn will give up around as many HR's as Looper and Suppan did this year. So around 25-35 HR's Washburn will give up if he is playing the NL Central. I hope the Twins sign Washburn I really do.

 

Washburn as a #2 is ludicrous.

[Hate those Rodents]

Well, I am reading this thread from a year ago and seeing that people only want to give up our garbage (Suppan/Hall) or a minimal prospect for him. Also, no talk of him as a 2/3 but mostly talk of him as a backend guy. Not sure why you'd communicate that "very little changes in a year", End. Clearly, "a very lot has changed in a year" with regard to Vazquez's value. Heck, I think it was Buster Olney that had him second in the Cy Young this year.

 

Nate - my point is basically that for 2/3 of the season (until injury possibly greatly effected him) Washburn's productivity was pretty equal to Vazquez even though they get it done different ways. His productivity before being dealt certainly was that of a #2. Does that mean I think it'd be smart to offer him a ton and ink him in as our #2 starter? No. My point is that it's possible he could be that productive based on how his effectiveness in a mediocre sample for Seattle was last year.

[trwi7]

If the FIP stat were around back in the day, Tommy John would have been labeled a number 5 starter who was extremely lucky his entire career. Never mind that he could get hitter after hitter to ground out to 3B. Apparently that was all luck.

So you're just going to randomly say something without backing it up? Tommy John's career FIP was 3.38, hardly being labeled a 5th starter. Actually it's being labeled like an ace.

[Invader3K]

Since it's trendy to dredge up off-season pitching targets right now:

 

Vazquez so far this year with NYY: 5 starts, 23 IP, 9.78 ERA, 2.043 WHIP.

 

Yeah, I'm not too torn up on missing out on this guy.

[TooLiveBrew]

His velocity has been way down, so it's either mechanics or an injury. He was absolutely dominant last season & has great stuff, so I'd expect him to rebound.

[bklynbrewcrew]

How about Vazquez for Wolf? They make about the same amount of money and Vazquez could really use a change of scenery. The trade wouldnt be risky for the Brewers since Vazquez' contract runs out after the season. If he pitches well maybe we could resign him for two years and 20 mil which would be about what Wolf is making. I really think this could be a good trade for both teams.

[MNBrew]

Wolf still has characteristics that make him worth keeping -- otherwise why would they have signed him to a 3-year deal?

 

Better idea: Suppan for Vazquez!

 

Doesn't Vazquez tend to pitch better in the NL and in smaller markets?