Dark horses for potential Fielder destinations

[LouisEly]

You forget how strong Fielder came on at the end of the season - he finished with 34 HRs, 102 RBI, .879 OPS, that after a 50 HR, 119 RBI, 1.103 OPS season. To only have to pay $7.5M for someone after two seasons like those is not bad at all.

[sheetskout]

You forget how strong Fielder came on at the end of the season - he finished with 34 HRs, 102 RBI, .879 OPS, that after a 50 HR, 119 RBI, 1.103 OPS season. To only have to pay $7.5M for someone after two seasons like those is not bad at all.

I know I am way in the minority on this, but I don't want Fielder dealt at all. I think most view Fielder as a hitter like his dad, but his zone judgement and ability to go the other way will make him a more successful hitter than Cecil ever was. I can live with a few more errors at first base for the type of offense Prince puts out too. I know Boras will drive hard bargains, and that may be the deciding factor for Prince leaving, but I am not sure what people are looking for in their power threat that Prince doesn't offer.

 

And for those of you who think that James Loney has more upside than Prince, please see me in ten years.

[ILuvDaBush]

Loney does have more upside than FIelder....as a pitcher.

[joshua502000]

To add to ILDB's post I would also say Loney has more upside as a jockey

[joepepsi]

I agree with offlinesheetskout. Good post. He's the best all around hitter on the team. The notion you can will improve the team by trading him for a pitcher, then insert some schmoe at 1B, is ludicrous. When you are a 90 win team you don't go about creating more holes, you try and patch the ones you already have without compromising your strengths.

[Tbadder]

When Fielder is dead at 48 years old lets talk upside.

[yoshii8]

When Fielder is dead at 48 years old lets talk upside.

Why would you write this? IMO, that is just plain wrong on a couple different levels.

[Tbadder]

Mainly, because he appears to be so unhealthy that he may work his way outta this league very quickly. Take a look at life expectancy of really large professional athletes--it's ghastly. It illustrates why Loney does in fact have a lot more upside--because Prince's downside is cavernous. I hope it doesn't come to fruition, but given the visual evidence you gotta say that Loney will have a much longer career. maybe not, but you've got to consider it. The Brewers on the other hand have to get Prince serious medical attention. He may choose to ignore, but then I'd be more apt to trade him for a lot of stiffs in this league, much less a young guy who does have actual upside.

[endaround]

The fact all those big athletes play football is what then?

[Never Outhustled]

When you are a 90 win team you don't go about creating more holes, you try and patch the ones you already have without compromising your strengths.

 

Very true, which is why you trade Fielder. He was not 1 of the Brewers strengths this year. When defense is factored in, it negated most of his offense. Getting a 1B who can catch a ball makes all 12 pitchers better.

 

 

The fact all those big athletes play football is what then?

Completely irrelevent, because we're talking about baseball?

 

Fielder has clearly regressed at the plate, players don't have down years unless they're dealing with injury. It is very possible Fielder ends up like Bob Hamelin. Baseball has seen plenty of players get fat at the end of there careers, but very few who've gotten this overweight in there mid-twenties.

 

I just don't think it will be that difficult to find a mid 800 OPS 1B who can play defense. The Brewers won't have to give up nearly as much to get him as they'll get in return for their overweight DH from some sucker team.

[Ennder]

Fielder has clearly regressed at the plate, players don't have down years unless they're dealing with injury

 

This really isn't true at all, tons of players have down years even without injuries, especially considering how huge a leap his 2007 stats were from his 2006 stats. Fielder had a slow start to the year and it suppressed his stats all year long. He posted OPS of over .900 in 3 of his last 4 months and the one month he didn't was because of a .239 BABIP not a spike in K or big drop in HR or anything, sometimes a slump is just a slump.

[3Putt]

Offense isn't the major issue with Prince. I expect last year is indicative of what we can expect simply because it's rare anyone hits 50 homers. Defense however is a big issue because he's losing mobility as we speak. Also he's a small target at 1st base to begin with.

 

Regarding large athletes, pro football players have a 10 year shorter lifespan than the average male. I don't know what that has to do with player values but I thought I'd pass it along.

[Never Outhustled]

He posted OPS of over .900 in 3 of his last 4 months and the one month he didn't was because of a .239 BABIP not a spike in K or big drop in HR or anything, sometimes a slump is just a slump.

His OPS was under 780 in August, he didn't have an OPS under 849 in 2007. His 2nd half OPS was 925, worse than 4 of his months in 2007.

 

The most glaring stat to me though was that he didn't have a single month with an OPS over 1000, in 2007 his season OPS was 1013. Impossible to say he even approached his previous level.

 

 

 

This really isn't true at all, tons of players have down years even without injuries,

Care to list some examples?

[ILuvDaBush]

D-Lee the last two years. Vernon Wells every other year. Andruw Jones...last year. Rollins this year. And, to be honest, Ryan Braun this year.

[logan82]

We still don't know exactly what to expect with Braun and Fielder(Hart also for that matter). It may be likely that their 2008 stats are closer to their true skill level than their 2007 stats. There is a chance 2007 was a career year for both. I would say that they are both better than their 2008 stats. For numerous reasons there were many people who thought Braun would have a worse year than 2007.(vs LHP split, BABIP) I really don't think it would be a stretch at all to say that Braun may never replicate his 2007 season.

[Never Outhustled]

D-Lee the last two years. Vernon Wells every other year. Andruw Jones...last year. Rollins this year. And, to be honest, Ryan Braun this year.

D-Lee was dealing with repeated complications from a broken wrist. Vernon Wells played a full season with a partially torn hamstring, then a bum shoulder. Ryan Braun's numbers took a dive after pulling a muscle in his back. Rollins OPS was above his career OPS, not sure why that was a bad year for him.

 

Jones relates more to Fieders woes. Jones career has spiralled downward at an early age as he continues to be extremely overweight.

If you have any examples that don't help prove my point, I'd love to see them.

[PlayerHader]

X, you don't think players just have down years without major injury complications? Every player is going to have some sort of nagging 'hurt' throughout a year. I think less productive years do happen regardless of injuries, and often an injury is "revealed" after the fact. Hell, I have less productive years for no good reason all the time.

[yoshii8]

Mainly, because he appears to be so unhealthy that he may work his way outta this league very quickly. Take a look at life expectancy of really large professional athletes--it's ghastly. It illustrates why Loney does in fact have a lot more upside--because Prince's downside is cavernous. I hope it doesn't come to fruition, but given the visual evidence you gotta say that Loney will have a much longer career. maybe not, but you've got to consider it. The Brewers on the other hand have to get Prince serious medical attention. He may choose to ignore, but then I'd be more apt to trade him for a lot of stiffs in this league, much less a young guy who does have actual upside

He has always been big, he is a very strong man and is very athletic for his size, its not like he is just a fat guy that sits on his couch all day, he is a professional athlete. I just don't appreciate you predicting a guys early death, just to prove that you think another baseball player has more upside. That is totally uncalled for.

[joepepsi]

This really isn't true at all, tons of players have down years even without injuries,

Care to list some examples?

Cal Ripken OPS from age 27 to 32:

803

718

756

940

689

749

 

Fielder's 2008 offense stats were within the range of expected performance. I predict for the next several years between now and his age 30 season, Prince will put up stats somewhere between his 2007 and 2008 seasons. His average and obp these two seasons were very close to each other. The only difference was slugging which was still 80 points above league average.

 

I suspect Braun will never duplicate his 2007 season.

[Ennder]

Care to list some examples?

 

Paul Konerko - 2003 put up an .704 OPS in between years of .857 and .894 and was healthy, most of it was a horrid first half.

Pat Burrell - 2003. OPS of .713 in between two years of .920 and .820.

Albert Pujols - 2002. OPS of only .955 in between years of 1.013 and 1.106.

Lance Berkman - 2007. OPS of .896 between years of 1.041 and .987

Alex Rodriguez - 2004 and 2006. OPS as a yankee has been .887, 1.031, .915, 1.067, .965.

 

OPS is not some stat that is just the same every year. It dips up and down by .050 on a regular basis and it isn't uncommon to jump or fall a full .100.

 

Furthermore Fielder had a 1 year base for his OPS so for all we know 2007 was just a hot year for him and 2006/2008 are more the expectations though I don't personally think it is true.

As for August yes Fielder had an OPS under .800 that month but like I said it was almost completely from BABIP.

In July Fielder put up a .965 OPS with 4 doubles, 1 triple, 6 HR and 17 BB, 25 K. In August he had a .780 with 3 doubles, 6 HR, 16 BB, 26 K. The only significant diference between those months was a few extra hits..

 

[Tbadder]

He has always been big, he is a very strong man and is very athletic for his size, its not like he is just a fat guy that sits on his couch all day, he is a professional athlete. I just don't appreciate you predicting a guys early death, just to prove that you think another baseball player has more upside. That is totally uncalled for.

1. We actually have no proof one way or the other that he doesn't sit on the couch all day, but he is a fat guy--really fat, and worse yet short and fat.

2. Being a professioanl athlete doesn't make one healthy automatically.

3. I'm sorry if I offended your sensibilities, but if I'm trying to evaluate a professioanl athlete, and his long term health isn't a part of the picture, then I'm not doing my job correctly. And if I'm evaluating a man of obese proportions then an early death is definitley in the scenario since the attendant health problems prcluding that death definitely will affect me and my organization (I don't think he'll die during his playing career, but the pre-conditions exist to a much greater degree than say Gabe Kapler). And in my opinion, which isn't worth a thing, so be it, this is merely a forum for ideas, is that Prince Fielder is a walking time bomb.

4. "totally uncalled for"? Really? I'll give you "uncalled for", but "totally"? I'll choose to disagree with you on that. In King Lear two daughters give the acceptable answer, only one tells the ungilded truth as offensive as it is. Someone needs to confront Prince Fielder for his own good.

[yoshii8]

We get to see him play 162 games a year, plus spring training and whatever other practices they have, so if he does sit on the couch for the 3 months not accounted for (which I doubt), it is rest his body probably needs. I don't think you have to worry if he is getting enough exercise.

 

I just don't agree that his life is in danger, his body is built that way. My wife and I talked to him up close in Minnesota last season when he wasn't in his baggy uniform and in street clothes, and yes he is short and large, but its not like his belly is hanging over his belt, he is a very strong looking man.

 

I think a lot of this is overreaction because he had a down year last season. I don't mind people saying his knees won't hold up, or that his frame will have something to do w/ slowing his career down, but I think it is nonsense to assume that he is going to die an early death because of his size.

[joepepsi]

My wife and I talked to him up close in Minnesota last season when he wasn't in his baggy uniform and in street clothes, and yes he is short and large, but its not like his belly is hanging over his belt, he is a very strong looking man.

Maybe his uniforms should be tailored?

[RyDogg66]

---

My wife and I talked to him up close in Minnesota last season when he wasn't in his baggy uniform and in street clothes, and yes he is short and large, but its not like his belly is hanging over his belt, he is a very strong looking man.

Was he this strong looking??

 

http://www.debbieschlussel.com/archives/costanzanaked.jpg

[yoshii8]

Yes, and more.