Player Spotlight

[colbyjack]

I thought a thread devoted to the players eligible for the 2009 draft may be appropriate, since the draft resource thread usually brings people up to speed on the raw draft order, free agent compensation, and top prospect lists provided by other publications.

 

One thing I do every summer is compile an Excel spreadsheet that has the stats of the more notable '09 draft eligibles, from their spring campaigns at their individual schools as well as the numbers from the summer leagues.

 

I'm going to start with A.J. Pollock, a CF from Notre Dame.

 

http://www.capecodbaseball.org/Weekly/Week2008/Photos/AW_%20AJPollack3.jpg

 

Pollock was named the MVP of the Cape Cod League. For some reference, Conor Gillaspie won this award last year, with Evan Longoria, Carlos Pena and Jason Varitek representing some of the more notable award winners. Pollock did so by finishing first in hits (61), doubles (15) and slugging (.556), second in batting (.377) and extra-base hits (20), third in runs scored (35), and fourth in on-base percentage (.455). He started and led off for the West squad, going 2-3 with a home run in the Cape's all-star game.

 

His success dates back to his high school career, being named the Gatorade player of the year in Connecticut in 2006, where he was a talented two-way star that excelled on the mound as well as at the shortstop position.

 

He started his career at Notre Dame playing second base, and a move back to the infield isn't completely out of the question, with either second base or third base being the more likely destinations. While he doesn't have ideal speed for centerfield, his baseball instincts allow him to get great jumps on balls and he has a strong arm.

 

Pollock has good bat speed and good pitch recognition. He rarely gets fooled, has good plate coverage, hits to contact and doesn't strike out much. While there isn't a ton of power in his swing, there's enough for double-digit readings, and scouts were encouraged to see his power bloom this summer on the Cape while swinging a wood bat while not compromising his approach. He has plenty of gap power, and his speed allows him to leg out plenty of doubles and triples. He has been very effective stealing bases (85% success rate in college), although he's probably not good for more than 20-30 a year at the professional level.

 

Here are the cumulative numbers from his freshman and sophomore years at Notre Dame, the summer of 2007 (New England Collegiate Baseball League) and this past summer:

 

.362/.438/.504 in 709 AB, 52 doubles, 6 triples, 12 home runs, 91:60 BB:K ratio, 63 for 74 in stolen base attempts

 

With the usual disclaimer that you can never rely too much on numbers from any amateur baseball player, these stats do speak of Pollock's abilities. I'm sure Brewers fans will find his high walk output and low strikeout totals appealing, while his leadership qualities, work ethic and overall approach the game could be appreciated by any fan.

 

He's not super toolsy, so at this point in time I don't think he's a candidate to go among the top 15 picks, but the same was said about Buster Posey at this time a year ago. He's more likely to go somewhere in the 20s if he is picked in the first round, as his upside is somewhat limited, but he makes the most of his tools and could see his numbers translate in a very similar fashion to the big-league level. He reminds me a lot of Aaron Rowand, although with more speed and probably less raw power potential at a similar stage of their careers.

[colbyjack]

http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3161/2611599925_a146b5eec4.jpg?v=0

 

Stephen Strasburg is up next, as I couldn't be predictable and start with the number one guy!

 

I want to start with the overall numbers for Strasburg because it really does show just how dominant he has been throughout his college career (includes two stints with Team USA and the NECBL).

 

14-7, 1.68 ERA, 60 games (20 starts), 198.1 IP, 118 hits, 273 K, 37 BB, 0.79 WHIP

 

He started his career at San Diego State out of the bullpen, and continued to be used that way the following summer for both Team USA and during his stint in the NECBL. The 2.43 ERA he posted his freshman year was the highest ERA at any level he has pitched, as he hasn't had an ERA above 1.80 at any other stop. He doesn't walk batters and he doesn't allow many hits while posting a ton of Ks.

 

I hate to make it sound as though I'm over-glorifying Strasburg, but he really is as close to a perfect pitching prospect as you can find, with the size, stuff and overall athleticism that makes him very similar to pitchers such as Mark Prior and David Price at similar stages of their careers.

 

His fastball sits in the 93-95 range and can approach triple digits. He can vary the speed and break on his breaking ball from a high-70s hammer to a low-80s sweeper. He also throws a changeup, and commands all three pitches extremely well, which has led to his incredibly low walk totals.

 

Since he did start his college career out of the bullpen, his arm is relatively fresh, as he hasn't been overworked. He pitched for the US Olympic team this past summer in Beijing, the only amateur selected, and had an incredible start last spring against Utah in which he struck out 23 batters. He started off his season last year by out-dueling crosstown rival Brian Matusz, the third overall pick in last year's draft, of the San Diego Toreros.

 

Strasburg will be advised by Scott Boras, meaning it is no sure thing that he goes first overall, as he should, to the Washington Nationals in next June's draft.

[brewerguy71]

The guy that I report to isnt really high on Pollock. I loved him but I think, in the opinion of my regional guy, is that he doesnt have the pure tools in place to take him as high as he is projected. He has definitely performed well his first 2 years at ND and had a great summer in Cape Cod, but he isnt the toolsy guy that scouting directors like to take with really high picks.

[colbyjack]

His raw tools are probably more in line with a 2nd or 3rd rounder, however the more you watch the guy play, the more you're impressed. He's the type of guys that plays above his tools and just flat-out produces, a la Dustin Pedroia (a 2nd rounder) and Kevin Youkilis (an 8th rounder), and we all know there are a handful of teams that jump at the chance to select guys like these. The Brewers haven't been one of those teams, but their first pick also hasn't been in the 20s for a long time.

 

Also, the lack of impact bats from the college level could inflate his value.

[brewerguy71]

Youre exactly right on about him in the Pedroia/Youkilis mode. He's a ballplayer. Pete Rose type of guy who just does what has to be done and gets results.

 

What do you think about Ryan Jackson from Miami? There was a time I thought he might be a top 15 type of pick but I havent seen him in any of the top prospects for next year lists at all.

[colbyjack]

I really like Jackson's glove, it's actually impossible not to love his glove. He's so slick and makes everything look so easy. He's Adam Everett almost across the board because I think he's really going to struggle to hit at the next level. He has gotten better in that area going from his freshman year to his sophomore one, and I'm guessing he will continue to improve into his junior year. He's going to be drafted in the top 1-2 rounds for his glove alone, because you could insert him into any lineup today and have a potential gold glover.

 

I got to see Jackson in person at the Aflac game a few years ago. He has a slighter and wiry body. There's room to add strength, but I guess I don't see that bat getting close to putting up solid numbers on an annual basis. I hope he proves me wrong, because he's a lot of fun to watch.

[colbyjack]

http://www.capecodbaseball.org/weekly/week2007/Photos/WK4_AndyOliver.jpg

 

Andrew Oliver is up next, somewhat of a controversial player in that he was suspended late in the 2008 college baseball season for supposedly having violated NCAA rules about relationships with agents. He has filed a lawsuit against the NCAA and Oklahoma State for his suspension, which somewhat clouds his status for the 2009 season. There are rumors that the agent that caused Oliver to be suspended was Scott Boras, who may have written a letter in defense of Oliver to Oliver's previous advisor(who, based out of New York City sent Oliver a six-figure bill for their previous advisement after Oliver switched advisors), which is violation of NCAA rules.

 

Regardless of the legal issues, Oliver is one of the top pitching prospects available for the 2009 draft, and he was also one of the top prospects available for the 2006 draft coming out of high school from Vermillion, Ohio. He reportedly turned down $400,000 to sign with the Twins after falling to the 17th round of the draft.

 

With perfect, athletic proportions, the size to sustain long innings and a cool, collected approach, Oliver is similar to former big-league pitcher Chuck Finley. His fastball velocity and command support that comparison, as he sits in the 89-93 range, touching 94-95, and maintains that velocity deep into ballgames. He's not afraid to come inside on right-handed hitters, and with his velocity is also able to get away with elevating his fastball as he racks up strikeouts. While he is able climb the ladder, he also has a knack for keeping the ball down in the zone earlier in counts, and his heavy heater can induce some weakly hit ground balls.

 

His secondary stuff needs refinement, although both his breaking ball and changeup show promise. His change is ahead of his slurve at this point in time, which is thrown from the same arm angle and velocity as his fastball. He has a tendency to overthrow his breaking ball, and while it isn't as consistently good as his fastball, he does throw it more frequently deeper into ballgames giving opponents a different look.

 

Oliver also fields his position well, and can hold his own at the plate as a pitcher. His strike-throwing approach led to him being knocked around early in his college baseball career, but he posted much better numbers during his sophomore campaign, and is poised for a huge junior year despite the legal issues that have not yet gone away. He will continue to be advised by Scott Boras.

 

Here are the overall stats, which includes a stint on the Cape after his freshman year, and his time spent with Team USA this past summer:

 

16-4, 2.62 ERA, 41 games (36 starts), 206.1 IP, 149 hits, 216 K, 97 BB, 1.19 WHIP

[colbyjack]

http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3296/2746585317_585b490e5e.jpg

 

Let's switch to one of the top high school prospects, LHP Matthew Purke, who in my opinion is the best prep prospect available for the 2009 draft. This may surprise some people, but I actually have Purke #2 overall at this point in time, behind only Stephen Strasburg. That's how good I think he could be if he's able to stay healthy, not that there's any reason to believe that he won't outside of the usual concern with young arms.

 

As you can probably tell from the photo above, Purke has a slender frame. He's a well-proportioned overall athlete with plenty of room to fill out as his body starts to mature into his early 20's. He throws from a low three-quarters delivery that creates a fair amount of deception, and his arm action is so effortless it makes it look as though he isn't putting much stress on his arm. The ball explodes out of his hand, as he can touch 95 with his fastball and sits comfortably in the 89-92 range, and there's a little bit of natural, late sinking movement to his fastball. While he does maintain his velocity deep into ballgames at this stage in his career, filling out and adding more muscle mass should only help him continue to do so, not only over the course of a game, but over the course of a much longer season.

 

His arm action is tailor-made for a slider, a pitch that comes out of his hand looking like a fastball that explodes in on the hands of right-handed batters and away from left-handed swingers. Purke also throws a nice changeup that is advanced for his age, but doesn't throw it as often given the success of his fastball-slider combination.

 

A talented overall athlete, he fields his position well and also is a gifted hitter that plays first base when he's not pitching.

 

In addition to his physical attributes, Purke also receives high marks for his character. Not only does he have a good head on his shoulders, but he also very confident in his abilities and has a nasty competitive streak that causes him to want the ball and exceed in the highest pressure situations.

 

During the summer of 2008 Purke pitched for the Aflac All-American Classic, the Under Armour Classic, the Perfect Game National Showcase, the Tournament of the Stars and for the Team USA 18U National Team. He has committed to play for Texas Christian University, but I highly doubt he ever steps foot on campus.

[brewerguy71]

He looks like more of a little boy than Lincecum does.

[colbyjack]

http://www.aflacallamerican2008.com/imageGallery/gallery%2FGame%20Day%2F15.JPG

 

With Purke up, I wanted to tackle Tyler Matzek right away, since these two are probably going to be contested back and forth between now and next June, similar to how Rick Porcello stacked up against Matt Harvey at a similar time as they prepared their talents for the 2007 draft. Many prospect publications and journalists seem to think Matzek is the top prep prospect available for 2009, and it is really hard to go too far out of my way to argue against them.

 

Matzek and Purke actually have similar profiles before you see them in person. They're both left-handed pitchers in the 6'3", 180-190 range. Matzek has a little more meat on his bones, or at least isn't as long and wiry strong as Purke is. Matzek is also a talented overall athlete that could draw interest for his bat if he wasn't so talented as a pitcher.

 

He too throws in the low-90s while reaching the 93-94 range, although there isn't much movement to this pitch, although at those readings you could argue that it doesn't need to move to be successful. While he does throw a very nice slider, he also spins a true, hard-breaking curveball that typically sits in the mid-70s. His changeup gives him a very polished four-pitch repertoire. Matzek's arm angle is more traditional, and his mechanics are picture perfect. He pitches aggressively and he isn't afraid to come inside on right-handed hitters.

 

Matzek also pitched at the Aflac All-American Classic, the Under Armour game, Tournament of the Stars and the Perfect Game National Showcase this past summer. He has yet to commit to college.

 

So why do I have Purke ahead of Matzek? I think Purke profiles more as a true power pitcher, and that's due to a few somewhat intangible qualities as well as his stuff. I think his fastball movement and the deception to his delivery play in his favor, and while both are high character players, I like Purke's killer instinct a little better.

[ILuvDaBush]

What's the story with Robert Stock? Is he eligible to be drafted yet this year?

[colbyjack]

Stock is a good, not great, overall player. He needs to have a big year to be taken as high as his reputation may suggest. It's not that he has performed poorly, but he definitely hasn't hit for the power that he's capable of.

[colbyjack]

http://www.themaneater.com/media/2008/0429/photos/baseball053t.jpg

 

Switching back to the college ranks, Kyle Gibson gets tonight's attention.

 

Gibson is the latest in a recent trend of talented, hard-throwing right-handed pitchers, following fellow draft-eligible righty Aaron Crow (who will pitch for the Fort Worth Cats of the independent league next spring) and Max Scherzer. While both of those two pitchers were all about their power fastballs, Gibson's claim to fame is an absolutely wicked slider that could profile as the single best pitch of those thrown by '09 draft eligibles.

 

And that isn't to say Gibson doesn't throw hard. He sits in the upper-80s to low-90s, and can max out around 93-94. His fastball can straighten out, and he struggles to command the pitch at times, often relying far too much on his slider than he should. His changeup also shows the potential to be a plus-pitch, giving him a solid three-pitch repertoire.

 

Built tall and lean, Gibson has very long, skinny yet strong limbs and a narrow waist. With wide shoulders and solid through the waist, there is plenty of room for Gibson to fill out and continue to add strength. His arm action works wells, although he can overthrow his fastball, which, as noted above, causes him to fall a little too much in love with his slider.

 

With a big, angular leg kick, Gibson's delivery can be on the slow side, even out of the stretch, which makes him easier to run off of, but that hasn't been as big of a problem during his college career given his knack for limiting baserunners.

 

He has all of the talent to succeed at the highest of levels, but my biggest concerns with Gibson at this point in time have to do with his fastball. A little added movement to go along with more confidence in the pitch will allow him to succeed more as a starter. If he continues to rely on his slider to succeed, he could end up in a short-relief role, a role he is plenty familiar with since only 23 of his 68 appearances during his college career, which includes one summer spent on the Cape and another with Team USA, have been as a starter. That's not the worst thing in the world, since his slider and stature are quite similar to those of Brad Lidge.

 

Here are the cumulative numbers from college:

 

24-7, 3.14 ERA, 68 games (23 starts), 2 complete games, 9 saves, 218 innings, 190 hits, 249 K, 57 BB, 1.13 WHIP

[colbyjack]

http://www.baseballamerica.com/images/awhite08428309aw.jpg

 

Alex White is up next, and I'm going to start with his cumulative stat line:

 

21-11, 3.67 ERA, 46 games (36 starts), 2 CG, 1 save, 225.2 IP, 196 H, 227 K, 98 BB, 1.30 WHIP

 

White was part of a very talented North Carolina draft class coming out of high school in 2006, a class that included a pair of Tar Heel starters that he ended up replacing, Andrew Miller and Daniel Bard. Like Miller and Bard three years before, North Carolina didn't hesitate placing White into a weekend starting role, and he pitched quite well, starting 18 games and tossing nearly 100 innings with an ERA of 4.94. Since his freshman year he has enjoyed a very successful summer on the Cape and a very good sophomore year, in which he went 13-3 with a 2.83 ERA. His 13 wins were tied for tops in the nation, while he finished 10th nationally with 113 strikeouts.

 

He's a great all-around athlete, as he could have been drafted for his bat as an infielder, and even received interest for his skills as a point guard in basketball. The Dodgers drafted him in the 14th round, but they had no chance to sign him away from UNC.

 

With a prototypical build, and a nice and easy, athletic delivery, White is able to maintain his 91-94 mph fastball deep into games. He has improved the velocity and command on his fastball, a pitch that shows very good, natural late movement. As good as his fastball is, his slider is his best pitch, a wicked breaker that is nearly impossible for right-handed hitters to track when it's working at its best. He also throws a changeup, but hasn't need it too much up until this point in time.

 

As you can tell by the stat line above, he does need to work on honing his control. His stuff is so good that he often isn't able to control where it goes as well as he would like to. It is an area he has improved, while also learning how to work off of his fastball instead of pitching off of the success of his slider.

 

White is currently ranked among the top two to four draft eligible prospects in the nation, as he and teammate Dustin Ackley will be drawing large scouting crowds on a daily basis.

[colbyjack]

http://www.aflacallamerican2008.com/imageGallery/gallery%2FGame%20Day%2F42.JPG

 

I'm going to profile one of my favorite 2009 draft eligible players today, Rocky Mount, NC outfielder Brian Goodwin, who had a very successful summer in which he participated in both the Aflac All-American Classic and the Under Armour Classic, being named the MVP of the Aflac game (as shown in the picture above).

 

Goodwin is the type of player that makes it very obvious when watching him that the game of baseball comes very naturally to him. He does a lot of little things well, and has four legitimate tools, lacking power as the only tool to make him the always coveted five-tool talent.

 

And despite his lack of power, Goodwin will surprise you with his pop from time to time. Most of his power goes to the gaps, and his 6.5 speed allows him to leg out plenty of extra base hits. His bat is made for contact, as he excels at putting the ball in play and going with pitches to drive the ball up the middle and the other way. He is extremely fast out of the box, and gets down the line to first base as a left-handed hitter as well as anyone, allowing him to be a threat on infield grounders and bunt plays. His speed makes him an additional threat on the basepaths, and his overall offensive package profiles perfectly for a leadoff hitting centerfielder.

 

In the outfield he takes good routes on fly balls and has plenty of speed to cover a lot of ground in a hurry. His arm is also a plus tool, and overall he profiles in a very similar fashion to the Pittsburgh Pirates' Andrew McCutchen, or on a more complimentary scale, Kenny Lofton.

 

The icing on the cake is his character, with a great personality and strong leadership qualities. His athleticism and speed allows him to excel in football as well, although his future lies on the baseball diamond. He has committed to North Carolina, a university that has a knack for not letting too many of their recruits slip away, although Goodwin has the talent right now to be considered a legitimate first-rounder.

[colbyjack]

http://www.aflacallamerican2008.com/imageGallery/gallery%2FHome%20Run%20Derby%2F11.JPG

 

Donovan Tate has the physical presence, good looks and the personality that causes people to turn their heads when he walks into a room. He is a two-sport star that is the son of legendary former Georgia Bulldogs running back Lars Tate, who spent a few years in the NFL with the Buccaneers.

 

Tate hasn't yet decided which sport he will focus on, but many believe he will end up with baseball. He did declare towards the end of the summer that he was going to give up football, but changed his mind a few days later, likely being advised that his dual-sport aspirations could lead to a bigger payday. Like his father, he plays running back, and is being recruiter by several prominent national programs asking him to play for them in both sports.

 

On the baseball field Tate is a true five-tool athlete. He has a very strong arm, very good speed and very good power potential. His power comes from a lightning quick bat that can catch up with the hardest of fastballs. He profiles in a similar fashion to Cameron Maybin from a few years ago, although Tate's football body gives him a more intimidating, physical presence.

 

He also shows an advanced sense for the game, although despite all of his tools, he does have some holes in his swing at this point in time. That of course is not uncommon for a player at his age, but he isn't as refined of a hitter as some of his peers.

 

His commitment to baseball may be reinforced by his alliance with Scott Boras, who definitely will use his two-sport value to drive up his pricetag. Boras advisees are never afraid to walk away from a deal and attend college, although Tate has yet to commit to a school. On talent alone, Tate could go among the top three to five overall selections in next June's draft.

[colbyjack]

http://assets.espn.go.com/photo/2007/0621/ncaa_a_ackley2_275.jpg

 

Dustin Ackley has been hitting every since he stepped on UNC's campus, and joins teammate Alex White among the top 3-7 overall prospects available for the 2009 draft.

 

Like White, Ackley's talents were well known about in high school, and he didn't miss a beat during his freshman year hitting .402 with 33 extra-base hits and showing advanced mastery of the strike zone. He hasn't hit under .400 at any level during college, which includes a short stint on the Cape this past summer. He had Tommy John surgery last summer (which shortened his time on the Cape) to take care of some lingering elbow problems, and he expects to be at full strength for the beginning of the spring season after missing fall practices and scrimmages.

 

But it's not Ackley's arm that excites scouts, it's his bat. He has a great, natural left-handed swing with a knack for making consistent, hard contact while rarely getting fooled at the plate. He drives the ball to the gaps with authority, and many expect his over-the-fence power to improve as his body matures and as he progresses as a hitter overall. A true and pure hitter, he should hit for a high average while drawing his fair share of walks while limiting the number of times he strikes out.

 

Ackley is also a very good overall athlete, and could play centerfield next spring for the Tar Heels after spending his first two years at first base. He's similar to Darin Erstad in that regard in that his athleticism allows him to play both position, but his bat at this stage is more similar to Todd Helton's. I've even heard comparisons to John Olerud tossed around when Ackley's name has come up.

 

No matter who you want to try and compare Ackley to, the fact remains that there is no more sure bet to hit at the next level. It doesn't seem as though many are concerned about his health problems, as the only real concern surrounding Ackley moving towards the 2009 draft is his affiliation with Scott Boras.

 

Regardless of his advisement, it's impossible not to fall in love with these numbers:

 

.410/.484/602 in 615 ABs, 45 2B, 8 3B, 19 HR, 99:58 BB to K ratio, 32 for 41 on stolen base attempts (78% success rate), 7 errors

[colbyjack]

http://www.capecodbaseball.org/Weekly/week2008/Photos/AW_GrantGreen.jpg

 

When covering the 2005 Aflac All-American Classic, Grant Green was a popular subject when talking about the top prospects available for the 2006 draft with the scouts and college recruiters in attendance. His athleticism was obvious, and scouts knew he had the complete package. He was a little slow to develop, and at the time there were some concerned that his body type and size would necessitate a move to third base down the road, and his swing was a tad long.

 

Three years later, Green's value has exploded by showing five true tools, putting up impressive numbers, and silencing critics about his ability to stick at the shortstop position.

 

That "tad-long" swing allows him to get great extension at the plate, the source of his power potential, and he has shown he can make the necessary adjustments swinging a wood bat in his two summers playing on the Cape. This past summer he finished second in the league in slugging percentage (.547), third in hits (56), doubles (12) and extra-base hits (19), while finishing fourth in hitting (.348) and fifth in on-base percentage (.451).

 

Green showcases the rare combination of size, power and speed, making him an exciting, new generation, big-bodied shortstop prospect who has received comparisons to Troy Tulowitzki. He continues to get better and better with every stop he makes, and could be among the top three to five players taken next June. He will be advised by Scott Boras, a recurring theme among the top players eligible for the 2009 draft, so you never know where he will be drafted.

 

Here are his cumulative college numbers:

 

.340/.412/.540 in 721 AB, 49 2B, 16 3B, 21 HR, 79:149 BB:K ratio, 37 for 51 in stolen base attempts (73% success rate), 42 errors

[colbyjack]

http://cache.daylife.com/imageserve/07xSgywbRMg5P/610x.jpg

 

It's Aaron Crow's turn to be profiled, who also was one of the top prospects available for this past year's draft. He went ninth overall to the Nationals, but did not sign, making him eligible for the draft once again next year. He has left Mizzou, and has decided to showcase his talents with the Fort Worth Cats of the independent American Association league next spring, an approach that his former Mizzou Tigers teammate Max Scherzer used two years ago to promote his abilities before signing with the Diamondbacks (before MLB instituted the August 15th signing date).

 

Crow isn't a perfect pitching prospect. There are concerns about a "hook" in his delivery, which can somewhat be seen in the picture above, in which there is a little extra and somewhat wasted movement with his delivery. His size is also in question, as he is generally listed at 6'2", and the delivery along with his smaller stature leads many to wonder if he can truly be a front-of-the-rotation starter, or if he would be better suited in relief.

 

It's hard to argue with the results, as Crow had a great junior campaign in which he went 13-0 on his way to being named the Big 12's pitcher of the year. He was coming off of a very successful stint in the Cape Cod League the summer before, in which he led the league with a 0.67 ERA on his way to being named the league's top prospect.

 

Here are his cumulative college stats:

 

26-9, 2.97 ERA, 60 games (52 starts), 7 CG, 343 IP, 307 H, 313 K, 100 BB, 1.19 WHIP

 

His fastball is his best pitch, and he does an excellent job commanding the entire strike zone with his heater which sits in the 91-96 range and can touch 98 on occasion. He does a good job keeping the ball down in the zone, and paints the corners like a seasoned veteran. His slider is also a plus pitch, and he also has a changeup, but hasn't thrown it as much, mostly because he hasn't needed it. His availability in next year's draft complements an already existing strength of powerful college pitchers.

[colbyjack]

http://cache.daylife.com/imageserve/0asP0oYbtCbGu/610x.jpg

 

I was a big fan of left-handed pitcher Mike Minor when he was one of the top prospects coming out of Tennessee eligible for the 2006 draft. He slid to the 13th round due to his commitment to Vanderbilt, and at the time was pitching in the 85-88 range with an effortless delivery and refined changeup.

 

Minor still appears to throw effortlessly, and his velocity now consistently sits in the 88-91 range, touching a few ticks higher on occasion. He commands his fastball extremely well, and also mixes in a very good changeup that gives him an excellent two-pitch arsenal. His changeup is thrown with the exact same arm speed and angle as his fastball, which makes it that much more difficult to identify, and gives him a legitimate out pitch against right-handed batters.

 

His breaking ball hasn't progressed as well, and was the biggest mark against him coming out of high school. When I saw him pitch during his freshman year at Vanderbilt, when he quickly went from being a mid-week starter to the Commodores Saturday starter following David Price during weekend series, he was throwing a slider. Reportedly he started throwing more of a true curveball last summer while pitching for Team USA, and scouts were encouraged by that pitch's developement. His fastball-changeup combo is good enough to allow him to succeed, but mastering that third pitch could be the difference in him being a great starter as opposed to a good one.

 

Minor follows some pretty good left-handed pitchers that have come out of Vanderbilt in recent years which includes the aforementioned David Price as well as Ryan Mullins and Jeremy Sowers. While he doesn't profile as a true staff ace due to the lack of intimidating raw stuff, it's hard to argue with his results, and few pitchers available for the 2009 draft command the strike zone as well as Minor does.

 

Here are his numbers from college, which includes his two years at Vandy and two summers spent with Team USA:

 

21-8, 3.07 ERA, 51 games (39 starts), 2 CG, 1 save, 246.1 IP, 233 H, 233 K, 60 BB, 1.19 WHIP

[colbyjack]

http://www.baseballamerica.com/images/jturner08428309ab.jpg

 

Jacob Turner started two prominent showcase events last summer, first taking the ball for the West squad at the Aflac All-American Classic, and then doing so again a week later at the Under Armour game at Wrigley Field. He looked a lot better during the Aflac game, but many of the pitchers looked worn down at the Under Armour event, which is no surprise after a long summer of performing at a high level, not to mention the travel involved.

 

Turner also made a pair of starts for the USA Baseball 18U National Team, dominating the opposition by striking out 19 batters in just over 10 innings of work. I had the chance to see Turner in person last February as he attended the Perfect Game Indoor Showcase, where he showed perhaps the easiest and fastest arm in the nation, and that included the talented '08 prep pitchers that were also in attendance.

 

He is a very similar pitcher to Tim Melville (who also hailed from Missouri), in that he has a very big, strong yet projectable build, and he is a fine overall athlete. Like Melville, he also commands the strike zone very well with his fastball, which sits in the low 90s and can touch 94. In addition to his command, his fastball has some nice, sinking life to it. He has great mound presence and works off of his fastball perfectly.

 

Turner also throws a mid-70s curveball that is a plus pitch, as well as a really nice changeup. He commands his entire repertoire very well. His windup is slow and patient, but his arm is incredibly fast, as he uses his entire body well in generating velocity, with very good overall pitching mechanics.

 

Signability likely will be an issue with Turner, who has committed to North Carolina and plans on using Scott Boras as his advisor. He presents the best package of upside and refinement of any prep pitcher available for the 2009 draft.

[colbyjack]

http://cache.daylife.com/imageserve/05OH5AZ9JRedc/610x.jpg

 

Baylor's Kendal Volz has been expected to be one of the top prospects available for the 2009 draft for several years now as he was part of a talented Baylor recruiting class a few years ago that includes Aaron Miller, Dustin Dickerson, Raynor Campbell and Shawn Tolleson.

 

A strong and powerfully built righty listed at 6'5", 225 pounds, Volz is built like a linebacker with thick proportions and a strong lower half. His size allows him to pump his fastball consistently in the 90-93 range and he can touch the mid-90s, especially when used in shorter outings. He also throws a power breaking ball, somewhat in between a curve and a slider, that he's able to change the velocity in order to either drop it in the zone or bury it in the dirt.

 

His mechanics aren't perfect, as he throws a little across his body and there's effort to his delivery. He may be better suited to a relief role, where he excelled serving at Team USA's closer, recording 8 saves and not giving up an earned run in 13 appearances, during the summer of 2008. While he does throw a changeup, his fastball and slurve are his best offerings, which may further suggest a permanent move to the bullpen.

 

Here are his numbers from two years at Baylor, and his summers spent with Team USA and on the Cape:

 

10-15, 4.39 ERA, 51 games (34 starts), 1 CG, 8 saves, 203 IP, 219 H, 216 K, 99 BB, 1.40 WHIP

[colbyjack]

http://assets.espn.go.com/photo/2008/0310/ncaa_davis1_300.jpg

 

Kentrail Davis has always been able to hit, and was one of my favorite prospects available for the 2007 draft. A former Aflac All-American, he dropped to the 14th round in the draft after missing some time during his senior year after being involved in a car accident, which also effected his productivity. His affiliation with Scott Boras also creates questions about his signability, and as a draft-eligible sophomore he could slide yet again in next year's draft should he choose to maximize his projected payday durng his junior year at Tennessee.

 

Davis is an exciting all-around offensive player. He is very well built for such a short (5'9") ballplayer, and is at his best lacing line drives from gap-to-gap while also having respectable home run power. He has a patient approach at the plate, and commands the strike zone well. Once he is on the basepaths he is a threat to steal, and he profiles as a left-handed version of Shannon Stewart. Davis could fit in almost any lineup as either a leadoff, two-hole or three-hole hitter.

 

Despite having very good speed, his defense isn't as polished as his offense, as he's probably limited to left field at the professional level due to less than ideal instincts and a below average throwing arm.

 

He was the best positional prospect of those that participated with Team USA last summer, and led the team in hitting coming off of his freshman year before leaving the team due to a wrist injury.

 

Here are the numbers from Team USA and his freshman year for the Volunteers:

 

.335/.443/.567, 233 AB, 9 2B, 3 3B, 13 HR, 28 BB, 63 K, 9 for 11 in stolen base attempts, 3 errors

[colbyjack]

http://www.dailycal.org/photos/20080630/102000-06.30.smith.CHOW-02.jpg

 

Scouts are unsure where RHP/OF Blake Smith will eventually play as a professional. He profiles very well in both facets of the game, as here's a look at his numbers as both a hitter and as a pitcher:

 

.298/.387/.504, 520 AB, 31 2B, 5 3B, 22 HR, 56 BB, 148 K, 12 for 21 SB attempts, 6 errors

 

6-0, 3.03 ERA, 47 games (0 starts), 4 saves, 65.1 IP, 48 H, 89 K, 28 BB, 1.16 WHIP

 

He has a very good, powerfully built, athletic frame at 6'2", 220. He has long, strong legs that give him a very sturdy pitching base, and as a hitter he resembles Jeff Francoeur.

 

So far during his career he has been used primarily as a reliever, where he excelled coming out of the bullpen for Team USA last summer while not giving up an earned run. He used a low-90s fastball, that occasionally touches the 94-95 range, and hammer curve to record his outs, and the Bears may choose to use him as a starter next spring due to the departures of two of their best weekend starters. However, they also lost their star closer, and may be tempted to use Smith in this role since the team also lost their three best hitters due to the draft, so they don't wear him down physically over the course of the spring.

 

He was also second on Team USA in batting, home runs and slugging. He profiles perfectly in right field with his power arm/bat combination, and he exhibits a pretty good eye at the plate. His swing can get long with the tendency to whiff.

 

I personally like Smith better as a pitcher, and think he could have very good value as a starter even if he is used as the Bears' closer next spring. His arm is relatively fresh, and in the right system he could really flourish.

[colbyjack]

http://media.reporternews.com/abil/content/img/photos/2008/04/05/20080405-224211-pic-116951462.jpg

 

Shelby Miller is quickly making a name for himself, although you could argue that people weren't paying attention before the summer hit, as he tossed three consecutive no-hitters during the spring, the last of which was a perfect game.

 

Recently in Jupiter, Florida at the WWBA World Championship, Miller tossed two games, both of which he recorded 94 mph with his fastball. His fastball velocity sits in the 88-92 range, and he does a good job maintaining that velocity deep into ballgames. Since he has already enjoyed a spike, many believe that he will only add more to his heater given his size, frame and easy delivery, as it isn't crazy to think that he will be throwing 94 with greater regularity in the next few years.

 

His curveball and changeup are also solid pitches, and he throws all three pitches for strikes. He knows how to change speeds, working his secondary offerings off of the success of his fastball unlike most high school players exhibit. Like almost all prep players, he has some mechanical issues to improve, but nothing that is considered serious.

 

As Matthew Purke and Tyler Matzek are creating a debate as to which one is the top pre lefty in the nation, Miller's emergence is creating a similar debate between he and Jacob Turner among the nation's righties. Miller has committed to play for Texas A&M.