Cameron's option picked up (see reply #128)

[trwi7]

He is what he is....a low OBP

Well see, your problem right here is thinking that Cameron is a low OBP player. I posted the graph once, I guess I'll post it again.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs/1070_OF_season_full_1_20080930.png

 

Cameron is not a problem in regards to our low OBP. The culprits are Hall and Hart and to a lesser extent Kendall, but most catchers can't hit and his OBP is okay.

 

[kramnoj]

Let's put some numbers into context here. ZiPs expects Cameron to have a similar season to 2008, but to lose about .30 points of slugging. I think that's reasonable. In the 120 games Cameron played, his bat was worth .5 a win over an average hitter. Add 20+ more games played in 2009 with slightly less power, I think a .5 batting win projection is fair.

 

ZiPs projects Gwynn to have an OBP/SLG of .313/.314. I know that Gwynn supporters will find that to be too pessimistic, but that is better than what Gwynn has done so far in the majors, and it's not that far from the .328/.331 that Gwynn managed in AAA in 2008. Let's try to figure out how bad that would be in batting wins. Gwynn's projection for 2009 is worse than what Kendall provided with the bat for the Brewers in 2008, when Kendall was rated as providing -1.9 batting wins. There could easily be a 2.5-3 Win difference in the batting of Gwynn and Cameron. Gwynn isn't expected to be better on the bases or in the field, so that 2.5-3 Wins is what we are looking at. There's no way that the Brewers can expect to be able to buy 2.5-3 Wins for $10M in FA at any other position, or get equivalent value.

 

I do think there's a chance that Cameron could still be traded. I don't think Melvin picks up the option unless he is comfortable with Cameron in the lineup. But if Melvin finds a trade for Cameron that would bring back good value and if Melvin thinks he can find the next Podsednik or Clark, Cameron might find himself in another uniform in 09.

[danzig6767]

Count me as disappointed. Its not that i think Cameron is a bad player, but when you look at the weaknesses of the offense last season, Cameron was the epidomy of them. Yes, he'll hit a lot of homeruns. But homeruns were not the problem last year. He is a right handed, low contact, strikeout hitter with power. Let's face it, if Cameron werent on the team last year, and we signed him to a one year 10 million dollar deal this offseason, people would be like "what the heck? How is he going to fix the offense?"

The offense had warts, but you don't "fix it" by removing Cameron and inserting an inferior hitter just because maybe the new guy will strike out less, but the overall production is also less. Cameron is one player and CF is just one position on the team, he produced well for what we paid him. The problems with the offense was the other players on the roster around Cameron who didn't perform well enough.

I liked the idea of signing Edmonds to a one year $5 million deal. While his defense isnt what it once was, he is far from a liability out there. He is a left handed hitter and he'll get you 25 homeruns with a higher OBP and fewer K's. You can put Gwynn or Kapler in there twice a week to keep Edmonds fresh. Plus with that $5 million you save you can sign a solid reliever.

Even if Melvin wanted to consider that idea with Edmonds, who knows if Edmonds would choose to play here. If he decided to play elsewhere, now suddenly the Brewers are sitting there will a gaping hole at a very important position in CF. Melvin had to decide on Cameron today. He didn't have the luxury to sit back and wait awhile to see if he could fill the CF position in a different fashion that he liked better, then if he couldn't, just assume he could get Cameron back at a later time and for only one season at 10 million.

 

Plus, he is not worth $10 million. No way is he worth $10 million, even in todays game.

You're right, Cameron isn't worth 10 million, he's worth more. If Melvin had declined the option, my guess is Cameron would have fetched something around a 2yr/24-25 million dollar deal.

[paul253]

Who would have been playing CF or 3B last year if not for the signing of Cameron? Gwynn? Gross? Compared to the alternatives, there probably would be a lot of people that would have been happy with signing Cameron.

 

We're not talking about last year. I didnt have a problem with the signing last year because he filled a need. Who'd have known Hall would stink it up so much?

 

The graph shows that his OBP was below the "good" mark each of the past 2 years and 4 out of the last 5, possibly 6 out of the last 7 (its kind of hard to see with such a small distance covering 100 points). If you look at a guy like Edmonds, who I think you could get for less than $10 million, his OBP was much better last year (.369), and that included a terrible 90abs in San Diego. Throughout his career which is roughly equivalent to Cameron's in terms of length and ABs, he has an OBP 37 points higher. Plus he hits lefty. So while Cameron may be, say, average with OBP, why settle for "average" when the possibilities to improve are out there? Plus, you add a lefthanded bat while the defense drops, but like I said, I wouldnt call Edmonds a liability out there.

 

I'm not arguing against trading Hall or Hart....but lets not forget that Corey Hart wasnt that bad until September. He was the only player to not recover from his September slump, and he was obviously pressing, so his numbers took a nosedive. His '07 season shows that he is at least capable of putting up a good OBP\. And Hall would be more valuable as a super sub again then for anything you could get for him out of a trade.

 

 

 

Like I said, what we are going to end up with is same offense with worse pitching? How is this going to improve our team?

[paul253]

The offense had warts, but you don't "fix it" by removing Cameron and inserting an inferior hitter just because maybe the new guy will strike out

How is he an inferior hitter? Last year he had a higher average, and higher OBP, a MUCH higher slugging percentage (even if you include his numbers in SD), and the only 5 fewer HR's in less ABs. This has nothing to do with strikeouts, but Edmonds had fewer of those too.

You dont fix the offense by trotting out the exact same offense and hoping it gets better.

[valpocrewsader]

Put me in the "had to do it" camp, however, I like hearing some of the dissenting opinions. We're still talking about a single player making more than 10% of the payroll. It kinda feels like the Gagne deal and the numbers being thrown around for CC might've altered everyone's perspectives quite suddenly -- for better or for worse.

 

I also never like seeing such hate for TGJ. He'll never slug, but he offers more than just being left-handed and fast. He plays great defense, at worst he's on par with 2009 Cameron, better than Hart would handle CF, much better than Hall did. He'd probably be the best situational hitter in the lineup, including but not limited to bunting abilities that probably supass the rest of our roster. I know admitting an appreciation for contact hitting gives you an automatic dunce cap avatar around here, but I'm not sure I can take anymore of watching the Weekses and Halls and Camerons saunter up to the plate with runners in scoring position and K before they even dig in. And TGJ, isn't just fast, but he's smart on the basepaths as well. Might be the smartest player we'd have in all aspects of the game. And he still has some upside and room to improve. A strong argument can be made for keeping him out of our lineup, but I don't think it's preposterous to throw it out there -- it's a $9 million difference! And it's sad to see TGJ ripped unfairly.

 

All that said, most of the positives that TGJ has, Cameron has them and more. And it's not my money and I want this team to be as good as it can possibly be. And looking at the contracts given to Andruw Jones and Gary Matthews Jr, this seems like a bargain. And while I don't like the notion I'm sensing that a $10 million salary can be treated like it's not $10 million anymore just because it's only a 1 year deal, it's hard not to like the short term commitment. So I'm down with DM's decision.

 

There are other ways to get left handers in the lineup. 3B is open, and I'd love for them to open up 2B and RF to anyone else out there (and 1B, for that matter, but that's not helping our LH bat situation....).

[kramnoj]

Like I said, what we are going to end up with is same offense with worse pitching? How is this going to improve our team?

 

This improves the team by not allowing it to be 2-3 Wins worse with Gwynn in the lineup. As for Edmonds, ZiPs projects him to be worse than Cameron next year, with a .334/.425 projection. Edmonds certainly had a nice 250 ABs for the Cubs, but he was awful for the Padres and he wasn't good the year before. And he'll be 39 next year. Combine that with the excellent point that you can't count on Edmonds being available, and it's hard to argue that bringing Cameron back isn't the best decision.

[BrewCrewForever]

I like the move. If there had been a good left handed hitting CF out there then I would have prefered that. But with that option not really available Cameron is probably the best option for 2009. And now we don't have to worry about a possible TGJ experiment.

[endaround]

Thats nice except for the fact that Gwynn isn't a contact hitter. Not only doesn't he hit for power he strikes out a whole lot. Give him 600 PAs and he'll have 90-100Ks.

[jhart05]

Thats nice except for the fact that Gwynn isn't a contact hitter.

 

Oh, but he looks like he should be, and he does have that name on the back of his jersey.

 

 

I can't wait 'till they trade him to the Padres. And I hope they start him, so everyone can see why a playoff caliber ball club, did not want him starting everyday.

 

 

Edmonds is nothing more than a platoon player at this point in his career.

[danzig6767]

The offense had warts, but you don't "fix it" by removing Cameron and inserting an inferior hitter just because maybe the new guy will strike out

 

How is he an inferior hitter? Last year he had a higher average, and higher OBP, a MUCH higher slugging percentage (even if you include his numbers in SD), and the only 5 fewer HR's in less ABs. This has nothing to do with strikeouts, but Edmonds had fewer of those too.

You dont fix the offense by trotting out the exact same offense and hoping it gets better.

You seem to be just assuming that Edmonds would sign here, that's based on what? If he chose to sign elsewhere after we declined the option for Cameron, the Brewers would have a gaping hole in CF. Don't just gloss over the fact that Melvin had to decide on Cameron by today, Doug didn't have the luxury to exhaust any other options for CF first and then decide on whether to pick up the player option.

 

As for improving the offense, the offseason just started. Who knows right now what exactly the team will look like come opening day? I think someone new will be playing third base this upcoming season. It certainly wouldn't be some massive shock if one of Weeks/Fielder/Hart was traded. Plus, as with any team, we have to hope some of the younger guys like Hart/Weeks have a better year if both are back. It's not like next year all the players will perform exactly like the year prior.

 

Look at the Cubs. Guys like Theriot, DeRosa, and Fontenot all had a much better season than the year prior. Soto and Dempster both performed much better than the team could have imagined.

 

Until we see exactly what the roster looks like in April, it's pretty hard IMO for anyone to say with any certainty what shape the team is in and if it's realistic to hope for a potential playoff berth. Given it's November, not April, i plan to wait and see how everything shakes out first. I'm just glad the team isn't sitting here right now with a gaping hole in CF that we have no clue if it would be able to be filled decently. The CF position isn't a weakness for the Brewers with Cameron. Decline the option though and get rebuffed later by say Edmonds and CF could instead have ended up being a big weakness.

[paul253]

Well that a valid point, but I was just responding to the "inferior hitter" comment. He is not inferior offensively to Cameron

 

As far as what he projects to be, I dont like to rely on computers to tell me what he's supposed to do. He had a good year this year and very well may have the same kind of year next year. I wouldnt have had a problem with Gwynn or Kapler playing twice a week to keep Edmonds fresh. But its all a moot point now because Cameron is back. I just want to go on record as saying I think its a bad move that wont improve the offense. If its a part of a bigger plan, then fine, but as it stands now, I dont like it.

[valpocrewsader]

Thats nice except for the fact that Gwynn isn't a contact hitter.

No chance the attitude could be more civil? An intelligent, friendly discussion would probably start more like, "Well, you might think he's a contact hitter, but actually...."

 

Maybe I don't know the definition of contact hitter, but I was putting him in direct comparison to Weeks, Cam, and Hall. In TGJ's time in Milwaukee, his K/AB rate has been about around 18% or so. Weeks? ~25% in those three years. Cam? ~27%. Hall? ~30%. And TGJ in the minors? low teens? Maybe that 14%-18% rate doesn't fit the definition of contact hitter, but 55 less strike outs in a full season sounds like more contact hitting to me. And TGJ can still improve on it....

[reillymcshane]

Like I said, what we are going to end up with is same offense with worse pitching? How is this going to improve our team?

The offense last year was 7th in the NL - slightly above average. But only one guy improved over 2007 - Hardy. Fielder, Weeks, Hall, Hart and even Braun - had worse years hitting in 2008. All these guys are approaching was should be their prime years - and there is real potential for all of them to improve. Is there a hole at 3B? Yes. But a lot of our guys can do better - and having Cameron a full year should help too. We'd have a chance to hit 230 HR like in 2007 instead of 198 like last year.

 

Does this team strike out a lot? Absolutely. Is it frustrating at times? Absolutely. But if you jack 230 HR, I'll live with the Ks.

 

Do we need a left handed bat? Again, yes. Maybe it's Branyon. Maybe we make a deal for Blalock. Don't know. But losing an above average CF who hits 25 HR and gets on base at a .330-.340 clip just because he Ks a lot - and replacing him with...what, a singles hitter... doesn't work. No team is perfect, and at times, our weaknesses make the club look foolish. But over the long haul, it's about scoring runs.

 

The team is built for power. We should run with it. We can improve.

[homer]

If Gwynn had kept improving after his 2nd year in AA I'd be willing to give him a shot but he's gotten worse. He's running out of time to improve - he'll be 26 at the start of next season (same age as Weeks).

[endaround]

No chance the attitude could be more civil?

I'm sorry I was curt, but I'm tired of Gwynn being made to be something he isn't. He isn't a contact hitter, he isn't a great base stealer and from reports he isn't much more than above average defender. Keep in mind Weeks and Gwynn are the same age (Weeks is 1 month older) so there isn't any reason to expect him to get tons better. Does he strike out less than the other, yes, but that's mostly because he walks less. When people talk contact hitter, they think Kendall in his prime and he would K at a rate about half of Gwynn's.

[paul253]

The offense last year was 7th in the NL - slightly above average. But only one guy improved over 2007 - Hardy. Fielder, Weeks, Hall, Hart and even Braun - had worse years hitting in 2008. All these guys are approaching was should be their prime years - and there is real potential for all of them to improve. Is there a hole at 3B? Yes. But a lot of our guys can do better - and having Cameron a full year should help too. We'd have a chance to hit 230 HR like in 2007 instead of 198 like last year.

 

Until September, when the offense took a nosedive. It may be that they choked because of the situation, but how scary would it be that the league finally learned how to pitch to them?

[RobertR]

Considering that you really can't count on Edmonds for much more than 110 games, I think you can call him an "inferior hitter" to Cameron. Or perhaps, "less productive" when you account for projected playing time. And that's assuming a) Edmonds doesn't retire, b) Edmonds has much left at age 39, and c) the Brewers could beat out everyone else for him in the first place. Edmonds looked done in 2007 and the first part of this year, so there are definite warning signs.

 

Right now I think Lorenzo Cain in the centerfielder of the future for the Brewers, but he's probably not ready until 2010. Having a guy on a one year contract works well for the Brewers in that respect and not having to risk the unknown at a position with very few attractive players is probably a wise strategic choice.

 

I think the only real problem with the Brewers offense in September was the team was out of gas (Kendall specifically) and/or hurting (Braun, Branyan, Kapler, Hart?). The Brewers have basically been productive for the last 2 years and teams don't suddenly get "figured out" completely.

 

Robert

[Ennder]

Until September, when the offense took a nosedive. It may be that they choked because of the situation, but how scary would it be that the league finally learned how to pitch to them?

If all of our players were suddenly 'figured out' we are screwed regardless. More likely we just had a team wide slump in September. Almost every single offensive player on our team underproduced their expected offense based on projections. That is not something that happens on a regular basis especially with a young team like we have. I feel very comfortable assuming the offense will improve even without replacing anyone. If you really need to replace someone it is Hall or Hart as they completely destroyed our offense with the rest of the team being above average pretty much (minus Kendall of course).

[paul253]

Considering that you really can't count on Edmonds for much more than 110 games, I think you can call him an "inferior hitter" to Cameron. Or perhaps, "less productive" when you account for projected playing time. And that's assuming a) Edmonds doesn't retire, b) Edmonds has much left at age 39, and c) the Brewers could beat out everyone else for him in the first place. Edmonds looked done in 2007 and the first part of this year, so there are definite warning signs.

 

How can you claim him playing 110 games makes him an inferior hitter? One has nothing to do with the other. And looking at the numbers, how can you claim that Cameron had a better year offensively than Edmonds did? There seems to be a lot of pro Cameron bias here.

 

Edmonds was just a possibility i threw out, I wasnt basing my entire off season plan around him.

[PeaveyFury]

How can you claim him playing 110 games makes him an inferior hitter

 

I think 'less productive' was the interpretation he was going for.

[And That]

How can you claim him playing 110 games makes him an inferior hitter?

Assuming two players have basically equal value offensively, and assuming one will play 110 games, while the other will play 140 games, the guy who plays 110 games will naturally be inferior. He doesn't have the opportunity to make the same impact as his equivalent counterpart.

[LouisEly]

Everything Valpo said.

 

I think this quote from Cam kind of sums up where most people (or at least most of those who are challenging picking up the option) stand:

 

I just spoke on the phone with Cameron and he is pumped about coming back to Milwaukee. And he said he honestly was surprised that the option got picked up because he wondered if the Brewers would have to divert the money elsewhere.

 

"I know we've got so many young players about to get pay raises," he said. "I didn't think my option would get picked up. This was a surprise, to be honest with you.

 

I think most of those who are challenging the signing are not challenging whether or not Cam is worth $10M - considering offense and defense he is worth what equates to a one-year, $10M deal. The point that most of those who are challenging the move are making is whether or not the money could have been better spent elsewhere. While MA has much deeper pockets than Bud, those pockets are not limitless. DM has X amount of $$ available with which to build this team. Perhaps $2M spent on a Kapler/TGJ platoon as a stopgap until 2011 when Cain might be ready to take over (I don't think Cain is going to jump from a handful of AA at-bats in 2008 to the majors in 2010 - he'll be at AA in 2009 and will likely need another year of upper-minors experience) with the other $8M being spent elsewhere, if spent in the right areas on the right player, might be better in the short run or long run. Perhaps trading some of their surplus (RH corner OFs) for a CF from somewhere else may have been overall a better move.

 

All things being equal, I think Cam is worth one year at $10M. But I am open to the possibility that if that option comes at the expense of other areas (namely pitching or not being able to afford Hardy, Hart, or Fielder) then perhaps it might not have been the best move.

[Ennder]

I think most of those who are challenging the signing are not challenging whether or not Cam is worth $10M - considering offense and defense he is worth what equates to a one-year, $10M deal.

 

Unfortunately most of them don't think he was worth $10M in the first place. A lot of people think that cameron was a bad player last year for some odd reason. I have no big issue with someone saying they'd rather spend the $10M elsewhere though personally I think we have no other options at CF that comes close to being viable(Gwynn/Kapler would be a disaster as an example, no way in heck we can spend $10M elsewhere and make up for that train wreck).

[endaround]

The only reason I could see someone upset with this is if they think that due to the relatively high number of 1B/DH/LF types on the market there might be a chance to move Braun or Hart to CF and bring one in at below market value. Some player heavily undervalued over his career like Dunn, Burrell, or even get Giles via trade. I can understand that I just think there is no way could the team make up for the defensive hit.