Cameron's option picked up (see reply #128)

[TooLiveBrew]

Well that's a good example of finding numbers to support your desired point. The fact that you're arguing that Tony Gwynn Jr. should not be regarded as someone that can't hit is mind-boggling to me.

 

 

And if you're talking about Cam's projected runs which is a crapshoot estimate anyway, you should talk about the loss of runs from not spending the money elsewhere.

 

Do you have any other answer for the direct question of "Who would you sign to play CF?" other than Gwynn Jr? Worrying about losing runs & then wanting TGJ play in the bigs doesn't fit together.

[pete]

Why is it good when you find numbers to advocate for your position and not when I use the most recent ones to argue for mine?

[RobertR]

Tony Gwynn .339/.391/.403 in VWL play. Hernan Iribarren .362/.433/.586.

Hitting in the VWL has no correlation with hitting in MLB. Gwynn didn't hit in MLB this year. He hit poorly in AAA too. If Gwynn wanted to earn a major league job, he had plenty of opportunities to win a job in the states this year.

 

Robert

[logan82]

Why is it good when you find numbers to advocate for your position and not when I use the most recent ones to argue for mine?

Mostly because what you are asking us to do is ignore 4 years worth of at bats and use a spring training's worth of at bats to make a judgment.

[TooLiveBrew]

Why is it good when you find numbers to advocate for your position and not when I use the most recent ones to argue for mine?

 

Tony freaking Gwynn Jr:

 

2007 VWL (62 AB): .339/.391/.403/.794

 

Minor leagues (2227 AB): .273/.346/.342/.688

 

2008 AAA (375 AB): .275/.328/.331/.659

 

MLB (242 AB): .248/.300/.298/.500

 

 

Honestly now, what do you think is the most accurate way to describe Gwynn Jr. as a batter? You can't possibly stand behind a sampling of 62 AB, can you? That's what's wrong with 'your numbers'. You're cherry-picking to support a predetermined argument, not being objective.

 

 

I take it you don't have another suggestion to replace Cameron?

[pete]

Ah, good point - you're ignoring his Spring Training numbers.

 

VWL numbers have no correlation? Where is the study to support that or even the underlying reasoning? How about A ball numbers or recovering from injury numbers?

[pete]

You're cherry-picking to support a predetermined argument, not being objective.

 

 

I take it you don't have another suggestion to replace Cameron?

 

Come on, you're not going to claim the mantle of objectivity are you? You don't look for numbers to support your predetermined arguments?

 

Even taking old Gwynn numbers its easy to make an argument that the money would be better spent elsewhere.

[rluzinski]

A small sample in winter league vs. recent production in the majors and AAA? We are the ones searching for numbers to support our argument? Every project system must have an irrational hatred for Gwynn as well., along with Melvin and everyone else....

 

For the record, if my memory is correct, so far we have:

 

Against: Johnbriggs, Bucksman, AKA Pete

 

For: Everyone else.

[Ennder]

I don't think it is a slam dunk sure thing great move given Cameron's age and the amount of the contract. But you are really kidding yourself if you think Hall, Gwynn or Kapler would be effective full time in CF next year. All of those options would sink what chance we have at the playoffs as there is no way the $10M can be spent elsewhere to get enough to offset below average production in CF for most of the season.

 

Now something like signing an Edmonds and platooning him with Kapler might work out. It is a bit of a gamble but an idea like that is at least plausible.

[RobertR]

Ah, good point - you're ignoring his Spring Training numbers.

 

VWL numbers have no correlation? Where is the study to support that or even the underlying reasoning? How about A ball numbers or recovering from injury numbers?

Fine, here are the studies which 1) show that the VWL is significantly easier than AAA and 2) any improvement projected based on the player playing really well in Winter Ball is likely to be very minor.

 

http://www.baseballprospe...rticle.php?articleid=2528

http://www.baseballprospe...rticle.php?articleid=2541

 

Probably most damning, the correlation between Winter Ball performance and the following year of MLB performance is 0.33. That's without mentioning sample size issues.

 

Again, VWL stats mean very little.

 

Robert

[Fear The Chorizo]

I wouldn't mind bringing in a guy like Edmonds and using him as a CF/RF platoon-mate for when Hart or Cameron slump, or when the Brewers are facing tons of righthanded pitching. I don't think Edmonds should be an everyday player anymore, but for the right price he'd be exactly what the Brewers need on their bench. Add Kapler as the 5th OF on this roster, and that's a very solid group of outfield personnel that can also double as good pinch hit options if you ask me.

[RobertR]

I think if you're going to argue for an upgrade, the more likely scenario is moving Weeks to CF and bringing in a lefty with a good glove at 2B. Orlando Hudson is probably the only one that fits the bill as a switch hitter, but his career line of .282/.346/.433 and reputation as a Gold Glove worthy second baseman certainly would be arguable if you were willing to give up a Draft Pick and give up on Weeks at 2B.

 

I've brought up Robinson Cano before, but a 25 year old, left handed, second baseman with a career .303/.335/.468 line in 2218 ABs, certainly could bounce back after an off year. I wish he walked more, but I'd take a chance on the idea that one bad year for a young ballplayer isn't the end of the world.

 

Robert

[bucksman4]

I never said I was "against" the option being picked up. I just said I was confused. I think that when Melvin said at the conclusion of our season that the lineup's biggest weakness was its lack of a productive left-handed bat, I assumed that he meant it. I am just curious as to how he will find this bat and to what position on the field he will be able to insert that player. I contend that it will have to be 3B because we have no real solidified player at that spot set in stone yet. But to say I was against the move is going a little too far....

 

 

...just so long as they don't bat him leadoff.

[RobertR]

I never said I was "against" the option being picked up. I just said I was confused. I think that when Melvin said at the conclusion of our season that the lineup's biggest weakness was its lack of a productive left-handed bat, I assumed that he meant it. I am just curious as to how he will find this bat and to what position on the field he will be able to insert that player. I contend that it will have to be 3B because we have no real solidified player at that spot set in stone yet. But to say I was against the move is going a little too far....

 

 

...just so long as they don't bat him leadoff.

I don't think it's at all out of the realm of possibility that the Brewers trade someone like Hart or Weeks and bring in a lefty as a replacement.

 

Then again, the Brewers don't have to make major changes to have an above average offense in 2009. Fix third base and get some internal improvement. This was a playoff team after all. It would be nice to balance the lineup more, but it's not like they had a bad offense. What they would like to do ideally and what they actually can do are often different things.

 

Robert

[Ennder]

I've brought up Robinson Cano before, but a 25 year old, left handed, second baseman with a career .303/.335/.468 line in 2218 ABs, certainly could bounce back after an off year. I wish he walked more, but I'd take a chance on the idea that one bad year for a young ballplayer isn't the end of the world.

 

For what it is worth Cano was worse than Weeks defensively last year according to most metrics. It might have just been an off year though but Cano came out as the worst defensive 2B in baseball according to plus/minus. Certainly makes me a bit turned off by any trades involving him.

[Leinie Lodge]

If Tony Gwynn is our starter in CF for more than a handful of games, I'm rooting for a different team. He's fast and left handed. Aside from that he offers nothing of any value at all.

Hope San Diego sees value in TGJ ... like in a value package for Peavey!

 

Personally I'm glad to see Cammy back for another Untuck year.

[homer]

I really don't want to see Weeks in CF. He doesn't appear to have any fielding instincts at all in the field (I've seen him get turned around so often on pop ups that the thought of him going back on a line drive frightens me) and would be a very risky investment in CF for a team that may contend again next year.

[Sopranos62]

Do not bat Cameron leadoff, but I do think he slots very well in the bottom of the order. Also, (and not to get to far off topic) the Padres can have TGJ, but I am wary of Peavy. A little birdie told me most clubs believe he is going to get injured this season and that's why the Padres are trying to move him, but the risk might be worth the reward depending on what we'd give up. Overall, I like the move and hope TGJ is traded.

[paul253]

Count me as disappointed. Its not that i think Cameron is a bad player, but when you look at the weaknesses of the offense last season, Cameron was the epidomy of them. Yes, he'll hit a lot of homeruns. But homeruns were not the problem last year. He is a right handed, low contact, strikeout hitter with power. Let's face it, if Cameron werent on the team last year, and we signed him to a one year 10 million dollar deal this offseason, people would be like "what the heck? How is he going to fix the offense?" I liked the idea of signing Edmonds to a one year $5 million deal. While his defense isnt what it once was, he is far from a liability out there. He is a left handed hitter and he'll get you 25 homeruns with a higher OBP and fewer K's. You can put Gwynn or Kapler in there twice a week to keep Edmonds fresh. Plus with that $5 million you save you can sign a solid reliever. I think this is a bad move and its one less position you have available to find a high OBP guy. What we're going to have next year is the same offense with worse pitching.

[TooLiveBrew]

Come on, you're not going to claim the mantle of objectivity are you? You don't look for numbers to support your predetermined arguments

 

No, I'm not claiming some 'mantle of objectivity', but believe it or not, no I don't try to manipulate stats to support some ill-conceived notion I came up with 'cuz I saw it'. Objectivity is a heck of a lot more fun for me, because then I don't get spun in circles trying to convince myself that TGJ can hit. It's not fun for me to make random claims & then hope I can find a 62-AB sample that makes me 'right'.

 

 

Let's face it, if Cameron werent on the team last year, and we signed him to a one year 10 million dollar deal this offseason, people would be like "what the heck? How is he going to fix the offense?"

 

If by "people", you mean you & aka Pete, then yes you're right. But I would be very happy to add Cameron at a 1 yr./$10M deal. People are getting to the point of ignoring any & everything that might stand in the way of their odd distaste for one of the best CF in baseball in 2008. I really don't understand it.

[trwi7]

A couple nice add ons to the blog with quotes from Melvin and Cameron. Cameron was surprised they picked it up, but very happy to be back.

 

 

ADD TO ORIGINAL POST:

I just spoke with Doug Melvin from California, where he is attending the GM meetings. This is what he had to say about exercising the option on Cameron's contract:

"In a statistical analysis, he ranked as the sixth-best centerfielder in the major leagues. And he improved our pitching by playing centerfield the way he did.

"The only difficult thing is that we're so right-handed (throughout the lineup). But we felt he has value. When you look at his contract, we paid him $7.5 million average for two years. That's the way we viewed it.

"He has great make-up and gives us good chemistry in the clubhouse. There's a value to that as well."

I just spoke with Cameron's agent, Mike Nicotera, who told me Cameron is "very excited" to be coming back to the Brewers. I hope to speak to Cameron before the day is over.

ANOTHER ADD:

I just spoke on the phone with Cameron and he is pumped about coming back to Milwaukee. And he said he honestly was surprised that the option got picked up because he wondered if the Brewers would have to divert the money elsewhere.

"I know we've got so many young players about to get pay raises," he said. "I didn't think my option would get picked up. This was a surprise, to be honest with you.

"I'm very excited to be coming back to Milwaukee. I'm just thankful to get another opportunity to be inolved with a team that's one the verge of knocking some doors down on a yearly basis."

Link

[StearnsFTW]

But I would be very happy to add Cameron at a 1 yr./$10M deal. People are getting to the point of ignoring any & everything that might stand in the way of their odd distaste for one of the best CF in baseball in 2008. I really don't understand it.

 

This sums it up for me perfectly.

 

The dislike for Cameron from some posters on this board (and a lot of 'average' Brewer fans that I speak to) is just mind-boggling.

 

And the name I hear quite often as a replacement is Gwynn.

 

As has been pointed out by many others before me on this thread, that is lunacy. He couldn't hit his way out of a wet paper bag, and has proven it ad nauseum.

[paul253]

If by "people", you mean you & aka Pete, then yes you're right. But I would be very happy to add Cameron at a 1 yr./$10M deal

 

Glad to be lumped in with the rest of the anti Cameron people right away with my first post of the thread...thanks.

 

I am not going to go through 10 pages of material, but like I said, how is Cameron going to improve the offense? You cant bring everyone back and just hope the offense gets better. He is what he is....a low OBP, low contact, high strikeout hitter with good power and superb defense. But when the problem is low OBP, a lot of strikeouts and relying too much on the homerun ball, how exactly is bringing in a low OBP high strikeout power hitter going to fix things? Like i said, I havent read the majority of the thread, but we need to look at what he brings to the team, not the individual player he is. He'd be a lot more valuable on a team that needs power and someone to drive in runs. We dont need someone to hit homeruns, we need someone to get on base. I'm sorry, an OBP of .331 is not going to make things better. Plus, he is not worth $10 million. No way is he worth $10 million, even in todays game. I'm not anti Cameron. I just dont think he is the type of player our offense needs. I'm sorry if you disagree with me.

[Ennder]

Cameron isn't below average OBP though, he is roughly league average. If you want to 'fix' our OBP you trade Hall and Hart and you fix most of the problem.

 

There is absolutely no way Cameron isn't worth $10M on the free agent market. I can't find a single site that doesn't think he is worth at least 2.5 wins over replacement. The question isn't is he worth the money because without a doubt he is, the question is could we get as much value by spending the money on other needs.

[RobertR]

Who would have been playing CF or 3B last year if not for the signing of Cameron? Gwynn? Gross? Compared to the alternatives, there probably would be a lot of people that would have been happy with signing Cameron.

 

Robert