Cameron's option picked up (see reply #128)

[logan82]

We had one on our roster last year making $800K by the name of Gabe Kapler. Certainly not as good defensively, but much more rounded offensively.

 

By rounded I am guessing you mean strikes out less and has a lower SLG. Kapler is going to be 33 at the start of next year. I would rather take the chance Cameron doesn't regress much as opposed to a guy over 30 having a career year.

 

I have to say that it is a load off my mind that they picked up his option. I was really worried they wouldn't and I think it would have been a huge mistake.

[RobertR]

We couldn't get a CF as good as Cameron for $10M, we have no viable internal options, and trading for a CF would result in losing prospects and/or current members of the MLB club.

We had one on our roster last year making $800K by the name of Gabe Kapler. Certainly not as good defensively, but much more rounded offensively.

And Kapler hasn't demonstrated he can stay healthy for a full year. He really hasn't been a full time player since 2001. Durability matters. I'd rather not see the Brewers rely on Gwynn or whomever else they have to resort to if Kapler gets injured again.

 

Not to mention that he's a free agent.

 

Heck, there's good reason to think Kapler will regress and 2008 is not what you can expect going forward. Except for 2008, the last time he was even league average offensively was 2001. He's depth, not a starter.

 

Robert

[sveumrules]

We had one on our roster last year making $800K by the name of Gabe Kapler. Certainly not as good defensively, but much more rounded offensively.

kapler career | 2654ab | 273 |331 | 425

 

cameron career | 5896 ab | 250 | 340 | 448

 

so by more well rounded you mean he gets on base less and hits for less power with a couple extra singles sprinkled in? kapler also had a 335 babip last year, the highest of his career. he is a great fourth outfielder, but a below average everyday centerfielder.

 

edited weird formating.

[joepepsi]

This is good news. Since the Brewers were eliminated from the playoffs there's been a lot of talk around this board about wholesale changes. Tear it all apart, trade the best players on the team. You'd think the Brewers lost 90 games in 2008, instead of winning 90. You don't gut a team that won 90 games. You make quick decisions about reatining the players who made solid contributions, then you set about trying to find players who give you 5 more wins in 2009.

 

Cameron's $10 milion may seem a bit steep, but dumping him for "?" assures you now have to find a collection of players who not only will give you 5 more wins, but one or two that can make up for the wins Cameron provided. Cameron batting 6th or 7th and playing 140 games in CF is a good thing for 2009.

[crewcrazy]

Would Cameron be a bad RF'er? If Melvin was to find a deal for a lead-off CF'er that involves sending Hart on his way Cameron could slide to RF pretty easily IMO...

i'm pretty sure that is what he did when we he was with the mets and they got beltran.

Beltran was in center and Cameron was in right when they had their infamous face-first collision.

 

With Braun still learning the ropes a bit in LF and Hart's range not all that great, the best move is to keep Cameron in centerfield. He's more than capable of covering the extra ground, even if he is getting up there in years. Like Doug Melvin said in Haudricourt's blog, statistically Cameron was the 6th best centerfielder in baseball. Move him to right, and I'm not sure he cracks the top 10 or 15 (I say "not sure" because I can't seem to find the numbers -- I'd be curious to see them if anyone could point me in the right direction).

 

I like the move. Cameron has his flaws, but he still gives you above-average production from centerfield. If the Brewers declined his option, I don't think they would've been able to find a replacement that would have outproduced him. The $10 million salary might seem a little high, but the fact that the option was picked up after the Sabathia offer was made tells me that Mark A. is willing to operate in the red for a couple more years in order to keep this team competitive.

[owbc]

I can understand why people don't like Cameron, but Hall, Kapler, and Gwynn are on a completely different level. Cameron is league average at worst, while the other three are at or below replacement level.

 

I think the issue is that people are not differentiating between a center fielder and the corner outfield positions. Cameron's numbers were decent for CF, but would actually be bad/mediocre if he was in LF or RF. It's rare to find a player like Cameron who was at a 30+ HR pace, plays solid defense, and has a decent OBP. If you don't believe me, look at the free agent list and name a better option.

[ELCABALLO45]

I just need to say this...

 

 

CAM BOOGIE!!!

 

No brainer in my mind. Great Defense. Great Offense. Can't find a better option on the FA market thats for sure.

[bucksman4]

I guess I am sort of confused. Melvin went on a preamble the other day about how teams like the Brewers have to overhaul their rosters quite often because of the financial parameters they are under. Then he says they are too right-handed of a lineup offensively. And then he goes and picks up Cameron's option. Now what position will have that left-handed bat that he was looking for? In my mind, it comes down to one: 3B. Is he going to find a lefty bat to play 3B and make an impact? If so, what will he give up to do that? Escobar fans who want him at SS and Hardy at 3B complicates Melvin's thought process even more. Now LF, CF, RF, 3B, SS, 2B and C are right back to 2008's right-handed heavy lineup. I could see 3 players being the odd men out -- Hart, Hardy, Weeks. Hart and Hardy you will actually get a productive player back in return, Weeks will bring you back garbage. I'm waiting to see what Melvin does.

[1992casey]

Could someone post his ZiPS projection?

 

Cameron: .246/.333/.446... 475 AB ... 1 K / 3.6 AB

 

Kapler: .276/.327/.432 ... 192 AB ... 1 K / 6.0 AB

[Baldkin]

I'm glad he'll be untuckin' 'em for another year.

 

Seemed like a no brainer to me, hopefully the 'crew can bring back Skip Kapler as their 4th outfielder... or find a Gabe Gross-esque lefty to fill that role.

[And That]

Then he says they are too right-handed of a lineup offensively. And then he goes and picks up Cameron's option.

It all comes down to... would you rather have a right handed bat in CF, or would you rather try to find a left-handed replacement for one of the top 5-10 CF in the game, and at what cost? At $10 million, I don't think there was much of a choice for the Brewers.

[cracklins]

I would have resigned him anyways, but let's not also overlook the intangibles: great clubhouse guy, good role model for younger players, does work in the community, and very good friends with CC... if we have any chance for CC, it's b/c Cameron is with the team. With CC an official free agent now and Melvin's offer out there to him, I don't think it's coinicidence that Cameron is back with the team.

[PeaveyFury]

Then he says they are too right-handed of a lineup offensively. And then he goes and picks up Cameron's option. Now what position will have that left-handed bat that he was looking for?

 

What left-handed impact-bat CF'ers are actually available for the Brewers to get?

[RobertR]

Now LF, CF, RF, 3B, SS, 2B and C are right back to 2008's right-handed heavy lineup. I could see 3 players being the odd men out -- Hart, Hardy, Weeks. Hart and Hardy you will actually get a productive player back in return, Weeks will bring you back garbage. I'm waiting to see what Melvin does.

Cameron is certainly tradeable if that's what it comes down to.

 

And, although people make a lot out of it, it's not like the Brewers offense was bad all year. Especially considering they had an absolute sinkhole at third base. The struggles in September magnified the issues with the offense, but fix third base and get some internal improvement and the Brewers could have a top 4 offense in the NL with only minor moves. They could get some defensive improvement too out of third.

 

Also, I think that Weeks still has more value than people think. He's young and certainly has flashes of being a very good player. If he's out on the market, there will be multiple teams that will be more than willing to roll the dice that he'll put things together and live up to his potential.

 

Robert

[logan82]

I think the issue is that people are not differentiating between a center fielder and the corner outfield positions. Cameron's numbers were decent for CF, but would actually be bad/mediocre if he was in LF or RF.

 

Just this year of course, but average by position

 

LF .269/.344/.442/.786

CF .268/.334/.420/.753

RF .276/.347/.451/.798

Cameron .243/.331/.477/.809

 

It looks like his bat would be ok at any outfield position. Of course it makes him average instead of above average and negates his plus glove a bit.

 

Escobar fans who want him at SS and Hardy at 3B complicates Melvin's thought process even more.

 

I really hope he doesn't worry about what Escobar fans think. Besides, Escobar would make Kendall our 2nd worst hitter instead of our worst hitter. I don/t think his defense is worth that.

[RobertR]

FWIW, it's worth bringing up the CF free agent crop again.

 

Rocco Baldelli (27)

Willie Bloomquist (31)

Jim Edmonds (39)

Jerry Hairston Jr. (33)

Gabe Kapler (33)

Mark Kotsay (33)

Corey Patterson (29)

Scott Podsednik (33)

 

Other than Baldelli, who has health concerns, is there anyone that you'd want to roll the dice on as a full time starter? Hairston is more of a guy that can play CF when required than a full time CFer and last year was very out of context with the rest of his career. Even then, he didn't stay healthy.

 

Podsednik, Patterson, Kotsay, and Edmonds are the only lefties. Simply put, there is no lefty available via free agency that represents a likely upgrade for 2009 in CF. Really, the only potential lefty upgrade is Edmonds, but banking on a 40 year old is playing with fire.

 

Robert

[RyDogg66]

I dont understand the folks who are complaining about this move because Melvin made comments about adding a LH bat and some OBP to the line up. It makes no sense to let an above average offensive and defensive player go for one who is below average offensively/defensively simply because he might bat left handed.

 

I want someone to name one available player who is going to be better offensively and defensively that bats left handed and has a higher OBP. Just one. And to boot, this only costs us 10 million and for one year.

[pete]

Arguments I find unpersuasive:

 

 

 

People who are bothered by strikeouts ignore all else - I sure don't and he seems lost at the plate sometimes.

 

 

 

He's cheap for a free agent - so what? The team needs a couple starters, a 3d baseman and a reliever or two. If we get "bargains" at free agent, the payroll will be stretched by 10s of millions of dollars. It won't happen, so liking Cameron means liking Bill Hall at 3d or who knows as a starting pitcher and heaven help us all as the 6th or 7th starter during the year as an injury fill-in. Middle relievers and closer? Who knows. Second could be upgraded as well. Somebody has to be on the bench.

 

 

 

He's a gold glove caliber defender - No he's not. Above average to very good and even excellent in some aspects, but comparing him to Bill Hall learning the position isn't valuable or relevant.

 

 

 

He's better than anyone else we could get - probably, but he's getting 10 million, probably more than ten percent of the payroll. Irribarren and Gwynn are both playing CF in the Winter league and hitting well. I realize there is a fetish for home runs and a strange hatred for Gwynn that is unrelated to reality, but Gwynn plus 2/3s of the money for a guy like Lowe is better than Cam with whatever scrap heap pitcher ends up with the Brewers that the same people will complain about. You can substitute numerous combinations but signing Cam means not signing someone else.

[yoshii8]

He's better than anyone else we could get - probably, but he's getting 10 million, probably more than ten percent of the payroll. Irribarren and Gwynn are both playing CF in the Winter league and hitting well. I realize there is a fetish for home runs and a strange hatred for Gwynn that is unrelated to reality, but Gwynn plus 2/3s of the money for a guy like Lowe is better than Cam with whatever scrap heap pitcher ends up with the Brewers that the same people will complain about. You can substitute numerous combinations but signing Cam means not signing someone else.

I don't think its as much about a hatred for Gwynn, as much as it is not wanting a starting CF who had a .659 OPS in his 3rd season in AAA. Whats strange to me is how so many people don't understand why he isn't being considered as our starting CF.

[RyDogg66]

Pete, what we need to do is measure many things. One is the value of Cameron defensively and offensively relative to who would likely replace him. If that someone is Tony Gwynn/Bill Hall combo, what would that look like in wins? Comparing him to Hall defensively is relevant if Hall is who replaces him.

 

Second, that money that we "saved" is saved for one year, if we sign a Derek Lowe, we are looking at 15 million (at least) over 4 years (at least). So letting Cam go isnt getting us Lowe,because the problem isnt paying a pitcher in 2009, it is paying him in 2010-2012.

[TooLiveBrew]

I sure don't and he seems lost at the plate sometimes.

 

Every big-league hitter does. Problem with your point here is that Cam is still a well-above average hitter.

[RobertR]

He's cheap for a free agent - so what? The team needs a couple starters, a 3d baseman and a reliever or two. If we get "bargains" at free agent, the payroll will be stretched by 10s of millions of dollars....

 

Irribarren and Gwynn are both playing CF in the Winter league and hitting well....

What FA CFer is going to be a "bargain"? Almost all of the FA CFers are capable of being below replacement level or are injury risks. (Heck, I really don't think you should count Bloomquist or Hairston as CFers.) The Brewers probably have to sign one regardless, my guess is Kotsay.

 

Also, what's strange about not wanting to hand a starting job of a contending team to a player with absolutely no power, a major league line of .248/.300/.298, a 2008 AAA line of .275/.328/.331, and a 2009 ZIPS projection of .257/.313/.314? (Hernan Iribarren's ZIPS projection is .254/.298/.318 BTW.) If you have any belief at all in statistical projection, those are huge red flags. It's not that Gwynn doesn't hit home runs that's the problem, it's that he's unlikely to hit at all that's the problem.

 

Robert

[DuWayne Steurer]

Mike Cameron hates puppies.

 

 

If Tony Gwynn is our starter in CF for more than a handful of games, I'm rooting for a different team. He's fast and left handed. Aside from that he offers nothing of any value at all.

[rluzinski]

Yeh, it's really hard how to comprehend that people think Gwynn can't hit. We must be too busy looking at his numbers to fully appreciate his hitting prowess. Reality indeed.

 

And I don't care how you, me or anyone else think Cameron's ABs looked like last year. I care about recent production and what it tells us about future expected production. How many runs is Cameron's projected production expected to score for his team?

 

Part of the problem is that even some die hard baseball fans still don't know how to properly way the offensive value of various batting events. If you look at how many runs every MLB team has scored per inning over the last 10+ years and how they scored them, you learn 2 things:

 

1. A walk is worth (in terms of runs) about 2/3rds of a single

 

2. On average, a strikeout is roughly worth (in terms of negative runs) the same as a ball-in-play out (about 100 Ks = 1 run).

 

If you dispute those 2 facts than you will incorrectly judge the offensive value of players like Cameron.

[pete]

Yeh, it's really hard how to comprehend that people think Gwynn can't hit. We must be too busy looking at his numbers to fully appreciate his hitting prowess. Reality indeed.

 

People find numbers to support their arguments.

 

I have no idea why you gave the estimates for value of strikeouts and walks that are used in estimates of player value. Last I checked, strikeouts were awfully close to being a guaranteed out. And if you're talking about Cam's projected runs which is a crapshoot estimate anyway, you should talk about the loss of runs from not spending the money elsewhere.

 

Tony Gwynn .339/.391/.403 in VWL play. Hernan Iribarren .362/.433/.586.