Cameron's option picked up (see reply #128)

[1992casey]

Since the off-season discussion has taken off to the tune of 124 replies, I've split the discussion regarding whether to pick up Mike's option into a thread of its own.

 

Here's the Cameron signing thread referred to in the lead (now locked): Brewers sign Mike Cameron (1yr/$6.22 mil + 2009 Team Option).

[MillerParkSouth]

Today is the day, am I right? If my math is correct, we have through today to pick up the option. In my mind, it's a no-brainer. $10mm for a power hitting CF with gold glove D is pretty solid. Even if we dont' want him, i'm sure we can trade him too. Makes me a little nervous that Melvin hasn't already pulled the trigger, however.

[KCBrewerfan34]

I say we pass. Enough of paying mediocre guys $10 million a year, can't you find average guys for 3-5 million?? and yes today is the day to pick up the option.

 

GO BREW

[JJHardy7]

I don't know if this is posted somewhere else here, but the Brewers picked up the option:

 

http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/sports/33749649.html

[trwi7]

Good news.

[Tailgat0r76]

I'm definitely glad we picked up the option. We got a great fielding, veteran, power hitting CF for 9.25 million virtually when you consider the buyout price we would have had to pay.

[bklynbrewcrew]

Definitely the right move. One yr for 10 million is defintely a good situation for the Brewers. Its nice to have at least one gold glove caliber player on the team.

[Patrick425]

I realize that Cameron would probably go for more in the FA market (which to me, points to the ludicrousy of player contracts in baseball). However, to me it seems the money could have been better spent. I know all the Money Ball stats guys just love this guy, but I thought OBP was a big stat for those guys. Cameron does not have a very good OBP and is not getting any younger.

 

Although, is there something to CC being a big Cameron fan and this possibly being done to persuade CC to stay with the Brewers? If this helps that cause at all, then I'm all for it.

[trwi7]

Cameron does not have a very good OBP and is not getting any younger.

Not many players have a "very good" OBP. Cameron is right around the average and has been for several years.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs/1070_OF_season_full_1_20080930.png

 

[JohnBriggs12]

The worst move of Melvin's tenure. Makes me angry that Melvin got his contract extended. He says one thing (we need more lineup balance, more contact, higher OB) and then he goes out and spends $10 million on the exact opposite. Everyone screams about Bill Hall's contract. I'd rather have Hall in CF. At least he's young enough to bounce back offensively and moving him back there opens up another spot for a lefthanded bat.

 

Cameron is clearly on downside. He can't make contact. He's living off his reputation rather than performance defensively. He's righthanded in a lineup full of righthanded contact challenged hitters.

 

With today's roster (minus CC and Sheets), it's a 75 win team, tops.

[owbc]

Bill Hall is my favorite player, but he was brutal in center field.

 

I'm in favor of picking up this option. We're not resigning CC and most likely not Sheets either, so we may as well use the money on players who will contribute. Cameron didn't have a great year and he's nothing exceptional, but he's way better than any of the possible replacement options.

[Ennder]

The worst move of Melvin's tenure. Makes me angry that Melvin got his contract extended.

 

With today's roster (minus CC and Sheets), it's a 75 win team, tops.

Was this supposed to be in blue? Cameron was one of the most productive players on the team last year and easily earned more than what he was payed in fact many outside sources consider him one of the best FA deals of 2007. Cameron brings above average defense(no it isn't just reputation), average OBP and above average SLG at a position where we really have no other viable options at. (Hall was terrible in CF and had negative value, Hart's defense isn't good enough for CF).

 

At $10M and another year older he might end up only being a break even player so I could go either way on the option but I think your player evaluation methods are all messed up if you think this deal is worse than Hall's. Hall has been one of the worst players in baseball over the past 2 seasons. The more games Hall plays the worse the team is pretty much.

 

Last year people thought we were an 85-90 win team going into the season and the only player we have lost is Sheets and now we are 75 wins tops? Tough crowd.

[splitterpfj]

This seemed like an easy choice to me. Yes, Cameron is another high strikeout, right-handed bat, but he helped this team for certain.

 

Before anyone rushes to judgment on the OBP issue....is it not possible that the team found no center field options that fit this description?

 

Who's to say a move won't be made to address this issue at another position?

[RyDogg66]

The worst move of Melvin's tenure....

 

Cameron is clearly on downside. He can't make contact. He's living off his reputation rather than performance defensively. He's righthanded in a lineup full of righthanded contact challenged hitters.

 

With today's roster (minus CC and Sheets), it's a 75 win team, tops.

What are you using to make this argument? Going from Cameron to Hall in CF is a huge downgrade in offense and defense. Cameron was one of our best offensive players last year and one of the few players that plays above average defense. We have Cam for 1 year, which really limits the risk and his OBP, as shown above, has been consistently league average for a very long time. Wouldnt replacing Hall/Counsell at 3b with a LH bat with a high OBP be a better move than moving a poor fielding CF with a poor OBP into center?

 

You first and last sentences really cut into your credibility on this board - at least for me.

[Hammer]

Would Cameron be a bad RF'er? If Melvin was to find a deal for a lead-off CF'er that involves sending Hart on his way Cameron could slide to RF pretty easily IMO...

[Ennder]

The reason we missed the playoffs in 2006 more than anything else was the defense of Weeks at 2B, Fielder at 1B, Hall in CF and Braun at 3B. Those four defensively cost us about 5-7 wins over average defensive players. Bringing in Cameron last year was a 1-3 win offensive move over who he replaced, it was a 1-2 win defensive move over Hall, it was a 2-3 win defensive move pushing Braun out to LF. That one move alone accounted for roughly 3-8 wins on the season which means it probably had about as much and maybe even more to do with making the playoffs as trading for Sabathia did.

 

Moving Hall to CF and dumping Cameron is probably a 3-4 win reduction and kills any chance we have at the playoffs unless we find a 3-4 win upgrade over Hall at 3B for $10M or under. Not sure that player exists. I am glad Melvin is smart enough to not go that route.

[1992casey]

Cameron has played RF before. I seem to recall him saying that he wasn't really comfortable there. I don't know how stats might back that up, though.

[Weirdos19]

I have a feeling Hall or Weeks is as good as gone. Maybe both.

 

I think this roster is going to look alot different next year.

 

Longshot prediction: Hardy, Escobar, Brian Roberts, and Prince is our infield with the outfield staying the same.

[sveumrules]

Would Cameron be a bad RF'er? If Melvin was to find a deal for a lead-off CF'er that involves sending Hart on his way Cameron could slide to RF pretty easily IMO...

i'm pretty sure that is what he did when we he was with the mets and they got beltran.

[Ennder]

Cameron has 139 games played in RF in his career with no more than 68 of them in any given season.

 

Longshot prediction: Hardy, Escobar, Brian Roberts, and Prince is our infield with the outfield staying the same

 

I sure hope you are wrong, Escobar has no business above AAA in 2009 and Hardy loses a ton of his value at 3B. I'm not sure that IF is better than the one we have no to be honest. Best bet is we dump Hall into a utility role and find a real 3B.

[JohnBriggs12]

Bill Hall is my favorite player, but he was brutal in center field.

 

I'm in favor of picking up this option. We're not resigning CC and most likely not Sheets either, so we may as well use the money on players who will contribute. Cameron didn't have a great year and he's nothing exceptional, but he's way better than any of the possible replacement options.

Hall was brutal in the first half, primarily April when he made 4 errors. He made one error after the All Star break that year and none after July 27th. He wasn't great but he was progressing at such a quantifiable and visual rate that had they kept him there, it was certainly within reason to expect him to be at minimum an average defensive CF in 2008.

[fondybrewfan]

This seemed like a no brainer move if their ever was one. We couldn't get a CF as good as Cameron for $10M, we have no viable internal options, and trading for a CF would result in losing prospects and/or current members of the MLB club. Hopefully by 2010 Lorenzo Cain develops enough to take CF going forward.

[JohnBriggs12]

This seemed like a no brainer move if their ever was one. We couldn't get a CF as good as Cameron for $10M, we have no viable internal options, and trading for a CF would result in losing prospects and/or current members of the MLB club. Hopefully by 2010 Lorenzo Cain develops enough to take CF going forward.

We had one on our roster last year making $800K by the name of Gabe Kapler. Certainly not as good defensively, but much more rounded offensively.

[Ennder]

Hall was brutal in the first half, primarily April when he made 4 errors. He made one error after the All Star break that year and none after July 27th. He wasn't great but he was progressing at a quantifiable rate.

 

But he is below average offensively even for a CF, is even lower OBP than cameron, still is RH with very few LH 3B out there and while he may have progressed from one of the worst fielding CF in baseball to merely bad there is no gaurentee he does better than that. Hall would be a huge downgrade from Cameron in CF, easily in the 3-4 win range. The only way it makes a little bit of sense is if we spend big on a 3B and can get 3-4 wins out of that position.

 

Sorry but I just don't understand where you are coming from here. You dont' like Cameron because he strikes out a lot and is RH with average OBP. So you want to replace him with someone who strikes out even more, has a lower OBP and is still RH and is bad defensively on top of it. You are going to lose more games with that recipe than you can possibly make up with $10M at another position. Hall needs to be sitting on the bench as a backup or off the team at this point. If he absolutely has to play it has to be at a postion where he is above average to make up for his hitting.

[rluzinski]

JB decided before the all star break that Cameron was bad, so he'll not be changing his mind anytime soon. Worst Melvin move ever? A league average player is worth about $9 mil on the open market, so it's hard to get all worked up about this. Well, unless it's gotten personal for whatever reason.

 

Cameron proabably isn't a gold glove caliber CFer anymore but all fielding metrics seem to suggest that he's still in the top third. Could someone post his ZiPS projection? It probably is something like .330/.440? Pretty average for a CF.

 

Average offense + above average defense for $10 mil? Very good.