Cameron's option picked up (see reply #128)

[yoyo49]

http://www.baseballameric...ftdb/2008xrnd.php?rnd=3.5

 

what is the supplemental round after the 3rd round? sorry, i know this isn't a thread on draft picks and compensation, but i can't find this information anywhere. i know the compensation for Type A and Type B players is between the 1st and 2nd rounds, but what are the picks between rounds 3 and 4 for?

[RobertR]

I'd think at this point you pick up Cameron's contract regardless whether you want to keep him or not. If the Brewers want to contend for the post-season next year, and everything I'm reading says that they do, then trading Cameron and getting someone that can help in 2009 is certainly preferable than picking up a supplementary draft pick. The Yankees reportedly have some interest and they have some young starters and/or Cano that I'd be interested in.

 

I'm just about ready to give Weeks a try out in CF if Cameron is moved. Most of the metrics indicate that he's improved defensively, but he certainly looks like he's made no progress on the pivot. There's at least the potential to not lose anything offensively.

 

I hardly think Cameron coming back is a bad choice either. He'll provide good defense, hit for some power with adequate on-base skills, strike out quite a bit, and earn his pay.

 

Robert

[kramnoj]

Let's remember that the Yankees withdrew from Johan Santana because they didn't want to give up prospects. I think that the Yankees are interested in Cameron because he would be a free agent and he wouldn't cost the Yankees a pick. I don't think the Yankees would be as interested in Cameron if they had to give up much value to get him.

[nate82]

Let's remember that the Yankees withdrew from Johan Santana because they didn't want to give up prospects. I think that the Yankees are interested in Cameron because he would be a free agent and he wouldn't cost the Yankees a pick. I don't think the Yankees would be as interested in Cameron if they had to give up much value to get him.

Giving up Kennedy and Gardner which is what it would probably take is not giving up much value to get Cameron. Especially with Cameron only making $10 million in 2009.

 

Kennedy is a future #4 pitcher he reminds me a lot like Dave Bush and Gardner is Gwynn Jr. I don't see the Yankees giving up on Cabrera but Kennedy is possible.

[endaround]

Many times if you decline an option the team has to release the player without offering arbitration.

[kramnoj]

I wouldn't give up a young #4 starter for one year of a 36 year old CF. The Yankees might, if they get desperate enough.

[MNBrew]

Quoth TH: "If the Brewers don't exercise that option, they would have to find another center fielder because they have shown no inclination to give Tony Gwynn Jr. a shot at that job. But Cameron is one of many right-handed, strikeout-prone hitters on the team and GM Doug Melvin said the other day that he needs to inject some left-handed, on-base types into the lineup for 2009."

 

Let's look at this:

 

1. Some folks are tearing up and outright dissing the last sentence of this quote. Relative to other CFs, Cameron has plenty of value. Other than maybe Grady Sizemore and a few other top-end guys, Cameron's at least a solid if not above-average alternative. Even at $10M, he's still reasonably priced for the whole package he brings.

 

2. Others who are equally intelligent but tend to place value differently than the average BF.net poster are relieved that Melvin at least sees the same problem we all do and publicly acknowledges the direction where the solution lies. Ultimately there is a problem here. Hall's a huge culprit. Weeks is to a slightly lesser extent thanks to his OBP but still has large, frustrating holes in his game; but due to his overall promise the Brewers also don't seem likely to discard/move him just yet, either. Given the picture as painted, Cameron's the other primary culprit, not to mention the most expensive. The Brewers, most would agree, need to have some decent money available to address well-demonstrated needs.

 

Like it or not, neither side is totally wrong and no solution is without its drawbacks. The thing we're all waiting for is for the Brewers to make their decision on Cameron's option. That'll end a good deal of the debate. Melvin's right on the nature of the problem and where the solution lies. What remains to be seen is simply how they'll choose to address the problem -- and eventually something's going to have to give in order to do so.

[RobertR]

The thing we're all waiting for is for the Brewers to make their decision on Cameron's option. That'll end a good deal of the debate. Melvin's right on the nature of the problem and where the solution lies. What remains to be seen is simply how they'll choose to address the problem -- and eventually something's going to have to give in order to do so.

 

I'm not so sure that the Brewers' decision will clear up all that much. Cameron's pretty clearly still a decent value at his current contract price and might be attractive trade bait even if the Brewers want to explore other options. Heck, one of the most attractive things about Cameron is that there's only one year left on his deal while he'd certainly be seeking a multi-year deal on the free agent market. And the free agent market this year is reportedly weak. Holding on to Cameron, even if only temporarily, is probably the smartest choice.

 

Heck, if the Brewers tried to extract value for Johnny Estrada and Claudio Vargas, why wouldn't they try to get something in return for a good player?

 

Robert

[kramnoj]

Heck, if the Brewers tried to extract value for Johnny Estrada and Claudio Vargas, why wouldn't they try to get something in return for a good player?

 

One significant difference would be that Cameron will make about 3 times as much. I think it would be a gamble to eat up about 9% of the expected payroll with the assumption that a player will be traded. Melvin made the gamble with Vargas and it cost the Brewers significant money.

[dadofandrew]

I agree, if they do not want Cameron back, they don't pick up the option. Dejesus is available at far less money, Crisp is too, and let's face it, supposedly only NYY and MIL called him last year. Teams that like him may not be able to afford him, and vice versa.

[BrewCrewForever]

DeJesus is my choice for CF in 2009. I want Doug to get that deal done somehow.

[And That]

DeJesus is signed cheaply through 2011, which is good for the payroll, but expensive in the acquisition cost. He would be a good guy to get, however IMO not enough of an upgrade from Cameron in the OBP department (and salary savings) to warrant what we'd have to give up to get him. Unless the Royals want to get rid of him for some reason, I don't know why they would be "motivated" to trade him.

 

Mike Cameron isn't a problem on this club, just similar to other players. The rotation, third base and the bullpen need to be addressed before we start tinkering with center fielders.

[jjfanec]

I agree that CF is not the top of the list of things that need to change but if we can get a guy like DeJesus or Crisp we will save a money that can be used on the bullpen, rotation or 3B. Those two guys would be locked up longer so we don't have to go through this again. DeJesus and Crisp can both hit left handed and had a higher OBP than Cameron last season. Both guys would meet some of the things that Melvin wants to address for next season. Left-handed bat with better OBP.

[And That]

It should also be noted that DeJesus would mark a bit of a dropoff defensively from Cameron - on a team that already struggles on defense, I'm not sure you want to get rid of maybe your best guy. If Cameron's salary makes a difference in the ability of the club, then you look at other alternatives. Save that, you have a good center fielder under contract for this coming year.

[fleehaw]

One significant difference would be that Cameron will make about 3 times as much. I think it would be a gamble to eat up about 9% of the expected payroll with the assumption that a player will be traded.

Not to nitpick, but I can say with almost certainty that the Brewers won't have a $111M payroll in '09. (10M/.09=111.111M)

 

He'd most likely account for between 11-12.5% of the payroll. 9% is just a strange number to pull out of nowhere, why not just say about 10%?

[fleehaw]

It should also be noted that DeJesus would mark a bit of a dropoff defensively from Cameron - on a team that already struggles on defense, I'm not sure you want to get rid of maybe your best guy. If Cameron's salary makes a difference in the ability of the club, then you look at other alternatives. Save that, you have a good center fielder under contract for this coming year.

AT, what would you think of a DeJesus for Hart deal? Both are under team control for 3 more years with DeJesus locked at a better rate while Hart is arguably a better player. I assume that DeJesus can play defense in RF as well as Hart, Cameron in CF, and Braun in LF. Solves the 'problem' of a leadoff guy and adding more lefties to the lineup. It also adds flexibility. I'd imagine that DeJesus is superior to Hart in CF. If you let Cameron walk after '09 (he might be worth offering arbitration to), you'll have the option of filling either RF or CF along with having possibilities in the minors (Cain & Gilespie) as opposed to be looking for just a CF.

[logan82]

Ennder wrote:

The strikeout graph basically looks like a plot of random data. Someone linked a chart showing correlation of a bunch of advanced metrics and OPS came out pretty decently in them. Things like eqa and 1.8*obp+slg did even better. Improving OBP is the easiest way to improve our runs scored probably but just cutting down on strike outs has only a little bit to do with OBP.

The graphs looked better in Excel, but didn't transfer when uploaded to Google Docs. I added a trendline for each graph and the line moved closer to the ideal line as I went from K>BB>HR>BA>OBP>SLG>OPS. The line on the K graph was almost flat and the line on the OPS was almost identical to the ideal line.

 

I remember the post you are talking about. It was somebody talking about how SLG had a higher correlation to runs scoread and was therfore more valuable than OBP.(they didn't like people weighting OBP almost twice as much as SLG) OPS came in around a 96% correlation I think with SLG and OBP around 92% then a drop to 86% for BA.

 

Sorry to go off topic. I think we should resign Cameron. TLB had a good post in the "What should we do with our outfield next year?" thread that broke down all the top CFers and what they were making. $10M turns out to be a pretty good deal. I will look it up when I get a chance unless somebody beats me to it.

[kramnoj]

He'd most likely account for between 11-12.5% of the payroll. 9% is just a strange number to pull out of nowhere, why not just say about 10%?

 

There's a reason Bob and Brian are afraid of doing math on the air. I knew it wouldn't be 10%. I quickly did the math in my head and thought it would be 11% but because 11 is bigger than 10 I was thinking someone would call me for exaggerating, so I reversed the numbers without actually taking the time to calculate. My mind is a dark and scary place. I wouldnt' recommend further ventures there.

[Ennder]

For what it is worth here is what ZiPs thinks of him for next year.

 

.246/.333/.446/.779

[TooLiveBrew]

Resting Cam more against RHP should help keep his numbers up a bit. I'm really starting to hope Melvin & the Brewers find a way to try Weeks in CF. Like Braun to LF, I think CF fits Rickie's skills a bit better than 2B. If the team commits to moving Weeks to CF, I would want to see the Brewers pick up Cam's option & deal him somewhere. To me that would be worth a shot in '09.

[And That]

AT, what would you think of a DeJesus for Hart deal?

I think this depends on how much you absolutely need OBP. Hart is a better defender, and has more power. DeJesus' OBP is better, but that is the only advantage he has over Corey. I would not trade Hart for DeJesus at the moment, because I think OBP will improve next season as a natural progression (especially with Hart). I also think we're going to get a third baseman who has a good OBP.

 

In theory, over the long term, I see your point. But as I've said, we have a really good CF under contract for '09. Why muck around with that unless you improve the position dramatically over the long term? I mean, Cain might even be ready by '10 and if not, DeJesus has one less year on his contract, which makes him cheaper.

[endaround]

I guess I just don't get this. The Brewers have the money, the FA class stinks, and they really don't have the resources to make a trade without pretty much giving up on getting a pitcher or 3B via trade.

[ILuvDaBush]

I guess we've just been too spoiled by the defensive wizardry of Scotty Po, Brady Clark, and Alex Sanchez to truly appreciate the intrinsic beauty of Mike Cameron's defense between a converted first baseman and the worst defensive third baseman in a hundred years.

[RobertR]

I guess I just don't get this. The Brewers have the money, the FA class stinks, and they really don't have the resources to make a trade without pretty much giving up on getting a pitcher or 3B via trade.

The lousy FA class is the principle reason why I think it's not a good idea to decline the option. Cameron's arguably worth the contract. At this point, I don't see how you can get better value with that money, particularly since you'll likely have to sign anyone decent to a multi-year deal, whether at P, 2B, or 3B. To me it's a no brainer, pick up the option, try to do something about 3B, add some depth.

 

Heck, it's not like Cameron was even the biggest offender in the OBP issues surrounding the team. You're likely to get, at best, marginal improvement there.

 

Robert

[MillerParkSouth]

Even if you don't want Cameron on the team next year, there is absolutely no reason NOT to pick up the option. Like people have mentioned, the FA class is not very good at that position. A 30 hr, gold glove caliber CF could fetch a good return via trade. That said, I really want him to come back. He was probably the 4th best position player on the team last year behind Braun, Hardy and maybe Prince. When you consider the alternatives, it's a no brainer to bring him back.