Brewers claim 3B Casey McGehee from Cubs, DFA Crazy Joe Dillon / Latest: Dillon claimed by Oakland (reply 45ish)

[Brawndo the Thirst Mutilat]

I know I've questioned ZiPs before when you brought them up, and I don't try to belabor points, but how do they project that someone at 33 is going to gain 99 points of OPS, both from his actual production and from their 2008 projection?

 

ZiPS 2008 projection for Dillon was 280 / 338 / 449, so his crappy actual 2008 (aside from a nice walk rate) actually did a lot of damage to how highly ZiPS thinks of him. IIRC, that 280 / 338 / 449 line was the lowest of any of the notable projection systems, so ZiPS wasn't that high on him to begin with...now it's even less high on him...and it STILL thinks he's close to an average major league hitter.

 

As for how they can project a gain from his 2008 numbers; he only had 90 MLB PA and 206 AAA PA in 2008. That's not anywhere near enough to tell us that his hitting skills have meaningfully declined, so what you'll see from projection systems is that the mass of data from 2004 through 2007 that says that he's an excellent hitter is balanced against the more recent info (which is more heavily weighted pound for pound but which is a lot smaller sample). It's not so much that the system "projects improvement" as it is that it is built to be sensibly skeptical about sample error in small samples of data -- something it often seems baseball fans and even scouts and management types are constitutionally incapable of doing.

 

It's hard for me to see any sort of rational basis for doing a projection any other way.

[JJHardy7]

As for how they can project a gain from his 2008 numbers; he only had 90 MLB PA and 206 AAA PA in 2008. That's not anywhere near enough to tell us that his hitting skills have meaningfully declined, so what you'll see from projection systems is that the mass of data from 2004 through 2007 that says that he's an excellent hitter is balanced against the more recent info (which is more heavily weighted pound for pound but which is a lot smaller sample).

 

I guess the thing I'm confused about is how we state that his PA's were not enough last year, but we still rely on some projections even though he's had a very small sample size in MLB. Don't the two go hand and hand? Dillon played quite a bit in Nashville and I've met him, etc. and I do wish him the best. I just don't think basing projections on limited MLB at-bats is a good idea. I also think he's becoming very limited playing multiple positions as he ages. I love Dillon, but I think the Brewers are thinking he's limited in terms of where he can play defensively.

[brewmann04]

could we see the 2009 platoon along with Gamel?

[Yeti73]

eh...i couldn't care less about this. McGahee will probably appear in 20 games as a Brewer. I'm not sad to see Dillon go. He was a little overrated in my mind. His one plus was his good eye and that seemed to be gone when he reappeared this year in September. I really am going to miss baseball for the next few months.

[valpocrewsader]

batting .160 (9 for 24)

A minor point, but that ain't right. .160 was the OBP. 4 hits, not 9, in 24 at bats for a .167 BA. I'm assuming the 9 came from the number of games he played in.

[MNBrew]

Probably not a bad pickup considering Mike Lamb is a goner (not a bad thing) and Bill Hall's roster spot needs to turn into a useful reliever via a Melvin trade. I loved what Joe Dillon did in '07 and he still had a decent OBP in the bigs in '08 until his September callup, when Yost let him bat 1-2x/wk. Dillon's not likely valued highly enough to take up a 40-man spot with anyone, so hopefully Melvin's convincing him that it'd be worth signing that AAA contract with an NRI with the Brewers, where they do value his positives and know him well enough, instead of with any other team.

[LouisEly]

McGehee is definitely a low ceiling guy, but he has some solid tools. As noted already, his defense is a big plus at third base, and he can catch.

 

Couldn't you take that same exact sentence a few years ago and replace "McGehee" with "Chris Coste"? Coste has gone on to have quite a nice little career as a fairly important role player with the Phillies. If this guy can turn into the next Chris Coste (and six years younger than when the Phillies picked up Coste) it could turn into another nice little nugget that Melvin found.

 

As for Joe... I really like you as a player and I think you deserve an opportunity somewhere, but there is no opportunity here for you. Hopefully Jack Z. can find a place for you on the Mariner's 25-man roster. Best of luck, and may you have a John Jaha/Bucky Jacobsen career year somewhere. (Anywhere except the north side of Chicago.)

[lukevan]

*cry

 

I guess the Brewers didn't believe Dillon fit anywhere defensively, because his bat sure as heck is good enough to be on a major league team. Joe will re-surface somewhere next year as a PH.

 

I guess I should probably retire my avatar now.

[JoeHova]

I don't like this move if there is any idea this guy will be on the ML team next year. A .774 OPS for a ML 3rd baseman is nothing special and that's what he had in his best minor league season, which was his 3rd go-round at AAA. I don't see why he would be expected to become the next Chris Coste.

 

 

 

Also, this better not affect the likelihood of either resigning Branyan or bringing in a long-term 3rd baseman.

[DannyKmilw]

The fact that McGehee catches is a plus and might get him a shot, but I hope that Adam Heether gets his shot at Crazy Joe's spot before McGehee.

Heether put up better numbers then McGehee and can play any infield position and has played some outfield.

 

Heether = Dillon (with less pop but better D)

[JohnBriggs12]

I just don't get all the negativity about this move. McGehee moved up the Cub minor league chain quickly. He started at age 20 in full season A ball, spent one year there, moved up to high A at 21, spent one year there, was at AA at 22 where hit he a solid .297/.354/.422. A 22 year old putting up those numbers at AA are usually on top 10 or 15 prospect lists.

 

He's spent 3 years at AAA, because (hello!), the Cubs had Aramis Ramirez blocking him. They had a very good team at Iowa this season (83-59) and McGehee was a big contributor.

 

It's true Heether had a nice year at AAA too, but when he was 24, he was hitting under .220 between single A and AA. Who knows, maybe Melvin is planning on using Heether in a deal.

[endaround]

No a .297/.354/.422 line at AA as a 22 year old isn't a top prospect, its just a guy. He's spent three years at AAA because he hasn't been able to hit.

[Fear The Chorizo]

The only spots Joe Dillon doesn't completely kill a team defensively are 3rd and 1st, and he doesn't have nearly enough pop to play either of those positions regularly. He does put together good ABs and can be an effective pinch hit option, but I don't think he's as valuable a player as some people on this board apparently feel he is. As a major leaguer, he's not worth the price it would take to keep him around.

Not that I love the acquisition of McGehee, but at least he's much younger, cheaper, and at worst can add some depth to the high minor league system.

Similar acquisitions of players by Melvin have turned out to be pretty solid moves, so I'm going to give him the benefit of the doubt - Joe Dillon reminds me of Keith Ginter, which has turned out to be a criticism, not a compliment. Dillon could very well end up back in the Brewer organization after all this anyway - I'm not sure I see teams jumping to sign him to a major league deal.

[joepepsi]

He's the next Wes Helms!

[hawing]

He's the next Wes Helms!

So his bat will eventually have enough pop to help the Brewers get into the playoffs late in some future season? http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

 

Also, I love that I can Google "Crazy Joe Dillon" and 66.6% of the results lead me straight to Brewerfan. (The other 33.3% leads indirectly to Brewerfan, as it is a comment on another blog made by one of our posters.) If that's not a legacy, I don't know what is.

[Brawndo the Thirst Mutilat]

I guess the thing I'm confused about is how we state that his PA's were not enough last year, but we still rely on some projections even though he's had a very small sample size in MLB. Don't the two go hand and hand? Dillon played quite a bit in Nashville and I've met him, etc. and I do wish him the best. I just don't think basing projections on limited MLB at-bats is a good idea. I also think he's becoming very limited playing multiple positions as he ages. I love Dillon, but I think the Brewers are thinking he's limited in terms of where he can play defensively.

You've answered your own question when you said "Dillon played quite a bit in Nashville." The better projection systems like ZiPS use MLEs for minor league stats and then treat them as substitutes for MLB stats where those are lacking -- so what's been really driving Dillon's projections are his 983 PA in AA and AAA between 2004 and 2007, during which his OPS was over 1000 every year ( MLE OPSes in the mid 800s). Properly adjusted for difficulty of league and park factor, AA and AAA stats are virtually identical to actual major league stats in their predictive power for future MLB performance. We have plenty of information to rely on, we just have to recognize that we can quantify the difference between the upper minor leagues and the major leagues.

 

I understand the concerns about Dillon's defensive limitations, but I think that the org is underestimating Dillon as a hitter, and I think it is likely that the manner of thinking in which they are underestimating him would go something like "well, we can't bring him back as a PH, we tried to give him that job in '08 and he stank." Baseball men believe in the existence of "professional pinch hitters" who are able to "handle the pressures and difficulties of hitting without getting regular playing time" and, as a consequence, they are often wont to give the last spot on the bench to "Lenny Harris."

[endaround]

I think you might reading too much into this. My guess is they feel no one will pick Dillon up to keep on the 40 man and that he'd welcome a chance at a minor league deal. Now they could be wrong and someone will give him more than an NRI this srping but its likely not something to worry too much about. Keep in mind the Brewers were the only ones to really contact Branyan and he has actually destroyed major league pitching.

[MNBrew]

McGehee wore #27 in Chicago. Maybe that's why Dillon's gone.

 

I don't understand FTC's comment about how McGehee's much cheaper than Dillon. Dillon would be lucky to be making $500K in the bigs. $100K, while a ton of jing to most of us, is chump change on a major league team's payroll.

 

I also don't understand the revisionist history that Dillon's now suddenly pretty much worthless (there's no actual way to know -- KNOW, I'm not talking about projecting, but actually knowing -- yet if the .213 or whatever this year is all he's capable of now, or maybe somewhere between that and his '07 numbers). You need role players, and not all of them are going to be Gold Glovers or have 20+ HR power. Dillon was intended to be a poor man's Jeff Cirillo with a little lesser glove but more versatility. He never had lots of pop, and guys like him who take a good approach at the plate and don't generally hurt you (which rules out Craig Counsell's negative offense) belong in the bigs, too. Did Cirillo's lack of power make him a worthless addition to the Brewers' roster in '05 & '06? Hardly. You need smart hitters, too, and Dillon has shown he has it in him. The bigger question is if that's now all behind him or if there's some of it left. And it's not as though it would cost any team big bucks to find out, just a roster spot Dillon would inevitably still have to earn.

 

I don't mean to suggest Dillon's the next Gabe Kapler (or '07 Joe Dillon) waiting to happen again. But his success is recent enough not to merit at least a little consideration. In other words, I'm just hoping his '09 AAA deal w/ NRI is with the Brewers rather than another team. If he's not good enough to make the team, then the Crew is that much farther ahead than last year in their bench depth.

[JJHardy7]

You've answered your own question when you said "Dillon played quite a bit in Nashville."

 

Dillon's had plenty of at bats in the minors. I just think since he did well in Nashville that means he's going to continue do perform well in the bigs given his age. If Dillon was 26, I'd put more weight into those projections. I really like Joe a lot and hope he comes back. I'm just not 100% sure his skills aren't declining given his age.

[Tbadder]

Crazy Casey McGehee--my favorite Brewer!

[1992casey]

Per Tom Haudricourt, Dillon was claimed off waivers by the Athletics today.

[TooLiveBrew]

I still just don't see how there wouldn't be a 25-man spot for Dillon as the first RH bench bat. I know his defense isn't helpful, but in the NL pinch-hitters carry value. I think Melvin got (minorly) burned on this one.

[Ennder]

Hopefully the first RH bench bat is Hall and the 2nd one is Kapler. Don't really need Dillon as the 3rd one. I guess it could come back to haunt us but it also wouldn't surprise me that Dillon ends up as a AAAA type guy since he has shown nothing at all in the majors yet.

[MNBrew]

...It also wouldn't surprise me that Dillon ends up as a AAAA type guy since he has shown nothing at all in the majors yet.

Shown nothing at all in the majors yet? Granted, he may amount to being not much more than a one-hit wonder in the baseball sense, but Joe Dillon's rock-solid 2007 (AAA and Milwaukee) undermines your whole premise.

[Ennder]

Joe Dillon has a career major league line of .257/.335/.374/.709

 

That is the definition of showing nothing in the majors at this point. Granted he hasn't had much of a chance yet but I stand by the fact he easily could be a AAAA player give his career so far. Especially considering he is 33 this season.