Milwaukee Bucks Thread 2008–2009 (part 1)

[bucks2281]

That is true. It's believed that Herb will not pay the luxury this offseason.

 

Statman -- I've been reading reports that the Blazers requested both Jefferson AND Sessions. I think Hammond hung up on them.

[trwi7]

I think the Bucks will be able to sign CV and Sessions. Or at least one of them. With CV, they just have to do a contract similar to Bogut's. Pick up the qualifying option and extend him after that. So the big money will kick in 2010/11 when the team has $55 million ($16 million less than now) in salaries. The question is more with Sessions as to how much that'll take. If it's $5 to $7 million a year they can do that and then dump salary at next year's deadline. Now I know this would put them at a cap number higher than they want for next year based on Sessions, but there's plenty that can happen in the off-season or during the season to shed contracts.

If Kohl won't pay the luxury tax, we may not be able to sign either. Sessions can't earn more than the MLE for the first two years of his contract (probably around $5.5 million) and if Kohl won't pay the tax, that's all we'll have to spend.

[endaround]

We can pay it, it's just that Herb won't pay it. Same situation as the Suns the few previous years.

Well lets be honest, all that will happen is the Bucks will draft someone who is expected to spend the next 3 years in Europe. and depending upon whre they fall in the draft not having to give a 18+ pick a gauranteed deal isn't exactly a bad thing.

[Diskono]

Well lets be honest, all that will happen is the Bucks will draft someone who is expected to spend the next 3 years in Europe. and depending upon whre they fall in the draft not having to give a 18+ pick a gauranteed deal isn't exactly a bad thing.

And that's probably not a bad idea at all. The thing I'm most worried about at this point is filling out the rest of the roster. CV is gone, but we're probably going to have to trade Jefferson anyway for spare parts. Hopefully he keeps this hot streak up, and we can get some good young talent back.

 

Or hope that the Grizzlies become huge Dan Gadzuric fans really soon.

[davego]

I mentioned earlier that Herb was on WKTY this week and asked directly about the tax. Paraphrasing, he said that no team wants to pay it, but nothing has been decided about that in Milwaukee.

[JJHardy7]

If Kohl won't pay the luxury tax, we may not be able to sign either. Sessions can't earn more than the MLE for the first two years of his contract (probably around $5.5 million) and if Kohl won't pay the tax, that's all we'll have to spend.

 

We don't know for sure that he won't. davgo mentions that in his post above. It won't be easy, but the Bucks can keep CV, Sessions, and draft their #1 (who based on where they may pick may not be huge dollars...if it's a top 3 pick that's a little different). They may have to pay the tax next year. The one thing that I think is getting missed with CV and Sessions is that they are restricted free agents. The Bucks could wait for a team to make an offer and given the current salary cap hell that most teams are in I don't see teams giving CV or Sessions huge deals. Everyone is waiting for the 2010 class and trying to figure out ways to clear cap room...not spend it. I'm not saying that CV and Sessions will both be back, but if the Bucks can afford to pay a bit of the tax they may be able to get these guys at well below market value IMO.

[samwise]

You are probably right on with this JJ. There will only be a few teams this offseason willing and able to spend (Portland, Memphis, OKC). This will make for a dry FA market that may be in the Buck's favor. The real question is if Kohl will go over the cap.

[Gobias Industries]

I know there is no point in debating it now, but if Hammonds didn't trade RJ for Wally's expiring because he didn't want to trade within the division (which he actually said), he's an absolute moron. I can maybe see that line of thought if it's between the Celtics and Cavs (even then that logic is very sketchy; a trade should make both teams better in theory), but give me a break. We're going nowhere even if we make the playoffs.

 

I think this whole deadline ordeal shows extreme shortsightedness on the Bucks front office. If sneaking into the playoffs is their goal, fine. It's their right to believe that, even if it is wrong. But if we don't make it, Hammonds should be fired after the season. Donnie Walsh cleaned up the NYK's mess in the same amount of time, and there was no question they were in much worse shape than us. Not even close really.

[Dmiles23]

I've been trying to take a break from the Bucks up until the deadline because they are waaaay too frustrating. I didn't think there was a chance they wouldn't make some sort of deal at the deadline... and I am furious that they didn't. I don't think there is any way/reason why Kohl goes over the luxury tax next year. Going over by just a little costs him a lot. Say he goes over by $1 million, that really costs him $5 million (the $1 for going over * 2, and then the approximately $3 million the teams get paid for staying under). And why should he go over the luxury tax when the team is horrible and nobody shows up at the games?

 

Right now the Bucks have $64.6 million tied up in 9 players for next season. Most likely, Redd won't be healthy for the beginning of the season, so that's pretty much 8 players. So that means, they have about $5 million to sign at least 4 players. Mbah a Moute is not counted in that salary number, and I know he's signed to a multi-year deal... but I can't find the details. But I'm guessing he'll get a slight raise from the $757,000 he made this year, so maybe around $1 million. Then, you'd need to sign at least 2 more players to minimum salary contracts, which comes out to a little less than $1 million. Add that to the salaries we already have, that's $66.5 million, leaving about $3 million to the to the salary cap. That is not going to be enough to sign either Sessions or Villanueva.

 

So, to sign Sessions or Villanueva, I'm guessing the Bucks will be forced to trade either Jefferson or Ridnour for 3-4 players that combined add up to their salary... and they STILL won't have enough money for both Sessions and Villanueva, let alone their first round pick. Robin Lopez was the 15th pick last year, and he's making $1.6 million. So there really isn't any way the Bucks can clear that salary... unless they let Villanueva AND Sessions walk. So they'll either have to sell that pick off, trade it for a future pick, or pick a foreign player that can/wants to play over seas for a couple years.

 

I just don't understand what's going on with this team. Is Kohl really dense enough to think that if the Bucks make the playoffs this year, the fans will come out in droves next year even if they are terrible? A starting line up of Sessions, Bell, Jefferson(if they keep him through the offseason), Mbah a Moute, and Bogut is fairly decent. But the bench will be HORRIBLE... and it's the Bucks, so you can pretty much count on 2-3 significant injuries. I know a line up if they were able to trade Jefferson at the deadline would be pretty bad too, but at least Bucks fans would have some exciting, young players to watch.

 

So to sum it up, I just don't understand the thinking of Kohl/Hammond. Nobody really knows what deals were on the table but with how many teams were trying to get cap relief/save money at the deadline, if Hammond was ever offered either Raef or Wally straight up for Jefferson, he should have taken it. Maybe tried to get them to throw in their first(especially with Wally because we would have had to pay his whole salary this year), but not try for too much. And one last thing, if the Bucks do decide to sell their 1st this year, they better not be selling it to Portland!!

[samwise]

I agree with everything you said Dmiles. The only logical direction the Bucks are going is being over the cap, otherwise I have no idea what they are doing. If they are just keeping guys to make a run at the 7th or 8th seed knowing that they will get bounced in the 1st round by Cleveland or Boston then this team is lost. I am sure they talked about being over the cap when they traded for RJ and they must have had the same conversation yesterday when when they did not trade him for Wally S.'s contract.

[JJHardy7]

So, to sign Sessions or Villanueva, I'm guessing the Bucks will be forced to trade either Jefferson or Ridnour for 3-4 players that combined add up to their salary...

 

CV is included in your $64.6 million number. I've posted this on another page, but if they simply extend CV next year it'll be pretty easy (similar to Bogut's and have zero cap impact next year). I don't understand those calling for Hammond's head. Do we honestly think the guy is just thinking playoffs and doesn't have a plan for next year? Also, what about the $5.5 million (not sure on the for sure number) player exemption teams have? The Bucks could simply use this on Sessions maybe. That means they'd really have to make a move or two to avoid the luxury tax.

 

My guess is that the luxury tax 'cap' will be raised next year. There's no way from an economics standpoint NBA teams are going to be able to survive since many of them are projected to be over the luxury tax cap next year. Now I don't think it means it will be 'uncapped', but my guess is they'll exempt a certain amount of it. One of the owners of the Celtics was on ESPN radio last week and he stated that the Celtics were doing fine, but he heard many other NBA teams were struggling financially and there have been more talks about moving teams. Out of the 3 major sports, the NBA will hurt the most from the economy IMO and if they don't make changes teams won't be moved...they'll contract.

[bucks2281]

GobiasIndustries, you are correct. Divisions are meaningless in the NBA -- trading within a conference is a concern.

 

Is Kohl really dense enough to think that if the Bucks make the playoffs this year, the fans will come out in droves next year even if they are terrible?

I think the Bucks FO believes that an #8 seed and 4-6 extra games is going to generate interest. Even if they sellout the BC, there will be hoardes of empty seats in the Upper Level. It's not a representation of progress because they're just going to lose CV and their 1st rounder next season anyways. Maybe I'm naive, but I read the RealGM boards everyday, and those guys seem to have a MUCH better philosophy about the current and future state of the franchise than does the FO. Hammond has two tasks: relieving the Bucks from cap hell and getting rid of Redd. Same old Bucks!

 

and there have been more talks about moving teams. Out of the 3 major sports, the NBA will hurt the most from the economy IMO and if they don't make changes teams won't be moved...they'll contract.

 

Agreed on the NBA hurting most from the economy. What is David Stern's infatuation with moving teams? Better to attempt to ride out the storm rather than continuing to switch cities, IMO.

[fondybrewfan]

I haven't read this entire thread but why would the Bucks lose their 1st round pick next year?

[samwise]

My guess is that the luxury tax 'cap' will be raised next year. There's no way from an economics standpoint NBA teams are going to be able to survive since many of them are projected to be over the luxury tax cap next year.

 

I really can't see that happening. According to some of the things Stern has said the NBA has not seen its gate incomes decrease all that much this year. However, it will suffer significantly more next year because less season ticket packages will be sold and renewed. While the increase cap number will save some teams from paying a luxury tax, it will allow some teams, already over to increase their spending. The NBA is aware of this and is not going to let its teams increase spending with less revenue coming in.

[ILuvDaBush]

Much like when the Suns sold the Luol Deng pick to the Bulls, we could be forced to sell off our pick to preserve our paycheck from the league for being below the cap.

 

As for CV/Sessions, I'm torn between which I would rather keep. The Sessions situation reminds me of the original Gilbert Arenas situation with the Warriors. They're too burdened by contracts to sign their restricted free agent and I have the feeling there's a team lying in the weeds ready to pounce. With Villy, I would rather keep him. He could be Tim Thomas, but I would say he's more an amalgamation of Dirk and LaMarcus Aldridge.

[ILuvDaBush]

Charlie Villanueva is my favorite Buck!!! You don't come into our house, putting your hands on me, and expect to walk away without getting a choke hold? "Charlie Villanueva is going to have to choke the female dog out of him!"

[trwi7]

We don't know for sure that he won't.

A poster on realgm, who has broken a ton of stuff on the Bucks before and is a CBA guru has said that Kohl absolutely will not pay the luxury tax next year unless the Bucks do something crazy, like win a round in the playoffs. So the chances of that happening are like .0000001%.

[trwi7]

CV is included in your $64.6 million number.

 

No he's not. Redd, RJ, Bogut, Gadzuric, Ridnour, Bell, Alexander, Elson, Allen and LRMAM combine to make $64,412,000 million next year. You need 13 players on a roster, we have about $5 million to spend for three players.

 

 

My guess is that the luxury tax 'cap' will be raised next year.

 

No it won't. The luxury tax is based on the revenue of the league. With the economy the way it is, the revenue is going down. The luxury tax this year is $71.15 million, the projected luxury tax next year is $69.4 million.

[logan82]

When are the Bucks going to move so I can watch the Badgers hockey games and all the Brewers games without the basketball games interrupting?

[bucks2281]

When are the Bucks going to move so I can watch the Badgers hockey games and all the Brewers games without the basketball games interrupting?

 

That's hardly necessary.

 

Tonight. Wow.

 

-The first few minutes of the second half were surreal. Was anybody else at the game? It felt almost supernatural. LeBron is SUCH a diva (the powder thing on the road? Come on man), but I don't know how you couldn't have been in awe of that run he had. I'll never forget that.

 

-Gotta love this David Stern led league. First, the officials eject Ilgauskas, then they look at the tape, rescind his ejection, even though he instigated the brawl, and then they eject CV. If I ever had the chance to sit courtside, I'd be ripping on the officials the entire game. Just wow.

 

-CV was a hero tonight. His suspension will be well worth it.

[bbrauch2000]

That was just Lebron being better than everyone else on the court. 16 points in short of 3 minutes? One of those threes was at least a 30 footer. If he was hitting his throws, he would have had 60

[nodakfan17]

What exactly happened with CV's rejection last night? I only had my eye on the live box score.

[JoeH33]

What exactly happened with CV's rejection last night? I only had my eye on the live box score.

They show the CV incident in the highlight video here.

ESPN Bucks/Cavs Recap

[nodakfan17]

Joe- thanks. That's exactly what I was looking for. No further explanation needed.

[JJHardy7]

A poster on realgm, who has broken a ton of stuff on the Bucks before and is a CBA guru has said that Kohl absolutely will not pay the luxury tax next year unless the Bucks do something crazy, like win a round in the playoffs. So the chances of that happening are like .0000001%.

 

I still would say we don't know for sure. Maybe he won't pay the tax because there won't be a tax next year. Was this the same guy on realgm who said the Alexander deal was done late last year? I honestly don't recall if it was, but if it was he's not 100% right all the time. I know Kohl isn't a perfect owner and has made mistakes, but if what you're saying is right the Bucks won't be in Milwaukee 5 years from now. It's as simple as that and Kohl isn't that stupid since that would essentially drive down the price he can sell the team for if people know he has to sell the team.

 

No he's not. Redd, RJ, Bogut, Gadzuric, Ridnour, Bell, Alexander, Elson, Allen and LRMAM combine to make $64,412,000 million next year. You need 13 players on a roster, we have about $5 million to spend for three players.

 

Yea you are right. I made the mistake of thinking this site:

 

http://hoopshype.com/salaries/milwaukee.htm

 

included his. I still believe (could be wrong here) that the Bucks could exercise the option at $4.6 and then extend him. Can they do that? Or do they essentially have to give him a new contract?

 

No it won't. The luxury tax is based on the revenue of the league. With the economy the way it is, the revenue is going down. The luxury tax this year is $71.15 million, the projected luxury tax next year is $69.4 million.

 

You kind of make my point. With most teams at or above next year's cap most teams will pay the tax. With the NBA struggling (despite what some league execs say), that could put several teams in financial jeopardy. If they don't change it, you're right. I just think for the simple economics of the game a change will need to be made or teams won't last. The NBA has several owners that made a lot of their money in the stock market or via mortgage industry (ie Quicken Loans Arena in Clev I believe). The owners simply don't have a lot of cash laying around and should the economy continue into next season attendance will drop and teams will be paying tax...there's a huge problem here. And combine this with teams like the Bucks needing a new arena and you'll soon have fewer teams. I don't see teams moving because there probably aren't any cities willing to build a new arena right now or contribute any of their money or taxpayers money.