2009 Brewers ZiPS Projections!

[kramnoj]

http://www.baseballthinkf...ctions_milwaukee_brewers/ is the link to the fresh new projections for the 2009 Brewers. Dan has provided a new format that I like that shows how players projections compare to recent positional performances. Lots of fun stuff to discuss.

[nate82]

 <font><font size="2">Player Spotlight - Rickie Weeks Name AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS OPS+ Optimistic (15%) .280 .400 .506 145 528 127 148 31 8 24 92 87 125 32 6 137 Mean .246 .359 .409 124 452 89 111 22 5 14 61 65 118 21 5 102 Pessimistic (15%) .216 .310 .331 112 408 52 88 17 3 8 42 45 114 14 4 69 </font></font> 

If Weeks could do the mean I would be very happy with that. But the reasonable person in me says it will be more close to the pessimistic numbers than anything else.

[Godspeed]

 <font><font size="2"> Name AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS OPS+ Optimistic (15%) .280 .400 .506 145 528 127 148 31 8 24 92 87 125 32 6 137 Mean .246 .359 .409 124 452 89 111 22 5 14 61 65 118 21 5 102 Pessimistic (15%) .216 .310 .331 112 408 52 88 17 3 8 42 45 114 14 4 69 </font></font> 

If Weeks could do the mean I would be very happy with that. But the reasonable person in me says it will be more close to the pessimistic numbers than anything else.

So I assume you were very happy with his offensive performance last year, because that's pretty much where he was at if he would have had 6 more singles.

Expecting pessimistic numbers isn't reasonable. It's pessimistic.

 

[nate82]

So I assume you were very happy with his offensive performance last year, because that's pretty much where he was at if he would have had 6 more singles.

Expecting pessimistic numbers isn't reasonable. It's pessimistic.

 

Maybe I should have said if Weeks would be closer to the mean between the optimistic and the mean I would be ecstatic. I would be happy if he was close to the numbers of the mean. I just feel the pessimistic numbers maybe more accurate depending on how serious the injury to Weeks is.

[edod]

Man, those optimistic numbers sure are pretty! And they're only a 15% increase...

[Fatter than Joey]

Ryan Braun:

 

Top Near-Age Offensive Comps: Jim Rice, Joe Medwick, Yeshua ben Joseph

 

Heh!

[And That]

Yeshua ben Joseph

My reaction to this was: "I've never heard of this guy, must have played a long time... oh, Christ. I get it."

[TooLiveBrew]

How well is ZiPS regarded when it comes to pitching? They've projected Gallardo for only 82 IP & Parra for just 128.

 

Here's the BBTF blurb on how ZiPS handles player injuries:

 

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information

is always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting

the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

 

Not clear to me how you could project such low IP totals for two pitchers nearing and/or entering their primes.

[Ennder]

It bases it on how much they pitched the last 3 seasons to some degree. Gallardo missed most of the year and Parra has an extensive injury history. It also kind of cheats and just assumes low IP in general since pitchers get hurt so much.

[kramnoj]

Playing time projections should be ignored in ZiPS. That isn't the purpose. The rate stats are the most important stats, and ZiPS has done well compared to other projection systems. I believe that it has recently done better on hitters vs pitchers, but still ok for pitchers.

[TooLiveBrew]

Thanks fellas. I figured there was some relatively crude explanation for why IP totals like that would be so (seemingly) low.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

Corey Hart sure has a nice projection.

[PlayerHader]

If Ryan Braun would approach his top projection it would hardly matter if anyone else on offense would be any better than average. That would be amazing.

[TooLiveBrew]

Seeing Salome atop that list really surprised me. I guess I kinda forget about him with all the prospects we have. He's probably the wrong one to forget, since he happens to play the toughest position. I think 2009 would be a perfect year to break Salome into the bigs... play him as a 3/4 of the year type of callup, unless that projection is overly optimistic. ZiPS seems to be fairly conservative as a general rule (which I like), so I'd be interested to see their +15% line for Salome.

[Scooter1027]

A few projections that interest me:

 

Ray Durham's .235/.326/.357 line. Kind of ugly. I thought he was pretty solid for us, posted a .280/.369/.477 line in 107 Milwaukee ABs in '08. That projection suggests a pretty steep decline, but I guess he will be 37 years old, and his defense is already awful. Is this a guy we should bring back? Maybe just for depth and to face tough righties (assuming Weeks is back)?

 

Alcides Escobar's .268/.292/.342 line. Yeesh, sub-.300 OBP, just about the last thing this lineup needs. I see a number of people want him rushed into Milwaukee and want Hardy moved (either traded or shifted to another position)...I want no part of that yet. Let's give him a year (or two) to improve his bat at AAA.

 

Chris Capuano's 4.53 ERA in 24 G (22 GS), 115 K in 137 IP. I would be very pleased to get this kind of contribution out of Capuano this year. I'm very skeptical he can pull that off, but that would sure be a nice pitching boost.

 

Mark DiFelice's ranking as the team's 4th best reliever, being Shouse/Stetter/Torres, and projected to be better than Riske, Mota, Villanueva (in a swingman role), Coffey, Gagne, and McClung. I really like DiFelice and hope he gets a crack at the 25 man next year.

[sbrylski]

Man, those optimistic numbers sure are pretty! And they're only a 15% increase...

 

I'm fairly certain it means there is a 15% chance he hits those numbers.

[endaround]

Seeing Salome atop that list really surprised me. I guess I kinda forget about him with all the prospects we have. He's probably the wrong one to forget, since he happens to play the toughest position. I think 2009 would be a perfect year to break Salome into the bigs... play him as a 3/4 of the year type of callup, unless that projection is overly optimistic. ZiPS seems to be fairly conservative as a general rule (which I like), so I'd be interested to see their +15% line for Salome.

 

Salome's bat isn't the problem.

[nate82]

A few projections that interest me:

 

Ray Durham's .235/.326/.357 line. Kind of ugly. I thought he was pretty solid for us, posted a .280/.369/.477 line in 107 Milwaukee ABs in '08. That projection suggests a pretty steep decline, but I guess he will be 37 years old, and his defense is already awful. Is this a guy we should bring back? Maybe just for depth and to face tough righties (assuming Weeks is back)?

If Weeks gets moved to CF you can have a platoon of Hall/Durham at 2B and use Hall at 3B when Branyan needs a day off. Basically Hall becomes a super sub again. I'm guessing Kapler will be back with these moves also. Having Kapler platoon with Weeks and fill in for Braun and Hart when need be.

[TooLiveBrew]

Mark DiFelice's ranking as the team's 4th best reliever, being Shouse/Stetter/Torres, and projected to be better than Riske, Mota, Villanueva (in a swingman role), Coffey, Gagne, and McClung. I really like DiFelice and hope he gets a crack at the 25 man next year.

 

I am another DiFelice backer. His chances have really been limited, but he's basically done nothing but succeed. Imo DiFelice gives us insurance to let Villanueva try to bail us out of having Suppan as our #4 in 2009.

 

I'm not totally sold on Coffey, but adding him plus DiFelice to the bullpen in full-time roles (or close) would have to help improve over the 2008 'pen.

[Ennder]

Villaneuva has been terrible as a starter and great in the bullpen, I don't see any reason to mess with that. I'd rather see McClung move to starter than CV at this point. CV really struggles that 3rd time through the lineup.

[JoeHova]

Villaneuva has been terrible as a starter and great in the bullpen, I don't see any reason to mess with that. I'd rather see McClung move to starter than CV at this point. CV really struggles that 3rd time through the lineup.

 

 

 

That was in 2008. In 2007, it was the opposite (though he did pitch well as a reliever for the first 3 months). CV is tough to figure out, I hope he puts it all together next season. He seems close to doing that, judging from his K/BB ratio as a reliever this year (4.4/1). He also struck out more than a guy per inning in 59 1/3 innings of relief. I think he can be much more valuable than his projection.

 

Among the projections, I'm most excited for Prince, Braun, and Salome. Salome projects to have a 95-ish OPS+, which would be well above average for a catcher and a massive improvement on Kendall's 72 from 2008. That would be a huge help to the offense, as would having two guys with OPS's of .950+, as Braun and Prince are projected to have. Branyan was the only guy over .900 this year, and he only got 132 ABs.

 

For some reason I'm afraid Salome is destined to go the way of Branyan and be an unappreciated player. That's probably more paranoia on my part, but it just seems like he's a guy where people (and teams) focus on what he can't do (be tall, throw out a ton of guys) rather than what he can, just like Russ. I really hope I'm proven wrong, and the September call-up from AA was definitely a good sign that I might be worrying unnecessarily.

[JohnBriggs12]

Villaneuva has been terrible as a starter and great in the bullpen, I don't see any reason to mess with that. I'd rather see McClung move to starter than CV at this point. CV really struggles that 3rd time through the lineup.

 

I'm with JoeHova. Villanueva got 9 starts in 2009. In 9 starts he was 2-5 with a 6.43 ERA. In Bush's first 9 starts last year, he was 1-5 with a 6.56 ERA. Villanueva could just as well have turned it around like Bush did as well had he stayed in the rotation. It could have been a coincidence that he started having success as a reliever but we'll never know. He was very good as a starter in 06 and 07.

 

I think they'll keep him in the pen in 09 though. In fact, he's my sleeper to close next season.

[Ennder]

I dunno his splits scare me as a starter. The samples are a bit low of course but for his career he has a .671 OPS against first time through the order, .784 second time and 1.037 the third time (141 PA). Pitch 1-25 he has a .669 OPS against, 26-50 a .769, 51-75 a .671, 75-100 a 1.123 and 101+ a 1.538. From watching him it just seems like he doesn't have the stuff to get guys out after they have seen it a couple times in a game.

 

Bush actually gets better deeper in games because his control seems to improve as the game goes on.

[rluzinski]

I don't think I'd be comfortable trying to make generalizations about Villy as a starter vs. a reliever. The fact that he doesn't even project well as a reliever right now isn't very exciting, though.

[Ennder]

I don't think I'd be comfortable trying to make generalizations about Villy as a starter vs. a reliever. The fact that he doesn't even project well as a reliever right now isn't very exciting, though.

 

That projection did include 11 starts though. It is assuming a repeat of his last two seasons in usage.