Wisconsin Winter Weather Thread 08-09 Version

[GAME05]

North Carolina Winter Weather Post: the Winston-Salem area got 5" of snow last night, the most I've ever seen in the three years I've lived here. Really pretty outside, plus school was shut down today.

[blatzlight]

In downtown Milwaukee it is sunny and snowing at 1.45pm. Today is one of the oddest weather days I have ever seen.

[RyDogg66]

Rarely is there a storm where Oshkosh takes the brunt of it and both Milwaukee and GB get less but we got over 7 inches of the heaviest stickiest snow I have shoveled in a long time yesterday. It was just terrible, I walked out in it and when the snow (which accumulated quickly) hit me it didnt feel like snow or sleet or anything like that, it felt like regular rain, yet it was drifting in my driveway from the wind, well over a foot. Aye, it was bad.

[honuswagner21]

Would've thought that we were done with this thread for the year but the latest reports are for more snow this weekend in Southeast Wisconsin. According noaa.gov the MKE area is in store for 3-6 inches? I can't always understand the Forecast Discussion section but I saw some references in there for a possible 8 inches in MKE and possibly 15 inches in the Madison area. Is anyone else hearing this? At least snow at this time of year won't stick around long.

[NeedMoreFans]

I have heard this as well. I read the forecast discussion from the NWS, and it sounds like there is some disagreement in the models, but it sounds like there will be some snow. I'm hoping the 15 inch model is inaccurate.

[hawing]

I took a look at the NWS forecast discussion, after honuswagner21's curiosity piquing post, and the relevant part appears below.

I'm no obsessedwithbrewcrew, but my guess is that the forecast models disagree, perhaps wildly, on how much snow might fall in Madison or Milwaukee. Even the NWS forecast for Madison currently hints at 2-5 inches total, so perhaps the 15 inch bit is from the X-treme forecast model that's always out there predicting something more drastic (hawing said hopefully).

 

 [/pre] 
 AS FOR PRECIP AMOUNTS...IT LOOKS LIKE A RANGE OF A QUARTER INCH OVER THE NW PART OF THE CWA TO AROUND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH IN THE [/pre]SW. THIS WOULD TRANSLATE TO 3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS THE CWA USING MODEL 
 SNOW RATIO GRIDS AROUND 10:1. GFS COBB TECHNIQUE (WITH A BULLSEYE OF 
 HIGHER QPF ACROSS THE CENTER PART OF THE CWA) SHOWS A WET 2 INCHES 
 AT MKE AND 15 INCHES FOR MSN...AND THE NAM COBB SHOWS 8.7 INCHES FOR 
 MKE AND NOTHING FOR MSN. SNOW RATIO GRIDS WILL NEED TO BE MODIFIED 
 TO ACCOUNT FOR WETTER RAIN/SNOW MIX IN SE CLOSER TO THE EVENT.
 
[code] [/code]

[DatHoser]

That sounds like the meteorological equivalent of "We'll be there between 10 and 4."

[owbc]

Fortunately, the 15" numbers aren't going to happen. There was one model run that painted that scary scenario and it fortunately looks like it was just a nightmare.

 

It looks like somewhere between 4-8" is likely for Milwaukee/Madison. However, there are a number of issues such as air temperature, how much the snow will stick to the ground, how much Lake Michigan will hold down snow totals, how much moisture will be stolen by thunderstorms to the south...

 

Historically, we all know that we can get nailed in March and April, so I would go ahead and prepare for a snowstorm Saturday night. My official forecast is that there is a 95% chance that winter storm watches will be issued this afternoon.

[hawing]

My official forecast is that there is a 95% chance that winter storm watches will be issued this afternoon.

And the 5% kicks in! The winter storm watch was issued at 11:58 AM. I want an "obsessedwithbrewcrew was wrong" umbrella. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

 

I like how the current winter storm watch message gives an estimate for south/east of Madison and north/west of Madison, but seems to leave a mystery swath in between. Oh well, March snow shouldn't last long anyway.

 

Also, Madison apparently needs only .08 in precipitation to make March 2009 the wettest March on record. To paraphrase those wacky baseball fans to the south, it's gonna happen.

[RyDogg66]

So if I am North and East of Madison, what does that make me?

[Fatter than Joey]

Lame

[owbc]

Still a tough forecast today. I can see some parts of the Winter Storm Warning area picking up 6-8" and other areas only getting 2-3". The two models I look at each show a different solution and have been consistent with that for several runs now. -The ground should be cold enough for the snow to stick fairly quickly, especially if the temperature stays in the mid-30s today. -Milwaukee/Kenosha/Racine counties are the biggest question mark, I'm leaning toward it being too warm there to see significant travel problems. 3-6" or so. -The Winter Weather Advisory counties could easily go to a warning depending on the afternoon model runs. Madison is right on the line where a 20 mile shift in the track could mean the difference between 2" and 7". I'm leaning higher for Madison right now, but that could change in a few hours. Madison's rainfall record is going to get crushed and there are two more storms expected this week (mostly rain, fortunately)

[RyDogg66]

Lame

I expected more from you with the set-up I gave you there.

[Fatter than Joey]

I expected more from you with the set-up I gave you there.

 

Fair enough....

 

How about this...

 

So if I am North and East of Madison, what does that make me?

 

South of Cool, West of Fantastic, and with a 0% chance of Awesomeness.

[DatHoser]

Now THAT's the FtJ we all know and love.http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/laugh.gif

 

Back to the weather. I love watching radar loops and trying to predict when we get hit be precip. (yes I'm a complete loser as that's my definition of fun). However, the track of the latest band of precip. is very hard to predict. I guess we'll see it when we see it.

[BrewCrewForever]

I guess what would March in Wisconsin be without at least one storm. Doesn't seem like it will be too bad. Should all melt tomorrow and Monday anyway.

[owbc]

I am now much more confident my earlier suspicions were correct--Milwaukee and south should see mostly rain/mix at the beginning while Madison can expect closer to 6" depending on how fast the stuff sticks...at that includes NE of Madison since the storm is tracking SW to NE.

 

As for the radar loops--you can see that the storm is moving farther west than originally forecasted by looking at where the main precipitation band is set up right now. Another issue with winter storms is that the precipitation also starts as virga--so it looks like it should be snowing outside based on the radar but nothing is actually falling. One way to help figure out when the precip will actually start is to look at surface relatively humidity, since you want the air to be at least 80-90% saturated to stop the snow from evaporating before it hits the ground. Right now, Milwaukee is 33 with a 24 dew point, so at only 70% RH, it will take a little while to saturate the lower atmosphere before it can snow.

[DatHoser]

Thanks obsessed, I for one love learning about this! Maybe after I get laid off eventually, I can go into something like this. This stuff is really fascinating to me.

[honuswagner21]

Yes, I also very much appreciate your commentary OWBC. Can I commission you to assist with the weather forecast for my upcoming July nuptials? It will be an outdoor ceremony so I am hoping not to have to make a post in the Wisconsin Winter Weather thread at that time.

[owbc]

Thanks guys, I obviously really enjoy talking about the weather so if you ever have any questions or need a forecast, I'll be glad to help.

 

By the way, it looks like my earlier thoughts might be off, it's looking plenty cold enough for snow everywhere, which means some areas in the far southeast are going to push 10" with this one. 4-6" looks good for a Madison to Sheboygan line, less NW, more SE.

[burniebrewer]

The snow has begun in Madison...

[Invader3K]

We ended up getting more snow than I expected here in Fort, but less than the alarmist weather reports were predicting, I think. Of course, it's supposed to at least flurry for a few more hours here...then I guess I will take care of it.

[RyDogg66]

It appears to be done in Oshkosh, it was less than an inch. Phew.

[Fatter than Joey]

It appears to be done in Oshkosh, it was less than an inch.

 

That's what she said!

[Hammer]

It appears to be done in Oshkosh, it was less than an inch.

 

That's what she said!

Ooh, burn.