Sheets watch (closed in deference to new thread)

[TooLiveBrew]

Is he really good WHEN HEALTHY? Yes.

 

And Sabathia's arm was abused last season & he suffered in the postseason. I don't get where the disconnect comes from, aside from fan emotions & inability to be objective.

 

 

Pettite

Maddux

Randy Johnson

Livian Hernandez

Jamie Moyer

Derek Lowe

Kevin Millwood

Tim Hudson

Tom Glavine

Javier Vaczquez

 

If anyone wants to argue that anyone on that list is a better option than Sheets for 2009, I'm sorry but I just think he/she'd be lost. Maybe Hudson.. maybe Millwood. But that's about it. I can't believe that, in the face of overwhelming evidence that Ben Sheets just isn't this embarassingly un-durable pitcher, people still cling to straws. He's a top-tier pitcher, but people seem to just pick out the top pitchers each season that don't get hurt & preach that Sheets is such an inferior option, because, 'See?! These pitchers were healthy this season!' Is he healthy for each start? No. But no pitcher is. That's the reality that some refuse to accept no matter what.

[trwi7]

If anyone wants to argue that anyone on that list is a better option than Sheets for 2009, I'm sorry but I just think he/she'd be lost.

I wouldn't take Millwood but I'd take Lowe over Sheets on that list. I think Hudson is going to be out for a while because of that arm surgery he had earlier this year, so I'd take Sheets over him too.

[TooLiveBrew]

I'm surprised. Imo Lowe is nowhere near the talent that Sheets is, and has been pitching in a pitchers' park in LA. Plus, he's older than Ben (entering his age 36 season)

[bklynbrewcrew]

I really hope we resign Sheets. We can probably get him for half of what it will cost CC and Sheets is just as good. I will be very upset if we let our ace go. CC is either going to Anaheim or NY so we really need to focus on Ben. A rotation of Sheets, Gallardo, Parra, Bush, Suppan is good enough to make the playoffs. The last thing we need is for Sheets to go to Houston while we get desperate and overpay for a guy like Garland.

[Ennder]

Is that really a complete list? I looked up Jeff Suppan and it seems like he should be on that list, around 1600 IP. If he's missing from the list, who else? Or maybe I'm missing something....

 

According to baseballreference there are 22 pitchers that fit the criteria of IP > 1428 from 2001-2008. I don't pay for the web site so I can't see who they actually are.

[joepepsi]

Lowe's ERA at Dodger stadium the last 4 years is 3.21. His road ERA must be a full run higher. Lowe is like Dave Bush at his best. Nothing to be ashamed of, but hardly Sheets' level.

[sveumrules]

I used the mlb.com historical stats feature and highlighted 2001-2007 (as 2008 is not yet in the queue) and then manually added 2008 totals. what i didn't realize is that players totals are not cumulative, but broken down based on the teams played for within those years. thus suppan is broken up into two entries for the cardinals and brewers. maddux between the cubs and braves. and so on...

 

faulty methodology and all, dropping from the top 10 to top 25 is hardly a monumental fall down the list.

[RyDogg66]

Sheets is a fall back option for every team in baseball who would rather have CC Sabathia, which I would assume would be every team. Just because a team isnt wasting their time chasing Sabathia doesnt mean they think any less of Ben Sheets. The reason the Brewers are wasting their time chasing Sabathia is two fold. One because they traded for him last season, he would not cost a comp pick and the fans loved him and they are hoping he liked it here and might take 20-21 million over 5 years to stick around in a situation he enjoys. The second reason is, he is better than Sheets and you realistically cannot say that about any other FA pitcher this offseason.

[JohnBriggs12]

There probably aren't 25 pitchers in all of baseball who were regular starters in 2001 who are still regular starters. Of that group, I think it's safe to say that Sheets is near the bottom in innings. So saying he's in the top 25 isn't really that notable. He was a rookie in 2001, so he was among the youngest starters that year and therefore more likely than most to still be a starter, but he's missed a lot of starts since 2005.

[RyDogg66]

Who cares Briggs. Bottom line is this; there will be few pitchers available this offseason that produce like Ben Sheets will. Sure, we can overpay some mediocre rosin bag to come in and be Jeff Suppan Part Deux, but lets be honest, that is a grass is greener argument. Brewer fans have an irrational dislike for Ben Sheets simply because he failed to pitch the exact same as he did in 2004 for the duration of his contract from 2005-2008.

 

Ben Sheets wont cost a 1st round pick

Ben Sheets wont cost any prospects to acquire

Ben Sheets likely will not get a contract over 4 years

He is one of the youngest Free Agent pitchers available

His price is likely to be less than Burnett and Lowe and I maintain that Ben is better than both pitchers.

 

Sitting here and splitting hairs about how many innings he is likely to throw is ridiculous, someone like John Garland at 4 years and 50 million will have people wishing we had Ben Sheets for 175 innings a year.

[Roscoe Chill]

If you really think that Sabathia to Milwaukee for ~ $100 Million is realistic, I don't know what to say. Again, that's not a knock on the Brewers, but just because he liked his short stay in Milwaukee, that doesn't mean he's going to leave $50 Million on the table. Let's be serious.

 

So, yeah I'll say it again, if Ben Sheets is as good/dependable/valuable as so many on this site think he is, I guess I don't understand why the Brewers are just leaving the door open for his return rather than offering him up a really nice 5 year contract offer for $15 Million Plus per season, because the Sabathia offer is a valiant effort, but just as much as a PR move as an offer that a smart GM like Melvin actually believes will be enough.

 

And Sabathia's arm was abused last season & he suffered in the postseason. I don't get where the disconnect comes from, aside from fan emotions & inability to be objective.

 

I guess I don't understand why you quoted my comment on Sheets and then said this. What does this have anything to do with Ben Sheets' situation as a free agent right now?

[jjfanec]

Sheets has started more games and pitched more innings than A.J. Burnett in his career and Burnett pitched 20 games before Sheets got into the league. I think whoever signs Burnett is just as likely to get burned as the team who signs Sheets and Sheets will cost less and demand less years. He is the guy to go after if CC does not sign here which seems to be the case.

[RyDogg66]

So, yeah I'll say it again, if Ben Sheets is as good/dependable/valuable as so many on this site think he is, I guess I don't understand why the Brewers are just leaving the door open for his return rather than offering him up a really nice 5 year contract offer for $15 Million Plus per season, because the Sabathia offer is a valiant effort, but just as much as a PR move as an offer that a smart GM like Melvin actually believes will be enough.

 

 

NDOG, its all about PR. Right now, the Brewers have the best offer on the table for CC Sabathia, and even though it is because no other team can make an offer, it still looks good. Wow, the average fan thinks, we are offering him Johan Santana type cash, impressive. Now, if we waited to make an offer until after the Yankees pitched 6 years 150 million, the fans would be upset that we offered something so far below the current offer. If we made no offer before FA and no offer after, then it is "same ole Brewers" that fans love the chant.

 

The timing and amount of the CC offer is all about PR.

 

Sheets is exactly the opposite. Why offer him 5/75 before free agency when you know darn well he wont take it anyway and you now just gave him an offer for others to match or beat on the open market. Who knows what Ben's value is on the market. Some GMs surely think Burnett, Lowe and Garland are better targets for lots of crazy reasons. Why offer 5/75 when the market may dictate that he accept arbitration? Or take a 3/45deal or 2/30?? No reason to offer a contract to Sheets now. And if he did accept (which he never would) then Melvin gets lambasted for prioritizing Sheets over Sabathia.

[fondybrewfan]

Sheets is exactly the opposite. Why offer him 5/75 before free agency when you know darn well he wont take it anyway and you now just gave him an offer for others to match or beat on the open market. Who knows what Ben's value is on the market. Some GMs surely think Burnett, Lowe and Garland are better targets for lots of crazy reasons. Why offer 5/75 when the market may dictate that he accept arbitration? Or take a 3/45deal or 2/30?? No reason to offer a contract to Sheets now. And if he did accept (which he never would) then Melvin gets lambasted for prioritizing Sheets over Sabathia.

I am not disagreeing with you but if the Crew had offered Ben 5/75 I am pretty sure he would have accepted it the moment he recieved the offer. I think Ben realizes he is going to have to accept a 1-3 year offer to try to rebuild his value. If someone offers him a 5 year offer he would be pretty stupid to decline unless it is incredibly low on the $ per year. My prediction for Sheets is a 3 year deal for at $15M a year give or take a couple million.

 

I also don't think the Brewers offer is complete window dressing either. It looks like the Crews offer might be pretty comparable to all other offers except the Yanks. It isn't out of the realm of possiblity that the 2nd highest offer CC recieves will be from the Brewers especially if Tex signs with LAA and Manny signs with the LAD.

[RyDogg66]

I am not disagreeing with you but if the Crew had offered Ben 5/75 I am pretty sure he would have accepted it the moment he recieved the offer. I think Ben realizes he is going to have to accept a 1-3 year offer to try to rebuild his value. If someone offers him a 5 year offer he would be pretty stupid to decline unless it is incredibly low on the $ per year. My prediction for Sheets is a 3 year deal for at $15M a year give or take a couple million.

Exactly, so why would they make that offer? I wasnt saying that should offer it, only that there are a bunch of reasons why they would not have. They wouldnt offer it because he me may go for much less than that. I believe 5 yrs at 15 million per was NDOGs suggestion (unless I misread, in which case I apologize). The fact is, it only takes one team to make an offer of 15 million over 5 years. If he stays healthy, it is likely to be a bargain deal.

[Roscoe Chill]

That's kind of the point RyDogg. He may go for much less than 5 years, $75 million. Why? Because of his health. I'm saying Sheets' health is a MAJOR issue with his status. I'm asking rhetorically why haven't they decided to go after a life-long Brewer who is one of the best pitchers in baseball (the obligatory when healthy) for a really nice contract? Instead they are making a valiant effort (but one that is inevitably going to come up short) for a guy that was in Milwaukee three months. I already know the answer, I just don't understand why so many people seem to just gloss over his unavailabiltiy.

[lukevan]

He may go for much less than 5 years, $75 million. Why? Because of his health. I'm saying Sheets' health is a MAJOR issue with his status.

 

Obviously. The elbow thing at the end of the season threw his FA status into the air. If he hadn't had an injury he probably would be right up there with CC and would be almost guaranteed a 5 year contract.

 

You're probably right that the Brewers have no chance to sign CC (though if he doesn't want to be a Yankee I still think we have a shot) but that really has nothing to do with offering Sheets a contract. Offers from other teams on Sheets may not be as high as he was hoping and we may be able to outbid the other teams. Sheets will wait until CC is signed by somebody because at that point he could be considered the best pitcher remaining in free agency.

[Roscoe Chill]

I agree with most of what you're saying lukevan. I guess my point is that around here, people want to argue that Ben Sheets doesn't have an injury history to worry about, and people compare to him to every pitcher saying: 'See, he's normal as far as injuries go.' But he's not. And Doug Melvin must feel the same way, otherwise wouldn't he go after a guy that has a lot more ties to Milwaukee then a guy who was here for three months and liked it, and is going to get more money than Johan Santana did a year ago...probably by a lot?

Why the fallback option? Why is he plan B? Why the wait and see, door is still not closed necessarily attitude? Meanwhile, they're offering $100 million to an unattainable free agent. There are major concerns with his health, and the Brewers obviously (thankfully) agree, and he's a guy that might be back if the price is right type of thing...that doesn't sound like one of the top players available on the open market to me. Could he end up being a great signing for some team, including the Brewers? Sure. But he's got many, many question marks, and that all has to do with his availability the past few years.

You can't really have it both ways, either he's a health risk (injury prone, unlucky, whatever), or he's not and he should break the bank Zito/Santana/Sabathia style. Which is it?

[Oldcity]

I don't think it's fair to call Sheets Plan B, because that would make Sabathia Plan A. I think Sabathia is more like Plan Powerball Ticket.

[Ennder]

You obviously have an opinion about Sheets and you are trying to force your opinion on the Brewers management pretty much, that is the entire problem with your argument. Not giving an offer to Sheets yet pretty much is meaningless. It doesn't mean they think he stinks, it doesn't mean they don't want him back, it just means their focus is somewhere else. They want Sabathia more than Sheets.

 

Personally I don't offer a longterm contract to a 30 year old pitcher if I can avoid it no matter what add in some health concerns and I don't do it. The only pitchers in baseball I'd offer a 5+ year deal to right now are Webb and Santana, the rest of them arent' good enough or are too big an bigger injury risk. I don't want Sabathia back either but I know I'm in the minority. I think the odds of Sabathia staying healthy even the next 3 years are extremely low given how much he was abused the last 2 years.

[Roscoe Chill]

That's fine, but again Sabathia will not be coming back to the Brewers next year. Management gave it a shot, definitely not a half-assed shot, but definitely not a realistic shot either. I don't think that the Brewers think Sheets stinks. But if he were as valuable as some here make him out to be, the Brewers wouldn't be wasting any time chasing CC, they'd be locking up the next best thing that's been with the organization for a decade or so.

[PeaveyFury]

NDOG, your argument is based solely on the Brewers' thoughts/rationale. Isn't it feasible that maybe the front office has been given signals from Sheets that he doesn't want to come back, and maybe that's why they're taking a chance on Sabathia?

 

After all, almost all of Sheets interviews between the start of the season and the end clearly reflected that Sheets expected to be moving on.

[TooLiveBrew]

I guess my point is that around here, people want to argue that Ben Sheets doesn't have an injury history to worry about, and people compare to him to every pitcher saying: 'See, he's normal as far as injuries go.' But he's not.

 

No one is saying he doesn't have an injury history to plan around & worry about. The problem is when you say he's different from other pitchers in terms of injuries. It just doesn't hold up. It's just like fans claiming our bullpen was awful last season -- an emotional response.

[logan82]

Ennder wrote:

I don't want Sabathia back either but I know I'm in the minority. I think the odds of Sabathia staying healthy even the next 3 years are extremely low given how much he was abused the last 2 years.

I don't want CC back either unless we are talking a 4 year or less contract. I think if they are offering 4/$100M the contract has a shot. I think a 5/$100M deal isn't likely to be enough.

 

As far as Sheets, I wouldn't mind a big one year or 2 year contract. I still think the Brewers are going to see what other teams offer. Sheets might still get a 5+ year deal. I don't think Sheets is any more likely to get injured than any other pitcher, but it is almost impossible to tell what other teams think. It only takes one desperate team with money to overpay a guy.

[Roscoe Chill]

Peavey: Yes, maybe Sheets doesn't want to come back. I guess I could say wait and see what Sheets actually gets on the open market, and that will make my point when it happens as well. My point is that Sheets is overrated on this website, and only because the injuries and time missed aren't taken as serious as they should be...or excuses are made for him, the old one injury that spanned over two seasons, or none of the injuries were his pitching arm variety of excuses. It doesn't matter why he wasn't available at the end of the season the last two years, the only two years they had a shot in the playoffs in the last 15.

 

TLB: If he isn't different than other pitchers out there, then why are you suggesting an "ideal" scenario of a two year incentive laden contract in another thread? That doesn't sound like a normal pitcher as far as health goes, especially one who is a free agent, and one that is supposedly one of the best pitchers in baseball.

 

I feel like no one is understanding what the hell I'm trying to say: Ben Sheets is esssentially damaged goods, past the age of 30, and the Brewers DON'T look at him as a must sign player. The fact that they are waiting for the Sabathia situation to inevitably be settled, resulting in him NOT being a Brewer before they'll even turn their attention to Sheets speaks volumes. That's fine, for whatever reason, he's not a priority. My point is the reason he's not a priority is pretty clear, not at all surprising, but some people around here talk out of both sides of their mouths (He's the best free agent available next to Sabathia/let's offer him a two year non guaranteed deal!) Like I said, you can't really have it both ways, either he's not even close to as valuable on the open market as some think (EVERYTHING taken in to consideration) or he's going to get beaucoup coin.