Sheets watch (closed in deference to new thread)

[Ennder]

Curt Schilling - http://www.baseball-reference.com/s/schilcu01.shtml

Josh Beckett - http://www.baseball-reference.com/b/beckejo02.shtml

A.J. Burnett - http://www.baseball-reference.com/b/burnea.01.shtml (assuming he pitches 180 innings next year of course)

Roy Halladay - http://www.baseball-reference.com/h/hallaro01.shtml

Andy Pettitte - http://www.baseball-reference.com/p/pettian01.shtml

Randy Johnson - http://www.baseball-reference.com/j/johnsra05.shtml

 

 

Just looking at any pitcher who has been in the league 10+ years it is harder to find one that didn't have a 3 year stretch of 150 IP/year than one that did have it. Almost every pitcher goes through it at some point these days. Almost every pitch is max effort now, you don't have pitchers who go out there and just toss it in and let them hit it because the lineups are just too strong now. It is also much harder to live off a fast ball and change up so everyone throws pitches that are harder on their arms.

[JimH5]

Ennder. . .thank you for that. You shut me up a little bit, but I have to argue with a couple of your comparables.

I will grant you that Schilling's '94-'96 years do absolutely give you one guy who had a stretch like Sheets, missing considerable time in his late 20s, who then had great success later in his career. And IF Burnett makes it another year or two with good health, then that would be an example. He hasn't done it yet, though, so let's hold off for now.

I can't call Beckett a fair comp. He's younger, and his bounce-back years came at age 26 & 27.

Halladay only missed time in two seasons, '04-'05. Sheets has missed time in 3, plus at the end of last year.

Pettitte has only had two injury seasons, each of them after turning 30.
And Johnson is a lot like Pettitte, in that he missed time in his age 30 & 32 seasons, and then again, much later.

Schilling is really the one guy who best stands as evidence that you can miss as much time as Sheets at a similar age, and then find health and success.

[CheezWizHed]

But even with positive examples of pitchers that came back to succeed, there must be quite a number of pitchers (without looking) that don't... right?

 

Thats why he probably won't get 4-5 year or $20 mil/yr offers. The higher probability is that he will get worse instead of better.

 

I'm ok signing him to a 1-2 year deal, but not a 4-5 year.

[joepepsi]

He'll either get 3 years + an option at something like $16-17 million a year, or 4 years + option at somewhere around $15 million or just under per year.

 

Sheets made 31 starts and pitched 198 innings. The team won 18 of those 31 starts. 5 of the losses were by two runs or less. If he performs to that level for some team next year he'll be worth the $50-60 million they've paid, because that team will be going to the playoffs.

[Ennder]

Halladay only missed time in two seasons, '04-'05. Sheets has missed time in 3, plus at the end of last year.

 

So if Sheets had missed all of 2005 and been healthy in 2006 it would be different? I mean because one injury bridged two seasons it makes him more injury prone? With Beckett being younger is a disadvantage not an advantage. Very few pitchers make it through a lot of injury issues at a young age and go on to pitch full seasons, it is usually a sign that their arm can't handle the load. Sheets has proven his can handle it, he's just had some injuries like almost every pitcher does. Heck most of the time he missed in 2005 wasn't even to an injury, it was to an illness.

[rluzinski]

I'm not arguing that Sheets should be signed to a long term deal. I'm simply trying to form a consensus about how many IP an average free agent 30 pitcher should be expected to accrue, vs an injury prone one, like Sheets. It's not 220/0. What is it?

[JimH5]

My thought --though it's certainly not mine alone--is that players in their late 20s are in the prime of life, physically. I'm going under the assumption that their physical bodies are as good as they're going to get. And then, it gets worse from there.

So with Sheets missing so much time in his late 20s, I was looking for a comparable guy, who missed significant time in his 20s, and then turned it around in his 30s. Beckett doesn't qualify under my narrow scope, as he's not yet on the other side. He hasn't done his post-30 stuff yet. Schilling does qualify, so there is at least one example of a guy doing what we hope Sheets can do.

And I think that only looking at the previous 3 years and assuming something less is a poor way of projecting future innings. There are a lot of other things to consider, IMO.

I just don't know how many innings the guy can throw. You put 160 out there. Maybe he can reach it, maybe not. Maybe more.

I used the 3-year average, since that's what he's done in his most recent past. I can't project him being healthier than that.

With Sheets, I don't think you can start with 180 and work backwards. I think you start with 0 and work forwards, and in doing so, understand that he's older, he's currently injured, and remember that last year was a contract year.

If you think that equals 160, then that's fine.

But I don't want to just criticize your guesstimate without providing one of my own. . .so I'll say he's good for 120 IP per year for the next 3. And there was absolutely no methodology in pulling that number from the air. Just my own pessimism.

[Ennder]

The biggest risk areas for SP are generally the mid to late 30's on and the early 20's so I'm just not agreeing with you I guess. The most likely ages for a pitcher to stay healthy are their mid 20's to mid 30's which is right where Sheets is right now. I'd put him down for something like 140-160 IP a year as a safe projection range with his current elbow condition obviously being the wild card. If they are lying and it really is something big then that changes things, if it is just a tired elbow from someone who probably threw too many pitches then I'd stand by that projection.

[twobrewers]

Sheets' opening day start on 4/2/07 was just on FSN Brewers Classic.

 

The treatment of Sheets by Brewer fans has been almost criminal. He has been a fantastic pitcher for many years. Even with injuries, he has been something special to watch.

 

I hope he moves on and has a healthy and great finish to his career. Milwaukee got behind a hired gun like Sabathia - but could never fully accept our own in Sheets. He deserved better.

[mletto157]

I agree twobrewers! As soon as CC came to town (which we all knew would only be for half a year) people immediately rallied around him and threw Sheets under the bus. Sheets has done anything and everything for the Brewers for a long time now and so many are way to quick to disregard all of that. I just don't get it.

[Invader3K]

I don't think it's fair to say people threw Sheets "under the bus" when CC came to Milwaukee. If anything, people were excited to have two high caliber pitchers at the top of the rotation. I think many fans just got frustrated at the end of the year when Sheets couldn't go, yet again, when the team really could have used him.

 

Personally, I'd like to see him back with the team if the price was reasonable. I just think some other organization is going to overpay him.

[joepepsi]

I think it's a bit of the "grass is greener" effect.

[Tbadder]

My own guess is that Bennie thinks Milwaukee threw him under the bus (fans for their reaction and organization for not taking care of a contract before the beginning of last season), and he can't wait to get out. I think we have a greater chance of signing CC (5%) than Sheets (1%).

[phxMILWfan]

As much talk as there is about how it would be a bad idea to have CC longterm because of the money and potential for injury that's all it is for Sheets. He's a great pitcher and I'd love to have him back, he's just not a smart signing for anything more than 1 year 12-15 million. Any longer than that contract I'd rather just let him go because so much of the teams future success is determined by a player you can't rely on to take the mound every fifth day.

[lukevan]

My bet would be that we wouldn't be able to rely on CC taking the ball every fifth day either. Dude is probably gonna have some issues in the next couple of years with all the abuse from the last few seasons.

 

I wonder how many pitchers have actually made all their starts in the last, say, three years [looks at Ennder].

[Ennder]

I don't know about making all of their starts but when I last looked it was something like 8 pitchers in baseball have gone 200+ IP for 3 years in a row and something like 4 or 5 if you go 4 years in a row. The odds are against him staying fully healthy for the next 3 years even, much less 6 years. I generally have free time at work on Sundays so later today I can post up some numbers showing what to expect.

[JohnBriggs12]

He'll either get 3 years + an option at something like $16-17 million a year, or 4 years + option at somewhere around $15 million or just under per year.

 

Sheets made 31 starts and pitched 198 innings. The team won 18 of those 31 starts. 5 of the losses were by two runs or less. If he performs to that level for some team next year he'll be worth the $50-60 million they've paid, because that team will be going to the playoffs.

That was all before he tore a muscle near his elbow. I don't see teams giving him multiple years for $15-17 million per year. If he's banking on that, he could well end up accepting arbirtration from the Brewers, and trying FA next year. I just don't see any mention of Sheets at all in the rumors from other teams. Teams are very leery about him. Sure the Astros might be willing to go multiple years, but I'd think more in the $12-14 million range and Sheets might be willing to gamble on a healthy 2009 rather than accept that.

 

"The treatment of Sheets by fans has been almost criminal."

 

I think that's way overstated but how are fans supposed to treat a stud who isn't there in crunch time year after year?

[MNBrew]

"The treatment of Sheets by fans has been almost criminal."

 

I think that's way overstated but how are fans supposed to treat a stud who isn't there in crunch time year after year?

To piggyback on JB12's point, I think fans have a right to be disenchanted when the guy who heretofore has been the Ace all of a sudden forgets how to pitch like an Ace, which happened coincidentally right when CC was acquired. Sheets didn't pitch horribly the whole time and had a handful of really good starts. But most of his starts all of a sudden became mediocre to poor.

 

When the stud new acquisition (the reigning AL Cy Young winner) comes in and has a devastatingly great 2nd half, then your Ace-'til-now hardly shows any signs of living up to his own Ace billing for the whole 2nd half before finally getting hurt right before season's end, it's good cause for said disenchantment. Ben Sheets is a good guy and sometimes killer-good pitcher. But any skepticism about his long-term value and salary are quite sufficiently justified.

[fondybrewfan]

I think that's way overstated but how are fans supposed to treat a stud who isn't there in crunch time year after year?

We also found out, after the fact, that Sheets was pitching injured during a large part of the 2nd half so shouldn't that have some merit? CC risked his health in the 2nd half by pitching so much, but Ben also risked his health by pitching at all. It was a miracle he had as many good starts as he had.

[MNBrew]

I don't think anyone would question Sheets' heart, fondybrewfan, or his desire. He's been quite forthright about his love for playing for the Brewers, too. But I think it's also a fair point to state that, for whatever the reason -- injuries or whatever -- Sheets has never come close to coming through in the clutch like Sabathia did this year.

 

Any team offering Sheets multiple years should be looked at kinda funny given the late-season torn elbow deal. A one-year deal makes the most sense, or possibly a Kendall-like contract that vests each future year based on reaching playing and performance benchmarks.

[Oldcity]

But most of his starts all of a sudden became mediocre to poor.

That's not true at all. Ben's starts after CC's arrival:

 

6 innings 3 earned runs

5 innings 2 earned runs

7 innings 2 earned runs

5 1/3 innings 6 earned runs

6 innings 2 earned runs

9 innings 0 earned runs

6 2/3 3 earned runs

6 innings 5 earned runs

5 innings 2 earned runs

9 innings 0 earned runs

6 innings 5 earned runs

2 innings 1 earned run

2 1/3 innings 3 earned runs

 

I count three poor outings in there and five poor outings if you include his last two starts of the season. Definitely does not mean "most of his starts." It also wasn't "all of a sudden" after CC arrived, as Ben had two decent outings and one good one before a bad start after CC joined the Brewers.

 

I know simply looking at innings and earned runs isn't the best way, but his numbers after CC joined the team were 3.54 ERA, 61 Ks, 21 BBs, 1.2 WHIP. Certainly he was still a well above average starting pitcher during that time.

[Fatter than Joey]

CC joined the Brewers late in the season, probably when Ben starting to feel the effects of being over/misused.

 

It's really only a coincidence IMO -- I don't think Ben "got mad" that he wasn't our aciest anymore.

[TooLiveBrew]

how are fans supposed to treat a stud who isn't there in crunch time year after year?

 

This is bordering on ridiculous. This logic states that game 162 is more valuable than game 1. I can't even begin to wrap my mind around how certain player injuries & stats are 'clutch' & some 'aren't'. Aside from the myth that Stevo debunked, this 'Sheets was never there when his team needed him' is complete & 100% garbage. Fans need to get over their own petty/selfish/ill-conceived complaints & recognize the fact that there is absolutely no way the Brewers make the playoffs this past season without Sheets. *Gasp!* He was a crucial & irreplaceable part of a playoff run... dare I say... CLUTCH?!

[phxMILWfan]

Game 162 when win and your in, lose and you go gome... is more important than game 1. The same way a 1 game playoff for a playoff spot is more important than game 1. Hate to reference basketball here but every team has a guy that can give you 20 points a night. Even a losing team. That doesn't mean that guy is a star, it means he is the best player on a losing team. For years Sheets was the best player on a losing team. In my opinion, Sheets will never be the best player on a WINNING team. Thats what makes him the greatest #2 starter for any team, but less than ideal #1 starter.

[Tbadder]

This is a classic case when the contradictionis true. Game 1 is as important as game 162. But it is also true that 162 is mor important than game 1. It's all down to context.