Sheets watch (closed in deference to new thread)

[brwrsfan]

We still have to offer arby and I think the Brewers are fine with either decision. He either comes back for one more year, reasonably priced and probably remains a Type A free agent next year (if he can stay remotely healthy). Or he leaves and we get the 2 picks.

 

The only really bad spot would be him coming back and getting a major injury. We get no Sheets and possibly no picks for him.

[Tbadder]

And this is the reason that we need guys in the pen who can give starters like Sheets the 3 inning save. As pointed out here, you can't push pitch limits on a guy like Sheets. I think Sveum knew this. I hope Macha does.

[rluzinski]

I don't think Sheets is a 6 inning pitcher. He's certainly not a 130 pitch complete game kinda pitcher, though.

[joepepsi]

While I understand the stereotype that Sheets is injury prone, it really isn't true. In 8 seasons he's averaged just under 28 starts and 180 ip per season. I'm curious how many pitchers can match that over the same period? Halladay has average 28 starts, 197ip. Peavy, 28 starts, 157 ip (over last 7 years), Oswalt 30 starts. 202 ip. Zito is Ben's age and has averaged 34 starts, 214+ innings pitched. He also hasn't been any good for the last two years.

 

Anyway, my point is, among pitchers roughly his age who've been in the majors as long as he has, he compares pretty well as far as health goes. A non Brewer fan will look at his stats and see he's really only had one "lost" season, 2006. I think he'll get at least 5yr/$75 million from someone.

[JJHardy7]

While I understand the stereotype that Sheets is injury prone, it really isn't true. In 8 seasons he's averaged just under 28 starts and 180 ip per season. I'm curious how many pitchers can match that over the same period? Halladay has average 28 starts, 197ip. Peavy, 28 starts, 157 ip (over last 7 years), Oswalt 30 starts. 202 ip. Zito is Ben's age and has averaged 34 starts, 214+ innings pitched. He also hasn't been any good for the last two years.

 

You bring up an interesting point. What happens when you limit the years to the past 4 or so though and not a younger Sheets 8 years ago?

[Ennder]

Are the last 4 years more indicative of being injury prone than the previous 4 years though or are they just the most recent years? Is a pitcher who was healthy for 5 years and then missed all of 2008 more injury prone than one who missed a full season 6 years ago and has been healthy the last 5?

[joepepsi]

He still reminds me of Schilling. A couple injury years, then a run of healthy seasons and lookout.

 

Here's the thing: aren't 2005 and 2006 related to the same injury? Wasn't 2005 when he had surgery on the shoulder blade and 2006's DL stint a result of scar tissue build up from that surgery? And last year was a broken finger, wasn't it? I don't consider broken bones as qualifiers for an "injury prone" tag.

 

He was worked pretty hard in seasons 2-4. Having lighter loads for seasons 5-7, when he was still in his mid-20's may have saved his arm a bit. But it's worrisome he's injured his elbow now. Previous to that you could argue his injuries weren't career threatening or the type that could turn chronic. Except for 2006 when he was coming off the shoulder surgery, it's always been reasonable to expect him to be fully healthy every season. Now with the elbow problem I don't know.....

[DHonks]

Why is it that Benny is the only pitcher I've heard of to tear not one, but two muscles? Most tear labrums, rotator cuffs, UCL's, but I guess he at least tears things that can be fixed without surgery

[Ennder]

Yep joepepsi, Sheets has had one really major injury in his career and they tried to bring him back early from it which triggered the relapse.

[hauser42]

Brittle Ben will show up and the Stros will have wasted a ton of money on a player that will never play enough to help the team get over the hump

 

You mean like how he helped the 2008 Brewers 'get over the hump'? The concept that a player is or isn't 'out there when you need him' is silly, largely because "when" is completely arbitrary & basically means, 'whenever the fans think'.

 

 

Brittle Ben was a below average pitcher in the second half of the season. How did he help them over the hump?? After July 29 he had 3 wins and two of those games were shutous and the third was a 12-0 win. In his other starts after this his ERA was almost 6, those are close to Suppan numbers. We all know how much of a beating Suppan takes on this website for him not being able to get it done. Sure Sheets pitched when early for the team and got them wins, but when the team started to struggle the ace was suppose to stop loosing streaks. Sheets was not doing it, and once CC was there he was suppose help put together winning streaks, this also did not happen.

 

Injury prone is being hurt over a period time, major or non-major injuries. Paul Molitor was labeled this in his career, he always seem to get hurt and non of his injuries were major. Pauly lasted a long time as he became a DH and his body then held up.

[endaround]

So except for when Sheets was good he stunk?

[1992casey]

Can we lose the "Brittle Ben" moniker? It's getting repetitive. Also, it seems to me that the points remain the same without the name-calling.

[Ennder]

You really have no legs to stand on here hauser42, I don't get your irrational hatrid of Sheets.

 

Sheets second half ERA was 3.46 and his second half OPS agaisnt was .690.

 

From the all star game until Sept 6th Sheets had a 2.77 ERA with a .621 OPS against and then trying to pitch through the arm soreness led to a bad final 3 games. Even with those final 3 starts included he was well above average.

 

Even using your arbitrary point that tries to make him look as bad as he can he had a 3.55 ERA and .688 OPS against during that time and had no run support. We scored 1, 0, 2, 2, 3, 3 runs in his losses and he allowed 0, 0, 0 runs in the 3 wins. I mean seriously we all get that you don't like Sheets and you'll make stuff up to try to make him look bad so why even bother doing it at this point. If you want to have people respect your opinion at least try to be semi objective instead of letting your obvious bias cloud the posts.

[twobrewers]

Jon Heyman thinks the Astros for 2 years and 28 million.

 

I would think at those numbers - the Brewers would have to pursue him. One healthy season of Sheets is worth 20 million in today's market.

 

Unless of course, Heyman knows/heard that Sheets' injury is more serious than I thought...

[DHonks]

actually Hauser, my source with the club has said Sheets was hurting back in early July. So when we all saw his curve lose some effectiveness in June, July, Aug, and Sept, it would make sense that he was likely bothered by it then, but told it likely wouldn't get worse

[Diskono]

If 2 years/$28m is really the best he can get elsewhere, I'd happily offer 2y/$30m, with some IP-based incentives tacked on. That just seems like a really good deal, for whoever gets him.

[rluzinski]

Instead of constantly arguing about what injury prone means or how severe Sheets' injuries have been, let's just focus on what really matters. How many innings pitched would an average 30 year old starting pitcher average over 3 seasons? What is our guess for Sheets? Here's my guess:

 

Ave. 30 Year Old: 180 IP/year

Ben Sheets: 160 IP/year

 

So, I see Sheets' injury history as costing his next team 20 innings or about 3 starts more than the average 30 year old. How do you see it?

[TheCrew07]

i think that's a realistic guess rluz.

[Oldcity]

I'd be shocked if two years/28 mil is the best Sheets can get. I'd be almost sure someone would offer three years, and I even think four years is likely. Some team will be desperate enough to take that huge risk.

 

If two years/28 mil is the best he gets on the open market, the Brewers had sure better match/top that offer.

[JimH5]

Ave. 30 Year Old: 180 IP/year
Ben Sheets: 160 IP/year

From his age 27 through 29 seasons, Sheets has actually averaged less than 149 IP per year. So even to suggest 160 is to say you think he'll pitch more in the next three years than he's pitched in the last three.

I think that's a stretch.

[clancyphile]

If 2 years/$28m is really the best he can get elsewhere, I'd happily offer 2y/$30m, with some IP-based incentives tacked on. That just seems like a really good deal, for whoever gets him.

I'd go three years, $36 million.

 

The extra year may work - even at a lower price.

[edod]

If the Yanks lose out on CC, I would be surprised if they didn't blow everybody else of the water in years and money for Sheets, even after Pavano. He's still the second best arm on the free market and their still run by a Steinbrenner.

[Ennder]

Ave. 30 Year Old: 180 IP/year

Ben Sheets: 160 IP/year

 

From his age 27 through 29 seasons, Sheets has actually averaged less than 149 IP per year. So even to suggest 160 is to say you think he'll pitch more in the next three years than he's pitched in the last three.

 

I think that's a stretch.

 

 

I'd disagree with that simply because of the nature of the injuries. He had one major injury that bridged two seasons and cost the majority of those innings. I think what Russ posted is probably pretty accurate. The same way I'd take the under on Zambrano reaching 180 IP/Year from here on out even though he has been mostly heathy in his career, his arm is breaking down from all the abuse.

[rluzinski]

Ave. 30 Year Old: 180 IP/year

Ben Sheets: 160 IP/year

 

From his age 27 through 29 seasons, Sheets has actually averaged less than 149 IP per year. So even to suggest 160 is to say you think he'll pitch more in the next three years than he's pitched in the last three.

 

I think that's a stretch.

 

 

 

And I think that only looking at the previous 3 years and assuming something less is a poor way of projecting future innings. There are a lot of other things to consider, IMO.

[JimH5]

Is there a comparable guy in recent history who you could point to, who was similar to Sheets and his injury history, who later turned in the 160 IP average for 3 years?

 

I'd be more willing to listen to your side if you could show a guy who missed so much time, and then later in his career maintained a medium level of health & success.