Sheets watch (closed in deference to new thread)

[Fatter than Joey]

Do they ever do a player option as an incentive? For example, if Ben gets 200IP in 2009, then the player option kicks in for 2010.

 

I think I understand what you are talking about -- if so, this is exactly the sort of option Kendall got -- His option got picked up once he made something like his 130th start.

 

So I am sure that there is a way, that if Ben made X starts or Y IP he could have an option get picked up.

[Fear The Chorizo]

The only way a three year deal at a significantly reduced dollar amount makes sense for Sheets and his agent is if he is truly concerned about his arm/injury issues. If he was confident that he could start the 2009 season 100% with no lingering effects of that elbow injury, he should take a 1 (or at most) 2 year deal to prove any doubters wrong and cash in as the top free agent pitcher next offseason. taking a 3 year deal basically puts his next free agent period on the wrong side of his pitching career, which means that he's lost his opportunity for his biggest payday.

 

If the arm/injury concerns are that significant, as much as I'd love to have him pitch for the Brewers I probably wouldn't want him signed. Earlier in this thread Russ posted that if the over/under on Sheets IP in 2009, bet on the over. For a team like the Brewers, what if the over/under on Sheets IP in 2009 is 125? Is that enough innings from Sheets to risk burning up payroll, when roughly 1/2 of the starts Sheets would have made if healthy have to be replaced with AAAA washouts and bullpen destroyers?

[rluzinski]

There have been dozens of players that have signed or continue to seek a multiyear deal in this soft market. The fact that Sheets is one of those players proves little, IMO. I also doubt that Sheets will get 3 guaranteed years but it's not surprising to me that they are publically seeking it. There are many notable players still seeking more than a team is willing to give. That's why they are still on the market. There are many notable players who don't have teams in a bidding war for their services. Are they all desperate? Should they all accept a 1 year deal and hope the market improves next year What am I missing about Sheets' current situation that makes him unique to everyone else waiting the market out?

 

And if Sheets was paid proportional to the 125 IP expectation, have no problem with that, in itself. I don't think Sheets and the Brewers could show any less interest in each other, short of calling each other bad names, though.

[1992casey]

if so, this is exactly the sort of option Kendall got -- His option got picked up once he made something like his 130th start

 

I believe the industry frequently calls it a "vesting option." Kendall's option vested after 110 starts. His 2009 pay increased with 120 and 130 starts.

 

There were also performance bonuses increasing his 2008 pay based on both games and starts.

[PrinceFielder28]

How long is he going to hold out? I think Doug should offer him a 1 year deal plus incentives.

[Roderick]

What am I missing about Sheets' current situation that makes him unique to everyone else waiting the market out?

Not unique (only one other remaining FA starter is a type A), but Sheets is going to cost a team signing him a draft pick. Whether it is a smoke screen, it seems like you are seeing quite a few GMs saying that is a big issue and they want to hold on to their picks.

[Fear The Chorizo]

What am I missing about Sheets' current situation that makes him unique to everyone else waiting the market out?

 

Everyone else waiting the market out ended last season without having an injured pitching arm. The other starting pitchers who were free agents that are close to Sheets' ability when he's healthy have been signed quite awhile ago. And I don't think waiting this market out is all of a sudden going to lead to gm's forking out money they didn't have in December and won't have anytime soon. The market is basically set (see Pettite and Garland signing 1 year deals for much less than they made last season), it's the market that's waiting on the free agents left to wake up and realize what their value actually is if teams like the Yankees aren't offering the contracts.

[fondybrewfan]

MILWAUKEE -- At every winter stop, a Brewers fan would ask general manager Doug Melvin the same question, and it was usually the first one asked.

Is there any chance the Brewers will look at re-signing Ben Sheets?

 

The answer, every time, is the same.

 

"I don't anticipate so," Melvin says, just as he did Saturday at "Brewers On Deck."

 

Then comes the caveat: "I don't see it happening at this time, at least."

 

The Brewers' official position remains that they have not closed the door on Sheets and his agent, Casey Close. But the team is unwilling to give the 30-year-old right-hander the multi-year deal he is seeking, and might not even offer enough guaranteed money in a one-year deal to pique Sheets' interest.

 

Proof of Melvin's open-door policy came just after the new year, when he reached out to Close. The call was prompted by two Boston Red Sox signings. First they signed Brad Penny to a one-year deal that pays a $5 million base salary with incentives that could add another $3 million. Then they finalized a one-year contract with John Smoltz that guarantees $5.5 million and could pay as much as $10 million with incentives.

 

Melvin wanted to know whether Sheets and Close were open to a similar offer, and it appears they were not. According to Melvin, the men have not spoken since. Close has not responded to multiple inquiries from MLB.com this winter.

 

Sheets' representatives reportedly tried to allay clubs' concerns about his injury history by releasing new medical information last week. If that's the case, they did not send that information to the Brewers.

 

That led Melvin to this conclusion:

 

"It doesn't appear that Ben will be back," Melvin said.

 

Yet it is tempting to keep in mind that Sheets has pitched for the Brewers his entire career, and could be tempted to return if he does not find any attractive offers elsewhere. In Milwaukee he would be the team's No. 1 starter and would add depth to a rotation that currently has precious little. Brewers officials say they want to preserve payroll flexibility to make a move once the season starts, but the opportunity to land Sheets at a bargain price could be tempting.

 

 

He was the team's first-round Draft pick in 1999, attained Olympic glory the following summer and was in the Majors by 2001, a rookie on the National League All-Star team. It was the first of Sheets' four All-Star appearances in a Brewers uniform, including a nod to start the 2008 Game.

In all, Sheets pitched 1,428 innings in 221 Brewers starts, third most in franchise history. He holds the franchise record with 1,206 strikeouts, and with the departure of Geoff Jenkins during the 2007-2008 offseason, Sheets was the team's longest-tenured player.

 

Yet there were issues of durability that led the Brewers and Sheets to part ways. He was on the disabled list five times in the last four seasons. Sheets avoided the DL in 2008, but he was forced to miss Milwaukee's first postseason series in 26 years because of a torn flexor tendon in his right elbow. He was 13-9 with a 3.09 ERA in 31 starts.

 

Despite the injury at the end of the season, the Brewers decided to offer Sheets arbitration this winter, a move partially aimed at securing a compensatory Draft pick should Sheets -- a Type A free agent -- sign elsewhere. Had he accepted, Sheets would have likely been granted a modest raise from his $11 million salary last season.

 

Instead he tested the open market. The Yankees had interest in Sheets before they re-signed Andy Pettitte, leaving the Texas Rangers as Sheets' most likely destination. Sheets has a home near Dallas, and he met with Rangers officials last week. He has a staunch supporter there in new Rangers pitching coach Mike Maddux, who used to fill the same role in Milwaukee.

 

"Obviously, the reason he is still unsigned is because of his history," Rangers president Nolan Ryan said this week. "All ballclubs are a little cautious in their actions right now. I'm sure he'll settle in with somebody."

 

Adam McCalvy is a reporter for MLB.com. This story was not subject to the approval of Major League Baseball or its clubs.

 

http://milwaukee.brewers....mp;fext=.jsp&c_id=mil

 

EDIT: Please remember to provide links to any material that comes from elsewhere on the net.

[SeriesFinale]

It just seems so strange to me that he would pick what would likely be a bargain 1 or 2 year contract with the Rangers over what I presume would be a very similar deal with the Brewers, who he's been with since Day One and who he would seem to have a much better chance at pitching in the playoffs this year with.

 

I guess the source of his obvious reluctance to come back is the $1,000,000 question (maybe literally!)

[rluzinski]

Everyone else waiting the market out ended last season without having an injured pitching arm. The other starting pitchers who were free agents that are close to Sheets' ability when he's healthy have been signed quite awhile ago.

 

I was contesting the theory that Sheets holding out for a multiyear deal was somehow proof that he was hurt. There are plenty of other guys doing the same thing.

[endaround]

Easy to see how Sheets would be insulted being treated like Penny (so injured the Dodgers wouldn't pick up his option and totally ineffective last year) or Smoltz (a pitcher in his 40s who pitched less than 50 innings last season)

[PeaveyFury]

Easy to see how Sheets would be insulted being treated like Penny (so injured the Dodgers wouldn't pick up his option and totally ineffective last year) or Smoltz (a pitcher in his 40s who pitched less than 50 innings last season)

 

But that completely overlooks the fact that while they have similar injury concerns, Sheets is the only one of the three that costs a signing team a first or 2nd round draft pick.

[JohnBriggs12]

Look it's not just the player's ego, it's the agent's too. The agents totally misread the marketplace. It was as good as it was going to get in November. It's deteriorated since then. Even the Yankees were able to wait on Pettitte and do a reasonable deal.

 

The only hope the agents of the remaining guys is if they wait into March and hope an injury will prompt a team to panic and push up the price a little. Sheets and his agent should have taken the arby offer. It's all about saving face now. He's probably not looking at Milwaukee because it will be brought up over and over that he could have taken much more if he'd accepted arby. All the guys who turned down arby are being hurt by teams not wanting to give up a pick and money. If Sheets were healthy, he'd take a one year deal wouldn't he to prove he's healthy? That he wants more than one year is a sign he doesn't think he can make it through a year.

 

How about Brian Shouse? He can't find any job anywhere apparently either. It's almost laughable that he thought he could get a 2 year deal.

 

All I have to say to the players is "welcome to the real world boys".

 

Ryan Braun took some heat for signing his long term deal. In retrospect, he may have outsmarted everybody.

[RU Rah Rah]

Everyone else waiting the market out ended last season without having an injured pitching arm. The other starting pitchers who were free agents that are close to Sheets' ability when he's healthy have been signed quite awhile ago.

 

I was contesting the theory that Sheets holding out for a multiyear deal was somehow proof that he was hurt. There are plenty of other guys doing the same thing.

I also don't buy into the multiyear deal = injury argument. I mean, if you knew you were completely healthy, wouldn't you want a nice, fat multiyear deal, too?

[Fear The Chorizo]

I also don't buy into the multiyear deal = injury argument. I mean, if you knew you were completely healthy, wouldn't you want a nice, fat multiyear deal, too?

 

I sure would, but if NOBODY'S offering close to that because they don't think you're completely healthy, why not take a 1-2 year deal to prove them wrong, and still be young enough to get a nice, fat multiyear deal the next offseason?

[Gobias Industries]

Look it's not just the player's ego, it's the agent's too. The agents totally misread the marketplace. It was as good as it was going to get in November. It's deteriorated since then. Even the Yankees were able to wait on Pettitte and do a reasonable deal.

 

The only hope the agents of the remaining guys is if they wait into March and hope an injury will prompt a team to panic and push up the price a little. Sheets and his agent should have taken the arby offer. It's all about saving face now. He's probably not looking at Milwaukee because it will be brought up over and over that he could have taken much more if he'd accepted arby. All the guys who turned down arby are being hurt by teams not wanting to give up a pick and money. If Sheets were healthy, he'd take a one year deal wouldn't he to prove he's healthy? That he wants more than one year is a sign he doesn't think he can make it through a year.

 

How about Brian Shouse? He can't find any job anywhere apparently either. It's almost laughable that he thought he could get a 2 year deal.

 

All I have to say to the players is "welcome to the real world boys".

 

Ryan Braun took some heat for signing his long term deal. In retrospect, he may have outsmarted everybody.

I think you hit the nail on the head for why Sheets is reluctant to come back here. Just a huge miscalculation by the agents of many of the FA's, as you stated. Great post JB12.

[rluzinski]

1.There's no reason to assume that next year's off season market will favor the players anymore than this year.

 

2. Any pitcher runs a significant risk of injury, which is why guaranteed money can be so appealing.

 

I can buy that Sheets is willing to make less per year on a multiyear deal, because he's concerned about his long term health more than the average pitcher. I just think the theory that his multiyear demands is evidence that his arm is being held up only by the last attached tenden is quite a stretch. For those in agreement with that theory, what do you think his IP over/under is? 25? 50?

[Invader3K]

I think the real question is: How likely is it that any team that signs Sheets to a multi-year deal right now ends up regretting it (unless it's exceptionally cheap)? I'd say more than likely.

[strawbossisevil]

Yeah, it must really must grind Sheet's gears that had he accepted Arby he would have been locked in for 11 million or more. And our team would have gladly paid it. Now when he comes back looking for a similar deal, he only gets offered 5 million plus incentives.

 

I could see how he'd be upset thinking, well you would have offered me this back in November. But now you are taking advantage of this poor market and won't even consider offering me the same thing.

 

But yeah, that neglects the fact that the fault truly lies with Sheets and his agent.

 

I wonder though, if Sheets had accepted his arby. Would we still have signed Hoffman? Would the base salary for the team been just a bit higher? Who knows.

[Invader3K]

My assumption is that if Sheets had been re-signed, we would not have signed Hoffman. Either that or Melvin would have really pursued the Cameron trade with the Yankees pretty hard to make some salary room.

[TooLiveBrew]

I think the real question is: How likely is it that any team that signs Sheets to a multi-year deal right now ends up regretting it (unless it's exceptionally cheap)? I'd say more than likely.

 

I'd say pretty unlikely. You get an elite talent at well-below recent market value. I mean, take a look at the deal Burnett got & compare it to a hypothetical 3-yr. deal or so to Sheets. The better contract is the one to Sheets, and it's not even close.

[RyDogg66]

Considering that at the all star break Sheets was headed for a 5 year deal for at least 75 million in total I think a 3 yr deal for 21-27 million total would be a real steal. 2 for 15 or 16 even better.

[trwi7]

Don't have to worry about getting a 4th round pick for Sheets.

 

According to the Basic Agreement, and confirmed by a top Major League Baseball official, once the Yankees signed CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett and Mark Teixeira, they had signed their quota of Type A or Type B free agents under the collectively bargained rules established by management and the Players Association, Bloom wrote.

All three were Type A free agents who played for other teams last season aside from the Yankees. The Yankees could re-sign their own Type A or Type B free agents without it affecting the quota.

Under the rules, "if there are from 39 to 62 [Type A and B] players [during a given offseason], no team can sign more than three."

[sbrylski]

Odd, because everywhere I've looked listed more than 62 Type A or B free agents this offseason. EDIT: And the article confirms that, but implies that the wording of the CBA suggests when there are more than 62 it doesn't just go to a quota of 4, but rather the league and the union have the ability to adjust the quota, which did not happen this offseason.

[naivin]

Considering that at the all star break Sheets was headed for a 5 year deal for at least 75 million in total I think a 3 yr deal for 21-27 million total would be a real steal. 2 for 15 or 16 even better.

That's fine, but you can't just pretend what happened after the AS break didn't happen. Had he not had the elbow problem, clearly he would have a uniform by now, and that probably would be a steal. But he did have the elbow problem (and by most accounts, still does), to go along with the past shoulder problem. That is not a good combination.

 

Considering that a few years ago Ken Griffey was considered the best player in baseball, I think a 3-yr deal for 21-27 million would be a real steal...Doesn't work that way. A lot of time has passed, and a lot has happened since then.