Sheets watch (closed in deference to new thread)

[1992casey]

Earlier in this thread in post #451, Sam did post rules from the CBA and his interpretation of those rules.

 

Is there anyway we could add that post to the designated threads list or at least create a new thread and have it pinned to the top for the rest of the off-season? I'm pretty sure that question comes up in every thread about a type A free agent.

I've added it to this thread: Transaction Rumors / Proposals FAQ ... plus site FAQ additions: trade, waiver, free agency rules (reply #13).

 

That thread is stickied at the top of the Transactions Forum. There's also a link to it in the Resource FAQ, stickied at the top of this forum.

[crewcrazy]

Well it would stink only getting a 2nd rounder from Texas for Sheets, but I guess it beats only getting a 2nd rounder from the Mets (K-Rod rates higher than Sheets, IIRC) while also seeing a wildcard rival getting much better. Seeing him go the AL would make it easier to root for him to succeed on his new team...it'll be interesting to see just how close he is to signing with Texas, and how long of a deal he'll take if he does end up there. Texas doesn't seem like the ideal place to go to prove your free agent worth on a short-term deal.

[silversurferr]

Pay Sheets. Bottom line is that the Brewers are a much better team with him than without him. I understand if he doesn't want to come back, but stop the crap about we cannot pay the extra money. Record ticket sales already this offseason. Attanasio has been great, and I realize these are tough times, but I am tired of the excuses. Maxed out at $80 to 85 million? Where were they going to get the money for Sabathia? Also, Sabathia is an injury risk, probably more so than many top starters. (He led baseball in pitches thrown last year.) Get it done.

[Invader3K]

Well, like it or not, Attanasio has been quoted very recently saying they don't have any money left to add a starting pitcher. We can argue that they do have the money, but I don't think he's lying just to surprise us when they do sign someone...that's not his M.O. I don't like it, but I've accepted the fact we're likely going into the season with the pitching staff "as is." Maybe others around here should start to take a similar view, rather than re-hashing the same arguments over and over, frankly.

[rluzinski]

Naaa, they'll pick up some crap heap starting pitcher just before the season starts. He'll be the long man out of the pen and end up racking up a 5.5 ERA in 120 IP, because of injuries. Seems to me that the Brewers would have been better off spending Hoffman's money on a mediocre starting pitcher but everyone's obsessed with closers. I think Hoffman is a decent relief pitcher but he's going to have about a forth the innings a starting pitcher would have.

 

Water under the bridge now.

[trwi7]

Well, like it or not, Attanasio has been quoted very recently saying they don't have any money left to add a starting pitcher.

That's not what he said. What he said was if they sign a starting pitcher now, they won't have the flexibility to add anything during the season.

 

rluzinski wrote:

---

Naaa, they'll pick up some crap heap starting pitcher

Hilarious typo. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

 

rluzinski wrote:

---

Seems to me that the Brewers would have been better off spending Hoffman's money on a mediocre starting pitcher but everyone's obsessed with closers.

That's what I don't get. Why spend money on a closer when you have this rotation? Because honestly, how much are you going to really need a closer with this rotation?

[Ennder]

Because honestly, how much are you going to really need a closer with this rotation?

 

Soria had 42 saves and 3 BS last year and Valverde had 44 saves and 7 BS and neither of those teams had SP that are any better than what we have now, so my guess is around 45-50 times.

[Invader3K]

You could just as well make the opposite argument and say "What good is a decent starting rotation if you have no closer to finish the games?"

 

I agree that we'll probably see some sort of "scrap heap" type acquisition or two before the start of the season.

[edod]

http://www.star-telegram....sports/story/1162289.html

 

According to this article the Rangers want him for no more than 2/16. Normally, I'd say that has to be a steal for any team in this league, but the same article also mentioned that his injury is the same as the one that kept Jason Jennings out for 16 months. Ugh. I'm glad I don't have to make such decisions.

[rluzinski]

You could just as well make the opposite argument and say "What good is a decent starting rotation if you have no closer to finish the games?"

 

Hoffman will log about 50 innings. A mediocre starting pitcher will log somewhere around 200 IP. Let's say that the closer's average appearance comes in situations double the leverage of starters. In other words, there is more on the line, in terms of winning and losing, so every run saved by a closer is twice as valuable. Hoffman still has to be twice as better as his alternative, than the starting pitcher is to his replacement.

 

Does that make any sense? To say it in one sentence.... Every run saved by a closer (over his replacement) is roughly twice as important as the starter's runs saved but the starter has 4 times as many innings to save runs. It's tough for more closers to match the value of even an average starting pitcher as a result.

 

Of course, I don't really want Melvin signing some old, average starting pitcher to a 3-4 year deal but if a 1 or 2 year deal had been out there, I would have preferred that over Hoffman. As it stands, we will see a very bad pitcher log a significant number of innings.

[phxMILWfan]

I look at it more along the lines of the drop off between a particular player vs another player available. I think there is a much bigger drop off from Hoffman to McClung/Villanueva/another FA reliever vs the drop off at starter from a potentially injured Sheets who may not be available to start the year, more prone to injury, another starting pitcher we spend 5-6 million on compared to starting McClung. Hope that makes sense. We needed to sign Hoffman. We don't need to spend on a starting pitcher.

I think we will see real value when some of these FA starters realize its about time for pitchers and catcher to report and they don't have a team yet. I think Melvin is playing this well.

[RU Rah Rah]

From Richard Durrett's Dallas Morning News blog today (Sat. 1/24):

 

"A few things about Ben Sheets, who was in town Wednesday for a dinner with the Rangers that included owner Tom Hicks. Sheets then came out to Rangers Ballpark in Arlington and had a long toss session with pitching coach Mike Maddux. There's no doubt the Rangers have interest. And it certainly appears they'll jump in the pool with an offer some time soon."

[KCBrewerfan34]

Rotowordl has an interesting blurb about Sheets today, not sure this injury is something that won't need surgery. Wow, that injury probably cost Sheets $40-$60 million!!!

 

With the remaining money we have we have to have a healthy arm, I guess that means the Sheets ship has sailed. Anyone disagree?

 

 

 

GO BREW

[Invader3K]

The Sheets ship sailed quite a while ago, in my mind.

 

We used to always hear "Well, at least his injuries aren't arm related." Well, he now has a pretty serious arm injury...I guess I'm surprised he didn't go ahead and have surgery immediately after the season if it's that bad.

[BrewCrewForever]

I have finally come to the realization that Ben Sheets career in Milwaukee is done. I thought most of this offseason there was a chance, but all the comments lately from Doug coupled with the interest the Rangers/Mets/Yankees have shown in Ben, it's over. Sad, but true. Sheets is not even an option on my mind anymore.

[PeaveyFury]

Here's the actual blurb from Rotoworld that was mentioned:

According to the Fort Worth Star-Telegram, concerns over Ben Sheets' right elbow could ultimately prevent the Rangers from offering the All-Star pitcher a contract.

The Rangers are currently seeking more information on Sheets' torn flexor tendon. Jason Jennings had a similar problem in 2007 and early 2008. In both instances he eventually needed surgery. According to the Star-Telegram, "the likelihood that an agreement will be reached by Monday, if at all this week, is waning."

 

http://www.rotoworld.com/...spx?sport=MLB&id=3164

 

Clearly, if teams are under the impression that he's going to need surgery at some point, that certainly explains Sheets' struggle to get any sort of contract.

[Ennder]

That doesn't really say anything is wrong with his arm, just that they want more recent medical records because they got burned by Jennings with something similar. I still think if the arm was as large a concern as people think it is he would have just taken arbitration. Makes no sense to try to go free agent if they know something is wrong with his arm.

[endaround]

Yep, and if the Brewers were worried they wouldn't have offered arbitration.

[BrewCrewForever]

If only Sheets and his agent would have been smart enough to accept the arbitration offer from Milwaukee. He would be better off and so would our rotation. I guess it's just water under the bridge now.

[rluzinski]

If only Melvin had known about the Jennings injury. Then he would have known not to offer Sheets arbitration. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

 

I don't blame any team for being very cautious with Sheets. That doesn't mean we should be jumping to conclusions, though. If the IP over/under for Sheets is 1 for 2009, I'll take the over.

[KCBrewerfan34]

Sheets will be lucky to get more than Smoltz did, probably will be incentive laden and Sheets should fire his agent, wow what a miscalculation!!!!!

[clancyphile]

Hmm... you know, there may still be a way to get Sheets back to Milwaukee.

 

Hear me out on this, please...

 

Offer him a three-year deal:

2009: $8 million, with a $2 million bonus for 175 IP, and another $2 million for 200 IP

2010: same as 2009

2011: $10 million, with the same bonuses

 

Add in a clause that says that if he gets the bonuses for 200 IP in all three years, the following option is vested:

2012: $15 million

2013: $15 million

2014: $15 million

[ILuvDaBush]

And when he attempts to press it this year because of MIL's fans' incessant boos, and then must have surgery missing all of '09 and most of '10, and then has 120IP of 4.50 ball in '11, we're on the hook for $26M for that. Then again, when he puts up Harden (CHC) numbers over those three years for $32M, and then knowing we have him for another 3 years at $45M.... Again, it's a good thing I don't have to make such decisions.

 

But arm injury...Ben Sheets....big contract. What are the scariest mix of words in any Brewerfan's lexicon. Instead:

Aardsma, David

Aaron, Henry

...........

[rluzinski]

I don't even think I'd consider a three year deal for Sheets. Sheets is finding it tough to even get a reasonable two year deal at this point.

[adamb100]

At this point you gotta wonder if Sheets is kicking himself for not taking arby.