Sheets watch (closed in deference to new thread)

[TheCrew07]

As far as Yo being injury prone goes... Yo didn't get hurt throwing, he got hurt by Fielder in my opinion, and I firmly believe that. Also, with that torn cartiledge in the knee he still would have made 30 starts.

 

While Sheets hasn't had a major injury, I find the notion that he's not injury prone puzzling at best, he's the very definition of it. In the end why he wasn't on the mound only matters if you're trying to predict future performance, regardless of injury you aren't helping the team on the DL, doesn't matter if it's a broken leg or blister. He's gotten hurt every year since 2004, he's not unlucky anymore, sooner or later all of these minor/nagging injuries are going to lead to something big. It's time to quit arguing about injury severity when the point is really injury frequency...

 

Would he earn his contract if he only pitched an average of 140 innings with good perphirals? Yea probably on the market a solid argument could be made that would be case. However, if the Brewers are signing any FA pitcher they need to be very comfortable in getting 200 innings a year out of the guy. Suppan's value to the Brewers is that he'll take the ball every 5th day, if that doesn't happen in 09 or 10 the Suppan signing will look horrible in a hurry. Burnette? No thanks.

 

Sheets' absence has directly contributed to all 3 major Brewer slides over the last 4 seasons, nor did he pitch this post season, so it's not a stretch for people to say that he's never there when the team needs him. I wouldn't go that far, it's a tad extremist in my opinion, but I also said going into the playoffs I didn't trust him even he's healthy and that I would rather have Sabathia, Yo, Bush than any other combination of pitchers on the roster. I guess never have trusted Ben... he's not someone I feel good about, I'm always waiting for him to leave a start early, or waiting for him to groove that fastball that sets up the Brewers to lose 3-1 because the bottom of the order is even more horrible when he's pitching. He's always been great statistically, and I had the pleasure of being at 2 of his best games in 2004, and even though I've defended him against the "Teddy Sheets" crap for years now with my friends and family, I've just never felt good about the Brewers chances of winning when he's on the mound.

 

As far as the abuse point... that's a stretch. If he pitches an average of 15 less pitches every game does he stay healthy, or does it delay the inevitable until the end of September? The whole "Yost ruined Sheets" notion is a very slippery slope to me, when there's not conclusive evidence about what causes pitching injuries... it's not like he's fine one day, and the next day he's broke... it's more likely the tissue simply wears down over time, in which case we're talking about delaying the inevitable. If a good starting pitcher shouldn't throw 100-115 pitches every time out where does it stop? Baseball hasn't changed so much that a team still doesn't need to get 6+ innings from a starting pitcher, there simply aren't enough roster spots to support enough pitchers for anything less. In the Brewers case, with the uneven perfomance out of the pen, going all in for the playoffs (which I never agreed with), it made sense for them to ride their best players as far as they could take them. The Crew won the wild card by 1 game, which games would any of us go back now and pull Sheets knowing 1 bad inning from a reliever would have put us in a 1 game playoff?

[Ennder]

why he wasn't on the mound only matters if you're trying to predict future performance

 

But we are trying to predict future performance so of course it does matter. I won't go into it again but people way overestimate the health of the average pitcher. Most pitchers do no go anywhere near 200 IP on a year in year out basis like people seem to think.

 

If a good starting pitcher shouldn't throw 100-115 pitches every time out where does it stop? Baseball hasn't changed so much that a team still doesn't need to get 6+ innings from a starting pitcher, there simply aren't enough roster spots to support enough pitchers for anything less

 

Like I said Sheets was at the top of the list as one of the pitchers who was being abused the most in the league. This after 3 partial years in a row? Do you think this is a good plan? It isn't the 6-7 IP games that bothered me it was leaving him out there for the 8th and 9th a bunch for no real good reason. It was putting him out there for 100+ pitches in back to back games AFTER he complained about some arm soreness. Wouldn't you think that they should have been babying Sheets and Parra this season? Both of them probably had 170-200 IP in them at best given their histories and Yost just is too bone headed to understand this.

[JJHardy7]

Yost just is too bone headed to understand this.

 

I agree with your point for the most part Ennder, but I don't agree with this. I'd imagine Yost talks to the trainers and evaluate each situation. If he doesn't, yes he's not smart. If he did and the trainers ok'd him, that's a problem. I'm not a big Sheets guy at all, but there's no way in hell the guy wouldn't take the ball. I don't think I've ever said he was a pansy or anything like that and given his comments about his injuries before the season he's taking the ball. Is that Yost's fault? I really don't think so. I do agree with you Ennder with Parra. I don't know if it was that there weren't other options or what the deal was, but he was worn down a bit. I really do worry about that with Yo next year and I think sometimes thoughts that 'hey we have Yo as our ace if nothing happens' aren't true. Yo isn't going to be able to start every game next year with big innings IMO and not have a negative impact on potential injury/hitting the wall situations.

[Ennder]

In my opinion Yost pushed Sheets because they didn't plan on re-signing him and they just hoped his arm held up for it. Sheets was 8th in baseball in AVG_PAP per start and that number is thrown off by a couple starts he left early with physical issues. Without those he is probably sitting 5th or 6th ahead or behind Zambrano. Is that how you treat a pitcher who you are worried about healthwise?

 

Sure isn't how I would treat him.

[TheCrew07]

Ennder you're still missing the point, SHEETS IS INJURY PRONE by any definition of injury prone. That's it, and that's all people have been trying to say. People are talking about past performance and you keep going to the future... the "well it's only been minor injuries" card. That may be true, but an avalanche of little injuries later the guy is still injury prone, and he'll still be injury prone in the future, because his past injury history is crappy. You might believe in "luck", I don't, and after 2 years I've grown weary of being told it's "bad luck" when does bad luck actually become a negative trend? After how many years? Maybe it's just me but I grew up believing in the military's saying "Once is an accident, Twice is a coincidence, the Third time it's enemy action". I've taken that same philosophy and applied it to sports, whether it's what my players are doing, aren't doing, or how often they are getting injured. There isn't going to be a third instance of any particular issue without a discussion taking place, the third time something happens it's shame on me.

 

Growing up around sports some guys just aren't made to be healthy and some never do enough to get their bodies in shape enough to handle the rigors, and everyone is different, from Cappy, to Bush, to Sabathia, to David Wells... In my opinion all the evidence points towards the dam bursting for Sheets at some point. Maybe he gets a little bit more serious about fitness (not that he isn't, just making a point), but in general MLB pitchers are not the fittest athletes in the world which in my opinion combined with violent unnatural movements doesn't exactly paint a rosey picture of any pitcher's ability to stay healthy.

 

I never said all MLB starters do go 200 innings, I wouldn't make a claim that outrageous, it wasn't my point at all. My point was if the Brewers are going to spend 15% or more of the payroll on a player, they can't miss, not even by 75% because all pitchers are the DL are equally useless at that point in time. The have to hit the signing out of the park, because there is no way Suppan is worth 1/9 of the payroll to be a 4 or 5 if he's on the DL, and it's an uphill climb to sell me on any one player being worth 25% of the payroll to participate in only 75% of his potential starts.

 

Again, no I don't believe you treat a pitcher in their prime like you do a young arm building up strength in the middle of the injury nexus. There is no way the Brewers could afford Sheets to only pitch 170 innings after having Yo go down as the pen was on the edge of being overworked until Sabathia was acquired, and after that happened there was simply no way they wouldn't try to maximize the return for this season. Even if a pitcher in his prime would miss an entire year the following year you push them as far as they can go, in this case for as long as they can go to reach to playoffs. Once the Brewers made the move, there was no going back, and we can't have it both ways... I was generous taking 15 pitches from every start just for the sake of argument, but it was really more like 20 pitches from 4 or 5 different starts, which is equivalent to one good start. We aren't talking about being run up to 130 pitches for multiple starts in a row either. It's obvious you aren't going to accept that Yost wasn't the only one making decisions about Sheets health, but I know it to be true. I don't have any connections to the Brewers, but I do to other professional franchises/colleges and while the coach/manager may have the ultimate say, his opinions are based largely on what the training staff tells him, and to a much smaller degree what the player tells him. To me this no different than the complaining about Sabathia going deep into the one game when he had an extra days rest... like those 20 pitches were going to cost us the season?

 

PAP is bunk, if you choose to except it, who am I tell to you what to believe, but there is no way you're going to convince me that 100 to 200 pitches max over a course of 80% the season was the straw that broke the camel's back. Again all PAP does is penalize the best players in the game because they are durable and effective... if you spend time on the DL or you suck, you simply aren't going to throw as many pitches in a season, so there's no way you'll be at the top of the PAP list. I think Sheets getting hurt is inevitable, and the injuries are only going to get worse unless something changes. I agree with your point about him pitching after the injury, but we don't have any concrete information either way what Yost was told or wasn't told. Of course pitchers with high PAP are going to get hurt, because eventually most every pitcher will have an extended stay on the DL at one point in time, it's inevitable for most pitchers.

 

Ben got hurt because in addition to pitching very well, he's also made an art form out of coming down with the weirdest injuries known to man. Why not try assigning some of that blame on Sheets? Doesn't he also bear some responsibility? Is he in the same condition he was in 2004? Is he doing enough to keep his body going as he gets older? Was he completely honest with the team doctor and trainer? Did the team doctor correctly diagnose and predict the further injury risk? Etc, etc, etc. We have so little information that your position is pure speculation being passed off as fact in my opinion, we really don't know enough of the truth to comment on Yost's role at all. This isn't the first time this has happened with pitching in the organization, and starting with what's happened with Rogers I've become very skeptical of the Brewer's medical staff, especially when looking back at the past pitching failures. It's not that they don't have good intentions or are bad people, it's just that I'm beginning to lose the faith, in both the Brewers ability to draft good pitching and keep that pitching healthy through their first 10 years or so.

 

What would you say about a position player that only averaged 120 games a year for a 4 year span? Would you consider him a full time and healthy player? Why is it acceptable for a starter to be paid more money than a position player of comparable relative talent to make 24 of 32/33 starts just because he's a pitcher? There's a double standard here that doesn't seem to be acknowledged.

[Invader3K]

I agree about PAP being not very worthwhile, from what I've read. Then again, I had never heard of it until this season...it seems to be the hot new stat, or something.

[dadofandrew]

PAP basically penalizes good pitchers who give you 6-8 innings. It fails to do much about the occasional 137 pitch outing, but it sure hurts the guy who gives you 112 every 5th day.

 

It's as worthless as BA, and that's saying something.

[Ennder]

PAP basically penalizes good pitchers who give you 6-8 innings. It fails to do much about the occasional 137 pitch outing, but it sure hurts the guy who gives you 112 every 5th day.

 

It's as worthless as BA, and that's saying something.

It doesn't take a statistic to know that sticking Sheets out there for the 9th inning in a 4-1 games when he has over 100 pitches is probably not a smart move given his injury history. Yost did that multiple times this year.

 

It doesn't take a stat to understand that when a pitcher has a sore arm you don't push him in back to back starts, Yost did that as well.

 

I can agree with PAP being an AVG type stat though, it is an area of statistics in infancy still so it is a guideline at best. Stress is probably a better stat and Sheets ended up 6th in that even with the extra short starts thrown in otherwise he'd likely have been 3rd. IP is probably K for hitters, PAP is AVG, Stress is OBP. There is no OPS or EQA of pitcher abuse yet but they'll get there eventually.

[Oldcity]

TheCrew, is anyone saying Sheets isn't injury prone? I thought the argument was that Bedard would be a bigger risk.

[rluzinski]

PAP aside Sheets had 230+ pitches over two starts when Yost knew he was hurt. I have no idea if that contributed to Sheets missing those last few starts but it sure didn't help. Just stupid.

[TooLiveBrew]

I hate you Ned Yost.

 

 

Brittle Ben will show up and the Stros will have wasted a ton of money on a player that will never play enough to help the team get over the hump

 

You mean like how he helped the 2008 Brewers 'get over the hump'? The concept that a player is or isn't 'out there when you need him' is silly, largely because "when" is completely arbitrary & basically means, 'whenever the fans think'.

 

 

Why is it acceptable for a starter to be paid more money than a position player of comparable relative talent to make 24 of 32/33 starts just because he's a pitcher? There's a double standard here that doesn't seem to be acknowledged.

 

Because the pitchers are far, far harder to find. Supply & demand

 

 

Yo didn't get hurt throwing, he got hurt by Fielder in my opinion, and I firmly believe that.

 

I'm sorry, but this is just not right. Yo got hurt by putting himself in harm's way. Seriously, go watch that replay (not that you haven't http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif) -- the thing that pops into my head every time I see that entire play is, 'What the hell is Gallardo doing?'

[endaround]

Yo was also hurt to start the season. He missed as many starts as Sheets before his collision. He's in the middle of the injury nexus so not sure why everyone thinks he'll be super healthy.

[Ennder]

Yeah I have to agree that it was 100% Yo's fault that he got hurt on that play. He was late covering and should have just veered off instead of trying to jump the runner. Fielder has basically no fault.

[rluzinski]

"Why is it acceptable for a starter to be paid more money than a position player of comparable relative talent to make 24 of 32/33 starts just because he's a pitcher? There's a double standard here that doesn't seem to be acknowledged. "

 

Comparison relative talent? Basically, all that matters is the how many wins above average a player projects to be, compared to an average player at his position. And using 33 starts is not a reasonable baseline.

[Fatter than Joey]

Yeah I have to agree that it was 100% Yo's fault that he got hurt on that play. He was late covering and should have just veered off instead of trying to jump the runner. Fielder has basically no fault.

 

In all fairness, Prince was fat.

[TheCrew07]

I'm sorry, but this is just not right. Yo got hurt by putting himself in harm's way. Seriously, go watch that replay (not that you haven't ) -- the thing that pops into my head every time I see that entire play is, 'What the hell is Gallardo doing?'

 

I shouldn't have brought it up... sorry for taking this more off track but I have to respond. I'll play that game, watch the video again, see where Yo is looking. He's humping his butt to the bag glances at the runner then notices Fielder is coming to make a diving tag (instead of the fundamental play which is a simple toss to the pitcher) he's already to Yo's left hand side so Yo has no where to go but through the runner to his right (who if he touches is interference) so he makes a bad decision and goes over the top.

 

The only way Yo avoids a collision with Fielder or going through/over the runner is a Barry Sanders step back move, which maybe 2 or 3 professional running backs have done in my life time, it's pretty rare to be able to stop on a dime while in a full sprint. Prince hustling (which is commendable) has nothing to do with the series of poor decisions he made on that play. Looking at the angles (it's a football thing, pursuit) as the play develops, where was Yo supposed to go?

 

Fundamentally speaking, Yo did everything you want a pitcher to do by breaking hard for the bag and beating the runner. Fundamentally on that play what did Fielder do correctly? The simple play is to field the ball and under hand toss towards the bag so Yo can catch the ball and get a foot on the bag before the runner, that's basic little league baseball, not like a wheel play or exaggerated shift. Sometimes effort can make up for poor decision making, but this was not one of those cases.

 

Because the pitchers are far, far harder to find. Supply & demand

 

Comparison relative talent? Basically, all that matters is the how many wins above average a player projects to be, compared to an average player at his position. And using 33 starts is not a reasonable baseline

 

I get the supply and demand aspect of it, that's not the point, the point is perception.

 

As to Russ's point, pitching is requires much greater skill and natural talent, so I understand that there's going to be bias towards pitchers, I actively post about building from the pitching staff down... I wouldn't argue that point at all. Pitchers only pitch every 5th day because of the demands of the job, I apply the same standards to a pitcher as I would a hitter, because they are still getting paid to be healthy and perform. I was comparing 162 to 120 for a position player, and 33 to 24 for a pitcher... roughly the maximum number of starts possible to what an effective yet relatively unhealthy player provides in a season. If you're arguing that 75 percent of the starts is a reasonable goal for a SP, we're going to have to agree to disagree. Do I expect them all to get 30 starts? Not at all, pulled muscles are a part of sports and pitching doesn't lend itself to "playing hurt", but I would expect 27 to 28 year in and year out. Again we aren't talking about average pitchers, we're talking about elite players, or are we not considering Sheets to be an elite player anymore? You're going back to comparisons vs league average and I'm talking about paying Sheets vs similar pitchers results wise. If I were going to sign an elite FA pitcher I'd have to count on 28+ starts if I'm the Brewers... if I'm signing a stop gap my expectations on performance and his stay in the rotation will depend greatly on how he performs.

[rluzinski]

I'm talking about getting the most amount of wins with the money available. The fact that Sheets probably can't be counted on for 200+ IP doesn't automatically take him out of the running. It seems like some are very resistant to that concept and I don't understand why.

 

Runs/wins above average per start x starts. I'm certainly willing to give the healthy pitcher a slight bonus but come on now.

[DuWayne Steurer]

A pitcher who gets 24 starts, averages roughly 7 IP, and has a WHIP around 1.15 will face close to 700 batters, which means he'll have as much impact on runs allowed as a batter can have on runs scored, over the course of a full season.

 

The "he only plays every 5 days" thing is nonsense, as a SP effects half of every game he's in, whereas a batter can impact 1/9th of it.

 

Benny is frustrating, make no mistake, but 150 IP of a 3.00 ERA pitcher is as valuable as a very good offensive performer.

[TooLiveBrew]

The only way Yo avoids a collision with Fielder or going through/over the runner is a Barry Sanders step back move, which maybe 2 or 3 professional running backs have done in my life time, it's pretty rare to be able to stop on a dime while in a full sprint.

 

Or he could just do what pitchers are taught in those scenarios, which is to run parallel with the 1B line. He didn't really beat Johnson to first, he got there around the same time (which is why I think Fielder turned on the 'afterburners' towards first... thought Yo wouldn't beat Johnson). That's my beef with Yo there. He put himself in that bad position, and then had almost nowhere else to go. He didn't get a good jump to first, and tried to overcompensate. It was just a bad play/situation, not saying Gallardo is a dope for getting himself into it. It just wasn't Reed Johnson's fault, or Prince Fielder's fault.

[TheCrew07]

How exactly was Yo not going to directly to the bag? I've always hated how Fielder turns force outs into tag plays, and since the incident in Chicago I cringe every time he starts chugging towards the bag, it's recipe for disaster. Again, the fundamental play is to flip the ball to pitcher who's momentum is going directly towards the bag, and Yo was doing exactly what he's supposed to do. If he loses the foot race that's fine, there's little chance for a collision with 2 players running mostly parallel. However when you have 3 players converging on 1 spot, and one is a 300 LB monster coming across the path of the other 2 players, good things are not going to happen.

 

I still think Yo had Johnson by a step, maybe half a step at the bag, which isn't much, but who is Fielder going to outrun anywhere? Prince charging the line set in motion the chain of events. Is/was that 1 out worth the risk? I don't believe it was, or ever is, and I especially hate unnecessary tags... take the easy force out and lets go to the dugout.

 

Rluz and Roco, I think we're arguing 2 different sides of the same coin. I probably haven't been clear, I'm not suggesting Sheets doesn't have value, but I think all things being equal I'm taking the pitcher who I think is going to pitch more innings. Basically I'm arguing against the notion that it's reasonable to eat 25% or over pay for 75% of a season (depending on how you look at it) for a pitcher like Sheets who's very good when healthy, but you know is going to hit the DL or miss a couple of starts every couple of months. I've yet to see a contract structured based on 75% of the season for an off season deal. He's still being paid to take the ball every 5th day, so the point I'm trying to make is that I would rather the Brewers not resign Sheets knowing that there's X amount of dollars in dead money before the season even starts. It's not not dead money in the sense that he's not going to earn it, just that the average cost per start escalates past what he's actually worth. Does that make sense? I'm not sure how to articulate exactly what I mean.

[TooLiveBrew]

How exactly was Yo not going to directly to the bag? I've always hated how Fielder turns force outs into tag plays, and since the incident in Chicago I cringe every time he starts chugging towards the bag, it's recipe for disaster. Again, the fundamental play is to flip the ball to pitcher who's momentum is going directly towards the bag, and Yo was doing exactly what he's supposed to do.

 

Yo was late off the mound, hence Fielder feeling he had to sprint to first. I never said Yo wasn't going directly to the bag -- he did, and that was the problem (given his late jump). Fielder did not create a bad situation by sprinting -- he reacted to Gallardo not getting off the hill. Yo got a late break, which appeared to make Fielder think he had to hustle to first on his own. I can't blame Fielder for that one.

 

Except like FtJ said, to be fair, he was fat on that play http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

 

 

Basically I'm arguing against the notion that it's reasonable to eat 25% or over pay for 75% of a season (depending on how you look at it) for a pitcher like Sheets who's very good when healthy, but you know is going to hit the DL or miss a couple of starts every couple of months.

 

Even with that 75/25 caveat, I think Sheets would actually be closer to 'not being overpaid' than to 'being overpaid'. He's a darn good pitcher, and I think it's easy to let the negative feelings that come along with a guy 'not being there for his team' outshadow the immense value his talent provides.

 

 

He's still being paid to take the ball every 5th day, so the point I'm trying to make is that I would rather the Brewers not resign Sheets knowing that there's X amount of dollars in dead money before the season even starts.

 

No -- he's being paid a salary for the 2009 season. You/fans are the ones that feel he's being paid for 'every 5th day'. That's just a slogan that we repeat imo. You pay him based upon what kind of value you think he provides, not how many starts he makes. So Suppan makes 30+ starts -- great. What if he pitches like crap in 40% of those starts & isn't getting as deep into games? Then your bullpen, defense, offense, etc. are all being taxed as well.

 

Give me 25 starts from Sheets any season over 30 from Suppan or some guy that 'takes the ball every 5th day.' As Ennder (iirc) pointed out, there just aren't that many pitchers that throw 200+ IP with any consistency anymore. Like it or not, it's just the way it is in baseball right now. I think the pitchers that you tend to hear 'He takes the ball every 5th day' said about the most are the ones where that's their best attribute (like Suppan). That they are league-average & oftentimes worse gets left by the wayside.

[rluzinski]

Project ERA and IP and offer him what you think that's worth. If somone is willing to give a contract to Sheets that assumes 200 IP over the next 4 years, he will be overpaid. Of course, that's true for the vast majority of starting pitchers.

 

4.5 ERA @ 200 IP = 100 earned runs (Pitcher A)

 

3.5 ERA @ 160 IP (Sheets proj) +

5.25 ERA @ 40 IP (scrub AAA pitcher) =

3.85 @ 200 IP = 85.6 earned runs

 

In that scenario, Sheets is worth about 15 runs/1.5 wins over Pitcher A. A free agent win costs about $4.5 mil on average these days. That makes Sheets is worth around $6-7 mil more than pitcher A next year. What would pitcher A make on the open market? 10 mil? Sheets at 1 year for $15 mil would be a steal, IMO.

[steve267268]

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3674008

 

NEW YORK -- Manny Ramirez, Mark Teixeira and Ben Sheets wasted no time in filing for free agency.

 

The trio were among 65 players who filed on the first possible day. Thursday began a 15-day window in which approximately 180 players can become free agents.

 

Eligible players may file through Nov. 13, and teams can start negotiating money with players the following day.

 

So what does this mean as far as arbitration is concerned? I heard we were making him an offer but i want nothing to do with it. In my opinion, i think we should let him walk and get the draft picks. But how do we go about that? Do we still have to make him an offer? So confused now.. I guess what i am asking is, since he chose free agency, is there any arbitration at all anymore?

 

The article is a little misleading, but i don't believe that CC has filed yet. Good sign? Different thread?

[Ennder]

Pretty sure we have to offer him arbitration to get the draft picks. The best thing that could possibly happen is he accepts arbitration and we get him for 1 year relatively cheaply and he most likely stays a type A free agent. Sheets was a pretty big bargain last year and I can't imagine his price would go up all that much via arbitration. I highly doubt he accepts it though.

[KCBrewerfan34]

Sheets will get a multi-year from some team, arby shouldn't be too much of a gamble, we need those picks though!!!