Sheets watch (closed in deference to new thread)

[Oldcity]

Yes there aren't many teams left who would lose a first rounder by signing Sheets. It's either protected or gone already by signing a Type A. The Mets, for example, would only give up a second rounder. If the Yankees sign him, God forbid, they'd only give up a fourth.

[RyDogg66]

Is this turning into a who blinks first type scenario with Sheets and Melvin? 2/$18mm would be amazing.

Can't it only be a who blinks first type scenario if Sheets is looking this way?

 

Also, if 2/18 + option for a third is what he is looking for that is insane. If I were Melvin I would call Sheets' agent and tell him he'd go 2/17 + 10 million dollar team option or 1 mil buyout. I would go nuts if we could make that happen.

[MillerParkSouth]

^^ good point. If Sheets is really miffed by the way he perceives he was treated by the fans, he's got to realize that he would be given a hero's welcome if he came back at a reasonable offer. Of course, if he gets hurt again all that good will could go out the window, but still.

[TheCrew07]

Where did I say a first rounder? I said "a draft pick".... I said if the script were flipped I'd be upset with Melvin if he signed a 1 year deal for an often injured pitcher and we lost our 1st or 2nd rounder in the process. A 2 year deal or 2 year with a club option/buyout in the 3rd would be fine if Melvin was going to sign someone of Sheet's quality

[nate82]

From the Capital Times Melvin had this to say about Sheets and it can be found about 1/4 the way down in the article.

"Melvin said that the door remains open for Sheets -- their longtime but oft-injured ace, who now is a free agent -- and that they remain on good terms, recently spending time together at the general managers' meetings in Las Vegas.

But in the same breath, he acknowledged Sheets is expected to head in a different direction; the Mets and Rangers have been cited as interested parties."

[sveumrules]

now that fangraphs has added their value stat to the team leaderboards i thought it might be interesting to take a look back at sheeter's value for each of the years it is available, which is 2002 onward. value is in millions.

 

02 | sheets 9.8 | rusch 4.1

03 | sheets 10.4 | rusch 5.9

04 | sheets 24.7 | davis 14.0

05 | sheets 12.7 | davis 11.0

06 | sheets 14.7 | cappy 14.4

07 | sheets 9.4 | coco 12.9, soup 10.9, yoga 10.6

08 | sheets 20.6 | CC 21.1

 

as you can see from the value numbers even in his injury filled years of 05 and 06 he was still the most valuable pitcher on the team. he finally got knocked down to 4th in 07 and was barely edged by CC last year, whose value also includes his work with CLE. i'd imagine if you take out his time with CLE sheets would edge him as well.

[joepepsi]

This is the 681st post on the Sheets Watch. Incredible, considering there has been nothing to watch on the Sheets Channel all winter....

[Team Canada]

Heck, if Sheets only pitched half a season both years, he'd still be worth 9MM. This is crazy.

[lbb020]

I am still amazed at what Burnett got, when Sheets is apparently looking for a 2yr/18mil contract. One could easily argue that Sheets is the better option of the two. He's younger, he's at least as good if not better when both are healthy, and he's had less significant injuries and less injuries overall than Burnett. Obviously, the major difference is their current health....Sheet's not being able to complete the season healthy is literally costing him upwards of $50 million, ouch.

 

If he really is looking for 2 yrs/18 mil........I hope DM is seriously considering it. He would solidify the rotation (for at least half the year), and make us serious competitors for the WC. Of course, it all depends on how healthy he really is right now....and our organization should know best.

[Fatter than Joey]

Not to mention keeping Sheets away from the NYM is probably a good thing for our WC hopes.

[endaround]

Where did I say a first rounder? I said "a draft pick".... I said if the script were flipped I'd be upset with Melvin if he signed a 1 year deal for an often injured pitcher and we lost our 1st or 2nd rounder in the process. A 2 year deal or 2 year with a club option/buyout in the 3rd would be fine if Melvin was going to sign someone of Sheet's quality

 

But then again you think the Sabathia deal was a bad thing. If Melvin wouldn't give up a 2nd round pick for 3 wins this year he's crazy.

[JohnBriggs12]

The real story goes beyond Sheets. It's the complete collapse of the entire remaining FA market. Agents have cost players millions this offseason by not accepting arbitration. How about Brian Shouse turning down arby thinking he could get a 2 year deal somewhere? He'll be lucky to get a one year major league deal anywhere close to what he earned last year. Some players rather than take minimal salaries or minor league deals will end up retiring. It's amazing to watch this unfold.

[endaround]

Yes its those evil agents who kept from their players the complete collapse of teams spending despite the Mets and Yankees getting new stadiums, the Nats finally able to spend and Cubs seeming to get new ownership.

[DuWayne Steurer]

Yeah, those value numbers don't come close to what a "value" is this offseason. Player salaries (aside from the Yankees) are depressed to a pretty significant degree.

[TheCrew07]

endaround wrote:

 

But then again you think the Sabathia deal was a bad thing. If Melvin wouldn't give up a 2nd round pick for 3 wins this year he's crazy.

Ahh I see, you're just responding randomly then.. Why is he crazy? Because he doesn't agree with you? Again I could care less about the WC, I don't know how I can be any more clear, my ultimate goal is a WS appearance and hopefully championship. I get the arguement that the more shots you take at the post season the better your odds are, but I simply don't agree, I think Oakland is a prime example of that. This team is flawed, I'll take 3 more wins if the pitcher is signed for 3 years because I still think this team will be really good in the near future... if we're talking another rental I'll pass, for all of the reasons I've previously stated. That 2nd round pick could become Yo or Hardy, we really don't know, but for a 1 year rental I'm not risking anything for a single player that doesn't really put this team over the top, we aren't 1 player away. If you don't agree that's fine, but continually posting about it doesn't make you any more right than it does it me, just like continually posting your opinions about Escobar doesn't make them any more true than the first time... let go man.

[endaround]

You keep acting like there is this huge difference between wild card teams and teams that win the world series when there absolutely isn't. The Phillies and the Brewers were pretty even over the course of last year. The Cardinals won 83 games in 2006 and their banner is hanging. The Cubs won 97 games last year and got swept by an 84 win team.

 

Sure that might be Yo or even more likely he'll be TGJ. But even if he is Yo those 3 wins could come on a 72 win team. So not only does the pick have to pan out it has to help a team thats actually competitive.

[bklynbrewcrew]

Melvin really needs to make amends and make Ben feel wanted. If he can do that we can have an ace at a Suppan salary. Think about that; we might be able to sign Sheets for less than Suppan will make the next two years. Please please please Doug Melvin make it happen.

[Invader3K]

Melvin really needs to make amends and make Ben feel wanted. If he can do that we can have an ace at a Suppan salary. Think about that; we might be able to sign Sheets for less than Suppan will make the next two years. Please please please Doug Melvin make it happen.

If other teams aren't jumping through hoops to "make Ben feel wanted", why should Melvin at this point?

 

Look, I'd like to see Sheets come back for a reasonable contract too...I just think if that was going to happen, it would have by now.

[DocLuna7]

Melvin really needs to make amends and make Ben feel wanted. If he can do that we can have an ace at a Suppan salary. Think about that; we might be able to sign Sheets for less than Suppan will make the next two years. Please please please Doug Melvin make it happen.

I am not sure how anyone on this website, unless you have inside knowledge, would just assume that it is Doug who is making Sheets feel unwanted and not Sheets rejecting the Brewers attempts to bring him back. Does anyone have any concrete evidence that I missed while reading this thread?

[BrewCrewForever]

Maybe after we get Fielder, Hart and Weeks arby stuff done with, Doug will see where we are with payroll and go back to Ben and make him an offer? I can only hope. It's not my money but if it was I would offer him 1 year $10 mill right now.

[TheCrew07]

You keep acting like there is this huge difference between wild card teams and teams that win the world series when there absolutely isn't. The Phillies and the Brewers were pretty even over the course of last year. The Cardinals won 83 games in 2006 and their banner is hanging. The Cubs won 97 games last year and got swept by an 84 win team.

 

Sure that might be Yo or even more likely he'll be TGJ. But even if he is Yo those 3 wins could come on a 72 win team. So not only does the pick have to pan out it has to help a team thats actually competitive.

You keep acting like the Brewers are constructed anything like those teams when they aren't. Yes anything can happen if a team gets hot at the right time and rides momentum through like the Cardinals who then played an inexperienced Detroit team that basically handed it to them. Sure history could repeat itself and likely will at some point, but the Brewers don't really compare with that Cardinal team, which was an offensive machine with poor pitching; Marquis, Mulder, Reyes, Ponson, Weaver, and Sosa all had ERAs over 5 with very solid defense behind them. The Cardinals won big and lost big that season, I'm not sure how that's adequate proof anything other than getting on a run as you move into the playoffs can matter.

 

The Phillies have been in the top 3 in the NL in runs scored since 2004, the Brewers best showing was 5th in 2007 when the team tanked badly. The Philies won the world series the year their pitching matched their offense, in the past the Phillies had been towards the bottom of the league in total pitching. When Colorado made their run they were 2nd in runs and 8th in pitching (very good considering Coors). In 2008 the Brewers were 2nd in the NL in overall pitching narrowly edging out the Cubs and Phillies, (3.85 to 3.87 and 3.88) and if the offense had performed like they did in 2007 it would have been an even better year but the pitching/defense wasn't good enough come playoffs.

 

Both St. Louis and Philly play excellent defense as a team, by all accounts the Brewers are not in that same class. I think a team needs to be defensively sound to take it to that next level, and the Brewers as currently constructed just don't stack up to the teams you're trying to compare them to. Teams that make the unexpected run typically are sound foundamentally, and again that's just not how the Brewers are currently constructed, it's very difficult to win playoff games giving runs/outs away in the field or at the plate. I don't know if you'll buy that notion or not, as it's sort of like Hall's defense... watching the games would lead you to believe he's not a good defender, but defensive metrics have always liked the plays he makes at range so people that are into defensive metrics believe he's a good defender. You can get to the playoffs with any number of different combinations, but I think winning baseball playoff hasn't changed all that much over the years it still comes down to pitching and defense, and the year the Cardinals won they had both in the playoffs.

 

I realize that you don't value prospects as much as I do and that you'll always trade for wins now, but I feel your logic is flawed. The Brewers will never be in a place where they are always in "win now mode" because the system is so critical to their success. The Brewers are not going to be plugging holes through FA, if they could and MLB was a level playing field, I could accept trading for wins now year in and year out. In my opinion where your logic breaks down is 2 fold... First, the top of the system eventually gets bled dry leaving voids that cannot be filled on the MLB roster which in turn leads to an unnecessary crash as the team cannot replace it's losses through FA.

 

Secondly, just because a prospect has no MLB value to you today, doesn't mean they won't in the future. I've been around long enough that I remember people wanting to trade Hardy, Fielder, Yo, and Braun on teams that were more flawed than the 2009 Brewers will be. Acquiring 3 wins this season might actually cost 12 wins long term, we just don't know the net result. This gets messy depending on if the trade actually helped the club reach it's goal or not, how the prospects dealt in the trade turn out vs the prospects aquired via the draft picks, and so on. It's easy for you to say that the player we traded might get wins back in a 72 win season, but that player might also be the piece that puts the fictious team over the top.

 

The 2009 brewers will be competitve but without more quality pitching and improved defense I'll argue that they are not in their window to compete, but rather between windows. I actually think the team will get better offensively and defensively through natural attrition as our 2nd wave of position talent comes up. I don't see how trading those prospects in the 2nd wave other than maybe Salome (because of Lucroy) helps the team in '10, '11, and '12. The problem, both in the short term and long term is the rotation, the idea should be to push our 3,4,5 pitchers down the chain, not insert marginal quality between them. For example I'd be much happier with Bush as our number 5 than Bush as our 3... the question at hand is how to best to accomplish that feat, and I don't feel it's feasible to get there thinking 1 year at a time. Guys like Wolf and Looper may fill a void now but they also do not siginificantly raise the talent level in the rotation.

 

Sheet's declining value on the FA market has definitely caught me by surprise and he absolutely makes sense given he doesn't cost us anything to acquire. However, as has been stated ad nausuem, it takes 2 to tango. I'm not against trading for pitching, I advocate it all the time, I'm just against trading for short term solutions. I didn't like the Sabathia deal because I didn't care about the playoff appearance (trading for him never guaranteed a play off spot like some were claiming, without a Mets collapse the Brewers were on the outside looking in even with him) and he was a rental, it had nothing to do with the prospects. I just would have rather obtained a lasting solution for that same package, that's just how I roll. I'm always looking down the road at '10, '11, or '12 and thinking about how to make pieces fit and plug holes without overspending in FA. I view FA as a trap for small market clubs because they would typically be locked into longterm contracts with too great a percentage of the payroll tied into one player. I also think it's much easier for a team like Milwaukee to stop gap a position spot with an average caliber position player than a spot in the rotation, so I favor signing position players over pitchers.

 

edit. Holy crap that got long, sorry for the book.

[rluzinski]

Isn't here is a reasonable chance that whomever signs Sheets will also get a draft pick in a year or two?

[RyDogg66]

Yes.

[GAME05]

Isn't here is a reasonable chance that whomever signs Sheets will also get a draft pick in a year or two?

even if Benny only made 60% of his starts over a two-year contract, I'd bet he'd put up good enough numbers to at least garner Type B free-agent status, and therefore a pick.

 

maybe it's safe to assume Melvin would like Sheets back, but I don't see Sheets returning unless it's a last-minute thing. I'm thinking Melvin's best move is to say "Here's a one-year, $12M offer that I'll put on the table." Sheets will look as long as possible for that two-year contract and hopefully realize that a 1/$12 is probably better in the long-run than a 2/$18 from someone else.

[lbb020]

I am not sure how anyone on this website, unless you have inside knowledge, would just assume that it is Doug who is making Sheets feel unwanted and not Sheets rejecting the Brewers attempts to bring him back.

maybe it's safe to assume Melvin would like Sheets back, but I don't see Sheets returning unless it's a last-minute thing.

 

This seems to be a common theme in this thread...but when has there been anything to suggest that Sheets is not interested in returning to Milwaukee? He rejected his arbitration offer, because at the time, it seemed as though he would be able to land a large contract somewhere. As far as I know, he has never expressed disinterest in returning to Milwaukee. At this point, unless a team becomes awfully generous, it makes the most sense for Sheets and the Brewers both if he returns to Milwaukee for 2 more years.