Sheets watch (closed in deference to new thread)

[Ennder]

It is entirley possible that Sheets comes back and dominates. His history over the last couple years would seem to indicate that is not likely however.

 

True, I don't know why anyone would think someone who went 198 IP with an 3.09 ERA would be worth taking a 'big' risk on. He is done and should probably retire.

[naivin]

True, I don't know why anyone would think someone who went 198 IP with an 3.09 ERA would be worth taking a 'big' risk on. He is done and should probably retire.

Right, because that's what I said.

 

That 198 IP/3.09 goes along with the 20 GS/130 IP/3.5 ERA he averaged the previous 3 seasons. Nothing to see here! If that constitutes dominant, then I guess you are right and for the moment anyway, every GM in MLB is wrong.

 

He has pitched 8 MLB seasons and the fact is, has been on and off the DL the last four and failed to finish 3 of those. His velocity was noticeably down at the end of last year. There is not much to indicate he can give you a full season at this point, let alone two.

 

There are risks, and there are risks worth taking. The Brewers have 4 consecutive years of being disappointed by Ben Sheets to indicate he is not a risk worth taking. If you are a team that will not be affected by a contract that doesn't work out, go for it. The Brewers are not such a team.

[Ennder]

But just saying he has been 'on and off the DL for 4 years' isn't really being fair either. I mean he had one injury that bridged 05/06 and then a jammed finger and that is his DL time over the past 4 years. He has had some other minor day to day type stuff and then the predictable sorenesss last year after Yost abused him in the first half and made him hit what should have been his innings limit two months too early.

 

Burnett as an example had elbow surgery in 04, elbow soreness that landed him on the DL twice in 06 and shoulder problems that landed him on the DL twice in 07. He is a much riskier pitcher than Sheets.

 

Some team will give Sheets a deal worth more than his arbitration I'm sure unless there are actual tests that have been done that show that currently something is wrong with him and they just haven't shared that news with the public.

[rluzinski]

An often injured pitcher isn't anymore a financial risk than any other pitcher if his projected IP is reflected in his salary. I'm beating a dead horse at this point but I don't think some people can wrap their head around that fact, yet.

 

No team is going to pay Sheets a salary that presumes he'll log 200 innings next year. On the other hand, I think Johnbriggs is wrong in assuming he'll be paid something like $7 mil next year.

[Roderick]

But just saying he has been 'on and off the DL for 4 years' isn't really being fair either. I mean he had one injury that bridged 05/06 and then a jammed finger and that is his DL time over the past 4 years.

To be the devil's advocate - if the injury that bridged the 05-06 season happened in April of 2005, that looks even better? I'm not so sure. A case could be made that Sheets' games started stat for his career is inflated because a more proportionate share of his lost injury time included offseason then the usual pitcher maladies.

 

That said, sign him to a two year deal with some games-started incentive for 2009 that would give them some protection regarding his latest injury.

[Ennder]

To be the devil's advocate - if the injury that bridged the 05-06 season happened in April of 2005, that looks even better? I'm not so sure

 

To most people it would look better even though it shouldn't. The fact he tries to come back for the start of 06 and aggravated it is somehow worse than just losing a full season. I've never been able to figure out where that thought process comes from but people treat those two cases very differently. If Sheets had missed all of 2005, was healthy in 2006, had the finger thing in 2007 and then a sore elbow at the end of 08 I don't think people would say he is as injury prone as what really happend. Somehow that injury (which they predicted would take a year to recover from btw) spanning two seasons has made him more injury prone.

[JohnBriggs12]

An often injured pitcher isn't anymore a financial risk than any other pitcher if his projected IP is reflected in his salary. I'm beating a dead horse at this point but I don't think some people can wrap their head around that fact, yet.

 

No team is going to pay Sheets a salary that presumes he'll log 200 innings next year. On the other hand, I think Johnbriggs is wrong in assuming he'll be paid something like $7 mil next year.

My assumption (and admitedly I could be off a few million) is based more on the market (for teams other than the big boys) being depressed than it is for his injuries. We aren't seeing healthy pitchers getting what they thought they'd get (outside of NY) in October when this process began.

[rluzinski]

3.6 ERA @ 160 IP = $15 mil

 

Rough numbers, of course, but that's around what we would have expected Sheets to get if the 09 off season market, had it followed recent trend. Now, I can buy that the current free agent market has experienced a down turn but it's not by 50%. Teams may not be offering as long of deals as they may have been a year ago but the per year salaries don't appear to be that off.

[JJHardy7]

I'm not a huge Sheets guy, but I do think the Brewers should sign him. I think he is injury prone (regardless of freak injuries vs. pitching injuries, etc.), but I don't want to discuss that again. I do have three points I want to bring up.

 

How much has/will pitching in Milwaukee for Sheets' entire career hurt his market? (Who's been the last Brewer to actually hit free agency and do well while playing their entire career for the Brewers)

 

Did trading for CC hurt Ben's value? Imagine if the Brewers got into the playoffs without CC. I'm going to imagine Sheets would've gotten a lot more national credit.

[Oldcity]

Those are valid points, even though they shouldn't be. The obvious free agent that comes to mind is Paul Molitor, and while I'm sure there have been some since I'm not able to think of many off the top of my head who definitely did well.

[fondybrewfan]

At this point I almost belief Sheets will be stupid not to just take a 1 year deal. If he is confident in himself that he will stay healthy this year he will make a boatload of money next offseason, much more than he would get in the 2nd year of a deal he signs this year. Of course if he thinks their is a chance he will get hurt again he will try his darndest to get a 2+ year deal.

 

If I were Ben, if someone offered me 1 year and $10M I would take it. He has already made enough money to retire on, why not take a one year deal and hope for the best rather than a 2+ year deal well below market value/

[kramnoj]

I'm not seeing this on JSOnline, but I thought I heard Homer say today that Melvin was opening to Sheets returning. There weren't any details to go along with that. My guess is that Melvin is letting Sheets see what his market is, and if there isn't a market out there that meets Sheets expectations, Melvin can make a one year offer that will be higher than anything else Sheets sees. I'm a little surprised that Melvin hasn't made any multiseason offers, but maybe he feels that an offer too low would be insulting and would prefer that Sheets realize from other teams how limited the demand is for his services right now. If the Brewers were able to bring back Sheets and sign Hoffman for a one plus option deal, I would be fairly content with the offseason.

[BrewCrewForever]

kramnoj, Melvin did say last not on WSSP's hot stove weekly show that they have NOT closed the door on bringing Ben back.

[Menace II Sobriety]

Sorry if this has been asked before, I have not read through the whole thread. I have been wondering for a few days if Sheets will end up anywhere but with the Brewers next year. The only way I can see him going somewhere else is on a 2 year deal with team options for 2-3 more years. My reasoning for this is simple, coming off of an injury what team is going to give up a first or second rounder with 6 years of service available for a one year deal. Even at 2 years it is a stretch, the second rounder would be easier to give up but this would also put Sheets on one of the lower tier teams in the league which again would make it more advantageous for him to come back to the town he knows to prove himself again.

[twobrewers]

I still believe that Sheets is still injured.

 

It is unfathomable that he can't get at least 3 years and 30 million if he is completely recovered.

[rluzinski]

I still believe that Sheets is still injured.

 

You mean, he couldn't start the season right now? Isn't that a given? I assumed his injury would take some time to be 100%.

[silversurferr]

Menace is correct; injuries plus draft picks add to the price to sign Sheets. Of the primary contenders, Houston is old and needs to retain its first round pick, while Texas needs pitching, but is better off keeping their second rounder.

[TheCrew07]

A 4th round comp pick would be a laughable end to the Sheet's saga in Milwaukee... he'd never get over his goat status.

 

The thought of it makes me absolutely livid.

[Invader3K]

If Sheets were to end up with the Yankees (and I don't think he will), and the Brewers only get a fourth round comp pick, the Brewers should sue MLB or something.

[PeaveyFury]

Sheets can't end up with the Yankees, as they're at their Type-A FA limit.

[razzzorsharp]

I know they can't nor shouldn't but I would love to hear Doug and even Ned's take on Sheets and if they are even remotely interested inbringing him back. Everyday I come back waiting on the bad news that Sheets has signed a one year deal with another team.

[Baldkin]

Sheets can't end up with the Yankees, as they're at their Type-A FA limit.

Can you explain that further, Peavey?

 

I hear & read all the time about how the Yankees may go after Sheets and/or Manny, and how the Brewers would only get a 4th round pick if Sheets went to the Yankees.

 

Are they unable to sign him? Or do they forfeit something else?

[twobrewers]

You mean, he couldn't start the season right now? Isn't that a given? I assumed his injury would take some time to be 100%.

The only reports we are getting on Sheets regarding his injury is that it was minor.

 

We have never heard any time line on how long his recovery will be - or for that matter, the full extent of his injury.

 

I mean, at least 20 teams should have inquired about his physical status by this point - right?

 

I do not believe a full recovery is guaranteed - and think Sheets starting the season is very optimistic. (That is the only way I can explain the decline in his value)

[Menace II Sobriety]

That is what I thought as well until today. http://www.boston.com/spo..._improved_players/?page=4 this is via brewcrewball in the Ben Sheets and Yankees discussion. If they are incorrect I apologize, but I assume that 90% of us take what we read as gospel and the smallest margin of us actually read the collective bargaing agreement. Until today I would have agreed 100% with you, but now I have no idea how it works. According to this the Yankees can sign a total of 9 type A and B's. ESPN and the other networks never cover the draft pick allocation either because I doubt they know how it works either.

[PeaveyFury]

According to this the Yankees can sign a total of 9 type A and B's.

 

That may be a total though- it doesn't break down how many of the 9 total can be A or B, and everything in the past has suggested that they can only sign 3 type A's. Maybe it's 3 Type A, 6 Type B for 9 total? Not sure.

 

Are they unable to sign him? Or do they forfeit something else?

 

Unable to sign, but as M2S mentions, none of us have actually read the language to know for sure.