Sheets watch (closed in deference to new thread)

[Ennder]

Unfortunately the Rangers 1st round pick is protected so if he goes there we don't get a 1st round either.

[adambr2]

The more time goes by, the more optimistic I get that we COULD get a deal done with Sheets if we want to. The market conditions are perfect right now for it. Free agent values are falling, and teams are shying away from Sheets based a lot on injury concerns.

 

If this continues, I see no reason we couldn't bring Sheets back for 2 year, $27M, with a team or vesting option for the 3rd year. That's NOT a long term risk, especially considering the potential reward. It's basically equivalent to the remainder of Suppan's contract. If necessary, I'd even be willing to consider something like a "dual option" 3rd year, with a $15M club option for 2011 and a player option for $10M.

 

I can't see how a mild risk like this wouldn't be a good idea for us, unless there's a lot more problems with Sheets' elbow than we know about. If it works, we've got 2 aces at the front of our rotation and a potential third ace at #3. If it doesn't work out, we're right where we are now anyway. It's not a potentially franchise-crippling contract.

[Roscoe Chill]

No offense to anyone in particular, but Sheets is gone. We can argue all day about how good he is, how injury prone he is, this and that. But at the end of the day, it's quite obvious Sheets isn't coming back to Milwaukee. Some of you are going to be quite surprised when he signs that "bargain" deal with some other team, a deal that the Brewers could have easily afforded, if A) they were interested. and B) he was interested. But you shouldn't be. It's time to move on no matter what you believe.

 

Disclaimer: The above post is opinion, not to be taken as I am posting it as fact, but I also think it's time to start reading between the lines.

[rluzinski]

I agree with NDOG with regard to the chances of Sheets coming back. Bridges appear to have been burned. I still think someone will offer him a 2/$30 mil deal, if he wants it. He may roll the dice and take a 1 year deal, though.

[twobrewers]

... but he declined $12+ mil guaranteed in arbitration?

Even still - you have to admit, the silence is deafening.

 

A healthy Ben Sheets get 2 years and $25 million EASY. I thought after his initial injury the prognosis was that he was going to avoid surgery. (But that surgery wasn't that far out of reach either.)

[BrewCrewForever]

I'm going to hold out hope we can bring Sheets back until I see he signs elsewhere.

[TooLiveBrew]

Some of you are going to be quite surprised when he signs that "bargain" deal with some other team

 

If he does leave, I don't think anyone is going to be surprised. Just disappointed

 

 

Bridges appear to have been burned

 

For whatever reason(s), this does seem more & more accurate.

[kramnoj]

I think supporters of the bridge burning theory should lay out some support for it before it becomes accepted fact. I see zero evidence for it. There is a quote from Sheets in the last month where he says something like not wanting to close doors, burn bridges, etc. We have TH reporting:

 

"Brewers general manager Doug Melvin told me this morning he met yesterday with free agent right-hander Ben Sheets and his agent, Casey Close.

 

Melvin did not have the meeting to make a bid to keep Sheets, however. And it doesn't sound like he intends to make an offer.

 

"We just went up to his suite and just visited with him, talked baseball, talked free agency," said Melvin, who was accompanied by assistant Gord Ash.

 

"We didn't talk about a contract. I think he's going to be OK."

 

and

 

"Sheets was injured often during the four-year, $38.5 million contract he completed this year, so the Brewers obviously are leery about giving him a multi-year deal, even with the loss of Sabathia.

 

"We never ruled it out," said Melvin. "Casey said, 'Let's just stay in touch.'

 

"We haven't sat down and had a plan (for making Sheets an offer).""

 

I think it's much easier to believe that the Brewers don't feel Sheets is a good investment because of his injury history and are probably looking to find a bargain in the FA market. This is total speculation on my part, but I also think Melvin may now want Sheets to sign elsewhere so that the Brewers get the two draft picks. Melvin may find the two picks and a bargain FA to be more valuable than bringing Sheets back.

 

Also, in terms of negotiations, Sheets needs to make the next move. Melvin has offered a one year deal at market value and Sheets has rejected it. If Sheets wants to come back to the Brewers because he isn't getting good offers, he needs to let the Brewers know that and they can see if there is some common ground.

[strawbossisevil]

This may be what is going on in Melvin's mind.

 

Randy Johnson (who probably will be cheaper) + Two Draft Picks > Ben Sheets.

 

I have to say, if I was given the choice between RJ and two high level draft picks or Ben Sheets, I would take Randy Johnson every time. Sheets is probably the slightly better pitcher, but not that much better that it would outweigh the benefit of the two high draft picks.

 

It may be that Sheets is more of a last resort for the Brewers if Randy Johnson and Smoltz sign elsewhere. I think such thinking is smart as it is aimed toward the future as well as bringing in a pitcher who could help in the present.

[twobrewers]

I think supporters of the bridge burning theory should lay out some support for it before it becomes accepted fact. I see zero evidence for it.

I agree with you that the evidence isn't crystal clear - I think most of it is simply "reading between the lines."

"We didn't talk about a contract. I think he's going to be OK."

If there was a chance at a contract - it wouldn't have been "he's going to be OK". Melvin would have said something closer to "We'll see what happens"

Also, Sheets expressed displeasure when the Brewers declined to offer him a contract extension before last season. If you remember, the Brewers told him "We'll see how this year goes" - to which Ben was upset. During the year, when Ben was pitching fantastic, there was rumors that the Brewers wanted to open negotiations again. I believe Ben's quote was "You can't invite yourself back to the table"

Taking those facts in addition to the fact that Sheets doesn't like to bat and has been treated poorly (Scapegoated) in Milwaukee for the past 3 years - I see lets of evidence that would lead to a conclusion that their is friction between Ben Sheets and the Milwaukee Brewers.

 

[kramnoj]

I don't doubt that Sheets feels slighted by the lack of a contract offer before he became a free agent. But that tells me there isn't any bridge burning on his side. Unless it was just a respect thing, his disappointment indicates that he would have been willing to come back for the right offer. So that leaves some bridge burning being done by the Brewers. That they were willing to take even a small risk that he might accept arbitration is indication that they had no problem with him pitching for the Brewers again, given the right circumstances.

 

So I don't see any bridge burning. I see two parties that have different ideas of the value that Sheets has. As long as there is a major difference in that perception of value, no deal between the two is going to get done.

[twobrewers]

I don't doubt that Sheets feels slighted by the lack of a contract offer before he became a free agent. But that tells me there isn't any bridge burning on his side.

I think you vastly underestimate the ego of a world class athlete.

 

I would imagine the Brewers telling Ben Sheets that they planned to "wait and see" was about the most insulting thing the Brewers could have done to Ben. (From Ben's perspective)

[kramnoj]

twobrewers, I'm not sure what your point is. Are you just saying that I understated Sheet's reaction? Or are you disagreeing with the point that I was making that Sheets not being happy with an offer hasn't resulted in him burning bridges from his side? Are you saying that if the Brewers now offered Sheets a multi-year deal that was equal to any other offer that Sheets was getting, Sheets wouldn't take the Brewers offer because of the previous insult?

[twobrewers]

Or are you disagreeing with the point that I was making that Sheets not being happy with an offer hasn't resulted in him burning bridges from his side?

Yes.

 

I believe Sheets was so insulted that he will never play for the Brewers again.

[kramnoj]

I believe Sheets was so insulted that he will never play for the Brewers again.

 

What reason do you have to base that on? If he was so insulted, why did he see Melvin at the Winter Meetings? Why did his agent reportedly say "Let's just stay in touch"? Do you think Melvin is making this all up, Sheets is just waiting until he signs a deal before he comes out saying how awful the Brewers are? There's a difference between being insulted and burning bridges. Right now we have no indication at all that Sheets has burned any bridges to keep him from playing in Milwaukee.

[Invader3K]

Sheets may be thinking that the Brewers will be his fall back if he can't get a satisfactory offer from any other team. That said, I don't think he wants to come back, based on what has been reported. I still think he ends up with the Rangers or somewhere else.

[twobrewers]

What reason do you have to base that on?

Kramnoj - I think I've clearly laid out all my reasoning.

I am not interested in having a conversation that just results in a "what are basing that on" every time I explain what I have just based my opinion on. I believe we are just going in circles at this point.

[Fatter than Joey]

Sheets is probably the slightly better pitcher, but not that much better that it would outweigh the benefit of the two high draft picks.

 

If we signed Sheets to a one-year deal, we'd still get the picks after next year (in all likelihood)

[strawbossisevil]

Depends, FTJ, if he gets injured we get nothing at all. He has a history of injuries, I am not sure I'd be willing to take that gamble. Plus, no where have I seen that Sheets would accept a one year deal. I've heard two years minimum.

[Roderick]

Sheets is probably the slightly better pitcher, but not that much better that it would outweigh the benefit of the two high draft picks.

 

If we signed Sheets to a one-year deal, we'd still get the picks after next year (in all likelihood)

I agree that you can't use the logic that cheaper free agent pitcher X plus two comp picks is > than Sheets. Because we will get comp picks after his next contract is up (barring a huge loss of playing time and/or performance due to injury). And assuming any contract the Brewers sign Sheets to will be a short contract, it isn't like they are too far in the horizon.

[strawbossisevil]

It carries significant risk.

 

We would have Sheets for a minimum of two years. In his thirties. Chances that he gets seriously injured or has his performance slip significantly are significant. I wouldn't call it likely, but it is significant.

 

Add on top of that the fact that if we did sign him, the prospects we would draft would be two years later than they would be at this time, meaning they would likely take longer to get to the majors and help our team.

 

Add on top of that the fact that signing someone like Johnson or Looper is going to likely be much cheaper, saving money for other players this year and next year.

 

The logic is not invalid, you are just more willing to 1) take on a higher amount of risk 2) wait longer for prospects to reach the majors and 3) pay more for a single player. Logic does not favor one point of view over the other IMO.

[brewerfan82]

I agree that you can't use the logic that cheaper free agent pitcher X plus two comp picks is > than Sheets. Because we will get comp picks after his next contract is up (barring a huge loss of playing time and/or performance due to injury).

True. However, if pitcher X warrants a comp pick or two after next season (as Johnson probably would, assuming we'd offer a pitcher of his age arbitration, which is debatable), you could still argue that cheaper pitcher X plus two comp picks now plus one or two comp picks next year > than Sheets plus two comp picks next year.

 

You still are likely to get more comp picks by signing someone other than Sheets in the end.

[lukevan]

You don't get comp picks if Johnson retires, which IMO is likely once he gets his 300th win.

[logan82]

If a player is injured their stats are extrapolated over a whole year(I think) so the only way a player will affect their Class A or B status is playing poorly.

[strawbossisevil]

Right but no one is going to sign him if he is injured and costs two draft picks. We would have to offer him arbitration too, despite his being injured. The risk is most certainly there.