Melvin interview on 540 ESPN

[dpapo]

Doug Melvin did an interview with Homer on 540 ESPN. I'll leave a link and also give a short recap in my own words.

 

--Homer is a big Dillon fan, so Homer began with playing Dillon as a balance that the lineup needed. Melvin instead talked about needing a left handed hitter for better balance in the lineup.

 

--Briefly talked about not starting Gallardo in game 4 of the playoffs. Not something Melvin really discussed with Sveum, let things up to Sveum.

 

--C.C. Sabathia--Basically, yeah we'll make an offer, but I can't think of too many players who signed before they actually filed for free agency when given the chance. Talked about spending too much money on one player, etc... Basic vibe I got from Melvin, Sabathia is not resigning with the Brewers.

 

--Homer mentioned his plan of starting Escobar at short next year and moving Hardy to third, keeping Weeks at second. Melvin said it's been discussed, but they haven't made that decision and have yet to approach Hardy to see if he would be interested and haven't made the decision if it's something they would be interested in yet.

Then Melvin brought up on his own that they really could use another left handed bat in the lineup and were thinking about having Gamel playing 3rd next year. Gave the example of Arizona bringing up and carrying Mark Reynolds even though he made 29 errors and had a bunch of strikeouts. Gamel would make the errors, but wouldn't strike out as much and can also hit left handed pitching. However, was disappointed that they didn't really get the chance to play some of their younger players (like Gamel) more to see what they could do.

 

--Subject turned to Mike Cameron. Homer came up with the idea of not picking up his option and trying to get a left handed, lead off hitting center fielder and if there was a center fielder that basically fit that bill. Melvin asked what was the most important thing for a lead off hitter and Homer said OBP, but Melvin said scoring runs. A bit of give and take about all that and some talk about strikeouts not being that big of a deal, but having players make more contact also has some advantages and so on. But basically sounded as if Melvin was sticking up for having Weeks as the lead off hitter.

Also, sometime during the interview was asked if the decision to pick up Cameron's option was made yet and Melvin said they haven't made a decision on that yet.

 

--Homer said that Brenly fit the main things that Melvin was looking for. Melvin said no decision has been made yet, but did confirm that Brenly was a candidate and has 4 to 5 serious candidate's that have experience. Reasons to like everyone of them and reason to have reservations about all of them, like managing with a large market team when the Brewers aren't and will still need someone to teach and develop those AAA/AAAA type players like Brady Clark and Podsednik type of players.

 

--Tough choice with Sveum and is still talking with Sveum, even mentioned that they had just had a 20 minute conversion with him. But, went on to talk about having an experienced manager and all the stuff that we all have seen about what's he looking for.

 

--Talked about value or lack there off of hitting coaches. Hitting approaches, needing to make adjustments.

 

--Was asked about the level of involvement that Mark Attanasio has. Gave same answers we've heard before. They work together and gives input, but Melvin has the final call. Used Mike Camerson signing as an example. Had a discussion about Cameron and Mark felt pretty good about signing Cameron. But, gave the typical PC answer which doesn't mean it isn't true. Just nothing we haven't heard before.

 

Whenever I try to do these recaps, I know that I always miss a few things here and there, so I also like to leave the link so people can listen to it themselves.

 

mms://goodkarma.wmod.llnwd.net/a459/o2/WAUK/Doug_Melvin102108.mp3

 

or if that link doesn't work,

 

http://www.espnmilwaukee.com/audio/

[dadofandrew]

Thanks for the link, I'll add anything if I catch it.

[BrewCrewForever]

Heard this on my way home from work. I like that Melvin said they have already had discussions internally of moving Hardy to 3B and having Escobar at SS.

[sbrylski]

Melvin asked what was the most important thing for a lead off hitter and Homer side OBP, but Melvin said scoring runs.

 

Not a fan of that phrasing. Its more all-encompassing of the leadoff's job, but it is obviously team dependent. He knows that, obviously.

[dadofandrew]

Only thing I would add is that it sounds like Weeks, JJ, and Escobar or Gamel are 3 of the IF's if the season started tomorrow. The Brewers scored the 2nd most runs in the leadoff spot in the NL, so tough to see that as a problem, Doug said. Specifically said a .365 or .370 OBP guy with no speed has struggled to score many runs when tried.

 

Probably the most bullish thing said was Gamel being as good as any LH hitting 3B that may be available, or hinted at.

[And That]

Not a fan of that phrasing. Its more all-encompassing of the leadoff's job, but it is obviously team dependent. He knows that, obviously.

To be devil's advocate and take it down to the most simplistic level, the end-all objective of any hitter is to score a run. And since the leadoff hitter nominally has more plate appearances than anyone else in the lineup, it makes some logical sense that the primary goal of the leadoff hitter should be to score... he's the run-scoring opportunity most often available.

[rluzinski]

"Melvin asked what was the most important thing for a lead off hitter and Homer side OBP, but Melvin said scoring runs."

 

I swear that Melvin plays dumb for the media. Gosh, I hope so.

 

As for Gamel, doesn't he have a decent shot of being Braun-bad at 3B. But despite Gamel having a sstick no where near Braun's, we are going to try it all over again?

[danzig6767]

"Melvin asked what was the most important thing for a lead off hitter and Homer side OBP, but Melvin said scoring runs."

 

I swear that Melvin plays dumb for the media. Gosh, I hope so.

I've heard Melvin over the years so to many things that would make the statheads cringe for me to believe he's just playing dumb for the media. My impression of Doug has always been that he's roughly a 50/50 mix of stats orientated thinking and the socalled old school baseball thinking.

[mkm13]

Technically, I think Melvin is right. The ability to score runs is the most important. It is difficult to score a lot of runs without a high OBP. So yes a high OBP is extremely important as well. You can have a high OBP but if you are as fast as Prince it doesn't mean quite as much as a leadoff hitter (yes, it is still important but does not mean quite as much if you have Ricky Henderson speed and baserunning skills). If your OBP is .015 lower but you are twice as fast and are a great baserunner, IMO that makes up for the OBP and makes you a better leadoff hitter.

[Ennder]

Scoring runs is more important than OBP so I don't get what the problem is. I'll gladly take a small dip in OBP if it is made up for with SB and extra doubles and triples that put the team in a better position to score runs.

[Invader3K]

Interesting to hear that they are really thinking of Gamel to start at 3B next year. I'm not sure if I'm excited by that fact, but it's interesting.

[twobrewers]

Then Melvin brought up on his own that they really could use another left handed bat in the lineup and were thinking about having Gamel playing 3rd next year.

I am obviously a big Gamel backer - but I doubt Gamel has any chance of starting the season as the 3B. He really needed to play in the Arizona Winter League. His injury alone will set back his development. (Defensively at least)

 

I would say the bigger problem is that if the Brewers believe Gamel can play 3B, what to do with Escobar and Hardy. You can't ask someone to move twice.

[dadofandrew]

If you run like me, a .400 OBP won't help. Doug is making the correct point that a slightly higher OBP doesn't make up for Stairs speed (versus Weeks' speed or Cameron/Molitor excellent baserunning).

 

I'm not sure what the confusion is either.

[Ennder]

You could certainly start with Branyan/Hall in a platoon at 3B until Branyan gets hurt and then go to Gamel as your backup.

[colbyjack]

I was a little surprised when I heard Melvin say the same thing about Gamel/Escobar, but I'm not buying it. Sure, if the '09 season opened today I could imagine one of them being in the lineup, but there's a lot of time between now and opening day, and the team clearly is making moves knowing that it is coming off of its first postseason appearance in 26 years. Melvin made comments about being hesitant to place a rookie in the lineup a year ago and dealing with the growing pains for a ballclub with big expectations (I think in reference to Gwynn, although that may have been Melvin-speak for "Gwynn sucks"). You would think expectations now are even greater moving forward, which you have to believe is a big reason the team is intent on finding a manager with big-league experience/success.

 

Unless the team re-signs Sabathia or does something even crazier financially, I think the team will pursue every avenue possible before ending up with either Gamel or Escobar in the everyday lineup. Although I must say that I agree with him in that the available options right now aren't that promising.

 

However, it brings up a very interesting question: If you had to choose the left-side of the infield for 2009, would you take Escobar and Hardy at SS/3B and deal with Escobar's growing pains at the plate, or go with Hardy/Gamel and deal with Gamel's growing pains in the field?

 

I go Escobar/Hardy. D-Fence!

[dadofandrew]

I'd say Gamel because he fits the LH bat need, and also gives them time to decide what to do with JJ.

[ILuvDaBush]

I'd probably go with...Gamel/Escobar if it got us an ace pitcher. Best to keep things fluid, much like Escobar and the Hurricance were promoted simultaneously at one point in their ascensions.

[sbrylski]

Scoring runs is more important than OBP so I don't get what the problem is. I'll gladly take a small dip in OBP if it is made up for with SB and extra doubles and triples that put the team in a better position to score runs.

 

The way I interpreted it is that he would see player X that scored 100 runs as a better leadoff hitter than player Y who scored 80 runs, yet player X had Babe Ruth hitting behind him and player Y had Craig Counsell.

 

How well there overall abilities (largely OBP, also doubles power, and speed) lend themselves to scoring runs is fine, but how many runs a player has scored in the past is not a good thought process.

 

And Doug's "the Brewers scored the 2nd most runs in the leadoff spot in the NL, so tough to see that as a problem" comment is faulty too. There's two components here - the table setting and the run producing. Good run producers can make poor table setters look better than they are. Doug is making an assumption that the table setting is fine and ignoring the other factors that go into creating the results he's basing his assumption on.

 

(I think I'm getting worse at writing...)

[Schlitz001]

The way I interpreted it is that he would see player X that scored 100 runs as a better leadoff hitter than player Y who scored 80 runs, yet player X had Babe Ruth hitting behind him and player Y had Craig Counsell.

I guess it's in the interpretation. I take it to mean, if the same lineup is following your leadoff hitter, wouldn't you rather have the guy who scores a few more runs than the guy who gets on base a few more times. Runs win games afterall........or is that too simplistic.

 

I don't think I'm ready to see either Gamel or Escobar already at the start of next season, but if that's what it comes down to I think Escobar is the better choice. I think a slow progression at the plate is easier to handle (ala Hardy) then struggles in the field (ala Braun). Although with a bat like Braun's it was a little easier to forgive the miscues, which I don't think we'll get from Gamel right away.

 

BTW, great summary dpapo.

[MNBrew]

I guess it's in the interpretation. I take it to mean, if the same lineup is following your leadoff hitter, wouldn't you rather have the guy who scores a few more runs than the guy who gets on base a few more times. Runs win games afterall........or is that too simplistic.

Not overly simplistic at all. Stats can tell lots of versions of the story -- what can, did, & perhaps should & should've happened. Sooner or later, though, you do need to get away from the hypotheticals and deal with the simple reality that Schlitz001 brought it up.

[sbrylski]

I guess it's in the interpretation. I take it to mean, if the same lineup is following your leadoff hitter, wouldn't you rather have the guy who scores a few more runs than the guy who gets on base a few more times. Runs win games afterall........or is that too simplistic.

Not overly simplistic at all. Stats can tell lots of versions of the story -- what can, did, & perhaps should & should've happened. Sooner or later, though, you do need to get away from the hypotheticals and deal with the simple reality that Schlitz001 brought it up.

 

But runs attributed to a single player are scored in context - and each player is the only one to have played in his unique context. Rickie Weeks scored a lot of runs, Jason Kendall did not. That does not mean Weeks is a better leadoff hitter or better at scoring runs than Kendall. Swap them in the lineup, and you might get opposite results. But we know that Weeks is a better leadoff hitter than Kendall, because we look at the traits that make a leadoff hitter successful - OBP, SLG, and speed, in order of importance. The best run scorer (and leadoff hitter) is not the person that scored the most runs - its the person that is the best at scoring runs.

[clancyphile]

Then Melvin brought up on his own that they really could use another left handed bat in the lineup and were thinking about having Gamel playing 3rd next year.

I am obviously a big Gamel backer - but I doubt Gamel has any chance of starting the season as the 3B. He really needed to play in the Arizona Winter League. His injury alone will set back his development. (Defensively at least)

 

I would say the bigger problem is that if the Brewers believe Gamel can play 3B, what to do with Escobar and Hardy. You can't ask someone to move twice.

Simple: Escobar replaces Counsell as the backup 2B/SS, and the Brewers save about $2.75 million.

[trwi7]

Simple: Escobar replaces Counsell as the backup 2B/SS, and the Brewers save about $2.75 million.

Why would we waste Escobar's service time by using him as a backup?

[EbbaStClaire]

The emphasis on improving Gamel's defense has been throwing mechanics. Gamel was throwing to a converted outfielder last year who wasn't considered a very good defensive player and unfortunately if he played 3rd base for the Brewers next year he would not be getting any 'saves' from that first basemen either.

[Ennder]

Weeks is not a bad leadoff hitter, I just think he is a worse hitter because he hits leadoff. I think he 'tries to be a leadoff hitter' too much and he would be better served being more aggressive.

 

As for Gamel what do you expect Melvin to say? Is he going to say we desperately need a 3B and we'll overpay to get one? Of course he is going to play down the needs of the team because the winter meetings are coming up and he is going to be looking at trade offers probably including a 3B.