Is low OBP a characteristic of Doug Melvin's teams?

[Oldcity]

With the debate over whether Melvin should have received an extension and whether he's more valuable to the team than Jack Z, I wanted to take a look at one of the biggest criticisms directed towards him: low on-base percentage, and more specifically, ignoring OBP and referring to slugging more than he should.

Those characteristics are a fair description of the Brewers the last few years, but are they a fair description of Doug Melvin as a GM? I was hoping to find some answers to that, but I'm not sure I did. Anyway, here are offensive numbers for each MLB team he's assembled as a GM. I did expand more on this at my blog, if anyone is interested. I decided to post it here as well because I was hoping to get more opinions on it, because I'm not sure myself.

 

1995 TexasRangers

OBP: .336 (10^th of 14 teams)

SLG: .410 (10^th of 14 teams)

Runs: 691 (11^th of 14 teams)

1996 TexasRangers

OBP: .359 (5^th of 14 teams)

SLG: .469 (4^th of 14 teams)

Runs: 928 (4^th of 14 teams)

1997 TexasRangers

OBP: .333 (9^th of 14 teams)

SLG: .438 (4^th of 14 teams)

Runs: 807 (7^th of 14 teams)

1998 TexasRangers

OBP: .356 (2^nd of 14 teams)

SLG: .462 (3^rd of 14 teams)

Runs: 940 (2^nd of 14 teams)

1999 TexasRangers

OBP: .362 (3^rd of 14 teams)

SLG: .479 (1^st of 14 teams)

Runs: 945 (2^nd of 14 teams)

2000 TexasRangers

OBP: .352 (6^th of 14 teams)

SLG: .446 (7^th of 14 teams)

Runs: 848 (9^th of 14 teams)

2001 TexasRangers

OBP: .344 (4^th out of 14 teams)

SLG: .471 (1^st out of 14 teams)

Runs: 890 (3^rd out of 14 teams)

2003 Brewers

OBP: .329 (11^th out of 16 teams)

SLG: .419 (8^th out of 16 teams)

Runs: 714 (11^th out of 16 teams)

2004 Brewers

OBP: .321 (12^th out of 16 teams)

SLG: .387 (16^th out of 16 teams)

Runs: 634 (15^th out of 16 teams)

2005 Brewers

OBP: .331 (9^th out of 16 teams)

SLG: .423 (4^th out of 16 teams)

Runs: 726 (6^th out of 16 teams)

2006 Brewers

OBP: .327 (13^th out of 16 teams)

SLG: .420 (12^th out of 16 teams)

Runs: 730 (14^th out of 16 teams)

2007 Brewers

OBP: .329 (11^th out of 16 teams)

SLG: .456 (2^nd out of 16 teams)

Runs: 801 (5^th out of 16 teams)

2008 Brewers

OBP: .325 (10^th out of 16 teams)

SLG: .431 5^th out of 16 teams)

Runs: 750 (7^th out of 16 teams)

Here's where I have trouble trying to draw a conclusion from this. I wasn't sure what I expected to find when I looked at these numbers. If I would have seen relatively low OBPs in Texas I'd have felt safe saying that Melvin either largely ignores on-base percentage or prefers slugging percentage, but that wasn't really reflected overall by his Ranger teams. With the Brewers, though, the highest OBP in any season since Melvin has been here is .331. I'm willing to give him a pass on his first two years here, as those were clearly rebuilding teams-even 2005's team overachieved a bit to reach .500. But the Brewers have not improved in one of the most crucial areas of the game since Melvin has been here.

There could be a number of reasons for this. Higher payroll in Texas. Inherited players in Texas were better than inherited players in Milwaukee. Strategy of scouting directors in Texas vs. in Milwaukee. There are almost too many variables in play to draw a conclusion.

 

I'm wondering what others think of this. For those who believe it's a trend with Melvin, how do you explain the very good offensive seasons in Texas? And for those who don't believe it's a trend, how do you explain the lack of discipline by the Brewers since he's been here?

My feeling is that the good offenses in Texas were more a result of the high payroll (Alex Rodriguez, Rafael Palmeiro) and players he inherited (Juan Gonzalez, Rusty Greer) than a conscious effort to add OBP, but I could definitely swayed.

 

[Ennder]

I felt they made several decisions that should have improved the OBP in 2008 but enough players underperformed expectations that it didn't end up improving. Cameron was an OBP upgrade over Jenkins. Kendall was over Estrada. Kapler over Mench. Graffanino was gone etc.

 

However Weeks and Fielder both had dips in OBP and Hall and Hart were black holes in OBP.

 

If I were going to 'blame' anyone for it I'd go straight to the source of most of our lineup which is Jack Z, he seems to have favored power over contact in general in his drafts.

[dadofandrew]

You can't just add OBP these days, as Beane showed everyone how important it was. He's moved onto other things, as OBP is expensive.

[Brawndo the Thirst Mutilat]

If I were going to 'blame' anyone for it I'd go straight to the source of most of our lineup which is Jack Z, he seems to have favored power over contact in general in his drafts.

I think power vs. contact is a false dichotomy, at least as it relates to OBP. I see a lot of posts where it seems like people posit that there are two types of hitters:

 

1) Low AVG, high K sluggers with low OBP (We have too many!)

2) High AVG, low K slappers who hit lots of line drive singles and have high OBP (We don't have enough!)

 

In actuality, the yearly OBP leader board is routinely populated mostly by sluggers that drew a crapload of walks, and didn't bad-luck into a .230 AVG that year. The Adam Dunns, Jim Thomes, and Travis Hafners of the world typically tend to cream the Mark Lorettas and Ryan Theriots in OBP.

 

Our problem isn't a lack of focus on contact hitters in the draft, it's that our sluggers don't control the strike zone well enough. That has traditionally been viewed as an instructional failure -- but I think that's mostly wrong. I think that strike zone judgment ought to be treated as the 6th tool...and maybe the most important one. So I guess maybe I think it does still come back to Jack Z...but not because he's focused on power hitters in the draft. Drafting power hitters is the best way to find OBP, but they have to be selective power hitters instead of clueless hackers.

[sbrylski]

In every category, OBP / SLG / R, the trend line for Melvin's team ranks is positive. He's adding runs anyway he can - with the Brewers it just hasn't come with OBP.

[Ennder]

Brawndo the Thirst Mutilator wrote:

---

Our problem isn't a lack of focus on contact hitters in the draft, it's that our sluggers don't control the strike zone well enough.

Strike zone control is part of contact though. The difference between Pujols and Howard is Pujols makes better contact largely because of strike zone recognition and Howard has more power, Pujols is a much better player. Jack Z has always favored SLG over OBP in his drafting imo. He will gladly take the big HR hitter who doesn't BB enough and doesn't play good defense while other teams pass those guys by.

 

My point was I don't think Melvin has shown a lack of understanding of OBP with the players he has brought in but it is hard to tell because so few of the important parts of the lineup were brought in by the GM, most have come from the draft.

[Brawndo the Thirst Mutilat]

I certainly wouldn't dispute that Pujols is better at making contact than Howard. It's just that when you say "contact hitter", Albert Pujols isn't exactly the first guy that pops into my head. And for the most part, the kind of guy that I do think of (Ichiro, for example) is a lot worse at getting on base than people tend to think.

[Ennder]

Ahh but I didn't say contact hitter http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif. I just said he favors power over contact. That can be as simple as picking the .330 OBP, .450 SLG guy over the .370 OBP, .400 SLG guy even the the OBP guy is probably a better player.

[dhoffman19]

I think power vs. contact is a false dichotomy, at least as it relates to OBP.

Well said. I agree completely. Even guys like Adam Dunn routinely have among the highest OBPs in the league b/c they take a lot of pitches and walk a lot - and when they do swing it's usually at a hittable pitch. Of course it also leads to a lot of K's since Dunn takes a lot of called strikes and has a long swing - but that doesn't neccessarily mean a low OBP.

 

The Brewers biggest problem on offense is a lack of plate discipline. Most of the guys seem to hack at anything they think they can get a bat on. I'm not exactly sure how to fix it since it's tough to say if it's an instructional issue or of they are just drafting guys who lack that "skill." However, it almost seems to be an organizational philosophy to be "aggressive" at the plate.

[Oldcity]

My point was I don't think Melvin has shown a lack of understanding of OBP with the players he has brought in but it is hard to tell because so few of the important parts of the lineup were brought in by the GM, most have come from the draft.

This is what I was trying to get at as well. The Brewers have had poor discipline since Melvin had been here, but many of the players were already in the Brewers' system when he arrived--which is why I'm not convinced it's Melvin's issue.