Final Offense+Defense results

[Ennder]

Final OPD results got posted today. This is a stat that attempts to assign an overall batting+fielding value to a player though I don't think it works with baserunning. It measures runs created by the hitting + runs saved by defense. It also adjusts for positions so Fielder is penalized for playing 1B etc. Link below has much more details.

 

http://www.baseballthinkf...plus_defense_opd_results/

 

Overall we rated 6th in the NL which seems about right. STL was #1 which I have to agree with again, that is a really bad pitching staff that put up decent numbers because of very good fielding.

 

Team stats showed us around average overall at 1B, 3B, C, SS. We were +9.9 at 2B, +18.2 at CF, +14.6 at LF and -11.9 at RF. Branyan saved the 3B stats or they would have been a disaster.

 

16.3 Braun 15.6 off, 0.7 def

12.9 Cameron 10 off, 2.8 def

11.3 Branyan 7.6 off, 3.7 def

8.1 Weeks 6.4 off, 1.7 def

7.0 Kapler 5.7 off, 1.3 def

4.6 Durham 3.9 off, 1.4 def

5.3 Hardy 13.3 off, -8.7 def

4.2 Kendall -5.6 off, 9.7 def

-0.6 Fielder 13.6 off, -14.2 def

-4.0 Counsell -7.1 off, 3.1 def

-6.6 Hall -13.8 off, 7.3 def

-11.9 Hart -13 off, 1.2 def

 

About what I expected. Weeks and Cameron are underrated by many on this site. Fielder loses most of his value with his defense, he needs to be a .900+ OPS guy to really have strong value. Counsell, Hall and Hart all hurt the team this season.

[sbrylski]

5.3 Hardy 13.3 off, -8.7 def

 

Another metric dissing Hardy's defense. Interesting.

[Ennder]

5.3 Hardy 13.3 off, -8.7 def

 

Another metric dissing Hardy's defense. Interesting.

 

Seems like most defensive metrics mostly agree on 9 of 10 players and Hardy falls into that 1 of 10 that they completely disagree on. I've seen him listed as great, average and terrible using different metrics.

[Brawndo the Thirst Mutilat]

Seems like most defensive metrics mostly agree on 9 of 10 players and Hardy falls into that 1 of 10 that they completely disagree on. I've seen him listed as great, average and terrible using different metrics.

 

Agreed. Hardy was 5.9 above average according to this guy, who has a freely available project similar to Chris Dial's O+D. When that happens (the metrics can't agree), it's probably best to fall back on what your eyes tell you. Mine tell me he's a little above average, and judging from Tango's fan scouting reports, most of you agree with me.

[JoeHova]

It's been my opinion for awhile that Dial weights defense too much. Defense is very important, etc., but a lot of his results seem pretty far off. The effort is commendable, of course. It's just hard to believe that a first baseman (the least important defensive position, by far) could give back as many runs with his glove as the best hitter on the team gains with the bat.

[Ennder]

It's been my opinion for awhile that Dial weights defense too much. Defense is very important, etc., but a lot of his results seem pretty far off. The effort is commendable, of course. It's just hard to believe that a first baseman (the least important defensive position, by far) could give back as many runs with his glove as the best hitter on the team gains with the bat.

 

The best 1B defensively in the NL was Pujols and he got a +14.5 in defense. There were only 6 players in the NL with over a +10. The defensive numbers don't feel that off to me.

 

The positional penalties get rolled into the defensive side of things I believe so Fielder loses some points just for being a 1B instead of a more neutral position. Carlos Lee and Brad Hawpe were the only two defensive players worse than Fielder in the rankings in the NL. He really was that bad at 1B. He had a good but not amazing season offensively and was one of the worst 5 defensive players in the NL. I can see him being pretty average overall.

[danzig6767]

I don't read up on any of these stat sites, but on the defensive metrics, do they factor in say a firstbasemans ability or inability to be good at scooping throws in the dirt (Prince is terrible at this) or things like all the double plays Weeks botched by poor throws or bobbles that resulted in only one out being made, thus no error called?

[benji]

These are really interesting numbers. Thanks for the link. I never would have thought that Brian Giles would be worth so much. He is more than double Braun's number. With Brewers winning 90 games and having no one on this list in the top 30, it must mean that the pitching was extremely good. The old adage of pitching wins . . .

[Brawndo the Thirst Mutilat]

I don't read up on any of these stat sites, but on the defensive metrics, do they factor in say a firstbasemans ability or inability to be good at scooping throws in the dirt (Prince is terrible at this) or things like all the double plays Weeks botched by poor throws or bobbles that resulted in only one out being made, thus no error called?

 

As far as I know, nobody has figured out a good way of doing this so far, since the two companies that have stringers at every game (STATS and BIS) don't track anything other than where a hit goes (the field is divided into a bunch of different zones) and what kind of hit it is (GB, LD, FB, "fliner"). All the defensive metrics are attempts to compare a given player's rate of turning that ball into an out to the league average rate at which that ball is turned into an out.

 

The two things you listed and the effects of defensive shifting are the most notable holes in the current state of defensive research (of which I am aware, at least). They are problems, to be sure, but I think that you can still get a pretty good idea whether a guy is helping or hurting his team with his glovework, and usually at least some approximate notion of about how drastically, as long as you are careful to make sure that the various advanced metrics (whatever methodology is used to turn plays made and missed into runs and whichever set of source data is used) are all telling you more or less the same thing.

 

If, after at least a couple of seasons, you're still not seeing any sort of consensus (as with Hardy for some reason), I don't think any of the people doing this sort of research are using a system sufficiently better than the others that you can just believe them over everybody else. Which isn't to say that some of these aren't better and some aren't worse. I think that Dewan's , MGL's UZR, and Dial's system are all very good. Non-zone systems like BP's FRAA are much less reliable.

 

In effect, you are assuming that the guy is average at all the stuff that is in a blind spot. For most players, I don't know that that's a crazy assumption. Even for guys like Weeks and Fielder, who seem really atrocious at the respective skills you listed, I'm sceptical that the results are impacted by more than 5 or 10 runs. As a for instance, Weeks actually turned 2 more double plays than the average 2B in the number of innings he played (84 vs. 82 expected). Given that the Brewers put less runners on than the average team (so if anything he should've had less opportunities), I find it difficult to believe that Weeks could've choked away more than 10 or so more DPs than the average 2B would have and still met his DP quota for the year. I saw him blow a bunch of them, just like everybody. Maybe every 2B blows a bunch of them. Maybe his arm strength and release time are such that when he doesn't totally duff it in a hugely noticeable and irritating fashion, he's actually converting on a few extra DPs that an average 2B's throw would've been a split second late. I don't really know.

 

I do think it's important not to be too dismissive because of the blind spots. Batting Average, for example, has huge blind spots that we've come to recognize are better measured by OBP (how often do you walk?) and SLG (what kind of hits were they?) respectively. But for the century that everybody was using AVG, they were still better off with AVG than they would have been just using their eyes and trying to look at how pretty some dude's swing was, or maybe trying to remember how often it seemed like he got hits.

[zzzmanwitz]

i really want to know how JJ can possibly be that low. Sure, he doesn't have the best range, that is a given. But to put his defense as a detriment to his offense is ridiculous. I just don't understand defensive metrics.

[logan82]

SLG can be misleading as well. Players with a large BA/OBP split will have a lower SLG than the same player with a higher BA and the same OBP. Even if the only difference is the player with the higher BA had singles instead of walks.

[Fatter than Joey]

I would have thought Cameron's D would have been higher.

[Ennder]

I would have thought Cameron's D would have been higher.

 

He wasn't that high last year either, I think he is just getting old and slowing down.

[brewerguy71]

No surprise about Hardy really. He is an average defender. And for a "defense first" position, that adds up. Nice offense for the position, but defense is key in a shortstop. He does 2 things well defensively, throw and field balls that are hit right at him.

 

I think that when Escobar finally does arrive, a lot of Brewer fans will realize how much the team was set back by Hardy's defense.

[rluzinski]

Also remember that these are sample statistics, not an estimate of true skill. They tell you the average run value would expect from the offensive and defensive performance of the player. If this was an estimate of true skill, it would use multiple years and be regressed. And the regression would be larger for the defensive side of the metric, since a season of defensive stats is roughly equal to a half season of offensive stats.

 

Dial's is like a poor man's play-by-play defensive metric, correct? He starts with zone rating and estimates chances? I think it works reasonably well but I'd like to see Hardy's UZR or (Dewan) numbers. Someone should bother Michael Lichtman(sp) (MGL) to give us his UZR for 2008 and his projected UZR for 2009. I want to say that I remember it being good in 06 and not so good in 07. If it's bad in 08, I might start getting nervous.

 

Defensive metrics are just another tool. They should not be dismissed nor taken as fact.

[TooLiveBrew]

No surprise about Hardy really. He is an average defender. And for a "defense first" position, that adds up. Nice offense for the position, but defense is key in a shortstop. He does 2 things well defensively, throw and field balls that are hit right at him.

I think that when Escobar finally does arrive, a lot of Brewer fans will realize how much the team was set back by Hardy's defense.

On the flip-side, I think that when Escobar finally does arrive, a lot of Brewers fans will realize just how hard it is to find a bat like Hardy's at SS.

I certainly disagree strongly that Hardy's defense was as bad as this model indicates, but I won't disagree that (all in all) J.J. is an average SS. I'm inclined to rank him myself as 'above average', and that's with watching quite a bit of baseball around the league this season (though I'm certainly no expert). I really think the combo of the kind of offense Hardy brings with avg. to above-avg. defense is harder to come by than the combo of defense & offense that Escobar brings (& I am saying that assuming Escobar as an elite defensive SS). Alcides is going to have to hit quite a bit better than he has to this point to be noticeably better than Counsell once he gets to the bigs. Then the debate thickens a bit, beyond 'which O+D combo is harder to find'... to 'which O+D combo is more valuable'? I would think the first question would impact the answer to the second, though that's just my guess.

[MJLiverock]

Why are there so many doubt about Escobar's bat when comparing him to Hardy? They have virtually identical lines in the minors at the years where they played A+/AA and a full year of AA.

 

Escobar at A+/AA .306/.331/.366/.697 with 22 steals 63% successful, 18 BB's, 71 ks or 1/7 AB

Hardy at A+/AA .273/.313/.375/.688 with 10 steals 67% successful, 19 BB's, 38ks or 1/13 AB

 

Escobar full year AA .328/.363/.434/.797 with 34 steals 81% succesful, 31 BBs, 82 ks or 1/7.04 AB's

Hardy full year AA .279/.367/.428/.795 with 6 steals 60% successful, 58 BB, 54K or 1/8.77 AB's

 

Looks like Hardy took a few more walks but hit for a lower average during the full AA season and K'd a touch less. Escobar steals more bases and has hit with a better average and similar power to Hardy.

 

I really don't see anything there that screams Escobar can't be a decent ML hitting SS when compared to what Hardy did at the same levels.

[Ennder]

Because Escobar's stats are so heavily BABIP inflated that people don't believe it will carry over to the majors. A lot of that AVG is in bunt singles right now. He hits a ton of ground balls so it seems unlikely he'll develop any power and he doesn't BB much and he does K an average amount so it is pretty unlikely he'll carry a good OBP.

 

It is too early to really know what he'll be yet of course but the biggest issue is that people want Escobar up in the majors in 2009 and I think that will be a disaster. Give him at least 1 full season in AAA before worrying about it.

[TooLiveBrew]

The first thing that jumps out to me is Escobar's insanely high .380 BABIP this past season at Huntsville. I'm having a hard time finding what Hardy's BABIP was at AA, though.

 

I crudely calculate Hardy's 2003 Huntsville BABIP at .297 (I used Escobar's 2008 total of 7 sac. flies bc I couldn't find any SF total in 2003 for Hardy... if anything, he'd probably have had a few more). There was a ton of luck in Escobar matching Hardy's offensive output at the same level, and Hardy was in his age-20 season at Double-A... compared to Escobar in his age-21 season in 2008.

[endaround]

The other big thing is that Hunstville is much less the pitchers park it was when Hardy was there.

[Ennder]

I went straight to the source and asked Chris about Hardy and this was his reply.

 

When I watch Hardy, he doesn't look good to me. BIS zones are different and evidently smaller, but when I asked John about that he said he wasn't sure that all of the BIS zones were within the ZR zones. I don't know.

 

The possibility exists that he gets few line drives, but that shouldn't amount to more than about 3 runs if he is REALLY getting zero. So, I don't know.

 

When he gets OOZ plays in BIS, those could be regular plays in ZR.

 

I'll be interested to see how he rates in other systems as they become available.

[TooLiveBrew]

To provide further context on Escobar's performance at Huntsville this season, the MLE (major-league-equivalent) tool at Minorleaguesplits.com (source for my numbers on Escobar) spit out this line for his 2008 Double-A totals:

 

.282/.318/.361/.679, with a BABIP of .328 (which would seem high to expect from a guy with as little power as Escobar posseses)

[MJLiverock]

If Escobar has such little power how did he manage to slug at the same level as Hardy both years? I am not trying to be a wise cracker but literally wondering why his slugging is discounted so much vs. Hardy at the same level. Does he just leg out out more weak doubles and triples that are singles for Hardy (who is woefully slow) versus hitting it out of the park like Hardy? The age 21 or 20 probably doesn't matter much, it really is only 8 months difference in the respective age at each level.

 

In their full AA seasons Hardy hit 26 double, 0 triples, 12 HR vs. Escobar at 24 doubles, 5 triples, 8 HRs. The higher BA contributes to his slugging offsetting some of the lower HR numbers along with a lot more triples. I for one wouldn't mind having a guy who hit for a few less HR's if he carried a .300 BA since the Brewers seem to really struggle in that category. (yes I know OBP but still would be nice to have a guy who could actually get a hit rather than hit .240 and hope for a .340 OBP like so many middle infielders and Brewer players look). Hopefully, he could develop into a leadoff hitter the Brewers have been sorely lacking.

 

I agree with Ender or endaround, whoever, said Escobar wouldn't likely hit .330 his rookie year. I think we all remember how much Hardy struggled when he came up but I thinnk it is reasonable to expect above SS average offensive numbers eventually out of him. He is listed as 6'1", if accurate, which isn't small for a SS.

 

More and more I like the idea of moving Hardy to third if they can't find a decent LH platoon guy for Hall or an everyday 3B. I would like Escobar to get a year at AAA but could see where he may not.

[TooLiveBrew]

If Escobar has such little power how did he manage to slug at the same level as Hardy both years?

 

The insane BABIP in 2008, coupled with what endaround mentioned about Huntsville playing much more as a pitcher's park in 2003 (when Hardy was there), is what made them so close in terms of full-season, Double-A numbers. And don't forget that Hardy posted his line a year younger/earlier. I'm sure there are other factors I'm overlooking that better-versed people won't miss.

 

 

More and more I like the idea of moving Hardy to third if they can't find a decent LH platoon guy for Hall or an everyday 3B. I would like Escobar to get a year at AAA but could see where he may not.

 

What complicates this is that Hardy has said he would not be open to moving off SS. It could cost him some big money.

[endaround]

And people are ignoring the fact that rushing Hardy like they did ended up being a really bad decision. Hardy wasn't ready and it cost the Brewers a full year of his service. Yes there is alway talks about how Hardy wasn't expected to hit, etc. but he was really a part time player in 2005.