Mariners Name Zduriencik GM -- Latest: Blengino, McNamara Join Him (reply #123)

[bball123h]

For some perspective, here are the 2 picks before and after our selection since 2000:

 

2000

-----

Mark Phillips

Joe TOrres

Dave Krynzel

Joe Borchard

Shaun Boyd

 

2001

------

Chris Burke

Kenny Baugh

Mike Jones

Casey Kotchman

Jqke Gatreau

 

2002

---------

Clint Everts

Zach Grienke

Prince Fielder

Scott Moore

Jeff Francis

 

2003

---------

Delmon YOung

Rickie Weeks

Kyle Sleeth

Tim Stauffer

Chris Lubanski

 

2004

-----------

Philip Humber

Jeff Niemann

Mark Rogers

Jeremy Sowers

Homer Bailey

 

2005

-----------

Jeff Clement

Ryan Zimmerman

Ryan Braun

Ricky Romero

Troy Tulowitzki

 

2006

-------------

Travis Snider

Christopher Marrero

Jeremy Jeffress

Mark Antonelli

Kyle Drabek

 

2007

------------

Matt Wieters

Ross Detwiler

Matt Laporta

Casey Weathers

Jarod Parker

 

2008

-----------

Aaron Hicks

Ethan Martin

Brett Lawrie

David Cooper

Ike Davis

 

The draft is a crapshoot, and Jack won way more than most teams, especially given the talent surrounding each pick.

[knowitall]

I guess my question is how you can say he "missed on first round picks five of nine years".

 

My misses are Kryzel, Jones, Rogers, Weeks, and Jeffress. I include Weeks because I don't think he would have ever made the bigs if he weren't picked so high (2 overall) and was pretty much rushed up because of it, but that whole 2003 draft was not great anyway, so maybe I'm too harsh on him there. I'm not sold on Jeffress and have my doubts that he will ever get into the rotation consistantly, in spite of the high rankings on him. I think LaPorta and Lawrie will be decent big leaguers.

 

If I had to guess, I'd think it's quite likely that if you actually look around the league, very few teams would be able to surpass that success rate.

 

Seriously, I would love to see something like that to see really if teams to better than that. You're probably right. I think 50% success ratio on first round picks getting to the big leagues is the benchmark.

[PeaveyFury]

I'm not sold on Jeffress and have my doubts that he will ever get into the rotation consistantly, in spite of the high rankings on him.

 

So you consider Jeffress a miss because of your own gut feelings? That's not really fair at all, because while your gut feeling causes you to consider it a miss, his high status and success in the minor leagues would cause everyone else to call him a hit so far.

 

Seriously, I would love to see something like that to see really if teams to better than that. You're probably right. I think 50% success ratio on first round picks getting to the big leagues is the benchmark.

 

As it was posted elsewhere in this thread, here's the rest of the NL Central:

 

Cubs: 1

Cards: 0

Pirates: 2

Reds: 1

Astros: 1

 

So even Jack Z's 4 of 9 success rate with 1st round picks (by your standards of not including Jeffress) blow the rest of the division out of the water.

[endaround]

Did you see what Weeks did to AAA pitching? The fact you think a young player who has been slightly below average in his career should never have made the big leagues means your basis of comparison is way off.

[Ennder]

Weeks has been an above average hitter at 2B in his career so you are really stretching things by saying he wouldn't have made the big leagues if not picked where he was.

 

He also is probably the best of the first 6 players picked that year and only about 7 of the top 30 players in that draft have been as good or better than him. So if we missed on Weeks in that draft then pretty much every team but 5 or 6 missed on it.

[knowitall]

Did you see what Weeks did to AAA pitching? The fact you think a young player who has been slightly below average in his career should never have made the big leagues means your basis of comparison is way off.

 

Weeks could never field at an acceptable big league level because he doesn't have the soft hands - and hitting AAA pitching should not be the only measuring stick, especially for a middle infielder. You can't tell me that he wasn't rushed to the big leagues defensively and they just hoped he would make progress like Braun and hoped he could hit. I think the jury is no longer out on this pick, but again, there wasn't much out there in 2003.

 

As it was posted elsewhere in this thread, here's the rest of the NL Central:

Cubs: 1

Cards: 0

Pirates: 2

Reds: 1

Astros: 1

So even Jack Z's 4 of 9 success rate with 1st round picks (by your standards of not including Jeffress) blow the rest of the division out of the water.

 

I haven't looked at this info , but if its right, that IS horrible. Sounds about right by looking at it. But, what about the rest of MLB? If he is right around the benchmark at 50%, give or take, then he's pretty much and average GM. We need better than average as a small market team, but we made progress in the last eight years, that's for sure.

[endaround]

You're right the jury isn't out, its a good pick by any account.

[Ennder]

Weeks was not one of the 6 or 7 worst 2B in baseball defensively last year(he wasn't the worst on the team either, Durham was) so again if he can't handle 2B then there a lot of players out there that can't handle it. I can't find a single defensive metric that says Weeks was terrible defensively last year and my eyes didn't see terrible defense either, just erratic. He wasn't great but he has shown quite a bit of improvement.

[pogokat]

where is the benchmark of 50% coming from?

 

and Jack Z. wasn't the gm...

[colbyjack]

I was kind of coming from the angle that despite the near diety worship Jack and Doug receive here there are other teams that have built from within and via the trade to a tune of equal or more success than the Brewers have over the past 8 years. I think we all get caught up in the dark days of the 90's-02 when this team was possibly the worst in baseball. The front office has removed the team from laughingstock list but still needs improvement.

 

Without a doubt the front office and the team in general needs improvement, as so one should be ultimately happy until this organization wins it all. My argument is not to make it sounds as though Zduriencik or even Melvin are divine, I just can't fathom Zduriencik being viewed as anything but an above-average scouting director.

 

Just out of curiosity who are the 9 guys on the big league roster? It is nice and an achievment when drafted guys make it to the big leagues given the normal washout rates but how many were major contributors to getting in the playoffs? Given how bad the Brewers were it was bound to happen that a number of prospects would make the roster even 3 or 4 years ago through the sheer awfulness of the team.

 

Actually it's 12, and that was the postseason roster, so Ben Sheets wasn't even represented (a homegrown product, but a pre-Jack pick). Here's the list:

 

Braun

Escobar

Fielder

Gallardo

Gwynn

Hall

Hardy

Hart

Nelson

Parra

Stetter

Weeks

 

Two of these picks Zduriencik wasn't directly responsible for, Escobar and Hall. That means he supplied 40% of the postseason roster with players picked under his watch, which included more than half of the starting lineup and two starting pitchers.

 

And the Phillies definitely deserve major props for their own internal efforts: Utley, Howard, Rollins, Burrell, Hamels, Myers and Madson were all drafted by the Phillies.

 

As for missing on first-round picks, it's important to point out that the years Zduriencik did miss on his first-rounders he had a very astute later round selection. In 2000 is was Hart, 2001 it was Hardy, 2004 it was Gallardo.

 

I think it's unfair to write off Jeffress this soon. Weeks isn't a miss. He's an every day starter at second base. Regardless of your opinion of him, that alone makes him a hit. Not only are you not going to hit on all of your first-round draft picks, but you're also not going to draft a perennial all-star each time out.

 

As for other team's success in the first round, how about we look at what three teams generally praised for their scouting efforts, the Braves, Dodgers and Twins, did with their first rounders since 2000 (Braves/Dodgers/Twins):

 

2000: Adam Wainwright/Ben Diggins/Adam Johnson

2001: Macay McBride, Josh Burris/no first-round pick/Joe Mauer

2002: Jeff Franceour/James Loney/Denard Span

2003: No first-round pick/Chad Billingsley/Matt Moses

2004: No first-round pick/Scott Elbert, Blake DeWitt/Trevor Plouffe, Glen Perkins, Kyle Waldrop

2005: Joey Devine/no first-round pick/Matt Garza

2006: Cody Johnson/Clayton Kershaw, Bryan Morris/Chris Parmelee

2007: Jason Heyward/Chris Withrow/Ben Revere

2008: No first-round pick/Ethan Martin/Aaron Hicks, Carlos Gutierrez

 

All three teams had some supplemental picks sprinkled in, but I don't consider those picks true first-rounders. Looking at this, it's probably not a huge surprise that the Braves have slipped the past few years, since they haven't hit on many first-round picks. Both teams had some supplemental picks sprinkled in, but I don't consider those picks true first-rounders. The Dodgers had two very nice picks in Billlingsley and Kershaw, which is similar to the Brewers starting tandem of Gallardo and Parra. The Twins of course landed Joe Mauer, one of the brightest young stars in the game, and used Garza to acquire Delmon Young.

 

Otherwise, even these three clubs, generally regarded among the best in the business when it comes to scouting, miss more than they hit.

[sveumrules]

And the Phillies definitely deserve major props for their own internal efforts: Utley, Howard, Rollins, Burrell, Hamels, Myers and Madson were all drafted by the Phillies.

i've read the last couple days that the person primarily responsible for the acquisition of the above mentioned talent (arbuckle is his name, i think) quit the phillies after they picked amaro junior over him for gm. any chance melvin looks his way to fill one of the holes vacated by jack z, tony b or mcnamara?

[Thurston Fluff]

i've read the last couple days that the person primarily responsible for the acquisition of the above mentioned talent (arbuckle is his name, i think) quit the phillies after they picked amaro junior over him for gm. any chance melvin looks his way to fill one of the holes vacated by jack z, tony b or mcnamara?

 

 

One of the holes maybe but it won't be Scouting director. I just read this in the JS.

 

Scouting decision: Melvin said he planned to pick an internal candidate to replace scouting director Jack Zduriencik, who left to become Seattle's general manager. Melvin will choose between West Coast cross-checker Bruce Seid and Midwest cross-checker Ray Montgomery.

 

I think going internally is a good move. The scouting as a whole was good not just Jack. Makes sense to promote so you can keep good scouts happy withthe organization. It can also attract young up and comers to the organization because they see it's a good place to progress in their career.

[colbyjack]

Yes, a lot of Phillies fans think the team hired the wrong person to be the GM. Arbuckle or course wasn't happy to be passed over given everything he has done for the club, which includes selecting/signing Rollins, Burrell, Howard, Utley, Myers and Madson. He actually has been the ass't. GM with the Phillies since 2001, although he still overlooked the scouting, as Marti Wolever was technically the scouting director from 2002-present.

 

And I did a quick search and found a rather interesting link, although that would contradict with what Haudricourt just wrote:

 

http://www.philly.com/dai...uckle_quits_Phillies.html

 

Although the story notes that the Brewers could be interested in Arbuckle, not that they would.

[Thurston Fluff]

From what I read in the article it looks as though they were more or less looking at places that have a high level opening in the organization as opposed to specifics about the Brewers. He hasn't really been in contact with other teams yet.

The quote from the JS looked more like TH was speaking from what he was told by Melvin on the record. He used the words "Melvin said," which, to me, means it's straight from the horses mouth.

[brewmann04]

Wow maybe he worth a look into and see if he wants to come here

[JJHardy7]

We actually traded Wayne Franklin and Leo Estrella for Carlos Villanueva and Glenn Woolard.

 

Thanks trwi7. I don't know what I was thinking. I knew we traded for him, but completely screwed up what we gave up.

[EdgarDiazRocks]

Yes, a lot of Phillies fans think the team hired the wrong person to be the GM.

 

In a related note, Pat Gillick now seems like a shoe in for the HOF. 3 World Championships, 116 Win Season, 4 different teams to the playoffs . . .

 

take that Moneyball.

[1992casey]

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http://www.brewerfan.net/images/icons/lock.gifLocked in favor of new thread:

 

Bruce Seid replaces Jack Zduriencik

 

--1992casey

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