Mariners Name Zduriencik GM -- Latest: Blengino, McNamara Join Him (reply #123)

[clancyphile]

Wow. That is a lot of talent to replace. All part of being a successful franchise, but that will probably sting a bit.

I'm already aching.

[Invader3K]

I'd never heard of Blengino until like three days ago, and now there's all kinds of hand wringing on here about him leaving. I admit I don't peruse the minor league forums, but come on people...let's not overreact here.

[patrickgpe]

i think its more we don't want too loose someone who has helped us find talent. The bigger beef was that he was mentioned as a possible replacement.

[And That]

When a team with a top tier scouting department loses their top two guys, as well as three of their top five guys, it's a pretty big deal, regardless of whether people recognize the names of Blengino and McNamara or not. I would say it's probably a more informed reaction to be a little freaked out about this, than have a nonchalant opinion about our losses.

 

Which is not to say we can't recover. I've already said I think we'll probably be fine. But the loss of those three guys is actually a big deal, regardless of whether you know their names or not.

[agent39]

All 3 are tremendous baseball people. Tony also played a large role in getting Darren Ford, Steve Garrison, and Nick Tyson.

[bklynbrewcrew]

This scouting situation is very concerning to me. I really hope we dont wind up with someone that will be picking the likes of Kenny Felder and Antone Williamson in the first round. The draft will always be the lifeblood of this organization so hopefully Melvin hires the right guy. It really cant be underestimated how big of a loss Jack Z was.

[knowitall]

This scouting situation is very concerning to me. I really hope we dont wind up with someone that will be picking the likes of Kenny Felder and Antone Williamson in the first round. The draft will always be the lifeblood of this organization so hopefully Melvin hires the right guy. It really cant be underestimated how big of a loss Jack Z was.

We just had someone just like that - Jack Z. In seven years this is what he did -

Impact big leaguers: Prince and Brauner

Solid big leaguers: Hardy

Unproven big leaguers: Gallardo, Parra, Gwynn, Stetter

Marginal big leaguers or notable busts: Hart (yes Jon Hart), [Weeks, Jones, Krynzel, Rogers, Jeffress - all rd 1] . . . . and on and on and on and on and on.

Up and Coming prospects: Lawrie, LaPorta (gone), Gamel, Salome, Escobar

 

I'm sure I missed a couple, and it wasn't completely terrible, and the Brewers have great minor leagues, but this isn't exactly the Sistine Chapel with big leaguers. His legacy may live on in what the Brewers do on the next few years, because it appears his later years might be a little better than the early. I just hope that the peak of his work isn't a team that barely made the playoffs for the first time in 25 years in a weak National League that would have been about .500 again had it not been for selling our soul with CC.

[brewjihad]

Impact big leaguers: Prince and Brauner

Solid big leaguers: Hardy

Unproven big leaguers: Gallardo, Parra, Gwynn, Stetter

Marginal big leaguers or notable busts: Hart (yes Jon Hart), [Weeks, Jones, Krynzel, Rogers, Jeffress - all rd 1] . . . . and on and on and on and on and on.

Up and Coming prospects: Lawrie, LaPorta (gone), Gamel, Salome, Escobar

 

Or you could look at it as if every first round pick to make the majors is somewhat of a success. Look at the track records of teams like the Pirates, Nationals, Astros, and the like who are happy when one of their picks gets to the majors.

 

You'd count against him for picking Gallardo and Parra? Saying that picking Hart and Weeks were reasons he wasn't great and then lumping a AA pitcher like Jeffress in with them is a little excessive, I think. If you expect every first, second, and third round pick to be an all-star, you'll be very disappointed.

 

Edit: Oh yeah, and Hardy isn't an "Impact Big Leaguer"? He was 4th in OPS among all shortstops this year.

[colbyjack]

I'm really surprised by the reaction some people have towards Zduriencik, and I honestly don't know what people expect. I am often accused as a Zduriencik apologist, but I'm just a big fan of his because he accumulated a lot of talent, and without that talent the Brewers don't make the postseason in 2008. That's the bottom line.

 

Look around at other scouting directors to see what they're doing and how much big-league talent they have produced. Then look back at the Brewers 8-9 years ago to see how much talent the team had in their system. It's not a surprise that more talent increases a team's chances for winning, and you can make direct ties to the team's success to the team's ability to procure talent.

 

Did you know that the Brewers had 12 players on their postseason roster that were procured entirely within the Brewers system, and only two of those (Bill Hall and Alcides Escobar) were not the direct responsibility of Jack Zduriencik? Only one playoff team had more homegrown players, the Angels, who had an astonishing total of 17. The Dodgers had 11, the Red Sox and Cubs had 10, the Rays and Phillies each had 9, while the White Sox had 6.

 

And without the depth of talent the Brewers don't go out and acquire CC Sabathia. Plus, the Brewers haven't invested a lot of money into international free agents, meaning almost all of their talent has come via the draft.

 

If you honestly think someone can do a better job at accumulating talent serving as the team's scouting director, I really, really hope you're right, because the odds are definitely against that from happening. There is no comparison to the Brewers drafting efforts pre-Zduriencik to what he did from 2000-2008.

[bklynbrewcrew]

colbyjack, thanks for setting the record straight. I remember what this organization was before Jack Z came along and I fear it happening again. I really cant believe anyone would not realize what a great job Jack did as Brewers scouting director. He will be sorely missed and we really have to hope that the next guy turns out nearly as well as Jack did.

[MJLiverock]

I agree that Doug, Jack, and staff have done a much better job than the predecessors like Taylor and Bando but it isn't like they have built some sort of dynasty at the ML level or built a farm system that is the envy of every team out there. Compared to what was there when they started, yes, vast improvement. Reality is they built a team that squeaked into the playoffs and were promplty dismissed. In that same time organizations like Tampa, Colorado, Arizona, Florida, Minnesota, Cleveland, and A's have all built playoff and World Series teams through astue scouting, trading, and drafting. Even larger market teams like the Dodgers, Red Sox, Braves, and Angels have developed cosiderable young talent to go with the big payrolls. So while I apprciate the good work the front office has done and remember how bad it can be it isn't like the Brewers have become the envy of the league and have irreplacable people. The Brewers front office is probably somewhere between 11th-15th in the league so solidly in the middle third.

 

Going from this point forward it will be interesting to see if the front office can take the team to the next level of being a solid playoff challenger and World Series hopeful rather than the goals of .500 seasons and a potential wild card bid. Or will the current mini success be a flash in the pan?

[colbyjack]

I didn't mean to come across as stern as I probably sounded, but I do think we have been spoiled the past few years and that has altered our expectations.

 

Seeing Zduriencik move on also doesn't mean that the club is doomed to fail a few years down the road, as much of the success was based on the system that Zduriencik put in place, as he was good at evaluating scouts just like he was evaluating players. Hopefully those people he put in place are good enough to continue on without him (and since the team sounds as though they are going to promote from within, hopefully one of them has been groomed to follow in his footsteps).

 

And it's not like the scouting efforts are going to fall off a cliff, because part of the problem in the 90s was the lack of the dedication to scouting and player development by the Sal Bando ran teams, as we're not going to see a change in that philosophy as long as Doug Melvin is the GM. That actually changed immediately the day Dean Taylor took over when the ballclub openly re-committed themselves to those efforts.

 

I'm going to have a couple of stories up on the homepage in the next few weeks that tackles a few of these issues, so keep your eyes open for those.

[colbyjack]

Compared to what was there when they started, yes, vast improvement. Reality is they built a team that squeaked into the playoffs and were promplty dismissed. In that same time organizations like Tampa, Colorado, Arizona, Florida, Minnesota, Cleveland, and A's have all built playoff and World Series teams through astue scouting, trading, and drafting.

 

Since you brought up trading, when you're talking about the top to bottom player development, that credit goes to the GM. I noted that only the Angels had more homegrown talent on their playoff roster than the Brewers, as the rest of the roster is up to the GM to assemble, whether that talent comes from FA acquisitions, trades, waiver wire pickups, the Rule 5 draft, etc.

 

In other words, you can't start talking about the playoffs or the World Series too much because utlimately that responsibility is on the shoulders of the GM (I would also argue that the Brewers are only starting to move forward, as this team was not built as though it were 2008 or bust), not the scouting director.

 

It's funny that the Rays were brought up, because many people held the misconception that they were built off of all of the early first-round picks they have had recently. However, their team had "only" 9 homegrown players on their postseason roster vs. the Brewers 12.

 

For those that have questioned Zduriencik (who I don't think is perfect, but who I do believe is among the top 5-7 scouting directors in baseball), who do you think is better? Not what teams, but which scouting directors specifically have done a better job than Zduriencik during a similar time frame?

[knowitall]

I'm not trying to bury Jack Z, but I just don't see all the hype either. I'd say he was average at best - not terrible or even bad. My point is that you can't afford to miss on your first round picks five of nine years because that's where your big leaguers come from, and that's what he did. That said, scouting is HARD - no other way to say it and even the best out there miss. Finding a good replacement will not be easy, so I get your point where we don't want to go back to days where we stunk at drafting

 

It sounds like Melvin is set on one of his cross-checkers. Knowing the importance of scouting in a small market, this decision is probably more important that having a good GM. The GM can have an impact, and Melvin has, but we will never get any impact free agents here so you have to build through the draft. Heck, we can't even keep the guys in our own uniform. The Brewers would be better off paying the best scouting director out there and keep building through the draft. Hopefully that's one of our cross-checkers already.

[knowitall]

who do you think is better? Not what teams, but which scouting directors specifically have done a better job than Zduriencik during a similar time frame?

 

I have no idea - I'm much better at criticizing someone when they screw up than predicting if they will do a good job or not - thats your job. LOL

[logan82]

Unproven big leaguers: Gallardo, Parra, Gwynn, Stetter

Marginal big leaguers or notable busts: Hart (yes Jon Hart), [Weeks, Jones, Krynzel, Rogers, Jeffress - all rd 1] . . . . and on and on and on and on and on.

 

Gwynn unproven? Gwynn should be dropped down to the marginal level. He has a celing as a 4th-5th outfielder.

[MJLiverock]

Colbyjack, I get what you are saying regarding the trading not being part of Jack's responsibility but more a GM role but I would think the scouting department has to have some impact on the opinion and information the GM uses to evaluate the guys coming and going via the trade. Basically, that was why I lumped the whole thing into the front office role in building the team. I was kind of coming from the angle that despite the near diety worship Jack and Doug receive here there are other teams that have built from within and via the trade to a tune of equal or more success than the Brewers have over the past 8 years. I think we all get caught up in the dark days of the 90's-02 when this team was possibly the worst in baseball. The front office has removed the team from laughingstock list but still needs improvement.

 

Just out of curiosity who are the 9 guys on the big league roster? It is nice and an achievment when drafted guys make it to the big leagues given the normal washout rates but how many were major contributors to getting in the playoffs? Given how bad the Brewers were it was bound to happen that a number of prospects would make the roster even 3 or 4 years ago through the sheer awfulness of the team. I know guys like Fielder, Hardy, Hart, Braun came through the system. Gallardo was hurt and although technically on the roster didn't contribute much, Hall didn't help much, Weeks was average and contributed. Was Parra a Jack pick? Was Sheets prior to Jack? Other than these guys I can't think of who else was a contributor who came through the system via draft.

 

I also don't pretend to know the Phillies situation on their homegrown guys. I think Burrell, Howard, and Hamels were drafted by the Phils. Don't know about Rollins, Utley, Myers and Victorino or the other bullpen guys. I know Werth, Moyer, Lidge, Felize were picked via trade or FA.

 

Edit: Looks like the Phils drafted Howard, Utley, Rollins, Burrell so pretty much the heard of their lineup. Also drafted Hamels, Myers and Madson for sure.

[knowitall]

I'll take a stab at Jack's guys:

Weeks

Hart

Hardy

Braun

Fielder

Gwynn

Escobar

Villaneuva? not sure

Stetter

[JJHardy7]

Villaneuva? not sure

 

We traded Ginter for CV.

 

Gallardo is also on Jack's list.

[Ennder]

Hardy is the only name that really stands out on that list as someone we got for much better value than where we drafted them. Parra was a draftee too but that was in 2001, was that before Jack?

 

The most impressive thing about that list is just how many players are on it. I think we tend to over-rate Jack because he had a lot of primo picks in his day but he seems to have a decent eye for major league quality players at least. We haven't had very many complete duds under him except for guys who got injured.

[trwi7]

We traded Ginter for CV.

We actually traded Wayne Franklin and Leo Estrella for Carlos Villanueva and Glenn Woolard.

 

 

Ennder wrote:

---

Parra was a draftee too but that was in 2001, was that before Jack?

If Hardy was a Jack Z. draftee then Parra was too because they were both drafted the same year.

[PeaveyFury]

My point is that you can't afford to miss on your first round picks five of nine years because that's where your big leaguers come from, and that's what he did.

 

If I had to guess, I'd think it's quite likely that if you actually look around the league, very few teams would be able to surpass that success rate.

[pogokat]

In his short run here, Jack z produced 4 all star players and many other major leaguers...i'm really at a loss to the complaints...even in the years he didn't get a great first rounder, he took another player later that made up for it...like gallardo in the rogers year...the draft isn't just the first round, and nobody has been better at that than jack z.

[brewjihad]

Brewers first round picks since 2000:

 

Krynzel

Jones

Fielder

Weeks

Rogers

Braun

Jeffress

LaPorta

Lawrie

 

I guess my question is how you can say he "missed on first round picks five of nine years". You could say he missed on Krynzel, Jones, and Rogers. Who else are you including in this 5/9 miss rate? Jeffress is one of the top pitching prospects in the minors, LaPorta can't be discredited because he was traded, and Lawrie hasn't even played pro baseball yet. If you count Weeks, I don't see how drafting a league-average 2B can be considered 'missing'. Add in that he found some later http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif rounders like Yo, Hardy, Hart, and Gamel, and then hit on Parra through the draft and follow, and I really fail to see how you can criticize him for early draft picks.

 

Edit: The rest of the NL Central's rate of 1st round picks contributing anything for their team in the majors:

 

Cubs: 1- Prior

Cards: 0

Pirates: 2- Burnett, Maholm

Reds: 1- Bruce

Astros: 1- Burke

[pogokat]

Gamel was from the 4th round and hart was an 11th round pick...

 

jack z has made good picks all throughout the draft along these lines...he drafts high potential guys, so there's a decent burnout risk, but the fact that so many guy have made it to the majors is an excellent indication that he is good at his job...