What is Hardy worth?

[BADGERJOBOB]

If you're willing to give him a 6 year deal for over $20 million a year, I will just disagree with you. That would be way to risky for this team and could hurt the team for years. If CC would take a 3 year deal, then I'm more on board with that.

 

The Brewers will also be getting back draft picks if CC leaves and combine that with all the early picks they had in 2008 they can put a good team on the field for the next few years and bring in more Brewers fans. Then I think you can rely a bit more on attendance. That and getting a new tv deal. The Brewers need more revenue if you want them to spend money with the best of them.

First of all, I could care less about draft picks. Give me the star player now over what might be 3, 4, 5 years from now. Draft picks are so hit and miss and don't really provide you with anything in the here and now,especially when you have a very solid base to work with. This is not a rebuilding team where we should accumulate draft picks only to watch the few that are hits leave just before they enter their prime for some other suppossed can't miss prospect.

 

Second, its not spend $0 or spend $20 million. Its do you spend the extra $7-8 million a year over 5-6 years for CC over a Suppan type player or better yet Gagne/Cameron who combined are average at best and made $20 million this past year. So this talk of an additional $20 million over 5-6 years is hogwash. Its are you willing to spend an additional $7-8 million over 5-6 years for an ace who can match or trump any other teams ace. Rarely does Milwaukee get a chance to get a star FA to sniff Milwaukee so when everything falls in line (success, age, interest), you have to go for it.

 

And finally, attendance does matter. Is it the end all? No. Can we compete or outspend the Yankees? No. But we can compete against a large majority of teams. We are top 10 in attendance for a reason. We are a very good team. Success drives attendance and revenue. So does star power in a star driven league. To let our best pitcher go and then trade a good player, replacing him with someone younger and inexperienced to fill another hole does nothing to improve this team and in all likelihood weakens this team which in turn lowers expectations and attendance and revenue and pushes us back to most of the last 26 years.

 

At some point in time, you need pony up and spend some money if you really want to compete. The Brewers are in a position right now to be able to compete consistently for the foreseeable future as we have a very good base of players that are young and cheap, yet successful. I just don't see us having much success if we are always looking to trade our young players just before they hit their primes for minor leaguers who might be better. Again if someone is giving away the farm for any one of our players, I say go for it but I wouldn't trade Hardy for someone else's potential. Hes a very solid player who would look great at third base a few years down the road. And he is one of numerous players on this team that are not even close to hitting their prime years and thats a good thing.

[BADGERJOBOB]

---

so i guess you weren't a big fan of trading Overbay to bring up Fielder? or trading Sexon for prospects?

Thats my point. That was a different era. Back when we were not good. Back when we couldn't sniff .500 and when we needed to build towards the future. We can't continue to have that type of mentality of always looking towards the future. If we do, we might as well pack it in. Move the franchise and get a minor league team for the city of Milwaukee so all of us can say wow we had some great young talent come through Milwaukee. Now look at them. They are all-stars.

[monty57]

You dont move a 26 year old all-star for an unproven talent.

 

No, you don't. However, if you could get someone like Cain, then you'd have a pretty tough pitching staff. So, again, the question becomes: "Is the dropoff from Hardy to either Escobar or a "proven veteran" replacement worth the benefit of Cain over whichever of Bush/McClung/Suppan he'd replace?"

 

At this point in time, I don't think anyone would argue that we should trade JJ for some high-level-but-not-yet-ready-for-the-majors prospect.

 

This season, 25 SS's had over 400 PA's. Based solely on OPS (maybe not the best way to measure a SS, but that's what I'll use), the median was Michael Young with a .741 OPS. JJ Hardy was at .821, placing him 5th in the league. If we signed "Joe Average" for one season, we might get someone in the .700-.725 OPS range, which would be a pretty significant dropoff from Hardy.

 

Since Matt Cain is always the name that's thrown around, let's look at his numbers: 217.2 IP, 3.76 ERA, 186 K / 91 BB, 1.36 WHIP 7.69 K/9, 2.04 BB/9, .251 BAA

If he's replacing Suppan (let's say he could be traded): 177.2 IP, 4.96 ERA, 90 K, 67 BB, 1.54 WHIP

 

If you could somehow just trade away Suppan to lose the salary, and could trade JJ for Cain straight up, would a trade of JJ, losing around .100-.125 OPS and maybe gaining defensively in the process be worth bringing in Cain for the increases over Suppan?

[TheCrew07]

again I say that trading Hardy isn't a 1 for 1 trade with Escobar... comparing their offensive numbers doesn't take into account the total net result of the move, the net change is more than Escobar's offense vs Hardy's offense.

[bjkrautk]

so i guess you weren't a big fan of trading Overbay to bring up Fielder? or trading Sexon for prospects?

Overbay deal didn't bother me at all, because I expected Prince to be a better player than Overbay. Plus, by the time O was traded, Prince had spent a full season in AAA and had already hit 2 HRs during a short-sample call up to the big club. He was a top prospect in all of MLB, not just the Brewers system for several years prior. (Fielder had a .957 OPS in AAA at the same age as Escobar's .793 OPS in AA.) Fielder had an OPS over .800 at every level, a feat Escobar hasn't accomplished at any level (he's only been over .700 twice, both coming in his second year at a talent level).

 

One of the reasons that I started asking about where people see Escobar's ceiling is because I need to know what he can be with the bat. I know it's not fair to compare him to Fielder's numbers....but I'm not the one who brought the comparison up. Trading Vina for Ronnie Belliard would probably be a more apt comparison, except again, Belliard was a far more productive hitter in the minor leagues than Escobar is, had a full season at AAA (w/ a .911 OPS!)....and Belliard had already had significant playing time in the majors when Vina got hurt in 1999.

 

Rey Ordonez was a gold glove talent at shortstop too, but the offensive decline doesn't equivocate for the defensive upgrade (especially when Hardy's not exactly a butcher with the glove himself).

[brewerguy71]

You move him for the same reason you move anyone. To improve the overall quality of your team.

 

Hardy's value is at an all time high right now, imo, higher than it ever will be. I have serious doubts that Hardy can replicate what he has done the past 2 seasons. His replacement is an upgrade where it is most important for the position he plays.

 

If the right deal was made they could bring in someone who is cheaper, younger and more talented, as well as more upside. It would be a win all around for the team.

[Ennder]

Hardy's value is at an all time high right now, imo, higher than it ever will be. I have serious doubts that Hardy can replicate what he has done the past 2 seasons. His replacement is an upgrade where it is most important for the position he plays.

 

This is the crux of the matter. I was not surprised one bit by what Hardy did either of the last two years and expect to see a litte more growth out of him again. This is the player I expected him to be. I question whether Escobar will ever be a league average SS overall. All I see is the next light hitting slick fielding SS who struggles to have any value at all without a good BABIP on the year.

 

So to trade Hardy to make room for Escobar makes absolutely no sense to me in 2009. If Escobar has a big year in AAA in 2009 I could see doing this in 2010 or something but right now I just think it hurts the team.

[BADGERJOBOB]

Hardy's value is at an all time high right now, imo, higher than it ever will be. I have serious doubts that Hardy can replicate what he has done the past 2 seasons.

How do you come up with that conclusion? Just wondering. His numbers are overall trending up. He is a young player at 26 with a few years of major league experience under his belt so that will only help. There are prevailing theories that at age 27 players reach their physical peak which can lead to a huge breakout performance so he is just reaching that age now. He is as healthy as he's ever been. I don't think roids is an issue that caused his production to jump these last two years. Hmmm I guess I don't get it. Are you psychic? Because if you are, you have to tell me what the Powerball numbers are this weekend. I need some money real bad. Seriously, would really like to know why you think his production is going to drop.

[Ennder]

There is this misconception that Hardy's power came out of nowhere.

 

2003 - AA - 12 HR in 474 PA or 1 per 39.5 PA

2004 AAA - 4 HR in 110 PA or 1 per 27.5 PA

2nd half of 2005 - 8 HR in 208 PA or 1 per 26 PA

2006 - 5 HR in 139 PA or 1 per 27.8 PA

2007 - 26 HR in 638 PA or 1 per 24.5 PA.

2008 - 24 HR in 629 PA or 1 per 26.2 PA.

 

You have to go all the way back to 2003 when he was 20 years old to find a significant dip in power for him (I refuse to count the first half of 2005 as he wasn't major league ready so those results don't mean much).

 

Where he improved this year was in the K/BB rates and that is something expected from his minor league rates. I don't see much reason to not expect a repeat of 2008 or something right in line with that next year.

[OglivieHomePerm]

I don't want to speak for brewerfan71, but I will say that Hardy's value is high now not only because of performance, but because he is still 2 seasons away from free agency. Even if he has a better 2009 than 2008, his trade value may not be higher, because he will be one year closer to free agency, and that will reduce his trade value somewhat.

 

 

And just for the record, I don't want to see Hardy traded, but as most have said, you listen to offers, and if you find one that improves the team, you pull the trigger.

[brewerguy71]

I think that Hardy has outperformed offensively the past two years from a scouting perspective. He was never projected to have the type of power that he has had. Hardy was projected more as a defense first, gap to gap hitter type of player, with a great arm. His ankle injury definitely hindered his range and defensive abilities. His arm is still strong of course.

 

As he came through the Brewers farm system he started to develop power, but I do not think that he projects any further than where he is right now. No surprise really there since that is the Brewers singular focus in finding and developing talent.

 

I am not saying at all that he is a bad player. But I do claim that he has outperformed his expectations, and maybe even his long term ability. And with that, given the demand for shortstops by many teams this offseason, this is the opportune time to trade him and supply the team with much needed pitching.

 

From an overall sense of building a team, and also from a financial standpoint that the Brewers are a small market team, this is the best time to deal him for younger pitching. In an earlier post, I think that the prospect route is the best way to go.....one top notch pitching prospect on the cusp of major league readiness and a closer, former 8th inning guy...is a great deal for Hardy.

[JJHardy7]

so i guess you weren't a big fan of trading Overbay to bring up Fielder?

 

I don't know if this is a fair comparison. Overbay was an average 1b and it was pretty clear that Fielder would at least be as good as Overbay if not better in his rookie year with the bat. I just don't see Escobar coming anywhere close to some of Hardy's power numbers in his rookie year. Fielder never played a 'full' season (he was called up before September for a small stretch), but he certainly proved in AAA that he was going to be a special player from an offense standpoint.

 

If we sit here a year from now and Escobar puts up good numbers in AAA/mix of MLB, 3b is resolved somehow, and Weeks either reaches that dreaded potential word or 2b is fixed, that would be the premium time to trade Hardy IMO (I believe Hardy has 2 more seasons before free agency).

[dhoffman19]

You dont move a 26 year old all-star for an unproven talent.

I'd tend to agree. If, in fact, Escobar is ready, I don't see that as a reason to trade Hardy. This team has huge holes at 3B and 2B. Moving Hardy to either of those spots makes more sense to me than trading him.

[jhart05]

I think it's pretty simple.

 

Sometime between now and the start of the 2010 season...

 

Trade Fielder and Scott BorAss, to the AL for a #2 starter.

 

Convince Hardy him moving to 3B is for the overall good of the team.

 

Escobar at SS, and Gamel at 1B.

 

Weeks gets his average up over .250, which will give him a .360+ OBP, and with a better defensive 1B, and gold glove caliber players at SS and 3B, his defensive shortcomings will be less noticeable.

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

Would Gamel really be a better glove at 1B than Fielder? Could happen, but his early returns at 3B are less than promising. The argument on your side could be many of his errors were the result of poor throwing...not as big of an issue at 1B. Am I missing anything?

[OglivieHomePerm]

Would Gamel really be a better glove at 1B than Fielder?

 

25% of the posters at brewerfan.net would be a better glove at 1B than Fielder. He is not good at scooping balls out of the dirt. His short wingspan results in having to come off the base in order to catch more balls than most firstbasemen.

 

Gamel's inability to play third should not be a hinderance to playing first. If you moved Derrek Lee, a great defensive 1B over to 3B, I expect that he would have a lot of errors...so Gamel's errors at 3B don't concern me when talking about him playing 1B.

[jhart05]

25% of the posters at brewerfan.net would be a better glove at 1B than Fielder.

 

I have to laugh!! Great post.

 

 

 

From what I have heard, Gamel's problems are with his foot work and throwing, not with the glove.

[Brewbadger]

And what do first basemen rarely do? Throw the ball. Gamel would be great at first. An infield of Hardy, Escobar, Weeks and Gamel would make me very happy.

[jhart05]

The argument on your side could be many of his errors were the result of poor throwing...not as big of an issue at 1B. Am I missing anything?

 

Nope, not missing anything.

 

 

 

And what do first basemen rarely do? Throw the ball. Gamel would be great at first. An infield of Hardy, Escobar, Weeks and Gamel would make me very happy.

 

Yep.

[BrewCrewForever]

And what do first basemen rarely do? Throw the ball. Gamel would be great at first. An infield of Hardy, Escobar, Weeks and Gamel would make me very happy.

Totally agree, I'm praying that is the infield in 2010 if not 2009.

[Ennder]

And what do first basemen rarely do? Throw the ball. Gamel would be great at first. An infield of Hardy, Escobar, Weeks and Gamel would make me very happy.

 

I'm probably fine with this for 2010, if this is the IF in 2009 we are in trouble though.

[Diggr14]

I think we should be looking to reasonably extend JJ at this point. If he wont do it.. then you look to deal him. I think alot of this will depend on the economics of whether or not it is viable to keep him here. If he will sign an adequate 4 year deal.. you keep him. If not you might have to explore looking to deal him. But I still dont think you automatically assume an unproven talent will surpass JJ in results at the MLB level. JJ is pretty damn good and getting better.

[Diggr14]

I think 2009 is the year that Prince Fielder gets dealt. Especially if the Brewers are not in the playoff race come July... or someone blows them away with an offer this winter. I like Fielder, but versus Hardy, he is going to want to back the Brinks Truck up get PAID. I doubt Fielder signs a deal now for security, whereas I could see Hardy doing it with his past injuries as a reminder of what can happen.

[ILuvDaBush]

It's better to trade a player a year too early than a year too late.-Branch Rickey...or should it be Rickie.

 

Nevertheless, this offseason considering the dearth of power-hitting shortstops this offseason, JJ's value should be quite high, and quite ripe for plucking a front-o-tha-rotation pitcher this offseason.

[Rob]

Hardy will be traded this summer. His stock will never be higher plus trading him from a position in which the Brewers have a surpluss (hall and escobar) makes business sense. Fielder isn't going anywhere because he is the only left handed stick in the lineup. By the way, I know everyone is high on Escobar but I was looking at his MLE and he seems destined for an OBP of around 310 next year. Maybe he isn't ready.