What is Hardy worth?

[GAME05]

why is it so crazy to think of Escobar as a starter in 09? our team couldn't live with a sub-par offensive player for the season? i'm not suggesting he lead off, but stick him at 7 or 8 and i think we could deal with it. it just seems narrow to me to say "Escobar is worse than Hardy, so don't replace Hardy for Escobar." sure, we drop some with the switch, but i think we'd have a greater increase in talent (vs. the Hardy dropoff) from what we'd get for Hardy, considering the demand for SS around the league.

 

sometimes it seems like once a player gets really good, he's suddenly off-limits to trade. Two years ago we were saying this same stuff about Bill Hall, and last year it was Hart.

[JJHardy7]

I have never spoken to Hardy, nor do I know his intentions, but the security of getting set up for life NOW plus having the strong possibility of having another big payday in around 5 years should be somewhat appealing.

 

This is the big unknown. Not every player is going to be like Braun and sign a potentially below market deal for security. I wish the Brewers would've extended him last off-season since I think his cost went up quite a bit.

 

why is it so crazy to think of Escobar as a starter in 09? our team couldn't live with a sub-par offensive player for the season?

 

I know I've posted this other spots, but expecting a AA player to make the jump to the bigs as a starter from day one is kind of a stretch. The Brewers need more OBP guys IMO and Escobar's high OBP was driven by and large by his batting average. I've also said a lot of this depends on how the rest of the Brewers lineup shakes out (ie what to do at 3rd, what to do with Weeks, Cam, Hall, etc). You have to think that Kendall will be back and will be hitting in the 7th or 8th hole. If Escobar struggles we pretty much have 3 automatic outs at the bottom of the lineup and we potentially would have to hit Weeks, Cam, & Hall/3b in the top 6 spots every game. That's what I'd be worried about.

[Ennder]

why is it so crazy to think of Escobar as a starter in 09? our team couldn't live with a sub-par offensive player for the season?

 

He would probably put up about the same numbers Hall did last year and Hall cost us almost 2 wins offensively on the season compared to a replacement level 3B(in just halftime play at that). Not really sure if his defense could make up for it. It also starts his clock ticking faster for no good reason and could stunt his growth as a player.

 

I cannot stress enough how BABIP driven that stat line was for Escobar in AA. He hit the ball on the ground over 50% of the time which is going to limit any amount of power he has. His BABIP was a ridiculous .380(it should be high as a speedy GB/LD type hitter but nowhere near that high). He didn't BB nearly enough.

 

His MLE splits vs RH were .265/.293/.342/.635.

 

I'm just not seeing any good reason to start him in the majors in 2009.

[joepepsi]

The offense was sub par this past season. It won't get better with the same parts or by subtracting the third best hitter on the team.

[monty57]

The bottom line is: you have to do what's in the best interests of the team. Until you know what Hardy could net in a trade, and what other options are available, it is difficult to say for sure what's best. If Hardy could net Cain + a one-year stopgap SS, it may be worth making the deal. Or, if we can trade Hall and sign a decent 3B, maybe the dropoff to Escobar's bat wouldn't be so noticable. The person who stated that every position player not named Braun will be open for discussion is correct, so there are a lot of "ifs" involved.

 

I would like to see another good-to-decent starter added, and if Hardy isn't part of the package, where is that starter coming from? If Fielder is traded, we're really going to have a big hole in the middle of our lineup, and Braun won't be traded, so the chance of landing a #1 starter goes out the window if Hardy isn't part of the package. Therefore, we'd need to look at what starter could be found for some mix of the rest of our team. I guess that being said, the real choice is "What's better, keeping Hardy and losing Weeks or Hart for a #3/4 starter, or Keeping Hart / Weeks and losing Hardy for a #1/2 starter?"

 

As far as Escobar stepping in, I think there is a decent chance that Melvin will sign a "proven veteran" to hold the fort for a year if Hardy is traded. If Escobar proves himself worthy of jumping from AAA to the majors next year, the "proven vet" could be relegated to a backup role or traded away. If not, then Melvin has his safety net in place so that the team won't be crippled by losing Hardy and having Escobar step in and fail.

[BADGERJOBOB]

Actually its not just him. I am trending towards the realization that many on this board are still under the thought process that the Seligs are still running the team. Yes we have other holes but why trade Hardy, a proven commodity for a number 2/3 starting pitcher when we can sign a 2/3 or better yet, sign a number 1 in CC. Whose to say that the owners won't spend money to win now. This team is poised to do some damage over the next 3, 4 years not rebuild again. Its interesting to note that we were 9th this year in attendance with over 3,068,458 so woe is not the Milwaukee Brewers. We can compete with most of the other teams when it comes to spending money. We just have to spend it wisely. I am all for trading prospects for established successful players and not the other way around, thats what losing teams do.

[kramnoj]

Jeter threw a tantrum.

 

I challenge you to document that. There really isn't much to support the notion that anybody ever had a discussion with Jeter about moving. It's not Jeter's job to go to management and offer to move. It's his job to be the best player he can be and play where he's told to play.

[JJHardy7]

This team is poised to do some damage over the next 3, 4 years not rebuild again. Its interesting to note that we were 9th this year in attendance with over 3,068,458 so woe is not the Milwaukee Brewers. We can compete with most of the other teams when it comes to spending money.

 

I disagree with this. The Brewers had tremendous support this year. What happens next year if the team stinks due to injuries, etc? The market isn't big enough to sit and count on say 2.8 million fans every year. I think 3 - 5 years from now that could be the case if this team keeps making the playoffs. You are correct the Brewers have to be smart with their money and part of that is that if the right moves are made the next few years I'd imagine the Brewers fan base will grow and we can somewhat bank on high levels of attendance year in and year out because the team has been competitive for 5 years.

 

I think part of the point you might be missing too in regards to trading Hardy (a move I'm not a fan of until we know what he could bring) is that it is easier and cheaper to trade for pitching than it is to sign a pitcher. A team can really overpay for a mediocre pitcher (Suppan) in the free agent market or a team can package guys like Hardy to get pitching that will be cheap and just as talented or more than the free agent market.

[GAME05]

well put JJHardy7. attendance numbers aren't the sum of a team's revenue. plus Attanasio has already made us a top-half spender. nobody is saying we should drop our payroll to $30M like Selig would, but there still has to be some fiscal responsibility as well. The contention that "winners trade prospects and losers trade good players for prospects" couldn't be further from the truth. maybe we should have traded Braun and Fielder and Gallardo when they were in the minors. plus it's just too easy to say 'sign a FA #1 pitcher' because there just aren't that many out there. CC, Sheets, Affeldt and Dempster are it as far as I know.

 

i'm one in favour of trading Hardy this offseason, but certainly i don't think it's an Overbay situation, that he really has to go to make room for Escobar. it's just we have a strong replacement ready to take over (sure, not as good offensively), and the market conditions right now are great for getting an overvalued return.

 

someone above listed a stat that Escobar would cost us 2 wins vs. Hardy's production, and i don't doubt that. but i'm betting i'm betting that the guy we get in return will be a 3+ game improvement if he's a solid starter or replacement for Hall or Weeks. and it's not like i think the money saved by trading Hardy should just go into MA's coffers, but to free additional money up for free agency. altogether i think the money plus the return on Hardy will be greater than the drop from Hardy to Escobar.

[BADGERJOBOB]

I disagree with this. The Brewers had tremendous support this year. What happens next year if the team stinks due to injuries, etc? The market isn't big enough to sit and count on say 2.8 million fans every year.

There is a much greater chance of the team taking a dive when you let your two aces walk and you trade your one established shortstop, replacing him with a player with offensive deficiencies, for a #3 type pitcher just to save money. I hate trading a player when you create a hole to fill another hole. I'd much rather sign Hardy to an extension, sign CC and than decide on Escobar one or two years from now when he is ready. In the meantime you have a great starting rotation (CC, Yo and Parra) and one less hole you have to fill. That would keep this team as a legit contender for a playoff spot and that will keep the seats filled for the entire year. I know I would much rather go watch CC and JJ next year than a Cain and Escobar and its not even close but hey if there is some team dumb enough to fill 2 of our holes for JJ, the deal would have to be done but I doubt you get 2 very good major league talented players for JJ. Could you imagine how many fewer runs we would have had in September if Escobar was playing instead of JJ? It would have been 27 years and counting.

[rluzinski]

Is it me, or is this talk of trading Hardy a lingering bit of Milwaukee's non-competitive attitude bred by 26 years of failure?

 

I don't think the Brewers should trade Hardy but I think it's terribly unfair to characterize any suggestion to trade established players as a "loser mentality".

 

As for Hardy changing positions, he'd be a fool not to do everything in his power to keep from being moved. Hall being moved from SS to 2B and 3B was a very different situation, IMO. Hall had a reputation for being a poor defensive SS in the minors. Furthermore, he was just happy to get a chance to start ANYWHERE in the majors at that point in his very young career. And I don't believe moving from 3B to CF would not have cost Hall money, provided that he could have handled it defensively.

 

In comparison, Hardy is an established player who has a reputation for being a solid defender and will be a free agent in two years. It will cost him money to be moved (even if he's moved back to SS by whatever team ends up with him) and it's very difficult to argue otherwise. I can not see how his team would hold it against him to not want to be moved, either.

 

But I'm almost certain that there will be little or no overlap of Hardy and Escobar anyway, so Hardy isn't going anywhere, anyway.

[BADGERJOBOB]

The contention that "winners trade prospects and losers trade good players for prospects" couldn't be further from the truth. maybe we should have traded Braun and Fielder and Gallardo when they were in the minors. plus it's just too easy to say 'sign a FA #1 pitcher' because there just aren't that many out there. CC, Sheets, Affeldt and Dempster are it as far as I know.

Ahhh NO. We kind of sucked when Braun and Fielder and Yo were in the minors. Thats where we traded players with some skills for additional prospects on the hopes of future success. Now that they are in the big leagues and we are winning is not when we should be trading our better players for some inexperienced prospect's potential. That is what teams that don't make the playoffs do.

 

And your right, of course its easy to say sign a FA #1 pitcher even though there are few and far between. Thing is, we have an opportunity to sign an ace in CC so why not go for it. Aces are so tough to come by that when you have a chance you have to go for it. Especially considering that we have a pretty good albeit still a very young team.

[clancyphile]

Here is the rational for trading Hardy rather than Escobar. Hardy will start making Millions in Arby, while Escobar will be making minimum wage. Are the Brewers better off spending the money on the upgrade at SS for Hardy, or trading Hardy for some good players and putting the money towards something else (re SP)? There is no clear answer since Escobar is still a question mark. These are the kind of decisions that need to be made to compete against higher payroll teams.

 

I would take the approach SD is taking with Peavy. We shouldn't actively shop Hardy, but we should inquire into seeing what teams are willing to give up. Is there a team that is so desperate for a good SS that they will overpay in pitching and other prospects? But I have to believe that StL is out of the question.

Except with Hardy, the Brewers have more than just a proven commodity - it is someone emerging as arguably the best offensive SS in the league (more power, less speed than Rollins). At this point, I would not trade him unless I was blown away - to the tune of a Dan Haren deal at a bare minimum. Maybe, I'd do a straight swap of Peavy for Hardy, but that is a big MAYBE.

[BrewCrewForever]

Yeah I would have to be blown away in a deal to trade Hardy. He is to valuable at SS or at 3B if he gets moved. Other then Braun I think he would have to be our best all around hitter. Just my opinion.

[TheCrew07]

I really hate Yuku maintenance eating my posts.

 

I'll quickly summarize my lost post. I wish we'd be more judicious using MLEs, they are projections, nothing more... sometimes they'll be spot on and sometimes they'll be off. What did MLEs have to say about Braun's rookie season? Puljos? I think projections in general work much better for players of average talent because they are based on the average MLB player, players of great physical talent typically have higher peaks and valleys as they settle in. When's the last time any of us saw a projection that projected a break out year from a player? I look at Escobar's power explosion this season differently than those who prefer MLEs... it's a difference perspective. In a purely offensive context, Escobar for Hardy makes no sense, in the same way that moving Fielder makes no sense. The problem is that the trades aren't 1 for 1... they'd include improved pitching and defense which is difficult to quantify.

 

I think we get hung up on the offensive numbers/projections because we don't have any names so instead of debating the hypothetical net gain of a trade, we get hung up debating what we know in offensive numbers between 2 of the key participants. I'm not concerned about an offensive step backwards in 2009 because I think 2010 and 11 could be the start of something special. Gamel, Green, Salome/Lucroy, and possibly others will more than make up the difference offensively down the road. I want the best possible team, but getting the best possible team doesn't necessarily always mean choosing the best option between 2 players at the same position, it's not that black and white.

 

The Seligs are only relevant in this discussion because they never raised revenue for the Brewers in the same way that MA's ownership group has done, they've found many more revenue streams for the team, which allows for a greater payroll. Regardless, MA doesn't pay the Brewer players out of his pocket, the Brewer Franchise pays the players (a business), and the business is on a budget, which I'd ballpark around 80 mil. Suppan + FA pitcher is roughly 27.5 mil the next 2 years, or 3/8 of the payroll for 2 declining players. In the other post I listed all of the contracts the Brewers will have in 2010, here I'm just going to say that I'm more interested in the Brewers being fiscally responsible than I am FA acquisitions. If they do play in the FA market, I'd rather get Teixeira whos similar to Fielder offensively and worlds better defensively, making a Fielder trade very painless.

 

If they don't move Hardy or Fielder for pitching I'm okay with that too, I could live with Yo, Parra, McClung, Bush, Suppan in 2009 but I'd rather acquire another stud pitcher. None of us know who's truly available or what the deals would be, I just sincerely hope the Brewers will do their due dilligence and listen to offers for players other than Yo and Braun. I like that Melvin has said he doesn't know what the team will look like yet, keep those options open Doug.

[BrewCrewForever]

I would listen to offers for all players on the Brewers except Braun, Gallardo and Hardy. Fielder, Hart and anyone is else is far game.

[Menace II Sobriety]

Seeing as how the debates were today lets make a list.......

 

Escobar Hardy

 

speed x

ops x

homers x

defense x

range x

power x

cost x

eye x

value x

attention from ladies x

trade value x

 

 

I can add more if needed my point is simple and I don't want to debate it. Escobar is a slick fielding base stealer, JJ is a player who hits for value some years. I do not want to negate his value at all but people keep on asking what Escobar is worth (my guess the value of jj x6 years @ an average of 10m per yer) or otherwise known as 6 years of Gagne at last years salary.

 

linkage

http://forum.brewerfan.net/viewtopic.php?t=15045

 

I do not want to hear the AAA replies becasue that was an organizational decision to keep all of the studs @ AA. Also the LaPorta can go to rest for better or worse because there was a reason the team felt he was expendable while everyone else was not. They have been right before.

 

Again I would not trade JJ for peanuts but it is a buyers market and someone has to be sold. In years past we would be washing socks for a prospect like Escobar, the team catches a break an all of a sudden we feel entitled like the Red Sox.

 

A gold glove caliber SS doesn't come around to often no matter who is in front of him. Just to further my ideals, I have recently agreed upon the idea of Escobar platooning at 2nd for a year ala Reyes. No knock on Hardy but I think his value is higher tan Orince right now.

[istanbultaye]

I dont think he would work as a 3b. The range is not needed as much a nice arm is needed, but you would rather have a protopypical #5 type hitter there at 3rd who could potentially drive in 100 per year. That just isnt Hardy.

 

 

 

Actually, with Hardy being the only starter besides Prince with an OBP over .340 (that I can think of), decent average and plenty of pop the past two years to play #5 in many lineups, I really don't think he is handicapped much in the 'prototypical #5' category at all. As people say, he just isn't a standout in that role. I think any of us would take Hardy's numbers for the year at the 5 hole over Corey Hart's numbers this year (not that I don't like him, but he did not have a very good year).

[brewerguy71]

I tend to disagree with the thoughts that Hardy is untouchable, or even one of the best offensive shortstops in the league. Granted, he has hit 20+ HR 2 years in a row with decent ansulary numbers offensively. I wouldnt even consider him an anchor to the Brewer offense. He definitely has value, but to say that you would need to be blown away, or to receive a Dan Haren type of deal to unload him, is folly.

 

But I think that that love of the longball has clouded some of the opinion of him. Last year (2008 and 2007 as well), I would place him at about the 6th best offensive shortstop in the league, and that is only because Furcal was hurt most of the year, as was Tulowitzki. Above him, more productive would be Ramirez, Rollins, Drew, Reyes, even Christian Guzman was more productive. That position doesnt really make him a gem for the team.

 

The main thing to think about here, though, is that we are talking about a shortstop....defense is a priority. Escobar's bat may need a little bit more seasoning in AAA this coming year, but he is heads and shoulders above Hardy defensively, at a defensive minded position.

 

The reality of the situation is that there is a better replacement, almost ready to take over. And if the Brewers are looking at the long term well being of the franchise, I think they should strike while the iron is hot regarding Hardy because I dont think he can maintain the offensive pace he has set the past two years, and they are never going to get more for him that they will right now.

 

They could, realistically, either get an established #2 starter such as Jeremy Guthrie, Shaun Marcum or a Mark Buehrle one for one; or go after a teams top 10 pitching prospect and a guy who could step into the closers role like Scott Downs or Brad Ziegler.

[ILuvDaBush]

Actually, with Hardy being the only starter besides Prince with an OBP over .340 (that I can think of)...

Rickie Weeks...anyone???

 

And as for those who question if Alcides could make the AA-to-the-majors jump, Ned Yost was so impressed by the young Venezuelan that he was contemplating bringing the speedster with him to Milwaukee from Spring Training. I like Hardy, always have, but with all of our cornerstones about to hit arbitration, there are many players ripe to be picked by other clubs. However, the only player who has an MLB-ready player behind him is JJ. What is he worth? Well I can't concretely set his value but if I were a gambling man, I would say by Spring Training next year,.we're going to have our answer.

[Ennder]

And as for those who question if Alcides could make the AA-to-the-majors jump, Ned Yost was so impressed by the young Venezuelan that he was contemplating bringing the speedster with him to Milwaukee from Spring Training

 

This is the same guy that brought Weeks and Hardy up too early and who thinks Tony Gwynn Jr is a good hitter and that Brian Shouse should be pitching to Pat Burrell with 2 runners on. Not the guy I'd trust.

 

I'll say it flat out, if Escobar is in the majors to start this season our management has failed us, it would just be the dumbest thing in the world. Starting his clock early so he gets expensive faster and setting him up to fail by rushing him is just not a good move in any way. He shouldn't be a starter until late in 2010 most likely at the earliest.

[endaround]

I really don't get this rush on Escobar, whose line in AA isn't that great even before you account for a BABIP of .375. Gamel I could see given the Brewers have no one at 3B and he actually hit. I wouldn't necessarily agree with it but its understandable. But Escobar?

[JJHardy7]

There is a much greater chance of the team taking a dive when you let your two aces walk and you trade your one established shortstop, replacing him with a player with offensive deficiencies, for a #3 type pitcher just to save money. I hate trading a player when you create a hole to fill another hole.

 

My point in referencing your other post was that the Brewers can't spend money with the best of them just based on their attendance this year. If they do that, I worry about the future of the franchise. I'm not for trading Hardy unless it's a flat out great offer. I just think it's somewhat scary to just spend money because of the attendance this year. If the team has injuries or stinks, that attendance figure is going to drop big time. There are other ways to get starting pitchers besides CC. CC was great, but none of us here know what type of deal he's looking for. If you're willing to give him a 6 year deal for over $20 million a year, I will just disagree with you. That would be way to risky for this team and could hurt the team for years. If CC would take a 3 year deal, then I'm more on board with that.

 

The Brewers will also be getting back draft picks if CC leaves and combine that with all the early picks they had in 2008 they can put a good team on the field for the next few years and bring in more Brewers fans. Then I think you can rely a bit more on attendance. That and getting a new tv deal. The Brewers need more revenue if you want them to spend money with the best of them.

[Diggr14]

You'd think a 26 year old all-star SS has very good value around the league. Especially coming off another solid season last year.

 

 

Why we'd move him? I have no clue. You dont move a 26 year old all-star for an unproven talent.

[GAME05]

You'd think a 26 year old all-star SS has very good value around the league. Especially coming off another solid season last year.

 

 

Why we'd move him? I have no clue. You dont move a 26 year old all-star for an unproven talent.

so i guess you weren't a big fan of trading Overbay to bring up Fielder? or trading Sexon for prospects?

 

i can understand the thought of not dropping back into the Selig days, but it's like we've adopted the Yankees' philosophy of wanting to sign everyone to huge, long-term contracts, and if there's another hole on the team we should just sign a big-name FA.

 

also, "just to save money" is only a purely horrible thought when you don't have to pay for it yourself. though i think we could still spend the Hardy savings on someone else, it still might be possible that MA has asked DM to do so beyond the salaries we're already losing.