What is Hardy worth?

[brewerguy71]

What does everyone think that JJ Hardy could bring in a trade? Or what is he worth?

 

I've seen things out there that say he could be had for a #2 or #3 starting pitcher straight up. Javier Vazquez, or a guy like Jonathan Sanchez might work.

 

There is also the thought that he could bring a top prospect and maybe a mid level AA prospect as well to a team that is desperate for a Shortstop, or in need of a 2nd or 3rd baseman.

 

I personally feel Second is the best place for him in the future. He would be an above average guy their offensively, has good range for 2b and has a great arm for 2b. I dont think he would work as a 3b. The range is not needed as much a nice arm is needed, but you would rather have a protopypical #5 type hitter there at 3rd who could potentially drive in 100 per year. That just isnt Hardy. His range isnt going to allow him to stay at SS, at least on a contending team that wants the whole package in their shortstop.

 

If and when Escobar is ready its time for Hardy to go (sorry ladies, there just wont be a place for him here anymore, except in your hearts).

 

What do people think he could bring in return?

[Ennder]

I still have my doubts that Escobar will be in the majors before the middle of 2010 so I guess there is no real hurry to trade him. Certainly no hurry for this season.

[Patrick425]

I'd rather sign Hardy to a LT contract and trade Escobar. Hardy is proven, Escobar is not. I'm not really understanding why everyone is so eager to show Hardy the door, so that there is an opening for Escobar. If we can find a different position for one of them to play, great, but if not..keep Hardy, without a doubt.

[jjfanec]

I did not think Hardy had that good of range. So, putting him at 2nd next to Prince who has very little range would be a recipe for lots of groundball hits. I think you lock up Hardy to a longer term deal and move him to 3rd. His arm would play great and his range would be good enough. Also if you sign him to a longer deal and move him the odds of him being disgruntled about it are much less because he will have gotten his money.

I think his bat can definitely play at 3rd. He proved this year 25 home runs is not a fluke for him, so you would have Braun, Prince, and Hardy 3-5. Two 35 home run guys with a 25 plus guy and I think that is good. Hardy was 34th in the NL in OPS which would be respectable for a 5 hitter in mind considering you have 12 and 16 right in front of him. He also does not strikeout much. His numbers are not too far from Troy Glaus who actually just walks at a better rate than JJ. i don't think you trade him unless you know for sure Escobar is ready, but I would actually rather have JJ and Escobar on the same side.

[endaround]

Hardy in two years is looking at 8 years/$100m to replace Jeter in pinstripes. He's not moving to 3B.

[Thurston Fluff]

Hardy in two years is looking at 8 years/$100m to replace Jeter in pinstripes. He's not moving to 3B.

 

He is if he is told he must. He is ours for the next couple years so I don't really care if he's happy with a switch or not. When he is a free agent then he can make such demands. Until then pay were needed to make the team the best it can be.

 

I agree with you that Escobar isn't close to major league ready so really the debate is more or less academic. My thought is keep Escobar in the minors until JJ leaves or signs an extension with the idea of switching positions. Why waste a couple years of Escobar when we have a well above average player ahead of him?

[endaround]

Yes we'll show him who's boss! We'll play him out of position, poison the clubhouse and make us a bad target for free agents to teach the kid a lesson!

[joepepsi]

I'd rather sign Hardy to a LT contract and trade Escobar. Hardy is proven, Escobar is not. I'm not really understanding why everyone is so eager to show Hardy the door, so that there is an opening for Escobar. If we can find a different position for one of them to play, great, but if not..keep Hardy, without a doubt.

Thank you. I'm not reading anymore "trade hardy or move him 3rd whether he likes it or not" threads.

[Thurston Fluff]

Yes we'll show him who's boss! We'll play him out of position, poison the clubhouse and make us a bad target for free agents to teach the kid a lesson!

 

There must be plenty of examples all over that the things you think will happen for you to be so arrogantly sure of your position so why not share a few? Then again you already have him in pinstripes in two years making 100 million over 8 years so you must be all seeing all knowing.

 

I do have a few examples to the contrary though. Bill Hall being moved place to place didn't really hurt our chances of landing a free agent so far. Soriano seemed to do all right after he was forced to move to the outfield. He didn't seem to think it was so horrible since he signed a deal after the season to remain an outfielder. It didn't seem to hurt his play at all the year of the change and it didn't seem to harm the Nationals abilty to find other players nearly as much as the fact that they suck does. So maybe it is better to field the best possible team to attract a free agent as opposed to making everybody on the team feel good. Maybe instead of hurting the teams ability to attract free agents fielding a better team by doing what is necessary would actually help.

 

On a more abstract scale maybe, just maybe, if the player doesn't want to do what is in the best interest of the team his dissatisfaction will not be all that bad in the clubhouse. I kind of think a selfish player is already known to be selfish among his teammates and they treat him accordingly. That he might not be happy being moved for the better of the team might not matter in the least to the rest of the players. Especially when players like Braun and Hall have already done so in the best interest of the team. That is of course assuming Hardy would be so selfish to become a distraction which is far from certain.

 

My point is simple. The needs of the team outweigh the desire of the player. Thus the feelings of the player is similarly inferior to the needs of the team. Play were we need you and produce. When the time comes the player's desires will be met. Either by this team or any one who he chooses to work for after six years of service.

[edod]

The range is not needed as much a nice arm is needed, but you would rather have a protopypical #5 type hitter there at 3rd who could potentially drive in 100 per year.

I'm not sure why this association is out there. I am familiar with it, but in my years of watching baseball, I've developed a sense that 3B is more of a defensive position. In that teams look for D first (see Braun, M. Caberra, etc).

 

That said, I think Hardy would make a fantastic third-baseman, but I don't think the team asks him to move for reasons discussed in other threads. If only he would volunteer...

 

Bill Hall being moved place to place didn't really hurt our chances of landing a free agent so far. Soriano seemed to do all right after he was forced to move to the outfield.

Soriano was a bad infielder and was forced to the outfield by Frank Robinson. Bill Hall's offensive woes do coincide with this position changes--made to accommodate Hardy and Braun. I won't say the moves caused his woah's, but if you ask him, he might allude to them. This is not so good for the perception of the team's treatment of players especially if they start forcing players elsewhere who excel at their position. But you're right, it's not thinking of the team, it's management's treatment of the individuals who have interests outside of and beyond whichever team they happen to be on.

[Thurston Fluff]

Soriano was a bad infielder and was forced to the outfield by Frank Robinson. Bill Hall's offensive woes do coincide with this position changes--made to accommodate Hardy and Braun.

 

Agreed with Soriano but that didn't mean his being forced to move made one bit of difference to potential free agents or to his performance that year. It should also be pointed out poor defense alone isn't the only reason for making a switch. Bill Hall was a decent shortstop but got moved for a better defensive one. If Escobar really is that much better at short than JJ then it only makes sense to move JJ. I don't think JJ has much to complain about if he is replaced for the exact same reason he replaced Hall.

 

 

This is not so good for the perception of the team's treatment of players especially if they start forcing players elsewhere who excel at their position. But you're right, it's not thinking of the team, it's management's treatment of the individuals who have interests outside of and beyond whichever team they happen to be on.

 

That's fair enough. The thing is player are moved all the time to make room for someone better or to make the team better. It is expected of a player to be team oriented. Bill Hall was the team MVP and got moved for an unproven Hardy who had yet to stay healthy for so much as one season. That didn't seem to make the locker room all that much worse nor did it restrict the Brewers like Endaround claimed. JJ is a very good shortstop and, like I said, he will most likely be one next year. That does not mean moving him would be so detrimental to the team just because he may not like it. If they feel it is in the best interest of the team and the only thing stopping them is the worry he may not like it then too bad. Do what is best for the team.

I do think how a free agent views players treatment is a minor issue and maybe even a large one for some. I don't think they care if someone feels slighted on that team if the team is better for it. I think it takes a trend in organizational actions combined with a failure to improve after said moves to make someone feel a team treats it's players poorly. Moving a good defensive shortstop to third for a great one while also addressing a team weakness wouldn't be any sort of detriment for potential free agents. It would be obvious why they did it.

[endaround]

No players hardly ever get moved, and they especially don't get moved when they can defensively handle the position they play. There are very few Hall cases out there. Soriano threw a fit and he couldn't even play the infield! Sheffield threw balls into the stands. ARod already was getting paid and Jeter threw a tantrum.

[jjfanec]

ARod already was getting paid and Jeter threw a tantrum.

I agree with a lot of what you said and you make a good point here. The only way we move positions for hardy is if he already getting paid. If we extend him then I think a move would work because he would be getting a raise already. I doubt they would move him without extending him.

[BrewCrewForever]

I hope we don't trade Hardy. I would rather see him moved to 3B to make room for Escobar then moved off the team. I think he can put up the numbers offensively for a 3B and I know he will stick it there and make all the long throws with no problem. To me Hardy is the 3rd most important piece on this team behind Braun and Gallardo. i would trade Fielder or Hart before Hardy.

[Menace II Sobriety]

"There must be plenty of examples all over that the things you think will happen for you to be so arrogantly sure of your position so why not share a few? Then again you already have him in pinstripes in two years making 100 million over 8 years so you must be all seeing all knowing. "

 

First of all using Bill Hall and his position changes as a positive are definitely incorrect. Hall asked for a trade was denied and we are stuck with a horrible contract that we can't give away.

 

http://msn.foxsports.com/...d-this-series-impact-Vlad's-future-in-Anaheim??CMP=OTC-K9B140813162&ATT=49

 

"The Brewers' J.J. Hardy is realistic about his future with the club, knowing he likely will be traded to make room at shortstop for Alcides Escobar, one of the game's top shortstop prospects.

In fact, Hardy recalls being impressed by Escobar the first time he saw him, when Hardy was rehabilitating a shoulder injury at the Brewers' spring-training facility in Arizona in 2004.

(The Brewers) had brought over a ton of new kids from the Dominican and Venezuela, all 16 and 17 years old," Hardy says. "I picked out Escobar out of all the guys. I didn't even know he was a shortstop. But he was having fun, smiling, laughing. I gave him bats and gloves. The next thing I knew, he was the shortstop who was going to take my job."

or this one

 

http://msn.foxsports.com/...ry/8581702/Notebook:-Yost's-firing-could-have-ripple-effect?CMP=OTC-K9B140813162&ATT=49

 

 

• Trading J.J. Hardy is more likely than moving him to third base. Hardy is under team control for two more seasons. The Jays, Tigers, Royals, Twins, Giants, Dodgers, and Cardinals could be in the market for a shortstop. Demand certainly outstrips supply.
• Demand outweighs supply this season and I have read that JJ already stated that he did not want to move positions. My position on trading him is simple if you get an offer you can't refuse you take it, if not figure it out. As far as position players the only one in my eyes that is untouchable is Braun. That simple, everybody else has a market value until they are willing to take a team friendly deal. No Pujols type contracts are going down with the system we have. We all knew for years we couldn't keep everyone and the time is coming to make tough choices. JJ is great sure, but that means so is his value in a trade.
   
   

[RockCoCougars]

I'm not sure trading Hardy would be a good move - especially for a mediocre starter. At this point, I'm not convinced that Escobar is ready to hit major league pitching. For all we know, he could be the next Royce Clayton (good field, no hit). You never know, maybe Escobar could be the centerpiece in a deal for a pitcher. At this point, I'd be more interested in trading the unknown quantity over the proven one.

[ILuvDaBush]

Or we could have the next Carlos Gomez. No OBP, all average, but stellar defense at a premium position and speed to burn. My only fear is burning up his arby clock, but it has to be wound sometime.

[RightFieldCoder]

Here is the rational for trading Hardy rather than Escobar. Hardy will start making Millions in Arby, while Escobar will be making minimum wage. Are the Brewers better off spending the money on the upgrade at SS for Hardy, or trading Hardy for some good players and putting the money towards something else (re SP)? There is no clear answer since Escobar is still a question mark. These are the kind of decisions that need to be made to compete against higher payroll teams.

 

I would take the approach SD is taking with Peavy. We shouldn't actively shop Hardy, but we should inquire into seeing what teams are willing to give up. Is there a team that is so desperate for a good SS that they will overpay in pitching and other prospects? But I have to believe that StL is out of the question.

[Roderick]

I'm not really understanding why everyone is so eager to show Hardy the door, so that there is an opening for Escobar.

I think there are a three reasons that combine to make Hardy a hot topic.

 

Hardy is the one young player that isn't signed long-term that had a good season and the Brewers would be selling high (versus low for Fielder, Hart, etc) plus he is the one player that we have a legitimate prospect with a known position in the minors to replace him in the near future (2010 imo) plus we have a limited budget and Hardy is into his 2nd year of arbitration ($5M? for 2009) whereas Escobar would be making the $400K salary for three years and that $4.5M+ would go a long way towards pitching.

 

I agree with Robin19 in seeing what the value is. I doubt I would trade Hardy for one more year, but it's nice to play hot stove GM and if you were bowled over for what you could get for him .................

[brewizard]

Is it me, or is this talk of trading Hardy a lingering bit of Milwaukee's non-competitive attitude bred by 26 years of failure?

 

Hardy is one of the big reasons for the Brewer's climb from mediocre to playoff bound. Trading him only to start a rookie question mark at SS makes no sense for a team looking for that extra win or two to take them to the WS. Trading Hardy signals another long round of rebuilding, and it may be another 26 years before the Brewers go all October on us again!

 

Yes, Hardy is worth more in trade right now than at any point since he has been a major leaguer. He is probably worth more in trade right now than anybody else on the team. Does that mean the Brewers should trade him? That's certainly what they would have done for -say- Sexson.

 

But the Brewers were brutally bad when they traded Sexson. They are now a decent team - thanks in large part to Hardy. Trading Hardy now makes no sense to me.

 

My guess is that if the Brewers were to pay Hardy instead of shove him out the door, he would be more than happy to play third base because it is easier. But the key is to pay Hardy. The Brewers need to resign Melvin, find a manager, and pay Hardy this offseason!

 

The only way I'd trade Hardy is if he brought back a ridiculously high price - a number one type pitcher plus lots of great prospects. Then, I might do it, but I'd still be thinking it was a mistake.

[TheCrew07]

Is it me, or is this talk of trading Hardy a lingering bit of Milwaukee's non-competitive attitude bred by 26 years of failure?

It's just you. Trading Hardy or Fielder has nothing to do with a loser mentality and everything to do with addressing the hole(s) in the rotation. I personally believe in building from the pitching staff on down, but since the farm system isn't producing pitchers and the FA market stinks in my opinion the only way left to acquire solid pitchers is via the trade route. The system has a replacement in Escobar (regardless of what other posters here on the site think about him) for Hardy, and in spite of Fielder's offensive prowess his defensive issues are difficult to ignore and there is no way he's signing long term Milwaukee. Their is no 1B prospect even close in the system because LaPorta was burned for Sabathia, so 1B would most likely have to be addressed through FA, and I'd rather spend money on bats than arms.

 

I don't want to repost 8 months worth of ideas and reasoning behind my opinions, and I don't expect you to agree, but these ideas have been thrown around so much in the minor league and transaction forums that the hypothesis that we'd rather sabotage the team and keep losing irritates me. If you don't agree that Hardy or Fielder should be moved that's fine, but that doesn't mean those of us that do are losers at heart.

[Ennder]

I still think Gamel is Fielder's replacement.

[fleehaw]

Hardy in two years is looking at 8 years/$100m to replace Jeter in pinstripes. He's not moving to 3B.

Let's go with that figure as it seems in the right ballpark. It breaks down to $12.5M per year. Hardy has 2 more years of arby which I'd guess he get around $7M in '09 and $9M in '10. That's $16M and along with the $100M from above is $116M over 10 years or $11.6M per year.

 

The Brewers could very easily offer Hardy something along the lines of 5yrs/$50M. That's got to be in the ballpark for him and given the fact he'll only be 31 when that contract is up, he'd still be looking at another big deal. I have never spoken to Hardy, nor do I know his intentions, but the security of getting set up for life NOW plus having the strong possibility of having another big payday in around 5 years should be somewhat appealing. Hardy has had injuries (I'm not calling him injury prone), so cashing in now might be worth it to him instead of risking his future on his performance and health in the next 2 years. So, his departure is not a foregone conclusion.

 

Let's say he does sign a long term deal. He would man SS until such a time as Escobar is seen as ready (which is not now). This is likely not until 2010 at the earliest. At that point, you discuss with Hardy the idea of him moving to 3B. If he agrees, you have stellar defense on the left side and what should be above-average offense at both positions for a competitive price. If he disagrees, then you explore options of trading one of Hardy or Escobar (very likely Hardy). Hardy would be under control for 3 or 4 years at a legitimate price for his talents. Thus, his value would still be very high (if he continues doing what he's doing).

 

If he doesn't want a long term deal, you stand pat until Escobar proves he's ready to take over. Most likely, you'd trade Hardy after the '09 season. The return would most likely be lower than this offseason, but the product on the field is unlikely to suffer due to his premature departure.

 

I would love an IF of Hardy, Escobar, Weeks, & Gamel in 2010. The defense should be worlds above what it is currently. And after 2009, Fielder should command a very nice package in return. If I were to trade any position player (worth anything) this offseason, it'd be Hart as he's realistically the easiest to replace. Hart for DeJesus is very appealing to me. But I digress...

[bjkrautk]

Something to think about:

 

Player A: .328 / .363 / .434 // .797 OPS

Player B: .279 / .368 / .428 // .796 OPS

 

Both players put up these stat lines at the same level (AA), with the same team (Huntsville). One of the players was a year younger than the other one.

 

 

Why are we so eager to trade the player who put up those numbers as a 20 year old (Player B), in hopes that the player who put up those numbers as a 21 year old (Player A)?

Is Escobar's ceiling essentially that he could be the next J.J. Hardy? (I went to Baseball cube to start looking at minor league numbers, and was amazed to see just how close these two were.)

 

Right now, Escobar's MLEs are on-par with Craig Counsell with less plate discipline (.280 BA, .312 OBP, .364 Slg). For those out there who want to see Hardy moved, where do you place Escobar's ceiling? J.J. would be my top player to extend, and sign to a long-term deal. If he doesn't want to move off SS, I'd rather move / trade Escobar than Hardy, since his production outweighs any dimunition in 'value' that you'd get from starting Escobar right now.

[jhart05]

You are completely throwing out the fact that Escobar is superior to Hardy on defense. And Hardy ain't that bad, so that's saying a lot.

 

Anyone who thinks Escobar will/should be/could be starting at SS at the beginning of 2009 is kidding themselves.

 

Also as well all know the Brewers are not the Yankees. The Crew will keep Escobar and trade Hardy if he doesn't want to move to 3B, if for no other reason than the cost.