Who do we pay?

[CheezWizHed]

Note: This post is mainly about how the effects of keeping our own players may effect FA signings for 2009.

 

A few years back, there was a lot of discussion about not being able to keep all of our prospects once they hit free agency. At that point, there was discussion about not signing Sheets in order to save $$ for Fielder, Braun, Hart, Hardy, etc... But it seems that the bloom has come off the rose a bit in the last year or so:

Braun: locked up! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

Fielder: Everyone seems to be under the assumption that we can't afford him in FA no matter what.

Hart: Is still a good player, despite the end of 2008. But we have similar players in the minors that could replace him in 1-3 years.

Hardy: Improving every year, but Escobar is waiting in the wings.

Weeks: Some preach patients, some scream trade. If we do keep him, I would want to see a couple years of good production before I signed him long term.

Hall: Signed (2 more years?), but I don't think we will do it again.

 

Here is my take. Our biggest organizational need is starting pitching. Over the next 2-3 years, we will have several prospects come up for OF, 3B, SS, 2B, but only one (Jeffress) as a possible impact pitcher. So if Fielder and/or Hart were traded (doesn't HAVE to be this offseason, but eventually) for pitching, that would help balance the team. I agree that Fielder will be traded eventually (before he is a FA). I would prefer he stay, but...

 

I would sign Hardy to a long term contract. I would like to see Hardy and Escobar in the same infield (probably 2010). Many have said this would not be the best for the player, but I don't see how we could get a better combination (SS/3B or SS/2B) by trading one of them. Its the Brewer's best insterest.

 

So, if we only have Braun/Hardy (maybe Hart) signed long term, that should allow us to be more aggressive in 2009 FA? Not that we could sign CC or Sheets, but perhaps we are not a strapped as previously thought?

 

Of course, this plan would fit the Twins model (sign who you can, trade who you can't, replace from the farm system) that we are trying to emulate, right?

[joepepsi]

For this winter I'd try to lock in Hardy and Bush to multiple year deals that would buy out a year or two of free agency. I'm not sure what to do with Prince. At this point my feeling is to go year by year. I'm not opposed to a longer term deal that would buy a year or two of free agency. If Parra, Yo and Villanueva put in good seasons in 2009 you look at longer term deals.

 

There's no need to lock in Weeks right now. He needs to be better than average for any long term deal. Frankly I'd be shopping Corey Hart this winter. So I'm not in favor of anything other than a year by year deal for him at this point.

[CheezWizHed]

I guess I was focused on positional players and didn't really look at our pitchers. I agree with signing Bush to lock up a couple years of FA. But I would expect them to wait a couple more years for Yo, Villanueva and especially Parra (injuries), as they are still a few years away from arbitration.

 

Where do you guys look-up arbitration/FA status for players?

[rluzinski]

Bush lucks himself to a nice ERA for a season and now people want to lock him up? His walk and strikeout rate has regressed for two years in a row. The Brewers still have him for 2 years. Good enough for me.

[joepepsi]

Bush lucks himself to a nice ERA for a season and now people want to lock him up? His walk and strikeout rate has regressed for two years in a row. The Brewers still have him for 2 years. Good enough for me.

I've always liked him. We've seen what average, never-gets-injured starters get on the open market: 4yrs/$40 million. I'd like to have him for 3 or 4 more years at a lesser cost.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

I wouldn't. 2 more years of Bush is just fine. Then let some other team overpay for Suppan 2.0.

[CheezWizHed]

Bah! For some reason, I keep thinking Bush is younger than he is. So knowing that he will be a FA at age 31, I'll pass also.

 

But there was the thinking that we couldn't spend money now (at the time it was to extend Sheets) because we couldn't swallow the contract and still afford when our hitters became FAs. Since it seems less likely that we will extend a few of them (Weeks, Fielder, Hart), would it open up the opportunity to sign a SP now? Lowe has been mentioned, or even CC (I'm still holding out a little hope)?

 

Because without upgrading the SP staff, I don't see us improving or even duplicating 2008.

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

I agree with Rillo...Bush did very well post-May this year, but he is a poor man's Suppan. He should be a very solid #4-5 starter for the next 2 seasons. That is plenty enough for me.

 

I'd like to see us attempt to sign Hardy & Fielder to longer-term deals (ala Braun) that buyout a year or two of Free Agency. This will be increasingly difficult to acheive...they are too close to FA to give in on a contract. At least we have them at affordable rates for the next 2/3 years respectively...I see no reason to let them go before that. At that point we potentially have their replacements ready in Escobar & Gamel. Maybe they could deal Hardy after next season if the price is right.

 

I would NOT trade Prince for pitching. He is our only significant LH bat. Take Prince out of that lineup and they will have an even tougher time scoring runs. We have three dependable bats...Braun, Fielder and Hardy. This lineup can not afford to give up any of those guys and not expect to lose more in run production than is likely gained in pitching.

[CheezWizHed]

I would NOT trade Prince for pitching.

But would you in 2010 or 2011 if he hasn't signed an extension? Just about everyone here would love to see Prince sign an extention, but I'm not convinced he will.

I'm not talking about trading him in 2009 as we have no replacement (as you mentioned). Hopefully by 2010/11 the next wave of prospects will have softened the blow of losing Prince.

 

PF has three arbitration years before FA, right (2009, 2010, and 2011)?

[BrewCrewRising]

Bush lucks himself to a nice ERA for a season and now people want to lock him up? His walk and strikeout rate has regressed for two years in a row. The Brewers still have him for 2 years. Good enough for me.

 

Blasphemy. Bush proved himself to be a big game pitcher. Therefore he is worth Suppan money at a Suppan like deal, proposed to him at Mark A's house.

[Baldkin]

I'm an advocate of trading Prince this off season. We'll get much more value for him than we would after next year especially if he puts up another 'barely above average' line for a 1B, and terrible defense again. He finished 8th amongst 1B in VORP, which doesn't take defense into account. His defense was probably the 2nd worst amongst 1B in baseball.

 

If we can get a top of the line, MLB ready pre-arby guy for him I'd be for it.

[jjfanec]

This question of who do we pay was a lot tougher last year I think. Hart struggled badly in the second half so he is not a position to be extended. Weeks has not developed as one would have hoped. Braun is locked up already. Fielder is a possibility but I don't think it will happen. That leaves Hardy. He is rumored as trade-bait but also makes sense to lock up as he is a more complete/polished and improving player than Hart or Weeks and wont demand near as much as Prince (who wouldnt take an extension deal anyway).

[LS Brewer]

As far as positional players go, JJ Hardy is the only player I would look to lock up longer term with the type of deal Billy Hall received a couple years ago. He has gotten better every year and his .821 OPS for 2008 has to put him in the top 10 shortstops in the league. Besides, his defense is solid. Hardy is a premium player at a premium position.

[Ennder]

I don't pay Fielder but I trade him next year not this year because right now his value is low because of what I consider nothing but an off season for him.

 

I'm all for locking Hardy up, I don't have a ton of faith in Escobar so I'm not going to change my plans based on some light hitting defense specialist who might end up being a AAAA guy and might not be in the majors until 2010 or 2011.

 

I don't sign Hart long term because I think his OBP issues are for real and not just a blip in the radar, gotta play wait and see for another year on him. Unfortunately at this point I don't think we can do much with Weeks but take him year by year and hope he puts it all together.

 

Bush/Capuano types are not the type of guys you spend a lot of cash on so I don't worry about those two but if Parra/Gallardo stay healthy next year I start to think about locking them up long term.

 

I think the best idea is to pay for decent OBP guys with good defense and for high potential SP. You let mediocre stuff pitchers, bad fielders and low OBP guys walk because SLG in general is over priced.

[rousieboy]

This may sound premature as he is not even arbitration eligible but ink Yo to an extension that starts in 2011...and make it basically the same deal Soria got from the Royals...

 

(http://mlbcontracts.blogs...ansas-city-royals_28.html change 09 to '11 and so on...)

11:$1M, 12:$3M, 13:$4M, 14:$6M club option, 15:$8M club option, 16:$8.75M club option ($0.75M buyout for each option)

 

I would offer reasonable contracts to PFielder (again), Hardy, try to get Shouse back even if he wants a 2 year deal. If Fielder continues to refuse then Gamel should break out a new glove.

[joepepsi]

I wouldn't. 2 more years of Bush is just fine. Then let some other team overpay for Suppan 2.0.

I don't think anyone is advocating signing Bush at free agent pricing. The idea is buy out one year of free agency with maybe an option for another. If you do it this winter the contract has a better chance of staying reasonable, then you can always trade him a year or two down the road when all those wonderful Brewer pitching prospects make the big leagues. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

[ILuvDaBush]

I'd be a bit leery of signing JJ for the same reason many were questioning the merit of signing Corey last winter. Yo would be at the top of my list, followed closely by Bush (poor man's Suppan? More like poor man's Oswalt or Carpenter). He has lead our team in shutouts, wins, and has willed our team to victory on multiple occasions. He also had a longer npo-hit bid than CC last year. And finally, the guy I would lock up long term before all these players is Doug Melvin. Jack Z. may get the credit for the scouting of the prospects, but they are limbs, while Melvin is the brains of the body. Much like our owner, he isn't afraid to go against the norm, whether it be with the Sexson deal where we got 6 players we could later trade for other needs, or whether it be signing Cameron/Kendall/Gagne, with only one guaranteed year, thus forcing them to prove their worth, or lack thereof in one such case. Nevertheless, he isn't afraid to take a chance. Pay the man.