Derek Lowe

[PKBadger]

I'm terrible at estimating what a guy will get in the FA market - any idea what kind of contract he'll get?

 

Assuming we can't re-sign Sabathia, I think Lowe would be the next best option - nobody else really knocks my socks off (maybe Dempster or Garland). He's 36 years old, but he's never gone on the DL and has made at least 32 starts/year for the last 7 years. Plus his stats have been very consistent with the Dodgers. Would a 3-year contract be enough or would some other team give him 4? I'm guessing that a 2-year offer would be laughed at.

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/l/lowede01.shtml

[trwi7]

Probably 3/45ish. I like him a lot, don't know if he'd have an interest in playing here but if would have an interest and could get him on a three year deal, I'd be all for it.

[PeaveyFury]

Assuming Sheets and Sabathia are gone, Lowe is my priority #1 this offseason for the Brewers, but would certainly be a tough sign for the reasons trwi mentioned. Still, money talks.

 

Priority 1B is Teixeiria if we decide to move Prince for pitching, which seems to be the most logical and cost-effective way to get decent non-ancient pitching without paying 20 million per year.

[The Heartbreak Yid]

If you guys want Lowe, and I dont blame you, you better hope that the Yankees somehow manage to sign CC. If they dont, Lowe is next on their list, and I cant see The Brewers, or any other team having a shot in hell at outbidding them, especially when they'll end up giving him a ridiculous contract that will screw up the market for pitchers more than the Kyle Lohse deal already has. Brewers may end up settling for a John Garland or Paul Byrd type, which wouldnt be horrible as a number 3, as long as Dave Bush or Princes Punching Bag turn out to be a legit number 2.

[PeaveyFury]

If they dont, Lowe is next on their list, and I cant see The Brewers, or any other team having a shot in hell at outbidding them, especially when they'll end up giving him a ridiculous contract that will screw up the market for pitchers more than the Kyle Lohse deal already has.

 

I think that's a fair point. The Brewers can try to sign Lowe early, though, while the CC sweepstakes is still in full gear, and hopefully a guy like Lowe gets lost in the competition. I don't see CC being a quick sign for anyone, really.

[dadofandrew]

3y/$50M is a sound estimate. He might get 4y.

[davego]

Good point made in going after Lowe early in the process, maybe before the market gets way (more) stupid.

[endaround]

Assuming Sheets and Sabathia are gone, Lowe is my priority #1 this offseason for the Brewers, but would certainly be a tough sign for the reasons trwi mentioned. Still, money talks.

 

Priority 1B is Teixeiria if we decide to move Prince for pitching, which seems to be the most logical and cost-effective way to get decent non-ancient pitching without paying 20 million per year.

 

Texeria is likely looking for 6yrs/$110m, I doubt the Brewers do that for a 1B.

[joepepsi]

Texeria is likely looking for 6yrs/$110m, I doubt the Brewers do that for a 1B.

Well then you're better off keeping Prince and applying the money to signing a pitcher.

 

Lowe has a 3.21 ERA at Dodger stadium and a 3.99 everywhere else in his 4 years in the NL. Over those 4 years he's given up 55 unearned runs. Does that seem like a high number to you? His overall ERA with the Dodgers is 3.58, but his runs allowed average is 4.17. In 2008 his RAA away from Dodger stadium was 5.17. At home it was 2.30. Dave Bush's RAA for the season was 4.48.

 

He's as extreme groundball pitcher as there is in the game. That must explain the high number of unearned runs. I'm not sure the Brewers have the infield defense that would keep Lowe as successful as he's been with the Dodgers.

[The Heartbreak Yid]

It wont matter when negotiations start, he knows what the market for quality pitchers is like. When you have 4-5 starters like Marquis, Suppan, and now Lohse making between 9-10 mil, Lowe is goiong to want a 4 year deal, probably at around 12-13 mil a year. Depending on what happens with the AJ Burnett situation, Lowe will probably be the second most persued starter in the off season.

[StearnsFTW]

I want no part of Lowe with our infield defense. I think he'll be waaaay overpaid to just be average which is what he's likely to be outside of dodger stadium. As far as Tex, i'd sign him to 6/110 in a heartbeat. Trade Prince for pitching. He's worth 18 a year, far more than Lowe is worth 16.

[Hammer]

Texeria is likely looking for 6yrs/$110m, I doubt the Brewers do that for a 1B.

Well then you're better off keeping Prince and applying the money to signing a pitcher.

Not really in my opinion. Prince needs to be in the AL...and soon. He is not a 1st baseman by any stretch of the imagination...and this is costing the team runs nearly on a nightly basis.

[joepepsi]

Prince needs to be in the AL...and soon. He is not a 1st baseman by any stretch of the imagination...and this is costing the team runs nearly on a nightly basis.

If that were true the Brewers' pitching staff would have had the lowest team ERA in a generation!

[Hammer]

Prince needs to be in the AL...and soon. He is not a 1st baseman by any stretch of the imagination...and this is costing the team runs nearly on a nightly basis.

If that were true the Brewers' pitching staff would have had the lowest team ERA in a generation!

Error-caused runs do not hit the ERA. Fielder had 17 errors this year and missed too many scoops to count. To me, he is the worst 1st baseman in the league...hands down.

[StearnsFTW]

He is the worst first baseman i've ever seen, and he'll only get worse as he gets fatter. Extreme groundball pitchers should be avoided, imo, until the infield defense isn't atrocious.

[joepepsi]

Oh I won't argue with you about Fielder's defense, he is pretty terrible. But the Brewers finished 4th in the league in fewest runs allowed. They had 63 unearned runs. Here's the unearned run total of some other teams:

Dodgers 56

D-Backs 70

Phillies 53

Mets 52

Marlins 59

Cubs 47

Astros 48

Cards 46

 

I agree with you the Brewers need to improve team defense and Prince is part of the problem. I just think you are overstating the problem.

[davego]

He is the worst first baseman i've ever seen, and he'll only get worse as he gets fatter. Extreme groundball pitchers should be avoided, imo, until the infield defense isn't atrocious.

 

...Joey Meyer aside, I assume?

[StearnsFTW]

Ok. Ok. I may have overstated it a bit, but he is downright awful. I think the rest of the Brewers' infield "defense" is skewing my memory a bit.

[joepepsi]

At any rate, while Lowe has had a fine career, I agree that with this defense and away from Dodger stadium the Brewers might be paying $12-15 million a year for Dave Bush type results.

[TheCrew07]

Texeria is likely looking for 6yrs/$110m, I doubt the Brewers do that for a 1B.

Well then you're better off keeping Prince and applying the money to signing a pitcher.

To each his own but I'd much rather pay 18 mil/year for Teixeira (which might be a tad high) than I would for Sheets, or 15 for Lowe, or any other free agent pitcher. I've said all along I'm not against spending money, but if they're going to spend it I'd rather they spend it on a bat than pitching, there's simply far less risk with a bat.

 

To me this is the year to sign a "name" if they are going to do it, because we'll have 4 draft picks coming back to compensate for the 1 we lose. We have no in house super prospect at 1B anymore, and Fielder will never be more valuable than he is today. We'll have a hole in the rotation and our closest in house solution is Jeffress (top of the rotation quality, McClung probably wouldn't be bad, mid 4s era). Instead of spending money on declining pitchers who have a tendancy to get hurt (most pitchers do), spend the money where we get the most bang for the buck.

 

Also, assuming Prince gets traded, what better way to lessen the blow than to sign Teixeira? The offensive drop off becomes irrelevent. Is it likely? No way. I'd much rather go the extra 3 mil for a hitter than hope to get value from a Burnett type (who's no better than Bush at 4 times the cost). I'm not a big PR guy, but I will grundingly concede the Brewers would have to do something to "soften the blow".

 

I agree with others that Lowe doesn't make sense in relation to the rest of the team... no ground ball pitcher (didn't we have this same conversation about Suppan?) is going to do well with Prince at 1B, Rickie at 2B, and our current platoon at 3B. However if the pieces change on the infield, Hardy to 2B or 3B, a different 1B, whatever... then a Lowe type acquisition makes much more sense in the context of the current makeup of the team. That being said, they'll probably acquire Lowe putting him in a position to fail, because he's the most affordable FA option (relatively speaking), much like Cameron this last off season. Not that Cameron has failed, he did exactly what I expected him to do, I mean that he really wasn't a solution in relation to the team, like many of us said at the time he's just more of what we already had, except he plays D.

[nate82]

Actually this off season I believe Brad Penny maybe the cheapest option the Brewers could get and they could do another Cameron signing with him. Offer Penny a 1 year deal with a team option for a second year. I wouldn't mind doing that with Sheets also if it comes down to it and we are not able to trade either Prince or Hardy for a starting pitcher. Either sign Sheets or Penny to a one year deal with a team option for the second year or a buyout option.

 

It would be a win win situation for the Brewers and for Sheets or Penny they would be able to build up their stock again.

[fleehaw]

Actually this off season I believe Brad Penny maybe the cheapest option the Brewers could get and they could do another Cameron signing with him. Offer Penny a 1 year deal with a team option for a second year. I wouldn't mind doing that with Sheets also if it comes down to it and we are not able to trade either Prince or Hardy for a starting pitcher. Either sign Sheets or Penny to a one year deal with a team option for the second year or a buyout option.

 

It would be a win win situation for the Brewers and for Sheets or Penny they would be able to build up their stock again.

I agree with you. And I'll add one more to your list of 1 year deals, Randy Johnson. He's more of a 5th starter due to endurance these days, but he put up very nice numbers last season (below average 1st half, very good 2nd half) and it's quite possible that Arizona doesn't resign him . If Penney is relatively healthy, he'd be my 1st choice (since I think Sheets will sign a multiyear deal somewhere), but Johnson would be an alright fall back. Him grabbing his 300th win in Milwaukee wouldn't be bad either.

 

I also think a solid stop-gap SP is the way to go in '09 (not to mention a stop-gap 3B). It's a good bet that one of Fielder, Hardy, Weeks, or Hart is dealt after the '09 season. A young SP is a likely target. And with Escobar & Gamel having a full year at AAA, they could very well be ready to step in if a deal does go down not to mention another year under the belt of Jeffress, Cain, Salome, & Gilespie. I think you'll get a much better picture of where these prospects fit in the Brewers' plans after next season.

 

P.S. Penney and Johnson will not require draft pick compensation to sign. Another bonus. Technically Sheets wouldn't either, but you could argue he'd cost you at least a sandwich pick by resigning him.

[endaround]

If Penny is healthy, he isn't a free agent.