The Trade Corey Hart Topic

[joepepsi]

Remember when we didn't trade Bill Hall at his high point? I have the same feeling towards Corey Hart.

Me too. The main difference is hart was actually good in the minors. There was no precedent for Hall to hit 35 homers in a season. Hart still has value and can contribute to a team. If it wasn't for that contract, Hall would have entered that stage of signing one year deals, traveling from team to team.

[Fear The Chorizo]

The lovefest with Bill hall came largely after his 35-hr year that he played mainly as a SS - that season has proven to be the aberration in his career stats. Hindsight's always 20/20, but imagine what the Brewers could have gotten via trade for him after that season, before they gave him his current contract?

 

As for Corey Hart, I think he'll be ok - Kapler's injury forced the Brewers to run Hart out there every day even though he was struggling and looked like he needed time off to clear his head and rest a bit.

 

Escobar is definitely not ready offensively to play in the majors next season, but I'm not ruling him out of playing in Milwaukee starting in 2010 - he's played against older, more developed competition during his entire minor league career. Let's see what he can do in AAA as a 21-22 year old. I think if he continues to fill into his frame the power will come (he did have a decent # of HR last year, correct?) - his big concern needs to be plate discipline. He's got to draw more walks and get on base with his speed.

[fleehaw]

MLBTR indicates that the Rays have some interest in Hermidia. Hart has been better than Hermidia the last 2 years and both play RF. The Rays do make for an interesting trade partner. They have plenty of pitching along with an extra 3B in Aybar. Any ideas on what would make it worthwhile to the Brewers?

[reillymcshane]

i remember when Hermida came up - he had a 100+ walks at AA at age 21, and i thought he was going to 20 HR, .290 hitter with tons of walks. I thought he was going to be special. I don't know what happened to him (I haven't really watched him much in the bigs and haven't read scouting reports). He's still pretty young. I read that FLA folks felt he wasn't that passionate about the game, and he got moody/disinterested when he did poorly or he didn't start.

[sveumrules]

just saw this note over at fangraphs.com about corey...

 

For instance, did you know that Corey Hart of the Brewers had a 68.9% F-Strike this year? Yeah, over two-thirds of his plate appearances began with him down in the count 0-1, or ended after just one pitch.

[joepepsi]

How many were swinging strikes?

[Never Outhustled]

When he comes out and hits like .260 with not enough walks or power in AAA this year I just don't see them bringing him up to start next year.

What evidence suggests this will happen? When have we had a top prospect hit well in AA, then struggle in AAA? If history is our guide, Escobar will hit even better in AAA, as all of our other top prospects have done.

 

His only offensive skill is AVG and a lot of it has come from bunt singles

While I don't like bunting, his ability to bunt for hits makes it easier to believe he can consistently hold a high average.

[endaround]

The evidence is that the last MI who had an really high BABIP in Huntsville came crashing down in AAA last year. And Iribarren actually has some plate discipline.

[Oldcity]

Sure bunting can help maintain a high average, but it's over-represented in something like slugging percentage. A bunt single does not have the same value as a swinging single, so his presumably low-ish slugging percentage would be even lower.

[joepepsi]

endaround wrote:The evidence is that the last MI who had an really high BABIP in Huntsville came crashing down in AAA last year. And Iribarren actually has some plate discipline.

 

Whoa, spooky!

Iribarren in Huntsville: .307/.363/.430

Escobar in Huntsville: .328/.363/.434

 

Of course there are differences, the biggest Escobar is 2-1/2 years younger and reportedly a great defensive player. But Iribarren is a lefty bat. Can he play 2B or is that just a myth? He played a lot of OF last year, which makes his MLB future almost non existent.

[Never Outhustled]

When he comes out and hits like .260 with not enough walks or power in AAA this year I just don't see them bringing him up to start next year.

 

The evidence is that the last MI who had an really high BABIP in Huntsville came crashing down in AAA last year. And Iribarren actually has some plate discipline.

So because Iribarren went from 307 to 277, Escobar will go from 328 to 260? I think your ratios need some adjustment.

 

Escobar and Iribarren are 2 differnent prospects in the fact that Escobar's bat has been gaining momentum as Escobar matures physically, while Iribarren is losing momentum as he closes in on being maxxed out as a hitter. The fact that Escobar has done what he's done at such a young age shouldn't be ignored, nor should his emerging home run power.

[colbyjack]

Since stats seem to be the theme here for why or why not to get excited about certain prospects, I suggest you check out Iribarren's numbers playing in Venezuela this fall.

 

Escobar's excitement level has always been about his glove. To see him improve offensively is incredibly encouraging. I agree that he needs time in AAA to make sure he's as close to big-league ready as possible, but I'm not going to go out of my way to find a reason not to like the young man's ability.

[TheCrew07]

I expect Hardy to get better again next year and Escobar to take at least 2 years in AAA before his bat is major league ready so I wouldn't trade him.

What? 2 full years in AAA? That's borderline irrational at best... I would say 2 full years only because you want JJ through the duration of arby, not because Escobar won't be a capable replacement. Your dislike and irrational production expectations are reaching absurd levels. The kid is one of the best prospects in all of baseball, not just the Brewer system. I have no idea what you could possibly be basing your opinion on other than MLEs that didn't like his BABIP, which don't really mean anything going into next season, and a solid arguement can be made that they don't mean anything period. Every single stat in in his line is trending upwards, as he's progressing to higher levels in the minors... we aren't talking about TGJ who's been a flatline productivity wise, we're talking about a latin kid who many scouts consider the best SS in MiLB and who continues to make improvements in his game year to year. He doesn't have to hit 25 HRs like JJ to be as valuable, I can get behind many of your arguements but I don't understand this irrational opinion of Escobar.

 

BABIB is just a metric, and one that I think people misinterpet. If a given players BABIB is high, he's likely hot, hitting good hitters pitches and hitting them hard... Regressing to mean just means he slumps and his numbers even out. When a guy has a high average, like Escobar, Salome, or Gamel in 2008... they absolutely raked all year. In Gamel's case he slumped for 2 months and still had a tremendous season... obviously they aren't going to sustain BABIP over .350, but give the kids their due for absolutely crushing the ball for an extended period of time. That's talent, not a statistical anomoly, these kids are capable hitters.

 

Do I want Escobar or Gamel on opening day? I'd rather they start in AAA but it depends on the circumstances involved... I can envision scenarios where I would be thrilled to have Escobar or Gamel... for example, LAA trading Hardy for Santana.or the Rays trading us Shields for Fielder... I believe the Brewers can be a better team and lose a cog from this year's offense, maybe not a better team in 09 than 08, but definately better in 10 than 08. These trades get discussed based solely on offensive merits, comparing the incumbent to his replacement, when the issues are much deeper than that. So this disucssion really comes down to one thing, are people willing to trade position players for pitching or not? We have to give value to get value, so trading spare parts like Hall isn't going to get it done. It seems to me that this argument is split along those lines, to trade or not to trade, and when to trade. I'm in the trading camp, I don't care if it's this offseason or next, I just want them to jump on a good deal for pitching. I still feel that's the best way to acquire young/affordable pitching, as they are the best pitching value in MLB. If we're spending money I'd still rather trade Fielder, let CC walk, and get in the Teixeira sweepstakes... I'd rather sign a hitter then a pitcher, and a guy like Teixeira keeps the offense productive and improves the defense, which in turn improves the pitching again.

 

 

edit. How is it reasonable to compare the Hurricane to Escobar? The situations are totally dissimilar in every way except that Nashville is still the AAA affiliate and their lines were somewhat similar a year apart. As X pointed out one player trending upwards, the other plateauing, why not just say Escobar will fail because TGJ's numbers got worse? Nashville was absolutely abysmal this season, no one but Branyan hit well, it wasn't just one guy, the team literally showed no signs of life all year.. Dillon played significantly worse there this year than he did the year before as well, most all of the vets trended negatively, not just Iribarren.