The Trade Corey Hart Topic

[ILuvDaBush]

What about this....

 

The Brewers trade:

Hardy

Hart

Suppan

Lucroy...though it may take the Angel "Grand" Salome

 

The Tigers trade:

Verlander

Magglio

Inge

 

The Tigers supposedly have interest in Hardy, as well as interest in unloading Magglio's contract. Supposedly, last offseason, they were also interested in getting out from under Inge's contract. They free themselves of those two contracts, though at the cost of their ace. But in return, they get Hardy, Hart (who may be coming off a poor year, but he is but a year removed from putting up Soriano-type numbers), Suppan (an innings-eating pitcher who can be plugged in for Verlander's 200IP) and a catching prospect.

[Ennder]

Tigers should probably be trading for pitching, not trading it away.

[nate82]

I wouldn't mind trading Hart and Salome for Crawford and Sonnanstine. I doubt that would be enough for both Crawford and Sonnanstine but it would be a starting point at least.

[Brawndo the Thirst Mutilat]

Apparently the Marlins are looking to deal Jeremy Hermida:

 

http://www.marlinsbaseball.com/hermida-sought-after/

 

Hart for Hermida might make for an interesting challenge trade. Both play RF and have virtually identical service time according to Cot's (.005 years less for Hermida).

 

A recent '09 Marcel projection for both found them to be almost perfectly equal in expected hitting value:

 

Hart -- 277 / 331 / 477 for a .346 wOBA

Hermida -- 273 / 355 / 447 for a .347 wOBA

 

As far as fielding goes, most metrics had both as a little above average in RF last year. They were exactly identical in RZR (.890) and made a similar number of OOZ plays per inning (Hermida would have made 59 OOZ plays in Hart's 1376 innings to Hart's 62 OOZ plays). Previous year's RZRs are very similar as well. Tango's fan scouting reports show that we like Hart a lot more than Marlins fans like Hermida, so I suppose you have to give a nod to Hart based on subjective consensus.

 

Hart's obviously the better baserunner.

 

Hermida is two years younger and was much more highly valued as a prospect than Hart, and I'm sure most scouts would still agree has a significantly higher ceiling as a hitter. He also bats LH, and while LH-RH balance in the lineup isn't as big a deal to me as it seems to be to a lot of folks around here, I guess that still needs to be noted as a plus.

 

In sum, I think Hart has been the slightly better player to this point, but they should be considered about equal going forward, and Hermida still has some chance to break out as a genuine superstar-caliber player, which I don't think I'd say about Hart.

 

I think it would be a pretty fair straight-up trade (you'd be hard-pressed to find two more astonishingly equal players in nearly every important respect), and the market may still value things like RBI and SB enough that we could actually get the Marlins to throw a little something extra in, since most MSM-types and casual fans probably think Hart is a substantially better player.

[joepepsi]

Interesting idea. Hermida sure regressed this year though. People would think Melvin was nuts to do a straight up trade.

[nate82]

A recent '09 Marcel projection for both found them to be almost perfectly equal in expected hitting value:

 

Hart -- 277 / 331 / 477 for a .346 wOBA

Hermida -- 273 / 355 / 447 for a .347 wOBA

Do you have the numbers for Crawford. Just looking at the stats for Crawford at ESPN the only site I can get into other than here at work have Hart and Crawford almost identical with the stats I can compare them with from work.

[sbrylski]

Why trade Hart for another Hart? Not sure I understand the direction this thread took.

[Brawndo the Thirst Mutilat]

Do you have the numbers for Crawford. Just looking at the stats for Crawford at ESPN the only site I can get into other than here at work have Hart and Crawford almost identical with the stats I can compare them with from work.

I found the '09 Marcels here.

 

They have Crawford at 296 / 345 / 455 for a wOBA of .346, so yes, he also projects as an equally valuable hitter to Hart. But whereas Hart and Hermida are both entering arbitration for the first time, Crawford is already signed to a arb-buyout extension that has options for '09 and '10 (8.25 mil and 10 -11.5 mil depending on escalators). So you'd have Crawford for one fewer year, and he'd cost more than either Hart or Hermida during the time you'd have him. And while he's probably the best defensive LF in the business, his arm won't play in RF and he hasn't played a ton of CF, so you'd probably have to be willing to move Braun again.

 

Plus, Crawford walks as seldom as Hart does, and his perceived value has always seemed way too high to me for the player he actually is because he steals so darn many bases.

 

I'd be willing to think about Hart for Crawford plus (depending on what the plus was), or Hart for Crawford straight-up if the Rays would kick in some dough (maybe 6 mil?) to offset the price difference, but I doubt the Rays would be too interested in either of those trades.

 

Hart for Hermida plus seems much more plausible from the other team's perspective.

[Brawndo the Thirst Mutilat]

Why trade Hart for another Hart? Not sure I understand the direction this thread took.

Unless you think that Gamel should be next year's RF (which I'll grant isn't totally crazy), trading Hart to fill 3B or SP would simply open another hole that needs filling, so a challenge trade for another RF makes as much sense as a trade for either of those other 2 commodities.

 

At bottom, I brought Hermida up because I think that he will be a more valuable player over the next 3 years than Hart will.

[Ennder]

Why trade Hart for another Hart? Not sure I understand the direction this thread took.

 

Well the first reason is the people being talked about are all LH hitters which is something the team could really use. The next reason is that they expect these players to end up being better than Hart in the long run.

[yoshii8]

I think if we traded Hart, we should look to trade him for a good starting pitcher or 2b/3b leadoff spot (Chone Figgins, Brian Roberts), and then sign Bobby Abreu to a 2-3 year deal to be our rightfielder.

 

However I don't think we should trade him this off season because his value is down, and I think he will rebound next season.

[joepepsi]

I think if we traded Hart, we should look to trade him for a good starting pitcher or 2b/3b leadoff spot (Chone Figgins, Brian Roberts), and then sign Bobby Abreu to a 2-3 year deal to be our rightfielder.

 

However I don't think we should trade him this off season because his value is down, and I think he will rebound next season.

Abreu would be quite a nice pickup. Baldelli will be a free agent as well, although he is right handed.

 

I started this topic under the premise replacing a corner OF'er would be easier to do than replacing an All Star caliber ss or 1B. So just trading Hart for another RF'er would sort of disprove my premise. I doubt Jeremy Guthrie is available, but it would probably be better to package him in a deal for Guthrie, or some other quality pitcher.

[Brawndo the Thirst Mutilat]

I started this topic under the premise replacing a corner OF'er would be easier to do than replacing an All Star caliber ss or 1B. So just trading Hart for another RF'er would sort of disprove my premise.

 

For whatever reason, unless the Padres or Halos inexplicably decline options on Brian Giles or Vlad Guerrero, the FA market doesn't have any decent regular RF this offseason. As for Abreu, I'm inclined to agree with Eric Seidman's assessment over at fangraphs. He's a guy all the advanced metrics agree on -- his defense has become a complete disaster over the past couple of seasons. He might be as bad as 25 or 30 runs below an average RF, which is basically as bad as what we saw from Braun over at 3B. His hitting is still solid, but it's slipping, and he's not exactly the kind of guy you expect to age well. Even if he continues to hit at his current levels, his defense will be altogether too atrocious to justify giving him the kind of contract it will take to sign him (I'm guessing at least 15 mil per, probably at least 3 years).

 

Because MLB GMs still haven't totally gotten the hang of evaluating park factors and defense, Brian Giles would probably come cheaper than Abreu. He's a similar hitter (was actually slightly better in 08), and is a much much better fielder. He'd certainly be worth paying what he would make on the open market -- he may even be worth paying what Abreu would make, though not for 3 more years at his age -- but I highly doubt that he'll be available, since the Padres are smarter than your average bears and they have to know what an insanely good value Giles's option is (just 9 mil, and since his buyout is 3 mil, it's really only 6 mil savings if they cut him).

 

Baldelli would be a total flyer -- he's spent so much time on the DL the last 4 years that he's had around just one full season's worth of PA over that entire duration. He's a total hacker like Hart, and even if he has somehow fully recovered from his injuries, he was only an average hitter before, so that's your optimistic outlook. I can't imagine a team hoping to contend bringing him in as anything more than a reserve, unless he goes nuts in the WS or something and somebody is dumb enough to believe that means he's a big game clutch performer.

[ILuvDaBush]

Just as an aside, Baldelli is a whiz with the glove in center. So he does carry a bit of value even without the bat...which is also very good. Much like Jay Cutler had health problems that sapped his vitality, so too has Baldelli. I would be more than willing to scratch that lottery ticket.

[Brawndo the Thirst Mutilat]

Before he developed the bizarre metabolic issues, Baldelli:

 

1) tore his ACL prior to the '05 season

 

2) injured his elbow while rehabbing from that, eventually requiring Tommy John surgery to fix the damage, which caused him to miss most of '06

 

3) pulled a hammy in ST of '07, which lingered throughout the season, was aggravated during a minor league rehab stint, and ultimately caused him to appear in only 35 games.

 

That last one seems kind of weird, right? Well, those kind of muscle problems (and extreme fatigue from even light workouts) are what caused him to undergo extensive testing prior to this season. Doctors never figured out exactly what was wrong with him.

 

It might be a lottery ticket worth purchasing for like1 year and maybe a couple million bucks, tops. Anything more than that seems reckless to me. And I think you'd have to be crazy to go into a season expecting him to hold down a starting spot in the OF all year. That kind of move makes a lot more sense for the Mariners or the Nationals or somebody that doesn't have the remotest chance to contend in the first place.

 

Part of my problem is that he was never anywhere near as good a player as everybody seemed to think even during his two healthy seasons (now 4 years removed). The Joe DiMaggio comparisons, for instance, were patently absurd.

[ILuvDaBush]

The thing about Baldelli is that I always envisioned him to be Josh Hamilton, with a better glove and less power. His mitochondrial deficiency aside, he has immense talent. Now I am not advocating that we set all our hopes upon his shoulders, but if Mike Cameron were to leave or Corey Hart were to be traded, we could do worse than penciling Rocco in for 50-100 games in center/right on a contract similar to Kendall's from this year. Would he take it? I didn't expect Kendall to take the type of deal he got this year from us. If it fails, most likely it is due to Rocco being off the field due to injury, which only impairs us if we don't have a contingency plan (ie, Jr Gwynny, Kapler, Hall, FA...). But when that bat is healthy, it produces well for a CF with very good range in right.

[yoshii8]

I'd like to see Baldelli brought in as the 4th outfielder/pinch hitter, but I wouldn't want to depend on him w/ a starting role. I think that would be far to risky. What about moving Abreu to left field, and switching Braun to right field?

[Bnowell4evr]

Would anyone swap Corey Hart for Edwin Jackson?

[nate82]

Would anyone swap Corey Hart for Edwin Jackson?

Not straight up. I believe the Rays and the Brewers would also ask for something in return. It would be selling low on both of them though.

[Ennder]

Jackson's 'breakout' was just the Rays improving on defense. His K/9 is hovering just over 6 and he still gives up too many BB's. He is Dave Bush with worse control so I personally wouldn't want him.

[Bnowell4evr]

Dave Bush wishes he could throw high 90s heat like Jackson but I can see the comparison you're trying to make. I saw Edwin Jackson come in against the Redsox a couple days ago and strike out 4 in 1 1/3 innings. When I see the type of stuff he has I see a guy who could be a star in the league as a closer which is where my interest comes from. Hes still young so whos to say theres no chance he cant cut the walks down and increase his strikeouts?

Pitching, OBP and more balanced lineup is some of the major issues we have to address this offseason and in this simple trade we add some pitching we remove a glaring weaklink in OBP and a RH bat in an already right handed heavy lineup. Theres plenty of LH hitting outfielders in the league that can play right field and leadoff so this move would open up a spot for one of them.

I kinda agree that this would be trading low on Hart but what other pitchers could we get for him? Tampa is overflowing with pitching and have pretty much already said that Jackson is available plus we know Tampa loves our castoff outfielders after taking Gross from us. I think we can all agree that Corey Hart is definately an improvement over Gabe Gross so the trade makes sense for both sides IMO.

[Brawndo the Thirst Mutilat]

I think we can all agree that Corey Hart is definately an improvement over Gabe Gross so the trade makes sense for both sides IMO.

 

 

He certainly wasn't in better in '08. Gross was much better. According to numbers here and here, even if you include Gross's time in Milwaukee he was worth something like 15 - 20 more runs than Hart was on offense and defense. Hart's non-SB baserunning (steals and CS are included in the offensive values given) might eat into that difference by a couple of runs, but there's really no way that Gross wasn't at least a full win better than Hart in '08.

 

That's not to say Gross will continue to be better in '09. Hart was much better in '07. But it wouldn't surprise me much if the Rays would view subbing Hart for Gross as a lateral move.

 

Dumping Gross for nothing (I feel pretty comfortable saying that Butler is nothing at this point) was a really terrible move.

[danzig6767]

Would anyone swap Corey Hart for Edwin Jackson?

Hell no

 

Jackson still allows tons of baserunners and only truck out 108 hitters in 183 innings, along with walking 77 batters.

[joepepsi]

I believe Ryan Church is a free agent. Seems like a Church/Kapler platoon would replace Hart. Meanwhile Hart could be part of a package that improves the rotation.

[yoshii8]

I believe Ryan Church is a free agent. Seems like a Church/Kapler platoon would replace Hart. Meanwhile Hart could be part of a package that improves the rotation.

Ryan Church is not a free agent, I believe he is under the Mets control for the next 3 seasons. However if they do sign another outfielder, Church will probably be available.

I still can't believe how bad Corey Hart's second half was, you have to think that he was injured to slip that badly offensively and defensively. The more I think about it the more I hope they don't trade him this off-season, I think it would be a huge case of selling low.