Am I the only one who still isn't ready to give up on Rickie Weeks?

[jhart05]

The pitching is another step up in AAA, but it's small, not like the jump from A ball to AA.

 

I actually heard DM say this year, the pitching in the AA league that Huntsville is in, was better than the pitching in the AAA league that Nashville is in.

 

 

I would expect Escobar to be one of the worst hitters in baseball next season if he were thrust into the Majors.

 

Escobar, I kind of think of him being like Omar Vizquel. Great glove with a weak bat at the start, but will improve to be a top of the order type hitter as he gets older.

 

 

I still think Weeks will surprise all you guys who want him off the team. He had some pretty darn good offensive numbers in the 2nd half of the season, was not the reason the team wasn't scoring in September, and was one of the best players in baseball in September of 2007. That is enough for the Brewers to not give up on him yet, and why I don't think we should either.

[Thats Freakin Sweet]

I've enjoyed reading this thread, lots of interesting arguments on both sides of the discussion. Nowhere, however, do I recall reading anyone discussing why Rickie isn't hitting the ball. Discussing statistical comparisons are all fine and dandy, but it seems most here are ignoring how bad Rickie's swing is. He has a ton of holes in his swing. He simply does not square up on way too many strikes that are thrown to him. On the off occasion that a pitcher finds his miniscule wheelhouse, Rickie hammers the ball thanks to his excellent bat speed, but it doesn't happen often enough. He needs to seriously lose his obstinance and change his swing. With his pitch recognition (he does have a good BB rate), above average speed, and superior bat speed, there is no reason (except for the obvious poor swing) that he cannot be a .300 hitter with pop. I just really question whether he will forego his stubborness and find a hitting coach to rework his swing. If he isn't willing to do that, I don't want him with the Brewers.

 

I've also seen some arguments that he should move to CF. I don't like that idea. While his speed and arm strength would play, his instincts stink. I've never seen an infielder take poorer routes to balls in my life, especially when going back on flares into short center. Having that in CF would scare the hell out of me. As a 2b, I don't think he'll ever be a gold-glover, his arm is too erratic and he gets frying-pan hands from time to time, but if he can improve his offense, I'm all for keeping him there.

 

To sum up, I'm not on Rickie's bandwagon, but I don't believe he's without hope either.

[JJHardy7]

JJ, You think that's worse that this year's Weeks, Hall, Kendall, Cameron, Hart?

 

I fear adding Escobar to that mix - obviously they all wouldn't be starting together every game, but IMO it would bring the offense down a level and the way it ended this year the Brewers need to figure out how to score more runs without hitting home runs. Like I've said, if other moves are made I'd be more fine with Escobar starting. I just think adding him to the mix you have posted could lead to this team depending even more on home runs to score runs.

[pete]

Why would you move Escobar to 2nd for a year or so and then move him back to SS? That would not be developing his skills and he could come back at SS worse and it could take time for him to get back to where he was. I hate the notion of moving guys all around. It hinders development at whatever the final position is.

 

I would do it to put him on the field and to eliminate Weeks from the lineup. The reverse of what you say is true. It would develop his skills and he would lose nothing by spending a year or so there. Playing 2nd isn't like learning catcher or CF.

 

 

 

JJ should be at 3b in the future. If you're so willing to move him to 2b, you'll have to convince JJ to make less money when his contract is up or over pay for Hardy to play 2b. There's no way JJ is going to accept the move there without being paid like a SS. I personally think it's more difficult to find a 3b (see the Brewers the past few years) than it is to find an average 2b. There's a lot of moving parts in this thing..., but Hardy seems to profile pretty well at 2b and I would not want to hinder Escobar's defensive development by using him at a position for a year or so and then move him back to SS.

 

But you hate moving people around. Do you even know if JJ could play 3rd? And he profiles well at 2nd? If Escobar's defensive development was improved by playing a year at 2nd, then you'd be for it I guess.

[pete]

He's not going to be moved anywhere, so might as well save your breath talking about moving him to 2B, because they're not going to do it.

 

I assume that's an opinion, but it sounds as if you work for the Brewers in player development. Do you?

[JJHardy7]

I would do it to put him on the field and to eliminate Weeks from the lineup. The reverse of what you say is true. It would develop his skills and he would lose nothing by spending a year or so there. Playing 2nd isn't like learning catcher or CF.

 

So playing 2b would help develop SS skills? The two positions are very different IMO and there aren't all that many elite players that have played 2b and SS. If you want Escobar brought up in 2009 or 2010 he should be playing SS. Escobar's range is a huge asset and playing at 2b somewhat negates that. I'm not a Weeks guy, but Weeks OBP is actually related to him taking pitches...Escobar's is because of his high batting average. That will most surely go down in the bigs along with his OBP. I really like Escobar, but there's no way I ever take him off SS. If Hardy isn't moved/traded, Escobar should be in AAA until the situation is resolved.

 

But you hate moving people around. Do you even know if JJ could play 3rd? And he profiles well at 2nd? If Escobar's defensive development was improved by playing a year at 2nd, then you'd be for it I guess.

 

IMO Hardy's arm and range issues does profile well at 3b. I think he could play it and the Brewers have a glaring hole at 3b if Gamel can't crack it. I don't like moving people around, but the Brewers have an all-star SS and a top prospect who will be at least starting the year in AAA. Escobar should no way be moved because playing 2b for a year even is going to negate any improvement he could've had at SS. If the two are so interchangeable, why don't we try Weeks at SS? If both players are kept on the team, one of them will have to move off and Hardy's bat profiles at 3B whereas Escobar's won't (at least right away).

 

The main issue though with moving Hardy is he's about to have a nice contract. He's an all-star SS, but would be average or a little above average at 3b. Will he agree to move to any position? I respect your desire AKA Pete to get Escobar in the lineup, but I disagree that either one of them should be moved to 2b.

[pete]

Yes, playing at 2nd would help develop his skills. And honestly, the big difference between 2nd and SS is the relationship to first base. Fielding balls is the same. If you have some other reason, fine, but saying that it will harm him in some way is far-fetched in my opinion. You really like Escobar so you never want him to play at 2nd - okay, but that doesn't mean it wouldn't be good for him and the team.

 

Hardy doesn't have range issues. The reason Weeks doesn't play SS is because he isn't a very good infielder.

 

I don't see anything wrong with leaving Escobar at AAA for all or some of next year, but Weeks is average and seems to perform poorly defensively in high pressure situations.

[rluzinski]

I think there is almost no chance of Escobar being moved to 2B for 2009. His stick would probably be terrible there, for one. According to this estimate:

 

http://www.baseballthinkf...inor_league_translations/

 

We'd expect something like a .282/.308/.363/.671 line from him in the major next year. That would be hard to stomach at SS. But at 2B? Ouch.

 

They wouldn't want to move him for his first year in the majors, only to put him back at SS, anyway.

but Weeks is average and seems to perform poorly defensively in high pressure situations.

 

I think Weeks is just a poor defender overall. I don't think there's any correlation to the game situation.

[jhart05]

I assume that's an opinion, but it sounds as if you work for the Brewers in player development. Do you?

 

I wish. No, I'm just going by what I've heard and read about Escobar.

Teams do not mess around with this kind of talent, by moving the player around.

This kid was born to play SS in the majors and that's what he's going to do.

 

 

And honestly, the big difference between 2nd and SS is the relationship to first base. Fielding balls is the same.

 

I don't know if I can agree with you here. It's a different angle, a different view, for both hit balls and when turning the DP. Also, you're going to get more harder hit balls coming at you at short, due to there being more right-handed hitters. I've always felt you didn't need to play as "fast" if you're playing 2B as compared to SS. You have a little bit more time if you bobble the ball, because your throw is usually much shorter.

 

 

The only way I see Escobar in the Majors in 2009, is due to an injury to Hardy, or that the play at 3B is so poor they have no other choice but to move Hardy there, or a situation similar to Braun in 2007. If not any of those, of course as a September call up. Honestly, as it stands right now, I don't see this team making a run at the Wild Card next year without Sheets and Sabathia. Gallardo and Parra will be a nice 1-2 combo soon, but not next year. So I expect/hope to see Hardy at 3B and Escobar at SS, in September.

[homer]

Yes, playing at 2nd would help develop his skills. And honestly, the big difference between 2nd and SS is the relationship to first base.

Hardy doesn't have range issues. The reason Weeks doesn't play SS is because he isn't a very good infielder.

I think turning the DP from 2B would be a big difference.

 

And isn't the one thing that Hardy lacks on D is range? I thought that was the consensus. Maybe I'm wrong.

[1992casey]

I think it was Toby who posted a while back that the defensive metrics on Hardy were mixed. And I think the opinions observers have developed are mixed. There definitely isn't a consensus, and I don't think it's possible to be completely right or wrong.

[JJHardy7]

Yes, playing at 2nd would help develop his skills. And honestly, the big difference between 2nd and SS is the relationship to first base. Fielding balls is the same. If you have some other reason, fine, but saying that it will harm him in some way is far-fetched in my opinion. You really like Escobar so you never want him to play at 2nd - okay, but that doesn't mean it wouldn't be good for him and the team.

 

Well if you want to put Escobar at 2b for next year and beyond he should start there next year. I think there is a difference in terms of the angles both getting to the ball and making the throw. Is it a huge difference? Probably not, but the reason why it hurts Escobar's development is because he wouldn't be playing SS (a position that IMO he will be among the best in the NL on defense from day one) and he won't get to experience hitters trends at SS. I think that's an important piece to being a good defender. I still have several questions about Escobar's bat in 2009 in the bigs. I don't think it's accurate to project him hitting .275. Like I've stated before depending on how the team is made up they could get by with Escobar hitting .250/.280, but that's questionable until they make moves.

 

Hardy doesn't have range issues. The reason Weeks doesn't play SS is because he isn't a very good infielder.

 

IMO he does. I don't think it's severe enough that he's a bad defender, but I honestly think he would be a gold glove type defender at 3b in due time. JJ's range isn't going to get any better so for the long-term of his career a move to 3b would make sense. I just don't know if JJ feels that way right now.

 

I don't see anything wrong with leaving Escobar at AAA for all or some of next year, but Weeks is average and seems to perform poorly defensively in high pressure situations.

 

Well I guess it boils down to the topic of this thread. Do you want to give up on Weeks? I'm not a Weeks guy at all, but I guess I'd keep him around. Now if you want Weeks gone I think there are other options out there than moving Escobar or Hardy to 2b. I just think Escobar could be a real special player and I don't want to rush him. I know like TheCrew07 pointed out he's had plenty of at bats, but I personally think he needs to develop in terms of 'filling out'. I think this way he can come to the bigs with more legit power from day one and that will make pitchers be a bit more careful with him. I think that's an important piece of the puzzle because to be honest AA pitchers weren't afraid of him and thus his OBP was driven mostly by his batting average.

[rluzinski]

We'd probably expect Weeks to hit something like .250/.355/.415 next year (conservative guess). If the Brewers could find a replacement at 2B that could hit like that and play even average defense, I'd take that upgrade. I have no idea where you are going to find a 2B like that, though.

[bucksman4]

Rickie Weeks was no more than a platoon player at the end of the year. And he didn't even excel against LHP. I am sure Doug Melvin is smart enough to be able to find someone to fill in better than that. At some point, with this guy, you have to cut your losses. This organization can't run this 2B out there everyday for the next few years with hopes that he finally reaches his "potential."

[Ennder]

We'd probably expect Weeks to hit something like .250/.355/.415 next year (conservative guess). If the Brewers could find a replacement at 2B that could hit like that and play even average defense, I'd take that upgrade. I have no idea where you are going to find a 2B like that, though.

 

I'd say Orlando Hudson fits that line very well. .282/.346/.433/.779 for his career.

 

Rickie Weeks was no more than a platoon player at the end of the year. And he didn't even excel against LHP. I am sure Doug Melvin is smart enough to be able to find someone to fill in better than that. At some point, with this guy, you have to cut your losses

 

He had an .829 OPS in the second half and his April/May struggles were almost completely BABIP related. This isn't really accurate at all.

[endaround]

Yeah but outbidding the Mets for Hudson is very unlikely.

[sveumrules]

What does WPA mean?

 

it's a stat they track over at fangraphs.com, win probability added. their explanation...

 

"WPA is the difference in win expectancy (WE) between the start of the play and the end of the play. That difference is then credited/debited to the batter and the pitcher. Over the course of the season, each players' WPA for individual plays is added up to get his season total WPA."

 

the difference is marginal, and utley is clearly the superior player at this point, i just thought it was interesting to note. it also does not factor in defense.

 

i also agree with thatsfreakinsweet that the largest obstacle to overcome is the bat waggle. if weeks could quiet down his swing i think it would allow his best gifts as a hitter, his good eye and crazy fast hands, to really take over.

[rluzinski]

I'd say Orlando Hudson fits that line very well. .282/.346/.433/.779 for his career.

 

I guess I was setting my sights a little lower for a replacement. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif Hudson might be a .295/.360/.450 guy next year. And the fans loved his defense in 2007:

 

http://www.tangotiger.net/scouting/pos2007_2B.html

 

He's worlds better overall than Weeks will ever be. He's too good and will be too sought after this off season to get him at a reasonable cost. And he'll be 31 next year, so I'd be uncomfortable signing him to a long term deal. He'll get, what, 4 years, $10+ mil per, easy?

[southpaw121505]

We'd probably expect Weeks to hit something like .250/.355/.415 next year (conservative guess).

 

 

I'd take those numbers next year. If he finally breaks out then he passes those numbers easily. People complain (not directed at you russ) about waiting for him to reach his potential, which I agree can be frustrating waiting for, but that doesn't mean he won't ever do it. The guy kills the ball, he had more unlucky outs than anyone on the team. I'd take those numbers from him next year. I think there may be some veteran replacements out there that can match those numbers, probably with better defense, but I doubt any would have the upside of Weeks.

[logan82]

We'd probably expect Weeks to hit something like .250/.355/.415 next year (conservative guess)

 

Weeks has a career line of .245/.352/.406 so that wouldn't be much of an improvement over what he has done already. I would say that is a very conservative guess expecting almost no improvement from a 26 year old player.

[rluzinski]

I was being conservative, since people have this misconception that Weeks is a bad offensive 2B. Even a conservative projection sets the bar relatively high, offensively. His defense is the major concern, however, and it generally doesn't develop in the same way offense does. A player's defensive skills do not generally peak in their late 20's. Weeks is probably is what he is defensively at 2B. Well below average, IMO.

[Ennder]

Second Basemen

 

Geoff Blum, HOU

Miguel Cairo, SEA

Ray Durham, SF

Mark Ellis, OAK

Marcus Giles, COL

Mark Grudzielanek, KC

Orlando Hudson, ARI

Tadahito Iguchi, SD

Jeff Kent, LAD

Felipe Lopez, WAS

Mark Loretta, HOU

D'Angelo Jimenez, STL

Nick Punto, MIN

Jose Valentin, NYM

*Jose Vidro, SEA

*Jamey Carroll, CLE

 

 

There are a lot of players on that list that would be worth bringing in on a short term contract to share time with Weeks or Hall in a platoon of sorts at 2B. The only name in that list I could see outright replacing Weeks with is Hudson. The rest of them are limited playtime players, not better than Weeks or platoon types.

 

Weeks value is low right now so I still say the best option is keep him for another year and hope he breaks out.

[kramnoj]

Hudson may not get that 4/$40M deal that his success would indicate. I don't know that there are enough teams that 1. Have a need and 2. Have the money, or the desire, to spend. He's good enough that he will get a deal, but the Mets would probably be bidding against themselves if they offered a deal that high. They could probably get by with a 3/$24M type deal. It's always risky doing that, you never know if some team is desperate enough to surprise you and outbid you, and you never know if an agent is making up false offers to solicit a higher bid from you.

 

I guess it doesn't really matter to this discussion, though. I doubt Hudson is high on the Brewers wish list, and I agree that Hudson to the Mets makes the most sense. I guess someone is going to get Luis Castillo for cheap if they want this year.

[Frisbee Slider]

I think Rickie Weeks and Brandon Phillips share some similarities. Both players were called up at Ages 20/21 but did not become regular big leaguers until later. The Cleveland Indians gave up on Phillips at age 24. When Phillips turned 26, he hit 30 HRs and stole 32 bases.

Better yet, Weeks has demonstrated more of an ability to draw walks than Phillips. We can certainly hold on to Weeks for another season. He is my starting second baseman going into Spring Training barring anything unforeseen.

[Brawndo the Thirst Mutilat]

There are a lot of players on that list that would be worth bringing in on a short term contract to share time with Weeks or Hall in a platoon of sorts at 2B. The only name in that list I could see outright replacing Weeks with is Hudson. The rest of them are limited playtime players, not better than Weeks or platoon types.

Strongly disagree. You have to project Mark Ellis as very nearly as good a hitter as Hudson. Their career OPS+ is identical at 99. Ellis is just one year older. Only reason Hudson gets the nod at all offensively (as opposed to declaring it a dead heat) is that he's coming off a better season than Ellis, but this will likely make Ellis somewhat cheaper.

 

The main difference between these two players is that Ellis is by far the best defensive 2B in the big leagues, while Hudson is merely good. Advanced defensive metrics aren't perfect, but every year every one of them has Ellis at least 20 runs better than his peers (often it's closer to 30 runs better than his peers). If there is one player in the bigs I'm dead certain is worth 2 or 3 wins with his glove, it's Mark Ellis.

 

If you gave me a choice between the two, even at equal dollars, I take Ellis without blinking. But, as I said, I suspect Ellis will be cheaper, which in my view makes it impossible to choose Hudson.

 

I do agree that nobody else on that list is remotely worth thinking about in terms of displacing Weeks.