Am I the only one who still isn't ready to give up on Rickie Weeks?

[craigharmann]

Why would you move Escobar to 2nd for a year or so and then move him back to SS? That would not be developing his skills and he could come back at SS worse and it could take time for him to get back to where he was. I hate the notion of moving guys all around. It hinders development at whatever the final position is.

 

I don't know. There's been a few guys that have moved around and seemed to be OK. Initial guys who come to mind are Pujols, Miguel Cabrera, Braun. They moved positions as fairly young players, and it didn't seem to hurt them. Didn't Jose Reyes move to 2nd initially when he came to the majors? He started off moving to accommodate the great Kaz Matsui. Granted, Matsui wasn't good, so Reyes moved back, but it's not unheard of to do. I just wonder whether it would be a benefit to the team to do it defensively. Thankfully, I'm not the GM.

[Brawndo the Thirst Mutilat]

I disagree with the #2 thing -- I think once the Brewers ran Spivey out of town and put Weeks in the lineup -- that's when expectations went through the roof. I agree with the 2nd part of the statement though, he is below average overall with upside, and is cheap -- and the Brewers probably don't have an internal better option.

FtJ, you know we're boys and all, but I'm pretty sure Junior Spivey is quite available right now if you'd like him back.

 

People seem to hate Weeks because he was supposed to be a superstar, and he isn't (at least, not yet). I don't get it. I mean, I'm disappointed he hasn't hit better too, but that doesn't make it impossible (or even difficult) for me to see that a currently slightly below average starting 2B who is still cost-controlled for a few more seasons (3, right?) is actually a rather valuable player.

 

Disappointing does not equal bad, much less sufficiently bad as to warrant being thrown overboard (maybe keel-hauled is a better metaphor for they way some would seem to want to have it).

 

His defense has improved to livable-with, it's just that a rangy error-prone guy (Weeks) seems like a worse defender than a sure-handed statue (Durham) because it's easier to see his mistakes.

 

Throw in the fact that his IsoP and BB% make him a candidate for a huge breakout season if he ever figures out how to hit line drives again instead of popups (year to year LD%: 20.5%, 20.5%, 17.1%, 15.1%) and I just can't see why anyone would want to "give up" on him.

 

I'm still convinced that his breakout hitting season is coming next year or the year after that, and until it does, he just ain't killing the team like some around here seem to think.

[Brawndo the Thirst Mutilat]

(Tony Gwynn, Jr.) has a career .345 OBP in the minors, in 569 games and 2,500 plate appearances. That's not "small sample size" anymore.

 

Where is "rulzinski" to tell us what that would translate into, in the majors?

All the MLEs you could ever want, as well as minor league split data going back a number of years, can be found at Jeff Sackmann's wonderful http://www.minorleaguesplits.com/.

 

TGJ's MLE OBPs:

 

Last year: .296

Career: .313

 

TGJ's actual career OBP in about half a season's worth of PA: .300

 

Not only isn't he a viable leadoff hitter, he really isn't worth a roster spot in any capacity. We've already seen that it's difficult to find a manager who won't be tempted to use him as a PH in rather critical late game situations. You really shouldn't keep an OF on the roster just to be a pinch-runner and late game defensive replacement.

[JJHardy7]

I don't know. There's been a few guys that have moved around and seemed to be OK. Initial guys who come to mind are Pujols, Miguel Cabrera, Braun. They moved positions as fairly young players, and it didn't seem to hurt them. Didn't Jose Reyes move to 2nd initially when he came to the majors? He started off moving to accommodate the great Kaz Matsui. Granted, Matsui wasn't good, so Reyes moved back, but it's not unheard of to do. I just wonder whether it would be a benefit to the team to do it defensively. Thankfully, I'm not the GM.

 

Pujols, Cabrera, and Braun are all now playing 'less important' positions than a SS. Reyes is a decent comparison, but I've never thought Matsui was all that good and Hardy is in a different league and situation IMO. Escobar needs to at least see some AAA ball IMO and if that's true there's no way they'll move Hardy during the season should Escobar get called up.

 

I still think this entire Weeks debate has so many moving parts it's hard to really see what's going to happen. I think the Brewers will continue to be patient with Weeks until/if Taylor Green is ready at 2b. The main logjam in this discussion boils down to Hardy. He's set for a pretty big pay day and that decision IMO will weigh heavily on Weeks' future. If Gamel doesn't work at 3b and is moved, there's a huge hole there. Plug Hardy in there, put Escobar at SS, and Weeks could be on this team for a good portion of the future.

[danzig6767]

I sometimes wonder if Fielder's terrible defense adds to people wanting to get rid of Weeks. They see both guys butcher to many simple plays on the right side of the infield and frustration sets in. Then you mix in Weeks erratic hitting and many fans end up wanting him gone.

 

I also think players like Weeks draw the ire of fans more because his stretches of poor play can look just so ugly. The tons of strikeouts, particularly on sliders off the plate he can't seem to adjust to. All infielders make errors, but some of Weeks just are exasperating because they come on what look to be such simple plays. Not catching simple throws that hit his glove and he somehow drops it. Multiple terrible turns on the double play, even with no runner really bearing down on him. I like Weeks, but i can't lie, many times i screamed at the TV, what the hell are you doing Rickie!!! How did you manage to blow that simple play Rickie?? Uggg!!

 

Then to top it off, Weeks can look so gifted at other times, no player on the team frustrates me more than Weeks.

[TheCrew07]

There's no need to rush Escobar. I do find it interesting that some have complained about rushing Weeks up -- wouldn't this be the same thing for Escobar? AA to Bigs is a pretty big jump. Keep Escobar in AAA and he'll be up eventually in 2009 if there's an injury or he's flat out raking.

 

Escobar has been playing professional baseball since his teens, he's already logged 5 full years (1 short season and 4 full season) and 2141 ABs... Weeks had 1 full year of short season/A ball, 1 year at AA, a couple of months at AAA and now has a total of 771 minor league ABs.

 

Escobar and Weeks are in no way comparable, and Escobar continues to get better every year. Not that Rickie isn't/won't, but Escobar is more polished than people give him credit for. He's had plenty of time to grow at his own pace as he's just finishing up a second tour of AA during his 5th pro season, Weeks was pushed and I still believe calling him up when they did was unnecessary. Will AAA hurt Escobar? Not one bit, but he's nearing the end of the development cycle in the minors, and he did spend more than a year in AA (only getting better), so I have no doubt he could make the jump if a good deal came around for Hardy or Weeks

[JJHardy7]

Not one bit, but he's nearing the end of the development cycle in the minors, and he did spend more than a year in AA (only getting better), so I have no doubt he could make the jump if a good deal came around for Hardy or Weeks

 

I understand the differences with the players. I just think bumping a guy from AA to the bigs is the wrong move if the team wants to try and make the playoffs next year. A year ago there were several questions regarding Escobar's bat and now one year later those are all gone? If Hardy is moved, then maybe Escobar is the best option. I just think putting Hardy or Escobar at 2b is a mistake.

 

I guess I also wonder what are the expectations for Escobar? If Cameron, Kendall, Hall, and Weeks are in the same lineup as a young guy like Escobar that could be a horrible offense. I'd be much more at ease with it if we had more OBP guys and it'd be fine to hit Escobar 7th or 8th and whatever you get is a plus from the bat...I just think the offense needs to improve and not potentially take a step back while Escobar makes what I would consider an incredible jump from AA to the bigs. I agree TheCrew07 that Escobar is getting better. I just think the pitching Escobar faces in the bigs might lead him to struggle for a bit. Why not let him play in AAA and continue to develop?

 

Again, if Hardy is moved and some of the other moving parts work out I could possibly see Escobar at SS opening day. If Escobar isn't expected to do much, that's fine. If Escobar is playing with Cameron, Kendall, Hall, Weeks, and Hart (the way he finished the year), the offense could be pretty bad. I'd much rather ease Escobar to the bigs by letting him face AAA pitchers or bat in a lineup that doesn't have as many holes.

[TheCrew07]

I don't want to get into another circular debate with you, but I'll answer your question about expectations.

 

People that were skeptical of Escobar looked at his 2007 line and wondered if he could do it again, myself included. This year he literally blew last year's numbers out of the water, and he's starting to develop some power and could realistically be a 15ish HR guy when he's done filling out. He's made a believer out of me and I suspect many others. He's not a 5 tool stud, he's a 4 tool stud, but that's good enough for me.

[Brawndo the Thirst Mutilat]

Since we've seen how closely TGJ's MLEs match up with his actual MLB performance, maybe folks would be curious about Escobar's MLEs.

 

2007 -- 254 / 281 / 296

2008 -- 281 / 318 / 361

 

He'll only be 22 in December, and it should be expected that he's still improving. As for whether that makes it reasonable to expect something better than that 2008 MLE line if he is a regular next year...color me sceptical. I think his 2008 numbers were close to the top of the range of possible outcomes given his current true talent hitting ability. Given his lack of power and discipline, I don't think it is fair to expect him to come in and help the big league team with his bat in 2009.

 

I would put the following as a reasonable ceiling and floor for what to expect from Alcides in 2009 if he's at the big league level:

 

pessimistic -- 265 / 295 / 315

optimistic -- 290 / 325 / 370

 

If he is close to the bottom end of that, there is almost no way his glove can make up for his presence in the lineup every day. Even if he's the best SS in the majors with the glove, that wouldn't be good enough -- he'd have to be Ozzie Smith, i.e. a once-in-a-generation defender.

 

If, however, he is close to the optimistic projection, he'd be a real asset if he can save 15 - 25 runs more than an average SS with his glove, which might be within his capabilities.

 

So is he ready for the bigs or not? This is one of those really tough, close decisions that I think an intelligent GM could go either way on. Depends how much gamble you've got in you, and what the alternatives are.

[Fatter than Joey]

FtJ, you know we're boys and all, but I'm pretty sure Junior Spivey is quite available right now if you'd like him back.

 

My point regarding Spivey, was that at that point where Weeks replaced Spivey is when the expectations for Weeks went through the roof. While we traded Spivey for Ohka, when we needed pitching, it certainly did nothing but rise Weeks' stock. I don't think most fans recall that Weeks was a #2 draft pick -- unlike in the NBA and NFL where fans are more familiar with the draft.

 

I clearly said that Weeks was cheap, and we didn't have any better options, Spivey included.

 

Disappointing does not equal bad

 

Improved does not equal good either.

 

I'm still convinced that his breakout hitting season is coming next year or the year after that, and until it does, he just ain't killing the team like some around here seem to think.

 

His numbers are decreased across the board. I don't see a lot of ceiling. I never said he is killing the team, only he could certainly be improved on.

[Ennder]

I don't want to get into another circular debate with you, but I'll answer your question about expectations.

 

People that were skeptical of Escobar looked at his 2007 line and wondered if he could do it again, myself included. This year he literally blew last year's numbers out of the water, and he's starting to develop some power and could realistically be a 15ish HR guy when he's done filling out. He's made a believer out of me and I suspect many others. He's not a 5 tool stud, he's a 4 tool stud, but that's good enough for me.

Most of Escobar's stat line was built on an unsustainable BABIP though. He most likely is about Craig Counsell with the bat and a little bit better than Counsell defensively.

[southpaw121505]

I absolutely want him back, either at 2nd or in cf. He's much faster than Bill Hall so even if his instincts are the same as Hall's were out there, his pure speed would help him get to a number of balls.

 

I'd also prefer we had a different player more suited to leadoff, I'd like to give Weeks a chance to hit somewhere else. It might seem stupid to some, but if he feels pressure to get on or can't settle in batting leadoff then it is a factor. I'd love to see him bat 5th and play center. A fresh start

[TheCrew07]

Most of Escobar's stat line was built on an unsustainable BABIP though. He most likely is about Craig Counsell with the bat and a little bit better than Counsell defensively.

"unsustainable BABIP" might be my least favorite phrase that's tossed around baseball forums, like how rluz hates "big game pitcher". All a high BABIP really means to me is that a guy got hot and hit the crap out of the ball for an extended period of time. It may be luck in your opinion, that's fine, I just don't see it that way. Did I expect Gamel to hit .380 all year? No... but then I didn't expect Salome to hit .360 either for the season. Are either of their BABIP sustainable on a MLB level? Of course not. To me the point isn't their MLE or a BABIP that regresses to the mean, the point is that these kids have the ability to put the bat on the ball. All 3 kids have warts, there's no doubt, but they also have talent, and there is simply no way that Escobar tops out as Counsell with better defense. If you mean next year... then maybe? I don't expect him to come in and be a run producer, I would expect him to come in and hold his own and continue to raise up his game.

 

I'd be happy with a .270/.320/.400 line next year as batting 8th I think he'd pickup a couple of extra walks. If he spends all year in AAA I'd probably be looking for something better in 2010. He could use work in the plate discipline and power departments, but he's way too young to be nearing the top end of his offensive potential. Again in no way has Escobar been rushed, he's spent 5 full seasons in MiLB, he has more ABs in just AA (772) than Weeks does in his entire MiLB career (771) and he's starting to put it together in my opinion. Mass uses this statement all the time, but Alcides has done exactly what he's supposed to, he's made incremental gains each year with the exception of 2006.

[dlk9s]

Escobar has a .500 batting average in the bigs. That is more than twice as good as Weeks. Send Weeks down, bring Escobar up. It's as simple as that.

[Ennder]

there is simply no way that Escobar tops out as Counsell with better defense. If you mean next year... then maybe? I don't expect him to come in and be a run producer, I would expect him to come in and hold his own and continue to raise up his game.

 

Yeah I meant if he were to start at SS next year you are looking at Craig Counsell offense. He has more upside than that. As for BABIP you can't just ignore it, it is a real factor and you can look at it and realize that his stat line is inflated and most likely not repeatable. If he had the same stat line with a normal BABIP I'd be a lot higher on him but I realize that he isn't going to be able to reproduce that stat line year in and year out without improving first.

[JJHardy7]

This year he literally blew last year's numbers out of the water, and he's starting to develop some power and could realistically be a 15ish HR guy when he's done filling out. He's made a believer out of me and I suspect many others. He's not a 5 tool stud, he's a 4 tool stud, but that's good enough for me.

 

I agree with what you're saying. I question though when 'he's done filling out'. IMO unless he has a great off-season he's another year away. I hope people noticed the difference between most Brewers and guys like Gamel and Escobar. They're still young and have some room to grow which hopefully will increase their power.

 

I'd be happy with a .270/.320/.400 line next year as batting 8th I think he'd pickup a couple of extra walks.

 

If he hits like that, I'd be fine with it. I'm not trying to rip on Escobar. From what I've seen of him he's going to be a good player. I just think that line above is a little optimistic. I think .250/.300/.375 is more likely and that might be a bit much. TheCrew07 - I'm not trying to get in a circular debate with you. I enjoy your points. Do you think there's not a huge difference between AA and MLB pitching? And with the roster as it is now, where does Escobar hit? I'd imagine Kendall will be the 8th hitter next year.

[jhart05]

Gwynn Jr.'s skillset (contact hitter, speed) fit the role of a leadoff hitter. The problem is his skills aren't....well...good enough to be an everyday hitter, regardless of position. I'm willing to accept a leadoff guy who just gets on base for the heart of the lineup, but without a .360+ OBP, he needs to have a SLG that's at least comparable to OBP. (Even going that far, I'm pretty sure I'm in the minority.)

 

TGJ is good enough defensively to be a 5th OF / pinch runner, but isn't going to be a starter unless he turns into a .300 hitter, starts taking walks more often, or develops some extra-base pop. At this point, it's hard to expect any one of those things to happen.

 

That's just about exactly what I try to tell people I talk to, whenever I hear someone talking up TGJ. I really hope they trade him to the Padres this off season.

 

 

---------------------------------------------------------------------

 

 

Weeks: I still think he's going to be fine next year. He'll get back up to his career numbers and most likely improve on them. Just the way I feel.

 

Escobar: We have to remember, this kid will only be 22-years old when spring training rolls around next year. He needs a little more time in the minors. But he will be the Brewers SS in the near future, there is no doubt about that. He's not going to be moved anywhere, so might as well save your breath talking about moving him to 2B, because they're not going to do it.

 

Hardy: Will be the SS again next year. If he doesn't want to move to 3B for Escobar in a year or two, then you trade him. I would imagine they could get a pretty nice return in a Fielder/Hardy trade.

 

 

(edit: long line of "---------------------s" caused sideways scrolling --1992)

[SDOwen28]

I guess I am one of the few that gave up on Weeks half way through the year and I am 100% done with him. I know people will show numbers how he compares defensively at 2nd base, but those numbers are very misleading. One, on double plays he blew so many throws to first, which dont count as an error. Two, he never gets in front of the ball. He has plenty of time to move his feet and get around the ball but he tries to make a backhanded play and never touches the ball (aka Roger Dorn), which they never give him an error but if he moves his feet, he would field it. Three, there are so many gifts he gets by the home scorer. For offense, I know he has some potential, which he shows once every 20 games. Next year, ill keep him on the team, but not as the starter. Put someone else there, Escobar, Hardy, or who ever. Hopefully he can prove me worng but I dont ever see Rickie Weeks doing anything.

[homer]

By the same token, Prince doesn't do him any favors at first base.

[TheCrew07]

JJ.

 

I think AA is the top of the pyramid in the minor leagues. When you get to AAA it's mostly the same names from AA with minor league vets who know how to play the game. The pitching is another step up in AAA, but it's small, not like the jump from A ball to AA. Not to diminish the significance of the steps up from AA to AAA to MLB... it's just that I get pretty comfortable with a prospect when they excel at AA. Obviously the little things matter more as players move up and the relative talent level reaches MLB quality, but I'm not worried about Escobar making adjustments, he has gotten better pretty much every year. The one thing that really got me excited is that he improved statistically across the board, every single number is his line was better than last year's with the exception of his 3B (which is going move around, 3B are a function of luck in many cases) and SO total. Hits, 2B, HR, BB.... right down the line. I get why Ennder is questioning his high BABIP, I just don't think that's the primary indicator I would use in this case. He had 13 doubles in 2007... he had 24 this year, 1 Hr in 2007 and 8 this year... that's a power explosion in my opinion. I would like him to be more disciplined and walk more and SO less, but all in all there's great reason for optimism in my opinion.

[JJHardy7]

I would like him to be more disciplined and walk more and SO less, but all in all there's great reason for optimism in my opinion.

 

You make some good points TheCrew07. Are you worried about him in the lineup as it stands today though? I'm a little worried that his OBP was high because of his BA. Again, I think he'll be a very good player. I just don't know how he 'fits' in the lineup as it stands right now. If we move Hardy to 3B, dump Cameron (not that he's bad he's just a player that we already have similar bats -- his D is where he is different), and maybe re-sign Durham to provide a backup plan to Weeks, I think Escobar may fit in the role. I don't want to rush, but if we do put him in the bigs I want to be able to hit him 7th or so. I think this way if he hits that's gravy, but if he doesn't not much is expected. I would hate to see a lineup like this:

 

1b - Fielder

2b - Weeks

SS - Escobar

3b - Hardy

C - Kendall

LF - Braun

CF - Cameron

RF - Hart

 

I think depending on who is 'hot' or not and if Hart comes back you'd have Weeks, Escobar, Kendall, Cameron, and Hart that either don't hit well or are streaky (I'm assuming Escobar will struggle a bit making the jump so this isn't knocking his minor league career).

[mletto157]

JJ, You think that's worse that this year's Weeks, Hall, Kendall, Cameron, Hart?

[Ennder]

While I agree that moving from A to AA is a harder step than AA to AAA, it still is a significant step. There are plenty of hitters that excel at AA and fall flat in AAA and plenty that do well in AAA and fall flat in the minors. Escobar does not have a skillset that is going hold up in a AA to MLB transition most likely.

 

I would expect Escobar to be one of the worst hitters in baseball next season if he were thrust into the Majors. It would be even harsher than Hardy's rookie year. Sadly that might be an upgrade over Hall who was brutal though.

[sveumrules]

not sure if this was mentioned already in the thread, but rickie weeks did have a higher WPA than chase utley this year, 1.74 to 1.47.

that mark was sixth amongst second basemen and fourth amongst brewers.

[Gobias Industries]

What does WPA mean?

 

Outside of errors, I'd have to question any stat that has Weeks ahead of Utley.