What's your current plan and ETA for these guys?

[Hate those Rodents]

Gamel, Escobar, Salome, Gillespie, Cain, Green, Lucroy, Jeffress?

Here's mine

Gamel - I want him to get a fair shot at 3B, only competing with Hall/Branyan/Dillon. I don't want any salary added to this position until the brass feels he CAN'T play third and moves him to a corner outfield position or 1B. Plan is to be on the 25 man starting next year and either platooning or starting at 3B.

Escobar - Depends on Hardy. I think we can live with him in the majors next year, but I only bring him up if Hardy is dealt (and I don't advocate a position switch for Hardy). I am going to go ETA of 2010 for Escobar and pencil him in as the starter at SS in 2010 with Hardy being shipped away the following off season.

Salome - 2010 starting catcher. His bat is going to be top ten possibly for the position. Give him a full year at AAA to be hopefully at least average at catcher.

Gillespie - 2010 major league outfielder. Here's a guy I think that we develop at AAA for a full year and he hopefully shows he can be a very good corner outfielder. I think he's a lock to be on the 2010 25man roster, it's just a matter if he develops to the point where he's a guy we need to make room for as a starter right away or if he starts as a reserve.

Cain - 2010 major league outfielder. He'll need to continue to show great progress and develop more of his five tools, but he's a guy I think we are all hoping can be our CF of the future. I think there's a better chance he needs to start 2010 either at AAA or as a reserve than Gillespie, but a lot can happen in a year.

Green - Gamel gets first shot at third. If he can play decent enough defense, Green gets moved to second. If Gamel proves to the brass that he needs to be moved, Green stays at third. My ETA for Green is 2011. I'd like him to play both 2B and 3B this year at AA. I can easily see his ETA being 2010 if he progresses quickly and based on Gamel's position

Lucroy - 2011 backup catcher. It's hard to say if he can overtake Salome. At this point, we gotta expect Angel to end up getting more starts than Lucroy. I think Kendall and Rivera are gone in two years and we let these two take the reins at catcher (until Lawrie moves up to complicate matters).

Jeffress - 2010 starter. I think he starts the year at AA and moves up half way through. If he looks good, as we all mostly think he will or hope he will, then he is penciled in easily as a starter in 2010.

[Patrick425]

Escobar - Depends on Hardy. I think we can live with him in the majors next year, but I only bring him up if Hardy is dealt (and I don't advocate a position switch for Hardy). I am going to go ETA of 2010 for Escobar and pencil him in as the starter at SS in 2010 with Hardy being shipped away the following off season.

I'd rather trade Escobar than Hardy.

[piccione88]

Gamel: I think you have to give him another year at 3B. He made alot of progress this year defensivley, and he has the range to play third, where Braun did not obviously. If things dont work out at third next year, then I would move him to right field, where his bat could still be one of the best at the postion, and his athletic ability would not be wasted. To me he just does not have the power to be a top 10 player at first base, more of a Lyle Overbay type.

ETA: mid to late 2009

 

Escobar: I want him to be Milwaukee's starting shortsop to start next year, whether Hardy is here or not. Escobar will be able to put up a league average shortstop line in my opinion. With his defense that is all he will need to do in his first year. ETA:2009

 

Salome: Definatley needs another year to work out his defensive problems. ETA:mid to late 2010

 

Gillespie: Does not get the attention he deserves because of the depth that the Brewers have in the farm system. Gillespie is a very well rounded hitter, who takes walks at a very good rate, hits for a decent average, and has good pop. I think he will be a very good 4th outfielder to start 2010, and could be starting for us or another team not too far after that. ETA:late 2010, with a look in september next year.

 

Cain: I belive he is the future centerfielder for the Brewers. His ceiling is higher than any other Brewer in my opinion, as he is really the only 5 tool player that is close. I think he will be starting for us in 2010.

 

Green: He will be starting for someone at second base by 2011, hopefully he is a brewer still.

 

Jeffress: I do not think he will be a starter, as he has a tendency to get worn down quickly. His ceiling is so high though that obviously the Brewers have to give him every shot to increase his stamina because he could be a top of the rotation guy. I think that he will be closing for the Brewers though. The latest I think he comes up is 2011

[piccione88]

I could also see Gillespie moved though this off-season because of our depth.

[dadofandrew]

I see Salome, Escobar, and Gamel all starting, anything less would be a blow to the system. Alcides by '10 at the latest, Mat and Angel by '11. Cain's a ways off, but he might start. Green looks to start as a reserve, and hopefully develop into a starter. Ditto for Lucroy. Gillespie is 25 next year, I don't see him as a starter. Maybe a platoon guy at some point.

 

Jeffress has a ton of talent, if he stays healthy and out of trouble, he might well be up by mid '10. He might never make it. Pitchers are tough to judge.

[PlayerHader]

I see Salome, Escobar, and Salome all starting, anything less would be a blow to the system. Alcides by '10 at the latest, Mat and Angel by '11. Cain's a ways off, but he might start. Green looks to start as a reserve, and hopefully develop into a starter. Ditto for Lucroy. Gillespie is 25 next year, I don't see him as a starter. Maybe a platoon guy at some point.

 

Jeffress has a ton of talent, if he stays healthy and out of trouble, he might well be up by mid '10. He might never make it. Pitchers are tough to judge.

I'm high on Angel Salome as well, but I think he has enough work to do as a catcher before we consider starting him at another spot as well. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/laugh.gif

 

Alright. A lot of this depends on moves made in the offseason. If Prince is traded I could see Gamel moved over to 1B if his stick is ready. That could be Nelson's spot as well.

 

Assuming Prince and JJ both are back. I'd expect Gamel to head back to AAA to work on his D and continue progressing his approach at the plate. Ideally something clicks at 3B. I would like a decision to be made ASAP, though, whether the guy can stick there or not. I don't want to see him moved to OF his rookie season in the bigs. I'm gonna say he is able to become an average 3B and makes another appearance in Milwaukee in September and takes the spot for good in 2010.

 

Escobar intrigues me. I don't know what to think. They guy would have to hit .300 or better as a rookie to avoid being a black hole on offense. His BB rate and power just aren't their otherwise. He is supposed to be a great defender, but I'm not sure how many runs he'd save us over JJ. I think it is very important for a guy like him to spend a good chunk of time in AAA. I'd expect to see him there at least through early-June. Injuries could bring him up earlier. Hopefully the big club is doing fine and he can stay down and work on his plate discipline before another September call-up, as well.

[TheCrew07]

Gamel - 2010 regardless of position, my hunch is that he'll start at 3B which is why I don't see Hardy sliding over or a major move made for the team this off season

 

Salome - 2010 they need his bat, if his defense fails him Lucroy slides in here

 

Escobar - Assuming that Hardy isn't moved, he'll be up for good in some capacity mid 2009, he's going to hit, he's won me over

 

Green - The only thing holding him back is Gamel, 2010 for him, maybe mid season instead of spring training. I still hope he's Weeks replacement, yes X I know he doesn't have fantastic range. If Gamel fails at 3B Green would do nicely there, 2011 would be a worse case scenario I would think

 

Gillespie - Backup 4 OF type, 2010 or 2011 depending how the bottom of the roster shakes out. Again his lack of arm strength hurts him limiting him to LF (I am correct about the arm strength yes?), Gamel would be a better all around player if moved to the OF, he's not better than Braun, doesn't really fit in center... I see him as depth.

 

Cain - His tools are pretty exciting, and he's still rawish... if he takes off next year at AA with the bat he'd get a mid season bump to AAA (like this year), then it's plausible the Brewers would go right from Cameron to Cain in 2010. Either way 2011 would be a worse case scenario I think for him as well.

 

Jeffress - I would hope 2010 for him, if he can iron out his command and master his breaking stuff he could be dominant with his tools, but like Al said, he might never pitch a day in the majors. If he doesn't cut it as a starter, he will be in the back of the bullpen.

 

Lucroy - either he or Salome will be catching, if it's Salome I wouldn't mind Lucroy getting corner OF/IF time, or he could be moved for pitching. They wouldn't waste him as a reserve, they won't have 2 catchers on the roster that are starting caliber and PH 1 for 140 games. If both catchers make it, Lucroy will be moved to fill a hole elsewhere on the team or moved in a trade as catching is very valuable.

[dadofandrew]

I see Salome, Escobar, and Salome all starting

 

 

 

Heh, Salome at 3B might be very entertaining.

[JoeHova]

I still hope to see JJ moved to 2nd. It is a position of similar defensive value to shortstop, unlike 3rd base. I know people say he has too good of an arm to play there, but that argument doesn't make a lot of sense to me. You can't really have too good of an arm for a position, a better arm helps at every position, even 1st base.

 

So, I'm hoping for Escobar at short next year, with JJ at 2nd.

 

With Salome and Gamel, I hope they get better looks next September and then are starters at their current positions in 2010. If I'm honest with myself, I want Salome to win the job next year, but I think it would probably be better for him to work on his defense in AAA for (most of) a year. If Gamel can't stick at 3rd, I could see him playing a corner outfield spot in 2011 or being traded to the AL.

 

For Jeffress, I might be overly optimistic, but I'm hoping for a mid-season callup to the bullpen next season, being a swingman in 2010, and a full-time starter in 2011.

 

I'm hoping for Cain and Green to be ready in 2011 at CF and 3rd, respectively. 2nd would be better for Green, but they probably moved him for a reason. 2011 also for Lucroy.

 

As for Gillespie, I don't see much for him. The bat doesn't really stand out when you consider his age and position. He'll probably get a few shots at a roster spot, but I don't think a team will count on him as part of their core until he does something more spectacular at some point. Maybe he'll do that next year. His plate discipline looks great, but he seems like a Lyle Overbay type at best and Lyle's career minor league average was 55 points higher.

[dadofandrew]

Me and you are a group of 2 on the 2B move, Joe. I agree for the reasons you noted, and simply put, 3B hit more than 2B's. Moving JJ to a spot where he is slightly above average doesn't seem like a way of improving the team.

 

As for the arm, Rickie has made several great throws over the years, they are probably 4 of his 5 top plays...I recall an outstanding relay to 3B to get a runner and a play this year when he nabbed a runner at 2B on an overthrow at first or an error. A great arm plays anywhere, even 1B.

[JJHardy7]

Me and you are a group of 2 on the 2B move, Joe.

 

I will not join your group. A great arm can play positions where a great arm is needed. That being said the Brewers already have some holes on defense/offense. If they were stacked, I could see moving Hardy to 2b, but 3b is one of the most unknown positions on the team going forward.

 

I'll agree to disagree with your moving Hardy to 2b, but I have a question. Do you expect Hardy to accept the move as he's nearing free agency? Or do you overpay him to move to 2b?

[dadofandrew]

Depends how much JJ likes it in MIL. If you give him a long-term deal, explaining to him Escobar will be taking over at SS, he may accept it, or he may not.

 

If he wants to play SS, he will choose to be a FA in two years.

[billyhallfan]

i like the idea of jeffress being a closer, and that would probably be more effective than starting him...

[And That]

Jeffress won't be moved to closer until he shows himself too limited to be a starting pitcher, or gets injured a lot. I hope neither of those things happen. 200 innings is so much more important than 60-80 innings at the end of the game.

[TheCrew07]

I'm bored and was bouncing around just looking at random splits tonight and I stumbled across this for Mat Gamel. If that link brings up the Overall stats just click the Left/Right link to get his splits. I had no idea he hit LHP so well, even in his down years there's only a .030 point difference for his MiLB career he's actually hit LHP better.

 

I'd guess that will change when he gets to Milwaukee and faces specialists, but it's good to see. As I was curious about it I also looked up Taylor Green who also hit LHP better and Michael Brantley who was very close but came up short, but is still over .300 for his MiLB career.

 

edit. For all links you have to click on Career Stats, then the splits.

[rousieboy]

Weeks gone, JJ gone, Pena and Escobar 2009, Aguilar and Jeffress 2010 if all goes well...I would like to see Gamel moved and then fast-tracked along with TGreen and Lucroy. Salome I would like to trade for pitching...the sooner the better. I don't believe in his D and I would rather keep some other guys than trade them (right away) for pitching.

 

Gillespie...I just don't feel it...a poor man's CHart for me right now...Cain, not even in my discussion...Some tools but not on the radar.

[CheezWizHed]

Ok, this surprised me... I was looking at the splits that TheCrew07 pointed out and I saw that Green's BA was higher for lefties, but his LD% was much higher for righties(19.7 vs 13.6%). I would expect the LD% to track with BA (at least generally). But for the higher BA despite the lower LD% on lefties, I was surprised.

 

Would you assume that would mean he will eventually hit righties better, since he hits more line drives off of them?

[clancyphile]

Gamel: Probably plays 3B full-time at Nashville - but has a chance to win the job in Spring of `09. If he wins the job, signing Fielder to a long-term deal becomes mandatory. If not, he is the Opening Day starter at first in 2010, and Fielder is (regrettably) trade bait.

 

Escobar: Splits time between SS and 2B. If Weeks puts it all together, he takes Counsell's job. No way does he start over Hardy. Could replace Counsell Opening Day `09.

 

Salome: Full-time catcher at Nashville. Starter on Opening Day, 2010

 

Gillespie: Find out if he can play RF in either Huntsville or Nashville. If he can... great. If not, he will be stuck behind Braun. OK, I know I catch flak for saying move Braun back to third, but if Gillespie is really what he seems to be [a doubles hitter with VERY good speed - can you say, LEADOFF?], and he can only play left, then do the Brewers move Braun to right and Hart to center? Or does Hart get dealt? Ideas, anyone? Figure Gillespie either starts in left for the Crew in 2010, or is traded.

 

Cain: OK, he can play center, but his bat and speed are not as good as Gillespie's. On Opening Day 2010, he's probably taking a Brady Clark role for the Brewers.

 

Green: OK, now things get complicated. This guy is a left-handed Cirillo and natural #3 hitter. He will start somewhere on Opening Day 2010 - be it second, third, first (why not?), right, or left.

 

Lucroy: Probably trying to get past Salome for playing time - probably will have to settle for being a defensive replacement in late innings. He can hit, too, though... oh, my, catcher will be VERY interesting in 2010. But that will be a GOOD problem to have...

 

Jeffress: Probably the #4 or #5 starter in 2010. No need to make him the ace right away. Besides, one hopes the Brewers have Gallardo, Parra, and at least one of Sheets/Sabathia/Villanueva/Dillard/Bush/McClung ahead of him.

 

One other player I will add:

 

Chris Cody: I think this guy, acquired in 2007 for Jose Capellan, could be the mother of all pitching nuggets. Look at his 2008 season in Brevard County. OK, it's a pitcher's league, but this guy outdid Tim Dillard and Carlos Villanueva's major pwnage of FSL hitters from 2005 - and Dillard and Villanueva could be key contributors next year in the rotation or the pen nxt year (depending on how free agency shakes out). Dunno about anyone else, but he may be the biggest steal since the Brewers acquired Villanueva for Wayne Franklin and Leo Estrella in 2003. Figure he's the #5 starter in 2010 or 2011 at the latest.

[clancyphile]

Me and you are a group of 2 on the 2B move, Joe.

 

I will not join your group. A great arm can play positions where a great arm is needed. That being said the Brewers already have some holes on defense/offense. If they were stacked, I could see moving Hardy to 2b, but 3b is one of the most unknown positions on the team going forward.

 

I'll agree to disagree with your moving Hardy to 2b, but I have a question. Do you expect Hardy to accept the move as he's nearing free agency? Or do you overpay him to move to 2b?

Actually, I give him a ten-year deal ($5 million in 2009, $7 million in 2010, $10 million/year from 2011-2018) to play shortstop. I am NOT going to risk repeating the mistake the Brewers made after 2002 when they let Jose Hernandez walk after two very good years at SS (2001-2002) and replaced him with Royce Clayton (2003) and Craig Counsell (2004). If JJ is signed long-term, shortstop won't be broke.

 

If it ain't broke, don't fix it.

[TheCrew07]

Gillespie: Find out if he can play RF in either Huntsville or Nashville. If he can... great. If not, he will be stuck behind Braun. OK, I know I catch flak for saying move Braun back to third, but if Gillespie is really what he seems to be [a doubles hitter with VERY good speed - can you say, LEADOFF?], and he can only play left, then do the Brewers move Braun to right and Hart to center? Or does Hart get dealt? Ideas, anyone? Figure Gillespie either starts in left for the Crew in 2010, or is traded.

 

Cain: OK, he can play center, but his bat and speed are not as good as Gillespie's. On Opening Day 2010, he's probably taking a Brady Clark role for the Brewers.

Do have any linkage to support any of that? Gillespie has "VERY good speed? A guy who's stole just about the same number of bases every year in 18,16,17? Darren Ford he is not, and I'd venture a guess that there's no way he's faster than Cain who is one of the only 5 tool prospects in the system... Cain stole his fewest bases this season and easily eclipsed what Gillespie did. Gillespie's arm also will not play in RF, but Braun's will... so if it came down to it Cole could play LF with Braun in RF... that's assuming that Lucroy and Lawrie stay at catcher, Gamel stays in the IF and so on. Unfortunately for Cole he's always going to be the 4th or 5th best OF unless Melvin dumps 2 or 3 guys. He's more of a middle of the order hitter... 5th or 6th, than a lead off hitter in my opinion, if he were to start. Though he draws enough walks I'd consider him for a 2 hitter pending other options on the club at the time.

 

Cain was drafted out of highschool very as a very raw 5 tool prospect, Gillespie as a polished college hitter, comparing their career paths thus far seems like a disservice to the truth. Brady Clark? Clancy you have some very different opinions... but that's out there even for you. Cain way too talented to be compared to Clark... my goodness. While Lo may flame out and never reach the majors, his ceiling is not Clarkesque. I'm not sure that Cain will ever be a great OBP guy, probably mid 300s someplace but he's someone I'm still very excited about.

[clancyphile]

Gillespie: Find out if he can play RF in either Huntsville or Nashville. If he can... great. If not, he will be stuck behind Braun. OK, I know I catch flak for saying move Braun back to third, but if Gillespie is really what he seems to be [a doubles hitter with VERY good speed - can you say, LEADOFF?], and he can only play left, then do the Brewers move Braun to right and Hart to center? Or does Hart get dealt? Ideas, anyone? Figure Gillespie either starts in left for the Crew in 2010, or is traded.

 

Cain: OK, he can play center, but his bat and speed are not as good as Gillespie's. On Opening Day 2010, he's probably taking a Brady Clark role for the Brewers.

Do have any linkage to support any of that? Gillespie has "VERY good speed? A guy who's stole just about the same number of bases every year in 18,16,17? Darren Ford he is not, and I'd venture a guess that there's no way he's faster than Cain who is one of the only 5 tool prospects in the system... Cain stole his fewest bases this season and easily eclipsed what Gillespie did. Gillespie's arm also will not play in RF, but Braun's will... so if it came down to it Cole could play LF with Braun in RF... that's assuming that Lucroy and Lawrie stay at catcher, Gamel stays in the IF and so on. Unfortunately for Cole he's always going to be the 4th or 5th best OF unless Melvin dumps 2 or 3 guys. He's more of a middle of the order hitter... 5th or 6th, than a lead off hitter in my opinion, if he were to start. Though he draws enough walks I'd consider him for a 2 hitter pending other options on the club at the time.

 

Cain was drafted out of highschool very as a very raw 5 tool prospect, Gillespie as a polished college hitter, comparing their career paths thus far seems like a disservice to the truth. Brady Clark? Clancy you have some very different opinions... but that's out there even for you. Cain way too talented to be compared to Clark... my goodness. While Lo may flame out and never reach the majors, his ceiling is not Clarkesque. I'm not sure that Cain will ever be a great OBP guy, probably mid 300s someplace but he's someone I'm still very excited about.

Gillespie's SB %: Career: 80%, 2008: 94%, 2007: 67%, 2006: 82%

Cain's SB %: Career: 77%, 2008: 80.6%, 2007: 73%, 2006: 76%, 2005: 80%

 

Gillespie's been more successful over his career save for 2007, and even then, 73%'s kinda low.

 

Gillespie also drew more walks, and has a far better walk rate and fewer strikeouts in . More doubles and homers than Cain, fewer triples, but more XBH overall. Cain's only advantage is being able to play all three positions, whereas Gillespie's limited to left field.

 

At this point, I have to rate Gillespie higher than Cain. He's only one spot down in the Power 50 (10 vs. 9, which could easily be flipped).

 

Cain's not bad, but Gillespie's better, and more importantly, he's stronger where the Brewers have been realtively weak in 2008, specifically in the areas of OBP and walk rate.

[TheCrew07]

I don't see what CS% has to do with raw speed, Gillespie just picks his spots better... Gillespie had similar percentage to Ford in 2006 and blew him away this year... Ford is still one of the fastest guys in all of professional baseball while Gillespie is not.

 

Cain's rawness has been well documented in various feature articles Mass has linked to. Gillespie was polished when drafted, and has been steady yet unspectacular his entire career, what you see is what you get from him. Cain is a true 5 tool prospect who's still learning how to play the game and his upside far beyond Gillespie's. Will Cain ever have the plate discipline of Gillespie? I doubt it... but will Braun ever walk as much as Gabe Gross per PA? Which player would you rather have?

[piccione88]

Its not that Hardy has "too good" of an arm to play second base. It is just that his arm strength, and skill set would be better utilized at third base. His range is not the greatest either, but he has a great glove, and can throw the ball very hard, and very accuratley. That too me has third base written all over it.

 

Just to be clear though, I belive if the brewers can get a third baseman, it is a better idea to trade Hardy, because of the weak shortstop market.

[clancyphile]

I don't see what CS% has to do with raw speed, Gillespie just picks his spots better... Gillespie had similar percentage to Ford in 2006 and blew him away this year... Ford is still one of the fastest guys in all of professional baseball while Gillespie is not.

 

Cain's rawness has been well documented in various feature articles Mass has linked to. Gillespie was polished when drafted, and has been steady yet unspectacular his entire career, what you see is what you get from him. Cain is a true 5 tool prospect who's still learning how to play the game and his upside far beyond Gillespie's. Will Cain ever have the plate discipline of Gillespie? I doubt it... but will Braun ever walk as much as Gabe Gross per PA? Which player would you rather have?

Between Cain and Gillespie? Given the way the Brewers are presently constructed, and with their relative weaknesses, I would rather have Gillespie.

[TheCrew07]

I realize as a site we're on an OBP kick, but who's better today in this moment in time is not necessarily the same as who will be better in 2010 or 2011.

 

I wasn't asking you about Cain vs Gillespie, I was asking you about Braun vs Gross. You have a huge a ceiling guy vs a solid/steady yet unspectacular player. I think the team needs both kind of players, but Gillespie doesn't scream starter to me anymore than Gross did. Gillespie could be a great bench player, in that I have no doubt. Again I'm not going out on a limb on Cain until after next year, but I feel good about him, and I also think that Gillespie will have a nice career as well.