How Much Did 2007 Affect Our 2008 Playoff Performance?

[Prince James]

Whew, now that the season is over I can get back to theorizing and second guessing on BF.net. I don't post much here during the season, leaving all that fun for the off-season when I miss the Brewers. It really helps me get through the winter. I probably am not the only one who views/contributes to this site more in the off-season than during the regular season.

Anyways, I was just thinking back to how angry I was in 2007 when we tanked and missed the playoffs. I wasn't certain we would have the chance any time soon again. However, fate smiled on us and we made it in 2008, but we were still playoff "inexperienced". I truly believe that if we had made the playoffs in 07, this team would have performed better in the 08 post-season. Not that we would have necessarily made it to the next round, but I think the team would have put its best foot forward at least and made the Phillies truly beat them.

How much weight do the rest of you on this site place on playoff experience? (I am especially curious with our so-called "experienced" SP playing like junk yesterday). My only wish is that we make it back in 2009 to test this hypothesis.

[trwi7]

Pretty much none. Our inexperienced guys last year (Braun, Fielder, Gallardo, Villanueva, Hart, Weeks, Hardy etc.) carried that team down the stretch. It was the veterans that didn't do anything to contribute (Jenkins, Hall, Estrada, Bush, Sheets etc.)

 

This year, our young guys with the "experience of last year" tanked on offense in September almost costing us a playoff spot and then not hitting in the playoffs.

[pitchleague]

I would venture a guess that if the Crew makes the playoffs in 2009 they'll be a little more "ready" for the experience. But it's not something you can really quantify and put statistics to. A lot of the post-season is also luck (just like the regular season) with some experience, talent, and "intangibles" thrown into the pot.

 

The Phillies from last year were a good example. Not many of them had playoff experience in 2007. They made it and got swept out by a white-hot Rockies team. Was Colorado really that much better? I don't know--were the Dodgers that much better than the Cubs this year? But the Phillies took the bitter sweep pill and swallowed hard, came back this year, played well, made the post-season again (with grateful thanks to the Mets for the second consecutive year), and this time were able to win a series. Who knows how they'll do against the Dodgers, though?

 

The Brewers could be in the same boat next year. Or the Brewers could be like the 2007 Indians and fall completely apart next season. Time will tell. I'll enjoy the ride regardless.

[owbc]

I'm confident that it's a negligible effect, kind of like the way I feel with clutch hitting.

 

The Brewers' flaws were emphasized in September and October, especially when they played the Mets and Phillies, where we couldn't get away with our weaknesses like we did against inferior teams like the Pirates. The same could be said for the Cubs series in July. Compounding this was a widespread offensive slump during September, where Braun and Hart performed significantly worse than their season averages. Pitching didn't go much better, as Torres, Parra, and Suppan slumped while Sheets got injured.

 

Honestly, I still can't believe they pulled it out in the final week and made the playoffs. The offense wasn't that much better in the final week, but it came through at the right times. As is typical with the Brewers, it was timely home runs by Fielder, Braun, and Weeks that sent the Brewers over the top.

 

I don't see how any of this changed in the NLDS. The offense was still slumping and pressing, just like the regular season. The pitching was still carrying the team, just like the regular season. The bullpen actually performed far better than the regular season.

 

Did the Phillies benefit this year from added playoff experience? Perhaps, as evidenced by Cole Hamels' improved performance. However, the real reason the Phillies improved this year is because they didn't have to play the unbelievably hot Colorado Rockies in the first round. Instead, they matched up with the slumping Brewers. What about the Cubs? How much did all that playoff experience help them? If anything, their added experience hurt them, as extremely high expectations were placed on them to improve from the previous year. If the Brewers make the playoffs next year, much better results will be expected and the pressure level will go up.

 

The advantage that I can think of is that the quick playoff exit has created awareness of the Brewers' major flaws such as their overagressiveness and dependance on the home run. These were not specific to the playoffs, but if the Brewers learn from them, they will do better next time, which will hopefully be sooner than 26 years from now.

[TSack27]

I don't believe there was any 2007 carryover. I thought the Brewers performance in the playoffs was a carryover from the month of September.

[Ennder]

The Rays were a last place team last year and they are headed for the divisional series with no experience. Basically the playoffs come down to which team gets hot and which team is the healthiest more than anything.

[Fatter than Joey]

I don't believe there was any 2007 carryover.

 

I think the one thing that did "carryover" was Yost's firing. I am sure the 2007 tankjob was the #1 reason for firing Yost as they did in 2008.

 

A healthy Sheets and perhaps we split in Philly in games 1&2, and save CC for game 3. I think we limped into the playoffs weakly, and got handled in the same manner.

 

2008 gives us something to build on for sure.