Brewers-Tigers-Rays Trade Proposal

[HF29]

The Tigers' need for a SS has been well-documented as has the Brewers' need for a legitimate front-of-the-rotation SP (assuming both Sabathia and Sheets leave this winter). Though the two teams don't match up well, I think you could work something out if you include the Rays. Thus my proposal:

 

The Tigers trade Magglio Ordonez and cash (say $6MM per year) to the Rays.

The Rays trade Matt Garza to the Brewers.

The Brewers ship J.J. Hardy to the Tigers

 

How this trade affects the teams:

 

As stated above, the Tigers desperately need a SS and will also likely be looking to cut some payroll from $139MM (2nd highest in baseball in 2008). Though they would be giving the Rays a total of $18MM over the next three seasons, they would still be saving $36MM over that time (assuming Ordonez' approximate $18MM options for 2010 and 2011 kick in). In Hardy, Detroit would be acquiring a young, top-tier SS still two years away from free agency.

 

The Rays have Carl Crawford hitting 5th in the ALDS. With all due respect to Crawford, Tampa Bay needs a little more juice to protect young slugger Evan Longoria. Though Ordonez would cost the Rays an extra $12MM per year, it's important to realize that they should receive a substantial attendance/revenue bump in 2009 (1st-time playoff teams commonly enjoy a spike in attendance one year after qualifying for the postseason). Therefore, the Rays should have no problem absorbing the incremental cost. Away from the pitcher's haven that is Comerica Park, don't be surprised in Ordonez puts up .300/.400/.550 numbers.

 

Though the Rays would be giving up an electric arm in Garza, let's look at their pitching depth for a minute. They already have Scott Kazmir, James Shields, Andy Sonnenstine and Edwin Jackson at the big league level and David Price, Jeff Niemann, Wade Davis and Jeremy Hellickson closing in quickly. In other words, as good as Garza might become, replacing him shouldn't be a problem.

 

The benefit for the Brewers in obvious. Phenom Alcides Escobar should in time be a solid replacement for Hardy, and in Garza they could very well be getting a young John Smoltz. A front three of Garza, Yovanni Gallardo and Manny Parra should keep the Brewers in contention for years.

[piccione88]

I would love the deal, but I am not so sure the Rays would like it. Even with the 6 million going the rays way 35 year old Ordonez would cost them 12 million, which would make him their highest paid player. The rays do have alot of depth, but starting pitching is at a premium, so they could probably get a player that is close to Ordonez in production, at a younger age, and less money.

 

If the Brewers move Hardy I think the return is more along the lines of Blackburn plus a mid level prospect. Or a Huston Street if they go bullpen. Too bad the Tigers do not have the pitching to pull off a deal with us straight up.

[TheCrew07]

The Rays just acquired Garza from the Twins last off season, I like the idea of a 3 way deal, but I don't think he'd be the one to go. Teams don't usually flip the same guy, but it could happen.

 

I would think Blackburn + would be the lower end of the scale for JJ, he's an all-star and up near the top in every single statistical category for SS, not just in the NL, but league wide. I know people get caught up in his lost step and all that other nonsense but he's very good player and he's still cheap. A good offensive SS with very solid D...there just aren't many of them around, and if Escobar wasn't knocking on the door JJ would be untouchable in my opinion.

[HF29]

As a Brewers' fan (which I'm not -- I'm a die-hard Tigers' fan) I would need substantially more than Balckburn and a mid-level prospect if I was going to trade Hardy -- a 26-year-old above average defensive SS who could very well post an OPS in excess of .850 next season and still has two years before free agency. I would want talent more along the lines of a Garza/Zack Greinke/Chad Billingsley/Mike Pelfrey/Matt Cain/Scott Baker...i.e. a young, hard thrower who has displayed durability and some amount of sustained success at the big league level. And a guy who's at least two years from free agency. This may seem like a steep price, but then again if you look at the shortstops available this offseason (Julio Lugo, Jack Wilson, Orlando Cabrera), it's evident Hardy is far better and far more cost efficient than all of them.

[piccione88]

I am higher than Blackburn than most people so maybe that was not the best example to use. The point I was trying to get across is that the Brewers will not get young top of the rotation starters for Hardy. In my opinion Hardy will fetch either a couple very good young pitching prospects along the lines of Mazzaro, a good young #3 type starter, or a shutdown closer.

 

Shortstops are in high demand, but starting pitching, esspecially young good starting pitching is in even higher demand.

[HF29]

Maybe I'm just too bullish on Hardy (and probably a little too bearish on Blackburn). But let's think of it in these terms -- If you were starting a big league team tomorrow what shortstops would you select in front of Hardy? Definitely Hanley Ramirez and Jose Reyes and maybe Stephen Drew. I can't think of any others.

 

And I agree with you that a huge premium is placed on good young pitching. But in this post-steroid, post-HGH and post-amphetimine world, almost as much of a premium is placed on young, first-tier positional talent. Just look at how quickly you guys locked up Ryan Braun. Or the Rays signed Evan Longoria....That said, I'd have to think if Doug Melvin trades away J.J. Hardy it would be in exchange for a young pitcher with ace potential.

[Cadillac4274]

Justin Verlander could be a buy low guy after his season this year. I heard that he may be on the table for JJ Hardy and another piece

[piccione88]

Do you have a link to the Verlander rumor. I just cant imagine the Tigers who are in desperate need of pitching giving up Verlander for Hardy. To me Verlander is the only guy on the team with ace stuff. That would be a steal for the Brewers even with Verlander's poor 2008.

[TheCrew07]

Trading Verlander makes sense the same way trading Fielder or Hardy makes sense instead of letting them walk in Arby. In addition the Verlander deal makes sense for the Tigers because he's only under contract for 2009 and Porcello is already 2 years into his MLB deal and needs to break through, they only have team options through 2012 on him.Getting Which makes me wonder why anyone would be dumb enough to sign a pitcher to a MLB contract to get them signed? If you have to get him signed using a MLB contract (deadline type deal), why not go more years because you know he'll spend at least 1 and maybe as many 3 years in minors? Back to Verlander, because he's only under contract through 2009, I wouldn't want the Brewers to acquire him using Hardy or Fielder... he'd be a great stop gap in the rotation but I don't see acquiring him without giving up pitching. Unfortunately for the Tigers, the only top pitching prospect that pitched well in the organization was Porcello, so they'll need pitching help coming back. As I said in the other thread I really liked Detroit's SP depth coming into the season, but Rogers was poor, Willis was horrid, Bonderman got hurt, Robertson didn't turn the corner, and they had to pickup Garcia who hasn't pitched well in a couple of years. I don't think Rogers and Garcia will be back, and Miner and Galarraga did pitch well, so they still have some limited depth. I would really like to see Willis turn his career back around as well, I always liked him.