The Dead(weight) List

[endaround]

So you want to trade Jeff Suppan or Bill Hall this offseason? Wondering what kind of refuse you can get in return? Here's my attempt to list some of the bad contracts around the league that are available for the right sucker, er team, to claim. Feel free to bring up any you think I might have missed.

 

Angels

Assuming we can't put Tori Hunter here quite yet:

 

Gary Matthews Jr. $10m per year 2009-2011 .242/.319/.357 in 2008. In one of the least surprising happenings ever, Sarge looks to be a really bad signing. He is under contract for his age 34-36 seasons.

 

Astros

Ignoring the aging Carlos Lee:

 

Miquel Tejeda $13m in 2009 .283/.314/.415 in 2008 Since there is just one year left, he isn't terrible and is playing for a team use to paying huge amounts to bad players he likely stays put.

 

A's

 

Eric Chavez $11m in 2009 and $12m in 2010. Basically a DNP in 2008 (95 PAs, .247/.295/.393) in 2007 .240/.306/.440. Well he plays 3B!

 

Bobby Crosby $5.25m in 2009 .237/.296/.349 in 2008. My guess is the A's ride the salary out.

 

Blue Jays

Things start to get interesting:

 

Scott Rolen $11m in 2009 and $11m in 2010. .262/.349/.431 in 2008. Big thing was only 454 PAs. He was about average but only for 2/3 a season. The Jays might be sick of dealng with a constantly injured 3B

 

Vernon Wells $1.5m in 2009, $12.5m in 2010, $23m in 2011, $21m in 2012-2014 plus signing bonus payments of $8.5m in 2009 & 2010. .300/.343/.496 in 2008. Wells had a good year. Problem is it wasn't $20m a year good. Not really an option for the Brewers, but since he has full no trade clause anyway let's move on.

 

Lyle Overbay $7m in 2009-2010 .270/.358/.419 in 2008. Overbay is carrying a sub-800 OPS at 1B.

 

Cubs

 

Alfonao Soriano $16m in 2009 $18m in 2010-2014 .280/.344/.532 in 2008. The Cubs don't likely see it yet but paying Soriano $18m per for age 35-38 is bad. Not really a Brewer thing to go for.

 

Koskie Fukudome $11.5m in 2009 $13m in 2010. $13.5m in 2011. .257/.359/.379 in 2008. Yes I just like putting this here (Remember the projections of a 900 OPS?). He has a full no trade so not going anywhere except maybe Seattle.

 

DiamondBacks

 

Eric Byrnes $11m in 2009-2010. Byrnes got a big contract after having a semi-decent year in 2007 (813 OPS playing LF) This year he was injured and when he played he hit .209/.272/.369. He hasn't played CF really since 2006 and his bat doesn't really fit in a corner position (Career .263/.325/.446)

 

Chad Tracy $4.75m in 2009 plus $1m buyout of $7m 2010 option. Not sure how he projects in the field anymore. He hit .267/.308/.414 in 289 PAs. Arizona would likely nearly give him away but would ride out the contract otherwise. Not a bad target for a platoon if he can still handle 3B.

 

Doubt the DBacks are willing to give up on Chris Young just yet, but why you give a guy with a sub 300 OBP a 5 year deal paying 7 figures at the end is beyond me.

 

Dodgers

 

Andruw Jones $15m in 2009 plus $2.1m signing bonus in 2009 and $5m in 2010. .158/.256/.249 in 2008. Umm, well, he may be injured most of the time so you get some insurance money back? He could run into visa issues? Since he's the same size as Prince you can save on uniforms?

 

Jason Schmidt $12m in 2009 + prorated signing bonus through 2011. DNP in 2008. 25.2 innings pitched in the last two years. Full no trade clause.

 

Juan Pierre $10m in 2009-2010, $8.5m in 2010. .283/.327/.328 in 2008. Another bad contract that everybody thought was going to be bad.

 

Giants

 

Barry Zito $18.5m 2009-2011, $19m in 2012, $20m in 2013, $18m in 2014 or $7m buyout. 5.15 ERA in 2008. Speaking of contracts people predicted would go bad...

 

Dave Roberts $6.5m in 2009. .224/.341/.280 in 2008 in 127 PAs. Not Zito bad but $6.5m for a 5th OFer is bad.

 

Aaron Rowand is in the toss up category here...

 

Indians

 

Travis Hafner $11.5m 2009-2010, $13m 2011-2012, $2.75m buyout or $13m in 2013. .197/.305/.323 in 2008 Krunk has shrunk. His injury fileld 2008 followed a 836 OPS in 2007. His disappearance explains a lot of why the Indians are winning as much as expected.

 

David Dellucci $4m in 2009. .238/.307/.405 in 2008. This comes after a 678 OPS in 2007. Everyone's favorite left handed platoon player looks like he's done.

 

Rafeal Betancourt $3.35 m in 2009. not really sure he belongs here, but a 5.07 ERA (4.40 FIP) in 2008 might make the team dump him On the other hand he had a 1.47 ERA in 2007 so $3.35m seems like a decent gamble to most teams.

 

Mariners

 

Carlos Silva $11m in 2009, $11.5m in 2010-2011, $12m mutual option in 2012. 6.46 ERA in 2008. This is near Zito bad.

 

Jarrod Washburn $10.35m in 2009. 4.69 ERA in 153.2 innings. FIP of 4.72. The Mariners had a chance to dump his salary to the Yankees in August and passed because they wnat prospects.

 

Miquel Batista $9m in 2009 6.26 ERA in 2008 in 126 innings. Batista is goign to be 38 next season and looks to have hit the wall.

 

Kenji Johim $24m over 2009-2011 .227/.277/.332 in 2008. Ok like Ichiro he isn't going anywhere...

 

Add to this Richie Sexson and Jose Vidro and you get an idea why the Mariners are so bad...

 

Mets

 

Luis Castillo $6m 2009-2011 .245/.355/.305 in 2008. He ended the season platooning with Damion Easley. Like I said elsewhere, 2B is a huge hole for the Mets. Castillo just hasn't been the same since his injury.

 

Nationals

 

Austin Kearns $8m in 2009 plus $1m buyout of 2010. .217/.311/.316 in 2008. Kearns just never seemed to recover to what he was earlier in his career.

 

You can make a case for adding Nick Johnson or Dmitri Young here...

 

Padres

 

Kahil Greene $6.5m in 2009. .213/.260/.339 in 2008. San Diego will likely just hope for a turn around but his career OBP is .304. If you're not catching that just isn't good.

 

Phillies

 

Adam Eaton $8.5m in 2009, $10m mutual option in 2010. 5.80 ERA in 2008. 5.29 FIP.

 

Geoff Jenkins $6.75m in 2009, $7.25m mutual option in 2010 with $1.25m buyout. Jenkins hit .246/.301/.392 in a platoon role this season.

 

Pirates

 

Jack Wilson $7.25m in 2009 plus $0.6m buyout of 2010 option. .272/.312/.348 in 2008. Pirates are unlikely to take any salary back and hope for an injury to someone at sometime.

 

Freddie Sanchez $6.1m in 2009 plus $0.6m buyout of 2010 option. .271/.298/.371 in 2008. As above.

 

Rangers

 

Kevin Millwood $11m in 2009 plus $12m in 2010 with 180 IP in 2009. 5.07 ERA in 2008. 4.02 FIP. So his results are due in large part to a BABIP of .366 compared to a career level of .308. So we might have a guy here who you can expect to improve over two seasons of 5 ERA pitching.

 

Vincente Padilla $12m in 2009 plus $1.75m buyout of 2010. 4.74 ERA in 2008. 5.03 FIP. So he is the opposite of Millwood, he's likely to match his 5 ERA of 2007.

 

Frank Catalanatto $4m in 2009 plus $2m buyout of 2010. .274/.342/.399 in 2008. $6m is al ot for a 35 year old platoon 1B who can't slug over 400 in Arlington.

 

Joaquim Benoit $3.5m in 2009. 5.00 ERA in 45 IP in 2008. 5.29 FIP. Might just be injury related.

 

Red Sox

 

Julio Lugo $9m in 2009-2010, vesting option of $9m in 2011 based on PAs. Hit .268/.355/.330 last season which was an actual improvement over 2007. Missed most of the season with injury.

 

Royals

 

Jose Guillen. $12m in 2009-2010. .264/.300/.438 in 2008. Another of those signings that had sirens blazing. But it sure showed the Royals were serious!

 

Tigers

 

Gary Sheffield. $14m in 2009 plus $4m deferred signing bonus. .225/.326/.400 in 2008. The Sheffield coming home party starts now!

 

Dontrelle Willis $10m in 2009, $12m in 2010. 9.38 ERA in 2008. 4.45 ERA in AAA in 2008.

 

Brandon Inge $6.3m in 2009, $6.6m in 2010. .205/.303/.369 in 2008. Well he can catch!

 

Nate Robertson $7m in 2009, $10m in 2010. 6.35 ERA in 2008. 4.99 FIP. Career FIP of 4.75. He's not 6 ERA bad, he's 5 ERA bad!

 

Twins

 

Micheal Cudyear $6.75m in 2009, $8.5m in 2010, $10.5m option in 2011 with $1m buyout. .249/.330/.369 in 2008. Maybe its fully injury related but with Young, Kubel and Span seeming to pass him by not sure if the Twins will take that chance.

 

White Sox

 

Paul Konerko $12m in 2009-2010. Hit .240/.344/.438 in 2008. Not a true dump but $12m 1B don't have a sub 800 OPS.

 

Yankees

 

Robinson Cano $6m in 2009, $9m in 2010, $10m in 2011, $14m in 2012 with $2m buyout, $15m in 2013 with $2m buyout. hit .271/.305/.410 this year. If Cano reverts back his contract is no problem, but who knows if Hank Steinbrenner is that patient? Since a good deal of Cano's earlier success is BABIP related who knows what his true level is.

[sbrylski]

Nationals

 

Austin Kearns $8m in 2009 plus $1m buyout of 2010. .217/.311/.316 in 2008. Kearns just never seemed to recover to what he was earlier in his career.

 

You can make a case for adding Nick Johnson or Dmitri Young here...

 

Two things:

 

I was a big Austin Kearns guy last offseason, and I'll still defend him. His BABIP was 50 points down this season despite improving his LD% by a percent, as well as a tick higher GB%. His BB% stayed consistent, his K% stayed lower than it had been earlier in his career, and he swung at less pitches outside the zone. He only got 357 PAs, so he surely is a very strong candidate to bounce back next season to a .260 / .360 type player. Sure he's RHed, but if he can be had cheap due to his contract, he's a textbook buy low candidate. I might go as far as declining Cameron's option and trading for Kearns, sliding one of our corner guys to center.

 

And second, Nick Johnson would be a great guy to bring in to replace Fielder if he's traded for pitching. We'd actually improve team OBP. Of course, we need to have a backup option in place due to Johnson's injury problems. The Nats have already said they plan on bringing in a new 1B this offseason.

[Hate those Rodents]

That's an awesome list that should get some discussion going. Unfortunately, I think it's in the best interest of a team like Milwaukee to build the offense through our current young guys improving (Braun, Fielder, Hardy, Hart, Weeks, even Gwynn) and infusing Gamel, Escober, Salome, Gillespie if the vets (Kendall, Cameron, Hall, Branyan, Durham) don't maintain or improve.

 

Pitching is where we can add salary and look outside imho. Names that jumped out to me included Willis (did great in NL), Padilla (Melvin likes him and likes trading with Tex), and Washburn (I think we could swap them Suppan and a marginal prospect).

[JohnBriggs12]

I'd swap Suppan for Byrnes if I could. To me Byrnes' downside is potentially less devasting than Suppan's. Plus I think it's easier to imagine him being a positive contributor than it is Suppan. I think Suppan's best days are clearly behind him.

 

All of these guys are risky, but Byrnes is just one year away from his career year, and he has a history of rebounding. He's likely to be at least as productive as Cameron. He's also 3 years younger and doesn't strike out as much. Yeah, he hasn't played CF since 06, but he was moved to make room for Young who is a stud out there. Byrnes is adequate at best, but who else to the Brewers have if they don't overpay Cameron?

[colbyjack]

Thanks for providing that endaround. If that list doesn't make people think twice before they sign just about anyone to a long-term deal, I don't know what would.

 

Kevin Millwood interests me on that list given the reasons you offered to think he could be better if his career numbers drop back down, not to mention it wouldn't hurt getting out of that stadium and into the NL. I've got to imagine though that the Rangers would be scared to death at how bad Jeff Suppan could be pitching in their stadium, and at least the team can void out of Millwood's contract after next year if he doesn't toss 180 innings.

 

I'm guessing we're going to hear Washburn's names quite a bit this offseason given the local connection, even if the Brewers and Mariners never discuss a possible trade.

[reillymcshane]

Thanks for providing that endaround. If that list doesn't make people think twice before they sign just about anyone to a long-term deal, I don't know what would.

This is exactly right - and not just for free agents - but your own players. Long term deals are risky - big money that you can't get out of. Simply look at the Brewers signings (FA and internal) over the past few years, and it's not a resounding success:

 

Ryan Braun (signed after less than a year, but so far, so good)

Bill Hall - bet we'd like his $6.8 million he's due next year for something else

Dave Riske - dud, so far, due to injury

Dave Kendall - been decent so far - only a two year deal, so not a lot of risk

Damien Miller - midling results

Wes Helms - not big bucks, but enough to get booed out of town

Jeff Suppan - lot of money for a back end of the rotation. Iffy at the time, looking like a bad move now as we owe $25 million over next two years

Mike Cameron - solid year one for $5 million. We'll see if they pick up for more.

Brady Clark - nothing much in return but some grit and Elmer Dessens

 

On the whole, not great. Best results seem to be sticking to shorter deals - but even then, those are hit and miss. Best thing is to focus on the draft, and sign role players as needed, but try and avoid big signings.

[endaround]

I'd swap Suppan for Byrnes if I could. To me Byrnes' downside is potentially less devasting than Suppan's. Plus I think it's easier to imagine him being a positive contributor than it is Suppan. I think Suppan's best days are clearly behind him.

 

All of these guys are risky, but Byrnes is just one year away from his career year, and he has a history of rebounding. He's likely to be at least as productive as Cameron. He's also 3 years younger and doesn't strike out as much. Yeah, he hasn't played CF since 06, but he was moved to make room for Young who is a stud out there. Byrnes is adequate at best, but who else to the Brewers have if they don't overpay Cameron?

 

But I doubt Arizona does it. Not sure if they view Byrnes as a bad contract yet. In addition they already have Webb, Haren and Davis under contract and Johnson wants to come back. Throw in Max Scherzer and they have 5 good starters already.

[JohnBriggs12]

You make quality points endaround, but Johnson returning is no sure thing. He'd have to take a significant pay cut for Arizona to sign him so he might look elsewhere. As for Davis, his 1.53 WHIP would have him on my dead weight list at $8.75 million.

 

By the way endaround, you missed several guys on the White Sox:

 

Javier Vazquez: $11.5 million in 2009; $11.5 million in 2010 2008 numbers: 12-16, 4.67 ERA, terrible down the stretch and in playoffs. Sox version of Suppan

 

Nick Swisher: $5.3 million in 2009; $6.75 million in 2010; $9 million in 2011. 2008: .219/.332/.410. A guy who might be useful to Brewers as a switch hitter with OB skills who can play CF (though not well), but is prone to huge slumps and was awful down the stretch for Sox. Committing over $20 million to this guy is a huge risk.

 

Jose Contreras: $10 million in 2009 Best case scenario is a July return from achilles injury.

 

J

[endaround]

Davis had a mid 4 ERA and having that and a high whip is what he has done so I doubt Arizona is worried about a sub $9m pitcher for one year. Johnson likely would need to take a paycut but it sounds lie he's willing though that can of course change.

 

I considered Vazquez, thought he was just good enough that Sox would hope he returns to some form. But it could go either way.

 

Swisher I considered but given his salary doesn't really take off until 2011 anf thought the Sox would just hope this was a down year(he was good in 2007) but again not sold on it

 

Contreas I just assumed couldn't be moved due to injury.

[yoshii8]

I really like the idea of going after Javier Vazquez, he would be an outstanding pick up. I think Corey Hart, Rickie Weeks and possibly Bill Hall could all be of interest to the White Sox, they will need a 2b or SS, depends on where they play Alexei Ramirez, and a third baseman w/ Crede leaving. I've also heard they want more team speed. I'm not sure what Vazquez is worth right now, but would a Weeks, Hall for Vazquez deal be equal value? You could slot Vazquez as the #2 starter, and our rotation looks a lot better. His numbers will likely look a lot better in the NL, and pitching in less of a hitters park.

 

The only problem I have w/ this trade is that we now don't have a 2b or 3b, and we would be giving up on Weeks. If we could somehow sign Orlando Hudson, and trade for a decent lefty 3b (Blaylock, Figgins), I would like this a lot better.

 

As for Suppan, I don't see a team trading for him w/out us having to pick up some salary. Although Millwood would be interesting.

[fleehaw]

Willis intrigues me. After acquiring Mota last offseason, I heard that the coaches/front office spotted a problem with his mechanics as opposed to earlier in his career which is why he had poor results. They tweaked it in the preseason and Mota pitched well above expectations IMO. Perhaps Willis would provide another example of this. He's younger so it's possible he could rebound unlike Suppan who appears to be winding down. I'd trade Willis for Suppan and considering the park Detroit plays in, they might go for it also.

[JohnBriggs12]

Davis had a mid 4 ERA and having that and a high whip is what he has done so I doubt Arizona is worried about a sub $9m pitcher for one year. Johnson likely would need to take a paycut but it sounds lie he's willing though that can of course change.

 

I considered Vazquez, thought he was just good enough that Sox would hope he returns to some form. But it could go either way.

 

Swisher I considered but given his salary doesn't really take off until 2011 anf thought the Sox would just hope this was a down year(he was good in 2007) but again not sold on it

 

Contreas I just assumed couldn't be moved due to injury.

I know quite a few Sox fans and they are ready to run Vazquez out of town. He's had one year with an ERA under 4.42 in his last 5 seasons. That's a lot to pay for a guy who'll be 33 next season and in 3 postseason starts has allowed 18 earned runs and 24 hits in 15 2/3 innings. No way do I take on that salary. If Suppan had his arm, you'd have quite a pitcher but Suppan doesn't and Vazquez has never achieved anything near his ability.

[sbrylski]

Vazquez has never achieved anything near his ability.

 

Recently, that is. Since leaving the Expos.

 

Vazquez is basically a right handed Capuano who has struggled recently with runners aboard. Lowish LOB% over the last 4 years.

[tigerbrew]

If the Blue Jays are willing, I wouldn't mind trading Suppan and Hall for Rolen.

[crewcrazy]

Might be a little early for some of these, because it could be that they just had a bad season this year:

 

Reds

SP Aaron Harang: $11M in '09, $12.5M in '10, $12.75M in '11 ($2M buyout). 6-17, 4.78 ERA, 35 HR allowed in 2008 -- it looks as though overuse may be catching up to him, and he's due a ton of cash over the next few years

 

SP Bronson Arroyo: $9.5M in '09, $11M in '10, $11M club option in '11 ($2M buyout). 15-11, 4.77 ERA, 29 HR allowed in 2008 -- not a horrible pitcher by any means, but that's a lot of money to give to a guy who's pretty average and was 31 this year. I guess like Suppan, at least you're guaranteed 200ish innings.

 

2B Brandon Phillips: $4.75M in '09, $6.75M in '10, $11M in '11, $12M club option in '12 ($1M buyout) -- slugging was up, OBP was down this year and his AVG dropped by about 20 points after signing a fat extension. Kind of hard to tell if it was just a down year for him, or if the Reds are going to be stuck paying $11M for a .310 OBP in a few years. Still not bad offensive production from 2B by any means, but he's still going to be guaranteed a lot of money those last couple years.

 

Angels

I think it's fair to add Torii Hunter right now. He may not have been bad this year, but his salary breakdown is kinda ugly, and he has a full NTC:

'09: $17.5M, '10: $18M, '11: $18M, '12: $18M

 

Cardinals

SP Chris Carpenter: $14M in '09, $14.5M in '10, $15M in '11, $15M club option in '12 -- for a guy who's pitched 21 innings combined the last two years. He's great when he's on the mound, but the Cards have been getting nothing for their money, and he's still dealing with nerve issues that might keep him out for parts of next season too.

 

SP Kyle Lohse -- he had a good year this year, but the extension he signed is bound to bite them in the butt, isn't it? $7.125M in '09, $8.875M in '10, $11.875M in '11 and '12. For Kyle Lohse. The guy who couldn't find work until the end of Spring Training. Seems a little crazy to me, but maybe he's finally figured it out.

[Roderick]

If the Blue Jays are willing, I wouldn't mind trading Suppan and Hall for Rolen.

I would think you would need to have incriminating pictures of the Blue Jay GM for them to go for this. But Billy hasn't been injured and would play the full season.

[Ennder]

I would love to see us go after Vazquez. I don't think Willis is any better than Suppan so not so much interested in that one.

[nate82]

What about Mike Lowell for the Red Sox. A .798 OPS for a 3B getting paid $12M in 09 and 10 is not a good contract. He is also regressing and there are better options for the Red Sox at 3B.

[dadofandrew]

What better options are there? Also, Lowell was injured much of the year, that may have affected his numbers.

[Brawndo the Thirst Mutilat]

Nick Swisher: $5.3 million in 2009; $6.75 million in 2010; $9 million in 2011. 2008: .219/.332/.410. A guy who might be useful to Brewers as a switch hitter with OB skills who can play CF (though not well), but is prone to huge slumps and was awful down the stretch for Sox. Committing over $20 million to this guy is a huge risk.

Swisher's BABIP this year was .251. His LD% was a career high 20.9%, so his BABIP would have been expected to be around .330. He'll likely have a huge rebound season next year. If the White Sox really view him as a guy worth dumping at those prices (not sure they do), sign me up.

[dadofandrew]

Agreed on Swisher. I doubt there's a match up, but I'd love to see him in CF through '11. I would guess it would take Bush or Villy. Maybe there's a way to expand it to include Vazquez...

[Postseason2006]

Astros

Ignoring the aging Carlos Lee:

 

I guess I am trying to figure what the comment was for this? Lee had terrific numbers again this past year.