The CC Watch... Latest: Who knows?

[tristarscoop]

I thhought CC really enjoyed his time in Cleveland as well?

The word on the street is pretty much the exact opposite. He was done there and they were glad to see him go. He supposedly wasn't well liked in the clubhouse or by the fans. That's all conjecture, and based on how great he was here, hard to believe, but when the trade happened, it was pretty consistently mentioned.

[rousieboy]

You know for all this "CC big money" talk, it is pretty interesting that he was viewed as someone only worth 2 additional victories (if you enjoy fancy schmancy stats then you know who you are...) when the trade was being initially debated...

 

Was that a bunch of baloney OR are those 2 additional victories really worth 15-20+million a year spread out over the course of the whole season...something stinks to high heaven...so boys...what is it...?

[Ennder]

You know for all this "CC big money" talk, it is pretty interesting that he was viewed as someone only worth 2 additional victories (if you enjoy fancy schmancy stats then you know who you are...) when the trade was being initially debated...

 

Was that a bunch of baloney OR are those 2 additional victories really worth 15-20+million a year spread out over the course of the whole season...something stinks to high heaven...so boys...what is it...?

2 victories for half a season so 4 wins over a replacement level pitcher for the season. 4 wins by one player is pretty darn huge.

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

In retrospect, the CC move probably contributed more than the 1.5-2 wins, however...do you really think CC's 2H performance is repeatble on a consistent basis over the course of a 6 year contract? He's a horse, no doubt...but that is asking quite a bit.

[Ennder]

CC started 17 games for the Brewers in the regular season and in 9 of them it is unlikely he had anything to do with the win. How many of those other 8 games would have been won without him is hard to say. The scores were...

 

3-2

3-0

4-2

4-3

3-2

4-3

4-2

3-1

 

Most likely we win close to half of the 4 run scored games and like 33% of the 3 run games even with McClung starting so that is roughly 3 more games where he didn't matter. So he really changed maybe 5 games and that is with him pitching way better than anyone could reasonably expect and that total could easily be 3 or 4 instead of 5, no way to know. Granted the rested bullpen etc helped as well but really expecting him to be worth more than 4-5 wins on average for a season is stretching things.

[rousieboy]

There are confounding variables with a pitcher's win in baseball...this isn't bowling or golf...

 

Is a Jamie Moyer win the same as a CC Sabathia win?

 

If so or if not what is the price tag on that victory and what percentage of payroll is it worth to you?

 

Please operationally define "Replacement level pitcher". I am consfused...Sheets didn't get replaced when CC came on...the whole point of taking on an ace midseason is to get your #5 outta there and your 4, 3, 2, 1 pitchers all move down a step...CC is more than 4 wins better than Seth McClung as a starter and if he is not then A) what did I see this year? B) Why are we even talking about big money for CC?

[rousieboy]

One could say that the 3-2, 4-3, 4-2 games of this world did not become unglued because he was pitching...remember some Mota and Gagne games that got outta hand in a hurry...yeah, the opposite of that.

 

Baseball is not played in the lab or in a fishbowl. Stats are great up to a point, but I would no sooner make those points about a game then I would about a jazz concert. Too, too many confounding variables from at bat to at bat let alone a series or a season.

 

Do you overpay or do you take the picks and move on...?

[reillymcshane]

You know for all this "CC big money" talk, it is pretty interesting that he was viewed as someone only worth 2 additional victories (if you enjoy fancy schmancy stats then you know who you are...) when the trade was being initially debated...

 

Was that a bunch of baloney OR are those 2 additional victories really worth 15-20+million a year spread out over the course of the whole season...something stinks to high heaven...so boys...what is it...?

The 2 extra victories was based - if I'm correct - on CC pitching more toward his recent numbers - an era from 3.00-3.50 - and not on coming in and throwing a 1.65 ERA ball for the rest of the year. While many predicted he'd do better (hitters unfamilar with him, no DH, etc.), no one expected him to do what he did.

 

His performance (I assume) wound up giving us more than the two predicted extra victories.

 

Also, and the stat folks can correct me, I believe the two extra victories is based upon the guy he is replacing - which means if CC had shown up, had a 3.00ish ERA instead of 1.65, he helps the team gets two more victories than if we'd not made the deal and instead started Seth McClung for the remainder of the year. Again, not sure if this is correct, but that's my thought.

[Mr QL]

Apparently the Yankees are having second thoughts about offering CC because of his "laid back" attitude and concerns on how he would handle playing in New York. I hope this is true.

 

I'm cool with a laid back guy. ;-)

[logan82]

rousieboy wrote:

Please operationally define "Replacement level pitcher".

Replacement level pitcher in most cases refers to a player who would put up stats around 75% of an average MLB starter I believe. That's what it means when people talk about VORP anyway.

 

Most estimates took into account the ERA we would expect versus the ERA of the pitcher CC was likely to replace and multiplied it by the number of starts CC was expected to make. Then they used the commonly accepted "10 runs equals one win" to come up with their estimate. Many even added some to account for a better arm in the pen and less bullpen innings.

[Ennder]

There has been a great deal of Suppan bashing lately, and much of it is deserved. His contract will certainly be an albatross for the next two seasons. However, Soup's career stats had him around a 4.50 ERA. He is getting older, which argues against this, but why can't he get back to his career norms? At that level he's a very viable #4 starter.

 

Suppan pitched pretty much exactly like his career rates until September when he was just terrible. My guess is his arm wasn't healthy in september but there is no way to know for sure. I would expect him to have something like a 4.50-4.75 ERA next year.

[BADGERJOBOB]

Is a Jamie Moyer win the same as a CC Sabathia win?

I don't think it is the same at all. CC pitched deep in a lot of games and saved our bullpen a lot of work. I would rather have a starting pitcher that goes 7 or 8 innings consistently than 5.

[clancyphile]

CC started 17 games for the Brewers in the regular season and in 9 of them it is unlikely he had anything to do with the win. How many of those other 8 games would have been won without him is hard to say. The scores were...

 

3-2

3-0

4-2

4-3

3-2

4-3

4-2

3-1

 

Most likely we win close to half of the 4 run scored games and like 33% of the 3 run games even with McClung starting so that is roughly 3 more games where he didn't matter. So he really changed maybe 5 games and that is with him pitching way better than anyone could reasonably expect and that total could easily be 3 or 4 instead of 5, no way to know. Granted the rested bullpen etc helped as well but really expecting him to be worth more than 4-5 wins on average for a season is stretching things.

Those five wins were the difference between the Brewers in the playoffs, with a chance to win it all, and watching the playoffs on TV.

[Ennder]

Those five wins were the difference between the Brewers in the playoffs, with a chance to win it all, and watching the playoffs on TV.

Yeah I can agree with that. Back when we made the trade I agreed it would probably be a 2-3 win upgrade but that easily could mean playoffs vs no playoffs so it was worth it. If he is a 3-5 win player next year that is likely the difference between making and missing the playoffs as well.

[rluzinski]

Suppan pitched pretty much exactly like his career rates until September when he was just terrible.

 

It isn't nearly as tidy as that. He had a terrible July, with only a 3.5 K/9 and a 9.43 ERA. His April wasn't very good either, with a 3.1 K/9 and a 5.19 ERA.

[Ennder]

It isn't nearly as tidy as that. He had a terrible July, with only a 3.5 K/9 and a 9.43 ERA. His April wasn't very good either, with a 3.1 K/9 and a 5.19 ERA.

 

 

That isn't really abnormal for Suppan though. His ERA jumps all over the place because he gives up so many hits and his K/9 hits under 5 a couple months each season. The biggest abnormality is the huge HR allowed numbers he had after his injury. He gave up 18 HR over his final 76.1 IP which is way higher than normal. My guess is the injury had something to do with his subnormal year.

 

Before the game he left with the elbow problem he had a 799 OPS against and 4.30 ERA. (.791 OPS against and 4.63 ERA for career)

From that game on he had a .900 OPS against and a 5.79 ERA. I think the two are probably related somewhat.

[rluzinski]

Over a half a season, a 3.0 ERA pitcher is around 2 wins better than a 4.75 ERA pitcher. So, that's about 4 wins over a season, which is a lot bigger than many apparently realize. If you think CC will have a 1.65 ERA and average 7-2/3 IP over 32 starts a year for years to come, he's worth $50+ mil a year.

[holybannana]

Over a half a season, a 3.0 ERA pitcher is around 2 wins better than a 4.75 ERA pitcher. So, that's about 4 wins over a season, which is a lot bigger than many apparently realize. If you think CC will have a 1.65 ERA and average 7-2/3 IP over 32 starts a year for years to come, he's worth $50+ mil a year.

Yeah, 4 wins is huge. Usually its the difference between making and not making the playoffs for good teams.

 

I agree about CC's pitching too. We got the VERY best out of him and it is impossible for anyone to sustain that over the course of a year for 5 years or whatever.

[southpaw121505]

I agree that there is no way he sustains his success of the second half over a long period of time, but in both milwaukee and cleveland he was worked hard. Obviously in milwaukee with working on short rest that many times but even in cleveland he pitched every 5th day regardless of off days, now I know that's not some strange thing. But, he said coming to milwaukee was nice to get occassional off days and extra day rest when the team stuck with a 5 man even with off days. When there's no pressure of using him while you have him and you know you have him for years there is no way you ride him into the ground like that. This has nothing to do with the Brewers odds of getting him, I just dont agree that hes battered and used goods like some people believe.

[Invader3K]

Does anyone have any solid info on how insurance would work for a potential contract like CC might get? I mean, theoretically the Brewers should be able to get some financial protection if they were to sign him to a long term deal, and he did sustain an injury that kept him on the DL for an extended period, right?

[mothershipconnection]

Anyone looking back and laughing at the 2 win prediction is like looking back at last year and laughing at someone who predicted the Patriots would only win 12 games. There was nothing at the time that indicated Sabathia would be as dominant as he ended up being, so the predictions were based, as all predictions are, on what he HAD done, not a magical glimpse into the future and what he would do. Last year he won the Cy Young on a 2.76 ERA in the second half, so to accurately predict 1.56 would require magic.

[logan82]

If he is a 3-5 win player next year that is likely the difference between making and missing the playoffs as well.

 

How long does he stay that 3-5 win player though? If we start letting other players go, like Cameron for instance, it starts to eat into the wins CC would add and doesn't make it worth signing him, especially at $20M+a year.

[kramnoj]

I believe insurance frequency on player contracts has decreased with the recent rise of the salaries. The last I heard, only the first 3 years could be insured without paying exorbitant premiums. If a player like CC goes down, the money spent isn't really the loss, it was going to be spent anyway and you can't always get a replacement by just spending recovered money. The biggest loss is the productivity, and that's not something that can be recovered through insurance.

[logan82]

kramnoj wrote:

The biggest loss is the productivity, and that's not something that can be recovered through insurance.

Like Gagne's contract this year. Even if we had the $10M we paid him back, there wasn't anyone we could go out and pay that $10M to to improve the team.

[rluzinski]

Sheets was 26 when the Brewers got their insurance on him. And if you remember, it was still a pain for them to collect, as he had to miss a certain amount of days. So it really was catastrophic insurance for major injuries at resulted in substantial time lost.

 

CC will be 29 and will be signing something like a 6 year deal. Even if it will be possible to have those 6 years insured, the premiums will most likely be very high. It's not like insurance is a get-out-of-jail-free card. The higher the risk, the more the insurance will cost you.