The CC Watch... Latest: Who knows?

[kramnoj]

If I had to construct a deal that was 5/$140M, I think this is how I would do it.

 

2009: $20M

2010: $20M

2011: $25M

2012: $25M

2013: $32M

 

That gets you to $122M guaranteed, and leaves about $3-4M per year to split among incentives like IP, GS and Cy Young voting and CC is only 32 in the last year of his contract. Also, interestingly enough, 2013 would be the first year of the new TV contract.

 

There are certainly all kinds of risks. The Brewers do this, and they really won't be able to sign any significant FA over the next 5 years. Pretty much every other dollar is going to go to retaining the stars that are currently in the system. The Brewers would be heavily relying on Escobar, Gamel, Jeffress, Salome, etc to be average or better Major leaguers from 2010-2013. They would need the current youngish players on the team to be better than they were this year.

 

It's a huge gamble. In order for it to payoff, CC basically has to be Pedro Prime, except always healthy. I don't think any team has consistently devoted so much payroll room to one player and had it work out. Chances are that it wouldn't work out, too much of a chance of injury to CC, too much of a chance that CC regresses to being just a good-very good pitcher instead of the best pitcher in the league for 5 years, too much of a chance that other players on the team get injured or don't pan out, and the Brewers don't have resources to replace them. But the best chance the Brewers have of being a team that can contend for 90 wins a year is probably with CC on the team.

[And That]

The Brewers simply have no business paying $28 mil per year for anyone, up to and including Albert Pujols. If Attanasio is seriously considering this, he's beginning to seriously worry me. That's a helluva gamble.

 

Then again, my net worth isn't in the hundreds of millions.

[HOF4canrake]

I have a feeling that as the good vibes of getting to the playoffs wear off and he, along with Melvin and Co. start evaluating everything, the monetary ceiling will come down a little bit. Of course, you never know. Attanasio sometimes seems like he'd rather play the role of "fan" first...which is fine by me if it helps us win.

[Invader3K]

I love Sabathia, but maybe we would be better off having three good starting pitchers for that money instead of just one. It just doesn't sound very realistic, even for a team like the Yankees. You might as well get a few extra years on that contract for that kind of money. Johan Santana's deal is 7 years 136 million. In this economy, I would imagine the going rate would be lower, right?

 

Yes, but these days, what three good starting pitchers will you get for 25 million? I bet the terms "overpaid" come up for all of them.

[TheCrew07]

The point is that you can pay 3 Yo types through arbitration for 1 Sabathia... I get what you're saying, but it's hard to claim Arby pitchers are overpaid.

[southpaw121505]

I'm so torn on this but I wanted to chime in on the thread. The biggest factors to me seem obious, but are: how much will Mark A offer and how much will he raise the overall payroll to field a team around the big fella. I think it's POSSIBLE to field a competitive team with one player taking up ~1/3 of the payroll, but not easy, and makes the job of the GM that much harder. All 24 other spots are that much more important to get value. It would be vital to have a number of pre arby guys that can contribute in a major way, quickly.

 

To me it all boils down to one question. Do you want more flexibility in building the rest of the roster at multiple spots or do you want to be committed to relying on a ton of young, cheap guys? The difference is instead of having the Suppans, Riskes, Gagnes, and Camerons of the world you'd rely on the Stetters, Dillards, Rottinos, and Kaplers of the world. I think the latter can be done and still have a competitive team, it just leaves smaller margin for error for DM and forces to you rely on more guys that arent exactly sure bets.

 

The more I think about it the more I see it as being possible. Along with Sabathia, you'd have Gallardo, Parra and McClung very cheap and Bush wont cost a ton. If you could somehow get rid of Soup that would help but who knows if thats possible. Also, in the very near future you have a ton of talent in the minors that will likely be able to take over positions in the majors as you trade our current major league position players for prospects or cheap talent for more reloading. I know you can't count on your prospects before they hatch, but you have Gamel, Esbobar, Salome, and Green likely to be starters at some point and guys like Lucroy, Cain, Gillespie, and eventually Lawrie that will likely be worthy of a roster spot at the least. It's extremely unlikely to be able to have a ton of 1st and 2nd year guys in your lineup and be productive enough to go all the way, but I wouldn't say it's impossible.

 

Verdict: Could be done and still be competitive, but would be difficult. I wouldn't mind taking a stab at it especially with how our system produces talent. At the same time, I wouldn't be upset if they get outbid. I'm not saying it absoutely should be done, but I think it could be.

[Invader3K]

The point is that you can pay 3 Yo types through arbitration for 1 Sabathia... I get what you're saying, but it's hard to claim Arby pitchers are overpaid.

 

You can't pay three "Yo types" because they won't be available.

[TheCrew07]

Well lets play what if...

 

If Parra continues to mature he's a top of the rotation pitcher and then there's always the possibility of acquiring another young pitcher via trade. Yo, Parra, random pitcher would be 3 pitchers... all at approximately the same place in their careers. I'm not saying it's going to happen, but it's not as far fetched as you make it seem, there's plenty of names from around the league that could be inserted into that random player slot, that idea is addressed daily on this site.

[RockCoCougars]

The more I think about it the more I see it as being possible. Along with Sabathia, you'd have Gallardo, Parra and McClung very cheap and Bush wont cost a ton.

This is a great point, and it's something I've thought of as well. If somehow the team could dump Suppan, paying half of his salary, they could give C.C $25 million or so and would still have "only" somewhere around $35 million invested in their starting staff. This would only be about 40% of the payroll for the starting staff which actually seems pretty reasonable to me. I gotta think that is pretty close to what they paid this year with Suppan and Sheets at around $10 million each and about 5-6 million for half a year of C.C.

 

I guess the key is dumping Suppan on somebody without having to take a bad contract back. Even if they pay half his salary, it's going to be tough to find a taker.

[dlk9s]

Here are the free agent starting pitchers this offseason. If anyone wants to try to get 3 good pitchers from this group for the same price as one CC, best of luck. Obviously, trades could be worked out, too, but I'm just looking at FA's here. Age is in parentheses.

 

Kris Benson (33)

A.J. Burnett (32) - can opt out after '08 season

Paul Byrd (38)

Roger Clemens (46)

Matt Clement (33)

Bartolo Colon (36)

Ryan Dempster (32)

Shawn Estes (36)

Josh Fogg (32)

Freddy Garcia (33)

Jon Garland (29)

Tom Glavine (43)

Mike Hampton (36)

Mark Hendrickson (35)

Livan Hernandez (34)

Orlando Hernandez (43)

Jason Jennings (30)

Randy Johnson (45)

John Lackey (30) - $9MM club option for '09 with a $0.5MM buyout

Jon Lieber (39)

Braden Looper (34)

Rodrigo Lopez (33) - club option for '09

Derek Lowe (36)

Greg Maddux (43)

Pedro Martinez (37)

Sergio Mitre (28)

Jamie Moyer (46)

Mark Mulder (31) - $11MM club option for '09 with a $1.5MM buyout

Mike Mussina (40)

Carl Pavano (33) - $13MM club option for '09 with a $1.95MM buyout

Brad Penny (31) - $8.75MM club option for '09 with a $2MM buyout

Odalis Perez (32)

Oliver Perez (27)

Andy Pettitte (37)

Sidney Ponson (32)

Mark Prior (27)

Kenny Rogers (44)

Glendon Rusch (34)

C.C. Sabathia (28)

Curt Schilling (42)

Ben Sheets (30)

John Smoltz (42)

Tim Wakefield (42) - perpetual $4MM club option

Kip Wells (32)

Randy Wolf (32)

 

From http://www.mlbtraderumors...7/12/2009-mlb-free-a.html

[TheCrew07]

Here are the free agent starting pitchers this offseason. If anyone wants to try to get 3 good pitchers from this group for the same price as one CC, best of luck.

Who said anything about acquiring 3 FA pitchers? I don't even want to sign 1.

[dlk9s]

Here are the free agent starting pitchers this offseason. If anyone wants to try to get 3 good pitchers from this group for the same price as one CC, best of luck.

Who said anything about acquiring 3 FA pitchers? I don't even want to sign 1.

One or more people in this thread have mentioned their preference of not signing CC and using the money on multiple starting pitchers (the number 3 is a number I seem to remember). Like I said in the post above, I understand that established pitchers can be had via trade, too, but most people seem to be thinking about FA's because it's harder to figure out how to put together a trade.

[kramnoj]

Who said anything about acquiring 3 FA pitchers? I don't even want to sign 1.

 

Ajay's post: I love Sabathia, but maybe we would be better off having three good starting pitchers for that money instead of just one.

 

The Brewers probably would be better off having 3 good starting pitchers for this kind of money, except that this kind of money probably only gets 2 starting pitchers in this offseason, and it may not even get 2 good pitchers, it may only get averagish pitchers. This of course assumes that you can get these pitchers to sign in Milwaukee, which can't be an assumption.

 

That is the huge attraction of signing CC. He may be the best FA pitcher to be available for the foreseeable future, and he really enjoyed his couple of months that he had with this team, and it will give the Brewers some kind of advantage in retaining him. The advantage may be small, and it sounds like the only discount that the Brewers will get will be in years, not dollars, but it is an advantage that no other team that is likely to pursue him in FA this offseason will have.

[pretendastronaut]

Much as I like Parra's future with the club, I don't think you can consider him to be a Yo caliber of pitcher. So far he appears to be shaping up to be a fantastic #3, or an okay #2. If we're to fill up with 3 Yo type pitchers, I would have to consider Parra the #3 on that list. It's going to be just as expensive, in terms of what we have to give up, to get another Yo type to slot into #2 from another team in trade, IMO.

[rluzinski]

I thhought CC really enjoyed his time in Cleveland as well?

[Ennder]

Much as I like Parra's future with the club, I don't think you can consider him to be a Yo caliber of pitcher. So far he appears to be shaping up to be a fantastic #3, or an okay #2. If we're to fill up with 3 Yo type pitchers, I would have to consider Parra the #3 on that list. It's going to be just as expensive, in terms of what we have to give up, to get another Yo type to slot into #2 from another team in trade, IMO.

If that was in response to my post I full agree. I was just saying that we need 3 guys better than Dave Bush and we have 2 of them in Gallardo and Parra. If I had to label those guys I'd call Gallardo a good #2 and Parra a good #3. Bush is a good #4 and Suppan is a #5. We could use that ace to be our #1 for sure but even another #2 or #3 is good enough to make it a good rotation.

[Invader3K]

If the team is betting on Yo and Parra instantly becoming the equivalent of Sheets and Parra, then it will be a long season. I know that won't be the case, but I think the strategy of hoping the young guys step up to perform like seasoned MLBers needs to end pretty quick, both with the offense and defense.

[jhart05]

If the team is betting on Yo and Parra instantly becoming the equivalent of Sheets and Parra, then it will be a long season.

 

 

Did you mean to say "the equivalent of Sheets and Sabathia"?

 

I doubt the Brewers are, but I do think many fans think this.

[Roderick]

I can't imagine paying 25+mil a year for one guy on a team with an 80mil payroll (at most).

The Brewers were at least $77M this year before picking up the contracts of Durham and CC for half a year. $90M is the number most thrown out as next year's payroll budget.

 

 

I think the Brewers would have to be able to dump Suppan (or Hall if they trade for a cheap 3B) to sign CC. Assuming the limited no-trade is not an issue and assuming Suppan has no positive value to anyone at a $12M pricetag - we'd have to kick in to get rid of him. Instead of paying part of Suppan's salary (the norm in MLB), why not trade a prospect with Suppan to get a return of a token minor leaguer? What level prospect would you have to give up? Downsides (other than emptying the cupboard)? It seems to me you would have to trade with someone that has a strong enough GM that he can deal with the fans ripping on him for trading for a $12M bullpen guy, when the guy that made the trade worthwhile is in the minors for a year or two.

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

There has been a great deal of Suppan bashing lately, and much of it is deserved. His contract will certainly be an albatross for the next two seasons. However, Soup's career stats had him around a 4.50 ERA. He is getting older, which argues against this, but why can't he get back to his career norms? At that level he's a very viable #4 starter. I think Soup was hurt late in the season...that was a major factor in his deterioration. If he is reasonably healthy next season...he should be an ok 4th starter.

 

Starting an injured, ineffective "Big-game" pitcher in game four, paying him $12mm each of the next two years...I can't justify that...but it doesn't seem out of the question that Soup starts 32 games and has a mid-4's ERA next year.

[Invader3K]

If the team is betting on Yo and Parra instantly becoming the equivalent of Sheets and Parra, then it will be a long season.

 

 

Did you mean to say "the equivalent of Sheets and Sabathia"?

 

I doubt the Brewers are, but I do think many fans think this.

Whoops, yes, I meant Sheets and Sabathia.

 

It seems like a lot of fans are thinking like this...it sort of seems like the mentality I've seen on this board the last couple seasons is that we can keep expecting our youngsters to step up and perform at a high level, almost immediately. As another example, people keep putting Gamel and Escobar into projected lineups for '09, when neither barely have any AAA experience. Sometimes a guy can come in and contribute right away (Braun, Fielder, Hardy, etc), but this is more the expection than the rule. It's especially difficult when it comes to starting pitching. Neither Gallardo or Parra have ever pitched close to 200 innings in a season, so if you're banking on one of them becoming the "stopper" for 2009, I think it's going to be a rough year.

 

I guess it's one thing if you assume 2009 will be a sort of "step back" or "rebuilding year". I really hope that after tasting the post season for the first time in 26 years, the Brewers do not go that route.

[EbbaStClaire]

One of the problems with this discussion is the need for 4 more starters of one sort or another not just one in addition to Gallardo, Parra, Bush, and Suppan. Last year for various reasons the Brewers used 8 different starters while the league average was greater than 10 starters per team. Of course Villanueva and McClung might be considered spot starters if they were in the bullpen but some people think of McClung as next years closer. No one on the Nashville staff looked like a major league starter and on Huntsville staff only Brae Wright might be considered a very long long-shot. I believe Jeffress needs at least one more minor league season. The addition of CC would be terrific but you still need more potentially good or at the very least stopgap starters but how many of us want to see a clone of Zach Jackson starting a game and still believe the Brewers are in the playoff hunt. In my view Doug Melvin has a tough job. Free agency, trades and re-signing their own players all have to be considered.

[TheCrew07]

There has been a great deal of Suppan bashing lately, and much of it is deserved. His contract will certainly be an albatross for the next two seasons. However, Soup's career stats had him around a 4.50 ERA. He is getting older, which argues against this, but why can't he get back to his career norms?

I would guess because of our suckitude on defense and his stuff was never that great to begin with and may be getting worse. His control just wasn't good, which doesn't give me a warm and fuzzy regarding his future.

[clancyphile]

Re-signing Sheets and Sabathia ought to be priority one.

 

Sheets may be cheaper, but Sabathia would be the Reggie White-type thing the Brewers would really need. Sabathia-Sheets-Gallardo-Parra-Suppan/Bush would be the best option.

 

Trading Suppan in a salary dump might not be a bad idea.

[BADGERJOBOB]

The addition of CC would be terrific but you still need more potentially good or at the very least stopgap starters but how many of us want to see a clone of Zach Jackson starting a game and still believe the Brewers are in the playoff hunt.

We have a better chance of being in the playoff hunt with CC as our ace and trotting a Zach Jackson clone every 5th day than we do if we don't have a certified legit ace and have 2 Zach Jackson clones in our staff. If we want to contend for a playoff spot, we need to bring in a high end pitcher next year, I.e. a 1 or 2. If we want to take a step back towards mediocrity, than lets pony up $12-13 million and get another Suppan for our staff. He pitched great these last 2 years.http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/ohwell.gif