The CC Watch... Latest: Who knows?

[Hate those Rodents]

Quite honestly, we can cut cost so many ways. Now people will be against a lot of this but here goes my cost cutting, still be a playoff team idea.

 

1) Let Cameron's 10 mil walk. He's good, but we need to pay CC. Move Braun or Hart to center. Insert Gamel or Kapler at the other OF position. Gwynn could even play CF.

2) Go with Lamb at 3B at least as part of a platoon. Could even play Gamel here. Either way, it's cheap and should be better than last year.

3) Hall stays as a supersub.

4) Bullpen is Coffey, McClung, Riske, Stetter, Shouse, Dillard, Villaneuva (don't spend money here either, have faith in younger/cheaper guys).

 

If you essentially use these ideas, we don't need to sign ONE other player outside of the system. Yes, players will get raises. But, this brings back almost the same team with playoff experience and youth that will only improve through the year.

 

Resign CC and look for answers at other places from within I guess would be my off-season plan in a nutshell.

[Ennder]

I know this is a different sport, but I believe it applies. Ron Wolf has been quoted saying that he would never overpay for "good" players, but would pay whatever it takes for the "great" or elite player. I would put Sabathia in the elite category. I know that the financial situations are different, but if you sign him for six years at $130 million and the brewers are playing for a meaningful september (playoff contention) in five of those years is it worth it? I would think so, but I don't know how to really measure his financial value.

 

I would gladly overpay for an elite hitter, just don't want to for an elite pitcher. The odds of Sabathia staying healthy for the next 6 years are extremely low. Only 8 pitchers in all of baseball have pitched 200+ innings each of the last 3 years. Only 15 have pitched 200+ innnings each of the last 2 years. You take it out to 6 years and the number was something like 2 or 3. He is overweight and has been overworked back to back years so I don't like his odds of being one of the rare ones that stay healthy.

 

If we blow our wad on CC we'll probably be happy with the deal for 2-3 years and be regretting it for 3-4.

[JJHardy7]

How soon could the Brewers sign CC? I think the first few days he can sign with them will be a pretty strong indication if he'll be back or not.

[tristarscoop]

If the Brewers want to remain a playoff caliber team, CC is a must.

This is my biggest point of contention. Nothing the Brewers said or did last offseason or throughout this season has given anyone any reason to believe that's the case. In fact, the rhetoric for the past 9 months or so was expressly to the contrary.

 

This team and it's management, from day one of the 07 off season, made it quite clear that 08 was now or never, do or die and any number of other cliches. The first time I wrote about it in my blog was at the end of February on 08. From Yost to Melvin and even Attanasio to an extent, the prevailing mantra was about this season, next year be damned. This philosophy was clear throughout the season, from the signing of CC - when every article about the possibility mentioned that Mark A has made it clear that NOW is the time to go for it - on through the firing of Yost and the promoting of Sveum.

 

It feels, to an extent, like Mark A, et al changed their mind about this now and are looking at CC and suddenly, after all managerial moves in the "Now or Never" direction have skidded to a halt and are trying to change course and I'm not sure I agree with that.

[Fear The Chorizo]

I think the Brewers will have to let CC walk and graciously accept the draft comp picks - there's no way the players' union will want Sabathia taking a discount, he's THE marquee pitching FA this offseason. If he takes less money than what the market offers to stay in Milwaukee, guys like Suppan stop getting bloated contracts for being average. It would make all of us happy if he does pitch for the Brewers next season at a price the organization can handle, but I just don't see it being realistic.

 

CC was as big a reason as any why the Brewers made the playoffs this year, but they simply can't give him a 5-6 year deal. For small market teams, it's not necessarily the yearly amount of the contract that can cripple a franchise, it's the length of the contract. I would much rather take the annual amount they'd have to spend on CC to go out and sign 2 starters for less years (Lowe, Burnett, Sheets are possibilities) or take on salary via trade. Time's also running out before guys like Gallardo and Parra will be getting significant raises via arby, and they should be the organization's priority to sign to contracts similar to what Sheets got 4 seasons ago if they have healthy and productive 2009 seasons.

 

As much as I'd love for the Brewers to have CC next season, the only way I'd be able to stomach the contract would be if it were a 3-4 year deal - if I'm Mark A. and want to sign him, I'd offer that length of contract for more dollars per season than what other teams will have on the table and hope for the best.

[MBHA]

I admire the ownership taking a chance this past year and feel bad that they were unable to field the team they wanted (Sheets, Kapler) down the stretch and in the playoffs as I feel that if both were healthy that they had a good chance to have beaten Philadelphia. However, the model for this franchise has to be build through the farm system, make trades only when it makes sense, and add complimentary free agents as you can afford it. It has to be that model because the Milwaukee/Wisconsin market can only afford to support a salary structure at a certain level, and unfortunately at this point that does not include 20+ million dollar a year players. Sponsorships and media dollars only go so far in this market even with revenue sharing dollars. Considering the players who are arbitration elligible and those with multi-year contracts that are due significant increases, to even consider Sabathia, ticket prices would need to be increased drastically and that is always very unpopular.

The Sabathia thing was a feel good story for part of this season and it was an enjoyable ride. But this is business side of the sport and for every good vibe he felt about the city and team, another playoff contender will offer him $1.5 or more for every dollar the Brewers can offer and that can make you forget those vibes pretty easily and warm up to the new surroundings.

[kramnoj]

How soon could the Brewers sign CC? I think the first few days he can sign with them will be a pretty strong indication if he'll be back or not.

The Brewers and CC could sign now if they want. I think there's a guideline where teams aren't supposed to announce hiring and firings during the playoffs so it's possible that a deal could be done and it wouldn't be officially announced until after the WS, but I don't think anything that big could stay secret that long. I believe there is a window after the WS where teams have exclusive negotiating rights before full FA starts. Certainly if FA begins and CC isn't signed, it wouldn't be likely that he would have chosen to stay.

 

BTW, on the D-List this morning, Trenni said she heard from a friend in Vegas that they now have the odds of CC signing with the Brewers at 5-1. On Sunday it had been 100-1. Now, it's possible that Vegas has sources that have led them to change their odds, or some people could have placed so much money at the long odds that Vegas had to change just to cover themselves. I'm no gambling expert, but I thought it was interesting to hear.

[bcf5575]

I am pretty torn on signing CC. I would love to have him as a brewer long term. he is a very good pitcher, seems like a great guy - the kind of player that I would love watching take the mound every 5th day. I also think that signing him would give the crew a better sense of legitimacy around the league when it comes to getting other FA to come here (not top of the line guys because to be honest we couldnt afford them if CC signed, but the 2nd tier guys that come in to fill a hole for a year or 2). It would be similar to what Reggie White did for packers back in the 90's.

 

BUT, that is a lot of money. If turns into a bust, it will CRIPPLE the team for many years. A team like milwaukee can not afford to miss on a player and a contract like this. I am not sure it is worth the risk.

 

 

i think that I would love to see him in a brewer uniform next year, but will be happy and relieved if/when he signs elsewhere...

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

Could signing CC be like the Reds signing Griffey? CC is everything he's cracked up to be...no doubt, but 25% of the payroll to one player? He could be awesome for another 5-6 years, but we may not be able to put a team around him.

 

I'd also like us to extend guys like Prince & Hardy out beyond their arby years ala Braun. We also have holes to fill that we may not be able to do with our minor league players. 3B is a gaping hole. I believe Weeks and Hart will be able to improve next year, but if they don't, changes may be needed there as well. The Brewers have gotten themselves to a point where they are more mid-market than small market...kudos to management and the city for their support. That does mean they can afford basically anyone that they want including CC...but they can't afford everyone they want.

 

CC won't take much of a discount to play here. The Brewers need to project a way to get the payroll to north of $100 million over the next few years and be profitable at that level to afford CC. I'm not privy to their financial statements, but I just don't see that happening.

[benji]

I don't think the 200-250 innings on Sabathia are the same as they are on Oswalt, Lincecum or even Sheets. Obviously odds are against him or any pitcher being healthy for six more years and it would be a huge risk if they were to sign him. I like his odds of being effective for the next six years more than most despite his physical features. I say that partly because of what i perceive to be his mental makeup.

 

If I were an owner I certainly wouldn't want to risk the franchise "mental makeup" though. The owners have to decide if the risk of signing him and potential financial benefits of signing him are worth the risk. I would love to have him for three years, but I don't see that as reality. It is hard for me to say if I am for or against signing him because I don't know how it would effect the rest of the make up of the team either way. My own personal guess is that we don't sign him and stay around an 84-88 win team for the next four years. If we sign him there is probably a small window to win over 90 games and potentially a championship, but also with injury be below .500.

[Ennder]

I'm a firm believer in the PAP system and using it to judge the future of pitchers. Here are pitchers who rated 100k+ on the system over the past 4 years

 

2005 PAP - Livan, Zambrano, Prior

2006 PAP - Livan, Zambrano, Harang, Willis, Schmidt, Arroyo

2007 PAP - Matsuzaka, Zambrano

2008 PAP - Lincecum, Sabathia

 

Prior and Schmidt are more or less out of baseball now. The rest of those players spent some tmie on the DL this year and/or were ineffective for big chunks of time. Personally I think Lincecum will have had major surgery before he even hits free agency. I don't really like the idea of Sabathia, especially if we plan on pushing him so he makes that list again next year.

[brewerguy71]

I disagree about Lincecum.

 

His preparation is already a thing of awe among doctors and coaches. There are numerous articles written about his work out routine. He puts so little stress on his arm that I would be shocked if he ever did develop arm problems. Back problems maybe, but definitely not arm. This kid is a once in a lifetime type of player.

[Ennder]

I disagree about Lincecum.

 

His preparation is already a thing of awe among doctors and coaches. There are numerous articles written about his work out routine. He puts so little stress on his arm that I would be shocked if he ever did develop arm problems. Back problems maybe, but definitely not arm. This kid is a once in a lifetime type of player.

Of course they said the exact same thing about Prior back in 2005...

[BADGERJOBOB]

If you want to win and make the playoffs, your going to have to spend the money to get better pitching. I don't see us making the playoffs with the likes of Yo, Parra, Bush and anyone else in the system as our 4 and 5. Its a weak pitching staff. If we want to be a .500 team, great stay status quo.

 

No matter what, you can't predict injuries. Yes, CC could be this Brewer generations Teddy but I would rather spend the extra money and get a legit ace than spend 2/3's of the money on a potential number 3 starter who has just as good a chance of getting hurt as CC and has no where near the chance of being great. Our farm system has far more better position players than it does pitchers. We have the talent in the minors to bring up these cheap, productive position players to supplant a potential great pitching staff. Yes that might mean letting players like Hart, Weeks, Prince and JJ go but we do have some very good options in Cain, Green, Gamel and Escobar. THe stage is set. Do we want really want to go walk down the paths of Kansas City and Oakland or play with the big boys.

[rousieboy]

CC stays if Mark A gives him a percentage of the ownership--think Lemieux--otherwise the Brewers will be outta the conversation in the first 10 minutes...

[markedman5]

Players cannot have ownership according to MLB rules.

 

 

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3033203

[Invader3K]

Players cannot have ownership according to MLB rules.

 

 

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3033203

 

Yeah, I wish this would quit getting brought up. You'd think everyone would know this by now, especially after all the "The Cubs are going to make A-Rod a part owner" talk last year.

[rousieboy]

Then we are out of the conversation in the first ten minutes...sorry for not knowing that specific rule, I didn't follow the Cubs/ARod talk.

[Brewer Fever]

BTW, on the D-List this morning, Trenni said she heard from a friend in Vegas that they now have the odds of CC signing with the Brewers at 5-1. On Sunday it had been 100-1. Now, it's possible that Vegas has sources that have led them to change their odds, or some people could have placed so much money at the long odds that Vegas had to change just to cover themselves.

 

I'm thinking Mark A. had an accomplice place a cool million on the Brewers signing CC at 100-1. The $100 million he could ensure he'd get for that wager would go a long ways towards paying CC's contract.

[Baldkin]

I can't imagine paying 25+mil a year for one guy on a team with an 80mil payroll (at most).

 

I don't think the team could win, no matter how good CC was at that point. You couldn't afford any "Mistake" signings in free agency. Especially with our core group about to start making WAY more than they have been, it would shock me if a deal got done.

[rousieboy]

If CC pitched like CC, played first on his off days like Fielder, and kicked like Gus the mule then...yes, 20+ million on a roster of 80mil would be reasonable.

 

One line of thinking is that once Sheets and CC walk it will be easier to resign oneself to the idea of rebuilding and starting more rooks than just Escobar...this means trading for starting pitching.

 

Do you really want Bush, Suppan, Yo, Parra, and the 3 headed monster of Capuano/CVilla/McC as your opening day rotation?

[HOF4canrake]

I have worked in the Milwaukee media for 5 years and have a handful of reputable sources. The word appears to be that Attanasio (not Melvin necessarily) is willing to commit 5 years, $140-142 million. He is not going to go beyond 5 years and the 5/$142mil is an absolute high barring option considerations and incentives. Again, not saying they will offer this, but may give an indication of how much they "might" want CC to stay. The interesting thing is, there is no indication as to what Melvin's ideas are.

[Hate those Rodents]

There's a chance Melvin isn't around much longer to even be a part of making a long term plan.

[AJAY]

I have worked in the Milwaukee media for 5 years and have a handful of reputable sources. The word appears to be that Attanasio (not Melvin necessarily) is willing to commit 5 years, $140-142 million. He is not going to go beyond 5 years and the 5/$142mil is an absolute high barring option considerations and incentives. Again, not saying they will offer this, but may give an indication of how much they "might" want CC to stay. The interesting thing is, there is no indication as to what Melvin's ideas are.

 

 

I love Sabathia, but maybe we would be better off having three good starting pitchers for that money instead of just one. It just doesn't sound very realistic, even for a team like the Yankees. You might as well get a few extra years on that contract for that kind of money. Johan Santana's deal is 7 years 136 million. In this economy, I would imagine the going rate would be lower, right?

[kramnoj]

If I had to construct a deal that was 5/$140M, I think this is how I would do it.

 

2009: $20M

2010: $20M

2011: $25M

2012: $25M

2013: $32M

 

That gets you to $122M guaranteed, and leaves about $3-4M per year to split among incentives like IP, GS and Cy Young voting and CC is only 32 in the last year of his contract. Also, interestingly enough, 2013 would be the first year of the new TV contract.

 

There are certainly all kinds of risks. The Brewers do this, and they really won't be able to sign any significant FA over the next 5 years. Pretty much every other dollar is going to go to retaining the stars that are currently in the system. The Brewers would be heavily relying on Escobar, Gamel, Jeffress, Salome, etc to be average or better Major leaguers from 2010-2013. They would need the current youngish players on the team to be better than they were this year.

 

It's a huge gamble. In order for it to payoff, CC basically has to be Pedro Prime, except always healthy. I don't think any team has consistently devoted so much payroll room to one player and had it work out. Chances are that it wouldn't work out, too much of a chance of injury to CC, too much of a chance that CC regresses to being just a good-very good pitcher instead of the best pitcher in the league for 5 years, too much of a chance that other players on the team get injured or don't pan out, and the Brewers don't have resources to replace them. But the best chance the Brewers have of being a team that can contend for 90 wins a year is probably with CC on the team.