The CC Watch... Latest: Who knows?

[fondybrewfan]

Interesting commentary on the Sabathia situation . . .

 

http://bleacherreport.com...s/77012-being-cc-sabathia

That is a very good article. I really hope CC picks Awesome Offices.

[markedman5]

"Am I way off? Am I breaking Negotiations 101 rules? "

 

In a word..yes.

 

Nobody takes the first offer so you have to start somewhere. If teams just made their best offer right from the start players wouldn't need agents.

[Ennder]

We lost Coco last year over 2mil. Hopefully we don't lose CC over 5mil per.

 

We didn't lose Coco over $2M, we lost Coco because he didn't want to return to the team. We made an offer and he accepted an offer of $2M extra from the Reds without even asking if we would match it.

 

Given the fact he fell apart in the 2nd half I can't say I'm sorry either. .817 OPS against and 4.94 ERA in the 2nd half last year.

[homer]

Agreed. The Reds will be regretting that contract in due time......maybe they already are.

[rluzinski]

Nobody takes the first offer so you have to start somewhere.

 

In fantasy football trades?

 

CC's agent has a pretty good idea what he thinks CC will get in free agency. I don't see what giving a lowball offer accomplishes. Ultimately, Melvin knows what he's willing to offer and CC knows what he's willing to accept. It's seem like you are suggesting that if Melvin offered 6 years and $150 mil, there's 100% chance that CC would ask for more. Just because he's suppsoed to. I don't buy it.

 

Lowballing only has a purpose (IMO) of making sure you don't offer him more than he'd be willing to take. I don't think that's going to be an issue here. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

 

I understand that many people would disagree with me. I'm just curious if there's actual evidence that purposely lowballing will end up with a more favorable outcome for the lowballer. Do business majors take a negotiating course or anything like that? This has to have been studied.

[splitterpfj]

"CC Sabathia has told friends he doesn't want to play in New York, and the Brewers are making a big push." -Peter Gammons

 

I don't think Sabathia leaving town is as "over" as some would have you believe.

[markedman5]

So your defintion of "lowballing" is any offer that he wouldn't take?

 

Look at it another way. If he takes the offer, without even considering what other teams might offer, isn't it likely that you overpaid and by alot?

 

 

I guess I just don't consider this "lowballing" him. I consider it a good faith first step in the negotiation process.

 

If CC wants to play here he will come back with another proposal and Melvin and company will have to decide if we are in the ball park or just wasting time.

[AJAY]

"CC Sabathia has told friends he doesn't want to play in New York, and the Brewers are making a big push." -Peter Gammons

 

You never know if Sabathia is using his friends to drive up the price the Yankees will have to pay.

[danzig6767]

"CC Sabathia has told friends he doesn't want to play in New York, and the Brewers are making a big push." -Peter Gammons

 

You never know if Sabathia is using his friends to drive up the price the Yankees will have to pay.

I don't see that mattering. Sabathia is clearly the best free agent pitcher on the market, the high interest by multiple teams will be enough to drive up offers made to CC.

[tigerbrew]

I hope DM's actual offer is better than the rumored $100M over 5 years.

[jjfanec]

I hope DM's actual offer is better than the rumored $100M over 5 years.

By the sound of the blog from from JSonline Melvin made a very serious bid. link He takes serious issue with the idea that it was just window dressing so I am guessing it is a pretty big deal that he offered.

[Ennder]

I don't really get it. 5 years/$115M would match Santana minus 1 year on the deal and Santana is a better pitcher. Not sure what people are expecting but a 5 year/$100M deal is probably the bottom end of expectations. It certainly isn't an insult. It might not be something Sabathia will take of course but it is far from a bad initial offer.

[splitterpfj]

I agree with Ennder on this one, there is absolutely nothing wrong with offering 100 million over five years. CC may hold out for more, etc, but that is hardly insulting, and it shows that Milwaukee is serious. If they had offered 60 million over three years, sure, that's a waste of time, but stepping up with a nine-figure contract is not going to make CC angry.

[Fatter than Joey]

I understand that many people would disagree with me. I'm just curious if there's actual evidence that purposely lowballing will end up with a more favorable outcome for the lowballer. Do business majors take a negotiating course or anything like that? This has to have been studied.

 

I agree Russ -- I think the negotiating that happens is in the no-trade clauses and that sort of thing. DM is not a moron and CC's agent is not stupid either. DM will not offer $30M total for 3 years, and then CC will counter with $300M for 6 years, back and forth etc....

 

My guess is that both sides know what the $$$/years should be -- there are tons of precedents -- the haggling I think, will come in the other things, buyouts, options, no-trade clauses, limited trade clauses, how/when the money is actually paid, etc...

 

If the Brewers make a weak/low initial offer -- that is only going to get more teams to throw their hats into the bidding.

[dlk9s]

I understand that many people would disagree with me. I'm just curious if there's actual evidence that purposely lowballing will end up with a more favorable outcome for the lowballer. Do business majors take a negotiating course or anything like that? This has to have been studied.

When I got my MBA, I did take a negotiations class. I can't really speak to the exact best way to conduct a baseball contract negotiation, as I have never experienced that, but in general, the goal of a good negotiator is to come up with a deal that both sides can accept happily. Obviously, it is unlikely that both parties will get every single thing that they want, but reasonable people wouldn't expect that to happen.

 

Many people think that you are supposed to try to destroy the other party in a negotiation, to get everything and give nothing. That's just not a good negotiation. If you play hardball too much and eventually "win" by getting just about everything you want without leaving anything for the other party, it is unlikely you will get any more business from them.

 

Now, things may be different in pro sports, as, with few exceptions, it seems like teams have no choice but to negotiate with the shark agents like Boras when trying to sign an elite player, regardless of how cutthroat that agent has been in the past.

 

As for "lowballing," it doesn't make sense to make an unrealistically low offer to start, but it also doesn't make sense to put all your cards on the table at the start, either. As long as the offer is reasonable (and $20 million per, while it might be a little low, is still reasonable in CC's case), it won't insult anybody. The Brewers don't know with 100% certainty that CC will want tons more than their first offer, especially if other aspects of the contract are attractive to him. There's no point in offering $25 million per year if he might be willing to take $20 or $22 million per year.

[MBHA]

Looking at it from Sabathia's side, why to limit your choices. Right now his choices are limited to Milwaukee, but in just a few days all 30 teams will have an opportunity to make an offer. He would be a fool to sign any contract before getting at least 3-5 offers, and the players association will be looking for that also to raise the bar for all other free agent pitchers.

 

And this bit about him having fun here seems a bit thin. He was here for all of 3 months and the team was winning so it should have been fun. Heck if he had been traded to LA, or another playoff team I'm thinking he would have had pretty much the same opinion.

 

I put his chances of signing with Milwaukee at less than 5%. Is there any baseball free agent of note in recent years who has not taken one of the two top offers made to him?

[hurricane3184]

Take it for what it is worth coming from an Australian site but

 

http://www.news.com.au/he...85,24605130-11088,00.html

 

A BIDDING war has started for US baseball pitcher CC Sabathia - and the opening offer is about $147 million.

 

It came from his current Major League Baseball club, Milwaukee Brewers, who want to keep the 28-year-old left-hander.

[Invader3K]

That article is weird. I have a hard time believing that.

 

Actually, I think I just figured it out...100 million USD would be roughly 145 million in Australian dollars. Maybe that's where the 147 figure comes from in their article.

[edod]

I think the 147 is the equivalent in Australian dollars.

[hurricane3184]

Yeah i just realized that haha.

[Diskono]

I understand that many people would disagree with me. I'm just curious if there's actual evidence that purposely lowballing will end up with a more favorable outcome for the lowballer. Do business majors take a negotiating course or anything like that? This has to have been studied.

 

I agree Russ -- I think the negotiating that happens is in the no-trade clauses and that sort of thing. DM is not a moron and CC's agent is not stupid either. DM will not offer $30M total for 3 years, and then CC will counter with $300M for 6 years, back and forth etc....

John Schuerholz' book had a few stories about contract negotiations, and that's pretty much the impression I got. The team and the player usually have a pretty clear idea about the money, but the big negotiating points are incentives, options, other clauses, etc.

[knowitall]

I think 100M is a lowball offer, not because it isn't a ton of money, but because it won't get him signed. CC will get more in a few days by at least two or three teams. I think the Brewers make token offers to simply appease the fan base so they can "wash their hands" and say they tried. It's more political than anything. Lets face it, the Brewers have not signed a top free agent in his prime - maybe ever. I don't know why we would expect that to change. We have done a few nice contract extensions, but not much with free agents. We just can't - or won't - not to go negative on them, because that can be said for tons of small market teams. We have to build from within and supplement with F/A role players. I would love to re-sign him, but we are what we are, and history usually repeats itself.

[JJHardy7]

I think the Brewers make token offers to simply appease the fan base so they can "wash their hands" and say they tried. It's more political than anything. Lets face it, the Brewers have not signed a top free agent in his prime - maybe ever. I don't know why we would expect that to change.

 

I really don't like this reasoning. $100 million is not a lowball offer IMO. I think we need to remember that the economy impacts baseball teams as well as other industries. Attendance and revenue is solid in baseball, but the uncertainty means that teams may not break the bank this off-season. $100 million is not a lowball offer if the years are 'right'. That's the key IMO.

[rluzinski]

I don't think it's fair to call 5/$100 a lowball offer but I don't think it's going to get much consideration from CC. He'll get that 6th year.

[DHonks]

To me it is a lowball offer. It's a fair offer, but it also is a starting point. If CC wants to stay, they'll negotiate higher if need be. But it's in CC's hands now